Retail Trends & New Store Expansion in North Carolina

Transcription

1 Retail Trends & New Store Expansion in North Carolina Retail Strategies th Street South, Suite 201 Birmingham, AL

2 TRENDS SALES

3 TRENDS JOBS & SPACE

4 TRENDS VACANCY RATES

5 TRENDS INVENTORY

6 TRENDS GROWTH CATEGORIES

7 EXPANDING RETAILERS 200+

8 EXPANDING RETAILERS:

9 EXPANDING RETAILERS:

10 2014 RESTAURANTS TO EXPAND

11 TRENDS QSR TOP Rank 2003 U.S. Sales 2013 Rank 2013 U.S. Sales 1. McDonald s $22,121, McDonald s $35,856, Burger King 7,900, Subway 12,735, Wendy s 7,350, Starbucks 11,723, Subway 5,699, Wendy s 8,787, Taco Bell 5,346, Burger King 8,502, Pizza Hut 5,033, Taco Bell 7,446, KFC 4,936, Dunkin Donuts 6,742, Starbucks 3,699, Pizza Hut 5,423, Applebee s 3,518, Chick-fil-A 5,052, Domino s 3,003, Applebee s 4,515,545

12 TRENDS TOP 5 FASTEST GROWING The Five Fastest-Growing Chains with Sales Over $200 Million Ranked by Percentage Increase in Sales in 2013 vs Rank Chain U.S. Sales ($MM) % Sales Change % Unit Change 1 Dickey's Barbecue Pit $ % 29.8% 2 Smashburger Raising Cane's Chicken Fingers Marco's Pizza Jersey Mike's Subs

13 2014 CONVENIENCE STORES TO WATCH

14 2014 NEW CONSTRUCTION

15 2014 RETAIL OUTLOOK Omnichannel Inventory Reductions and Shrinkage of Store Size Convenience Experience Consumer Confidence Increase Housing Market Recovery Increased Income & Lower Unemployment Rate New Construction Lowest Level of Retail Vacancy Since the Great Recession New Deliveries at 4 Year High

16 U.S. SHOPPING CENTER DEVELOPMENT

17 2014 RETAILERS TO WATCH IN NORTH CAROLINA JUNIOR ANCHORS AND GROCERY

18 2014 RETAILERS TO WATCH IN NORTH CAROLINA SHOP SPACE AND OUT PARCELS 2014 RETAILERS TO WATCH IN NORTH CAROLINA FREE STANDING, DOUBLE TENANT, TRIPLE TENANT

19 2014 RETAILERS TO WATCH IN NORTH CAROLINA SECOND AND THIRD GENERATION SPACE 2014 CONVENIENCE STORES TO WATCH IN NORTH CAROLINA

20 2014 RETAILERS TO WATCH IN NORTH CAROLINA

21 RETAIL EXPANSION Formula for Retail Expansion: Estimated Sales less Estimated Cost equals Estimated Profit IS IT PROFITABLE TO OPEN A NEW LOCATION? Expansion Happens When: Retail Concept is Expanding New Location Will N ot Cannibalize Existing Stores Estimated Profit is Higher than Competing Locations

22 STEPS TO RETAIL/RESTAURANT EXPANSION Wall Street Local Tenant Representation Identify Sites Proforma Real Estate Committee Tenant Build-out Investors Real Estate Director Identify Markets TR Presents Site to RED Letter of Intent Lease OPENING! Retailer Drives the Decision Small percentage of proposed sites equal new openings Long Process It s all about PROFIT

23 MARKET ANALYSIS DRIVE TIMES FROM: CITY CENTER Category 10 Minutes 20 Minutes 30 Minutes Population ,548 44,081 85,999 Population 2018 Median Household Income 2013 Median Household Income 2018 Median Disposable Income ,842 44,604 87,651 $35,644 $40,536 $42,714 $41,810 $48,440 $51,158 $29,748 $34,251 $35, th Street South, Suite 201 Birmingham, AL 35233

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25 tapestry segmentation Retail Strategies Segmentation 101 Segmentation systems operate on the theory that people with similar tastes, lifestyles, and behaviors seek others with the same tastes like seeks like. These behaviors can be measured, predicted, and targeted. Esri s Tapestry Segmentation system combines the who of lifestyle demography with the where of local neighborhood geography to create a model of various lifestyle classifications or segments of actual neighborhoods with addresses distinct behavioral market segments. What is Tapestry Segmentation? Tapestry Segmentation represents the fourth generation of market segmentation systems that began more than 30 years ago. The 65-segment Tapestry Segmentation system classifies US neighborhoods based on their socioeconomic and demographic compositions. The power of Tapestry Segmentation allows you to profile consumers and constituents. Who Should Use Tapestry Segmentation? All companies, agencies, and organizations need to understand consumers/constituents in order to supply them with the right products and services and to reach them via their preferred media. These applications require a robust segmentation system that can accurately profile these diverse markets. The versatility and predictive power of Tapestry Segmentation allow users to integrate their own data or national consumer surveys into Tapestry Segmentation to identify their best market segments and reach them through the most effective channels.

26 demographic highlights Retail Strategies 30 MINUTE DRIVE TIME DOMINATE TAPESTRY SEGMENTATION Midland Crowd The growing population of 12 million, approximately 4 percent of the US population, identifies Midland Crowd as Tapestry Segmentation s largest segment. Since 2000, the population has grown by 2.18 percent annually. Sixty-two percent of the households are married couple families; half of them have children. Twenty percent of the households are singles who live alone. Most income is earned from wages and salaries; however, self-employment ventures are slightly higher for this segment than the national average. Half of the residents who work hold white collar jobs. More than 45 percent of the residents aged 25 years and older have attended college; 16 percent have earned a bachelor s or graduate degree. Midland Crowd residents live in housing developments in rural villages and towns throughout the United States, mainly in the South. Three-fourths of the housing was built after The home ownership rate is 80 percent, higher than the national rate of 64 percent. Two-thirds of the housing is single-family houses; 24 percent are mobile homes. These politically active, conservative residents vote, work for their candidates, and serve on local committees. Their rural location and traditional lifestyle dictate their product preferences. A fourth of the households own three or more vehicles; they typically own or lease a truck, and many own a motorcycle. Proficient do-it-yourselfers, they work on their vehicles, homes, and gardens and keep everything in tip-top shape. They hunt, fish, and do woodworking. Dogs are their favorite pets. They often go to the drive-through at a fast-food restaurant. Many households own a satellite dish so they can watch CMT, the Speed Channel, Home & Garden Television, NASCAR racing, rodeo/bull riding, truck and tractor pulls, fishing programs, and a variety of news programs. They listen to country music on the radio and read fishing and hunting magazines.

27 GAP ANALYSIS Category Gap # of Retailers Potential Square Feet Restaurants $46,175, ,000 Clothing $37,869, ,000 Electronics $27,525, ,000 Sporting Goods $18,593, ,000 Bldg Materials $11,622, ,000 Furniture $11,175, ,000 Pet Supplies Subjective 1 20,000 TOTAL ,000 SF The Gap Analysis is a summary of the primary spending Gaps segmented by retail category. It measures actual consumer expenditures within the City s trade area and compares it to the potential retail revenue generated by retailers in the same area. The difference between the two numbers reflects leakages, or the degree to which consumers travel outside the community for certain retail goods and services. The Gap analysis is a useful tool to gauge retail supply and demand within the community. The summary includes the Number of Retailers Targeted in Plan. These figures represent the number of retailers potentially required to fill the particular Gap in each category. Retail Strategies will generally approach a greater number of retailers as we seek to identify the best prospects to fill each Gap. *Too small of a GAP for new retailers beyond those already located in the market

28 RETAIL RECRUITMENT PROSPECTS Golden Corral Beef O Bradys Fuddruckers Ruby Tuesday Backyard Burgers Zaxby s Logan s Roadhouse Bonefish Grill Taziki s Wing Zone Mellow Mushroom PF Changs MooYah Burger Season s 52 Del Taco Smashburger Firehouse Subs Moe s Five Guys Potbelly Sandwich Shop Newk s Kona Grill Cheesecake Factory Zoe s Kitchen Del Taco Longhorn Steak House Firebirds World of Beer Schlotzsky s Brio s Smoothie King Chuy s The Rustic Restaurants Sales Leakage: Money Spent Outside of the Study Area $46,175,038

29 CONSUMER EXPENDITURES Food, Beverage, Tobacco Area Exp/ Hhld $ US Exp/ Hhld $ Expenditure Index* Area Exp Allocation % US Exp Allocation % Allocation Index** Total Food & Beverage Food at Home Alcoholic Beverages Beer and Ale at Home Whiskey at Home $7,111 $8, % 15.2% $3,768 $4, % 7.8% $530 $ % 1.2% $158 $ % 0.4% $51 $ % 0.1% Wine at Home $84 $ % 0.2% Beer and Ale not at Home $75 $ % 0.2% Wine Away From Home $36 $ % 0.1% th Street South, Suite 201 Birmingham, AL 35233

30 RETAIL SPENDING BY TOURIST Percent Change (%) Quarter Growth Rate Geometric Average Growth Per Quarter Over 10-Year Period Yearly High and Low

31 CURRENT RETAIL & KEY PROPERTY IDENTIFICATION th Street South, Suite 201 Birmingham, AL 35233

32 KEY PROPERTY CATALOG 1. City Plaza 139 Commerce Ave. Crossman & Co For Lease: 7,100 sf 2. City Marketplace 900 Hogansville Rd Wheeler Real Estate Company For Lease: 3,600 sf 3,000 sf 1,500 sf 1,200 sf 1,000 sf 3. City Station S David Road & Highway 29 SRS Real Estate For Lease 4. Exit 6 Opportunity KIA Parkway & KIA Boulevard Bull Realty For Sale: 18 Acres

33 ANNUAL SALES & TAX COLLECTIONS Local 1.0% $68 Million $3-4 Million Local - $680,000 Local - $40,000 $1-$2 Million Local - $20,000

34 Questions? Lacy Beasley Retail Strategies, LLC We make retail happen. Market ANALYSIS. Strategic PLANNING. Retail RECRUITMENT.