Dynamic Price Discrimination in Airlines

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1 Nicholas G. Rupp Joseph Meskey Department of Economics and Finance The University of Texas - Pan American Department of Economics East Carolina University EARIE European Association for Research in Industrial Economics Milan, Italy August 2014

2 Outline 1 Motivation Contribution and Intuition 2 Construction of the Summary Statistics 3 Static Pricing Equation Dynamic Pricing Equation 4

3 Motivation: Price dispersion Motivation Contribution and Intuition Price dispersion (Borenstein and Rose, 1994). Price dispersion with panels (Gerardi and Shapiro, 2009) Role of costly capacity and demand uncertainty (with Gan, 2007); price competition (with Lee, 2012); price discrimination (with Jindapon, 2010); systematic peak-load pricing; demand learning; asymmetric pricing. Intertemporal price dispersion (Gaggero and Piga, 2011). Dynamic price dispersion (Mantin and Koo, 2009). Nonlinear pricing (Hernandez and Wiggins, 2010). Intertemporal price discrimination and dynamic adjustment to stochastic demand (Williams, 2013).

4 Motivation: Price discrimination Motivation Contribution and Intuition Carriers exploit fences such as: Saturday-night-stayover. Advance purchase discounts. Minimum- and maximum-stay. Refundable tickets. Frequent flier miles. Blackouts. Volume discounts. Fare classes (e.g. coach, first class) Hour-of-day purchase. Airlines have the most sophisticated pricing systems in the world.

5 Contribution and Intuition Motivation Contribution and Intuition Explains how sellers offer tickets at different prices at different hours of the day. Unique data on posted prices collected every hour. Conditions for price discrimination to exist: Different valuation across consumer types. Prevent arbitrage. Business travelers (high types) have higher valuations than tourists (low types). Incentive compatibility constraint: Prevent high types from behaving as low types. Airlines set higher prices during office hours. As the proportion of business travelers increases the difference increases.

6 Construction of the Construction of the Summary Statistics Lowest available fare (consistent with Deneckere and Peck, 2012). Pick a single day: Thursday, July 12, Initially follows Stavins (2001), but with two key improvements: Panel. Keep track of price changes by the hour. One-way, non-stop, economy-class. Connecting passengers / sophisticated itineraries / legs. Uncertainty in the return portion of the ticket. Saturday-night-stayover / min- and max-stay. Fare classes (e.g. coach, first class). 230 flights. 60 days prior to departure. (1422 observations per flight) American Airlines, Alaska, JetBlue, Delta, Frontier, AirTran Airways, United, US Airways, and Virgin America,

7 Summary Statistics Construction of the Summary Statistics Table: Summary statistics (1) (2) (3) (4) VARIABLES mean sd min max Fare: Whole sample ,288 0 Adv < , Adv < Adv < Adv < Adv DayWeek: Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Notes: The sample size is 145,458.

8 Static Pricing Equation Static Pricing Equation Dynamic Pricing Equation LnFare ijt = βhour t + 59 k=0 γ k I [Advt=k] + v ij + ε ijt, i: flight; j: route; t: time. Day in advance fixed effects. v ij controls for: Time-invariant flight-, carrier-, and airport-pair-specific characteristics. Flight-specific characteristics: Aircraft size, departure time, hub effect at the flight level, and systematic peak-load pricing. Carrier-specific characteristics: Managerial capacity. Airport-pair-specific characteristics: Herfindal index, distance between airport pairs, and hub effect.

9 Table: Static Pricing Equation (1) (2) (3) (4) Variables Coef StErr Coef StErr Coef StErr Coef StErr 2: * (0.949) 3.319* (0.971) 3.333* (0.955) 3.589* (1.008) 3: * (2.938) 9.819* (2.937) (2.925) 10.06* (2.874) 4: * (3.275) 9.360* (3.274) (3.263) (3.278) 5: (3.296) (3.301) (3.282) (3.223) 6: * (2.939) 8.054* (2.921) (2.929) (2.847) 7: * (2.855) 8.478* (2.849) (2.847) (2.938) 8: * (2.662) 8.307* (2.653) (2.653) (2.788) 9: * (2.665) 7.173* (2.653) (2.653) (2.803) 10: (2.118) 5.485* (2.124) (2.106) (2.142) 11: (1.344) (1.349) (1.335) (1.364) 12: (1.474) (1.478) (1.463) (1.350) 13: (1.396) (1.392) (1.389) (1.156) 14: (1.566) (1.572) (1.553) (1.260) 15: (1.808) (1.803) (1.799) (1.454) 16: (1.688) (1.692) (1.677) (1.511) 17: (1.590) (1.584) (1.579) (1.362) 18: (1.461) (1.466) (1.453) (1.419) 19: (1.448) (1.447) (1.438) (1.381) 20: (1.198) (1.202) (1.191) (1.448) 21: (0.787) (0.805) (0.791) (1.359) 22: (0.957) (0.970) (0.961) (1.670) 23: * (0.520) * (0.535) (0.519) * (1.124) 24: * (0.279) * (0.276) (0.279) * (0.264) Mondayt * (3.655) * (3.667) (3.652) Tuesdayt * (3.525) * (3.539) * (3.530) Wednesdayt * (6.441) * (6.471) * (6.451) Thursdayt * (8.410) * (8.426) * (8.381) Advt * (9.152) * (9.158) * (9.176) Advt * (0.255) 1.248* (0.255) 1.248* (0.255) Advt * ( ) * ( ) * ( ) Route FE No Yes Yes Yes Flight FE No No Yes Yes Adv FE No No No Yes Within R

10 Table: Static Pricing Equation: Role of Adv t. (1) (2) (3) (4) Sample: 0 Adv < Adv < Adv < Adv < 59.3 Variables Coef StErr Coef StErr Coef StErr Coef StErr 2: (2.930) (1.503) (0.665) (0.620) 3: * (9.450) (3.147) (0.790) (1.326) 4: (10.19) (3.589) (0.924) (1.328) 5: (9.059) (4.070) (0.810) (1.393) 6: (8.007) (4.255) (0.767) (1.102) 7: (7.171) (3.880) (0.693) (1.176) 8: (6.258) (3.372) (0.861) (1.162) 9: (5.985) (3.408) (1.214) (1.259) 10: (6.034) (3.120) (0.817) (0.858) 11: * (3.922) (3.465) (0.666) (0.979) 12: * (3.632) (4.121) (0.887) (1.100) 13: (4.423) (4.801) (0.931) (1.190) 14: * (2.681) (5.171) (1.149) (1.767) 15: (3.739) (5.457) (1.179) (1.053) 16: (3.862) (4.284) (0.936) (0.889) 17: (3.608) (4.292) (0.784) (1.015) 18: (2.879) (3.705) (0.816) (1.006) 19: (1.984) (3.799) (0.729) (0.825) 20: (2.650) (3.467) (0.749) (1.016) 21: (4.631) (1.921) * (0.448) (0.574) 22: (4.372) (1.778) (0.528) (0.905) 23: (4.789) (1.975) (0.565) (0.334) 24: * (0.959) (0.539) (0.546) (0.0794) Observations 31,037 36,377 39,405 38,550 Within R

11 1:00 3:00 5:00 7:00 9:00 11:00 13:00 15:00 17:00 19:00 21:00 23:00 Coefficient Estimates Static Rolling Regression Static Pricing Equation Dynamic Pricing Equation Figure: Rolling Regression: Pricing Estimates

12 Dynamic Pricing Equation Static Pricing Equation Dynamic Pricing Equation LnFare jt = αlnfare j,t 1 + βhour t + 59 k=0 γ k I [Adv=k] + v ij + ε ijt. Buyers and sellers are allowed to behave dynamically. LnFare j,t 1 is treated as endogenous. Forward looking. Can form beliefs about future prices. Estimation is consistent with rational expectations.

13 Dynamic Panels Static Pricing Equation Dynamic Pricing Equation LnFare j,t 1 as endogenous: Allowed to be correlated with ε ijt and earlier shocks. Cannot be correlated with ε ij,t+1 and future shocks. To estimate (α, β, γ), we use the methods described in Holtz-Eakin (1988) and Arellano and Bond (1991): Take first differences to eliminate the fixed effect term v ij. Use ε ijt to construct the moments E( ε ijt M). Assume ε ijt is not serially correlated. Lagged values of LnFare ijt are valid instruments. Two specification tests: Second order serial correlation test. Sargan test for the validity of the instruments.

14 Table: Dynamic Pricing Equation: Role of Adv t (1) (2) (3) Sample: 0 Adv < Adv < Adv < 59.3 Variables Coef StErr Coef StErr Coef StErr 2: * (0.758) 0.693* (0.253) 1.936* (0.379) 3: * (0.770) 0.979* (0.255) 5.095* (0.383) 4: * (0.780) 0.689* (0.256) 1.788* (0.386) 5: * (0.783) (0.258) 1.311* (0.389) 6: * (0.784) (0.261) 1.373* (0.391) 7: * (0.791) (0.264) 1.180* (0.395) 8: * (0.796) 0.795* (0.268) 1.208* (0.399) 9: (0.798) 0.734* (0.273) (0.403) 10: (0.796) (0.274) (0.404) 11: (0.798) * (0.275) (0.405) 12: (0.800) (0.275) (0.406) 13: (0.803) * (0.276) (0.407) 14: (0.802) * (0.277) * (0.407) 15: (0.801) * (0.277) (0.407) 16: (0.800) * (0.276) (0.406) 17: (0.795) * (0.274) * (0.404) 18: (0.789) * (0.272) * (0.401) 19: (0.785) * (0.272) * (0.400) 20: (0.780) * (0.270) (0.397) 21: * (0.781) (0.270) * (0.398) 22: (0.767) (0.264) (0.390) 23: (0.746) (0.257) * (0.379) 24: (0.752) (0.255) (0.380) LnFare ij,t * ( ) 0.392* (0.0128) 0.625* ( ) Specification tests: Serial correlation [0.983] [0.976] [0.928] Sargan [1] [1] [1]

15 Regression Estimates Static Pricing Equation Dynamic Pricing Equation Table: Dynamic Pricing Equation. Role of Adv t. Sample: 0 Adv < Adv < Adv < 59.3 Weekdays Weekends Weekdays Weekends Weekdays Weekends (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) Variables: LnFare ij,t * 0.625* 0.743* 0.404* 0.404* 0.778* 0.625* 0.616* 0.794* ( ) ( ) (0.0372) (0.0126) (0.0126) (0.0452) ( ) ( ) (0.0231) Officet a * * * * * (0.340) (0.708) (0.220) (0.120) (0.639) (0.0785) (0.174) (0.360) (0.115) Eveningt * * 0.662* * * * * 0.474* (0.338) (0.708) (0.220) (0.118) (0.584) (0.0789) (0.172) (0.359) (0.116) Officet Advt b * (0.0421) (0.0147) (0.0108) Eveningt Advt 0.169* * (0.0409) (0.0134) (0.0106) Price discrimination: β Office β Evening 0.931* * [ ] [ ] [0.967] [0.331] [0.0290] [0.0114] At Advt = 7 c 2.502* 1.587* [1.48e-07] [6.65e-08] At Advt = * [0.753] [9.11e-06] At Advt = [0.838] [0.478] Specification tests: Serial correlation d [0.959] [0.934] [0.386] [0.985] [0.984] [0.945] [0.965] [0.922] [0.409] Sargan e [1] [1] [0.903] [1] [1] [0.998] [1] [1] [1]

16 Dynamic price discrimination for perishable good under uncertain demand is a challenging task. Fares variation over time cannot be labeled as price discriminatory. Estimate price differences within the same flight within the same day to departure. Airlines separate consumers in two types: Business and tourists. High valuation consumers pay higher prices during office hours. The difference is higher as the proportion of high types increases.

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