Mitigating risk of counterfeit parts in the electronic parts supply chain

Transcription

1 Mitigating risk of counterfeit parts in the electronic parts supply chain October 12, 2017 By: Dr. Vidya Mani Department of Supply Chain & Information Systems, Pennsylvania State University Joint work with Dr. Aydın Alptekinoğlu (PSU) and Dr. Jayashankar M. Swaminathan (UNC)

2 Agenda Motivation Introduction to the risk management framework General risk management framework. Application of framework to counterfeit risk in electronic parts supply chain. Research design Study 1 Impact of supply-side. Study 2 Impact of product characteristics. Study 3 Impact of demand-side. Cross-cutting risk Importance of information sharing Conclusions Follow-on research projects 2

3 Importance of understanding counterfeit risk for electronic parts $169B market for counterfeit electronics. Second largest component (16%) of all counterfeit seizures by CBP in Counterfeit electronic parts in public, health, and security applications have doubled in the last year. 3

4 Risk management framework Supplier failure, production delays, change in supplier cost, quality, and reliability, loss of key raw material or supplier, etc. Supply-side Product characteristics Technology evolution for the product, changes to material and production processes, intellectual property theft, etc. Demand-side Change in customer preferences, change in market conditions, change due to environmental regulations or government legislation, etc. 4

5 Mitigating risk of counterfeit parts Risk analysis of counterfeit parts through study of supply-side, product characteristics and demand-side, which influence counterfeit risk Sub-tier Suppliers e.g. contract manufacturers, assemblers, testers, foundries Original Component Manufacturer (OCM) e.g. semiconductor manufacturer - Xilinx Authorized Distributor e.g. Arrow Electronics Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) e.g. Honeywell Downstream Customers e.g. system integrators, assemblers, end consumer Unauthorized sources of supply (independent distributors, brokers, other resellers) 5

6 Risk management framework Supply-side Risk Analysis Product characteristics Demand-side Objective: A quantitative assessment of that influence counterfeit risk and effective mitigation strategies based on empirical data. Risk analysis framework: Supply-side what are the supply chain that can lead to an increase in counterfeit risk for parts? Product characteristics are there common characteristics across parts that make parts more susceptible to counterfeit risk? Demand-side what is the impact of the counterfeit part to the customer? what buyer practices can increase or mitigate counterfeit risk? 6

7 Study 1: What supply-side lead to an increase in counterfeit risk? 7

8 What supply-side lead to an increase in counterfeit risk? Supply-side Manufacturer (OCM) Conceptual map of supply chain Distributor Customer (OEM) Supply - shortages, leadtime, inventory Distribution - unauthorized sources, price difference Market and business ecosystem - regulations, customer preferences Background: According to a study conducted by SIA: most counterfeit parts are those that are hard to get because the parts were out of production or current production capacity could not keep up with demand (from Winning the battle against counterfeiters, SIA 2011). The issue of counterfeit parts is just a symptom of a supply/demand imbalance Arrow Electronics (from Sheffi, 2015). 8

9 What supply-side lead to an increase in counterfeit risk? Supply-side Data and empirical analysis We collate the following information on active FPGA (field programmable gate array) parts: Number of distributors, average and trend in lead time, average price, number of available substitutes, inventory, price difference between authorized and unauthorized sources, internal and external changes, number of change notifications, and counterfeit reports for the period Create a timeline of information available for each part. Select a cutoff date based on last information update to predict counterfeit risk after the cutoff date. Run a regression model to identify that significantly influence counterfeit risk. 9

10 What supply-side lead to an increase in counterfeit risk? Supply-side Impact of supply chain and mitigation strategies on counterfeit risk Factors increasing counterfeit risk Parts more susceptible to counterfeit risk: High value, aging parts. Supply-side : shortages, an increasing trend in leadtime. Distribution: number of unauthorized sources, price difference. Market-side: number of external changes. Mitigation strategies Sourcing flexibility - number of available substitutes or sources with inventory Information sharing on upcoming changes with supply chain partners. Variable (10% increase relative to mean) Shortages +15.8% Price difference +9.5% Number of external changes Variable (10% increase relative to mean) Impact on counterfeit risk +12.2% Sourcing flexibility -17.4% Impact on counterfeit risk Information sharing -23.6% 10

11 Risk management framework Supply-side Product characteristics Demand-side 11

12 Study 2: What product characteristics lead to higher risk of counterfeit parts? 12

13 What product characteristics lead to higher risk of counterfeit parts? Product characteristics Conceptual map of product characteristics Functionality Supply Environmental Reprogrammability Support multiple platforms and flexible architecture High reliability and endurance Available in large volume Availability of lowcost options Compliance with regulations (e.g., ROHS, REACH) Lead-free option Background: Anecdotal evidence suggest that some part-categories are more easily counterfeited than others. From study 1, we know these are high-value parts. Can we isolate common characteristics across a set of parts that make them more susceptible to counterfeit risk? 13

14 What product characteristics lead to higher risk of counterfeit parts? Product characteristics Data and empirical analysis Focus on programmable logic devices (ASICs, FPGAs, etc.) Collate data for genuine parts from product datasheets and for counterfeit parts from counterfeit reports to categorize them into: Functional characteristics Supply characteristics Environmental characteristics Run a regression model to identify that significantly influence the number of counterfeit reports observed for a part. 14

15 What product characteristics lead to higher risk of counterfeit parts? Product characteristics Impact of product characteristics on counterfeit risk Product characteristics that increase counterfeit risk Functionality characteristics: reprogrammability and reliability. Supply characteristics: availability in large volume. Environmental characteristics: lead-free option. Variable (10% increase relative to mean) Reprogrammability +27.6% Availability in large volume Impact on Counterfeit risk +11.3% 15

16 Risk management framework Shortages at authorized sources, availability (price difference) at unauthorized sources, external changes Supply-side Risk Analysis Product characteristics Problem of shortages compounded by counterfeit parts available in large volume and low cost. Regulations can lead to shortages and increase the supply of non-compliant parts. Demand-side 16

17 Study 3: What demand-side lead to higher risk of counterfeit parts? 17

18 What demand-side impact counterfeit risk? Demandside Buyer practices Use a survey to understand buyer practices that influence counterfeit risk Cost of recovery Use data on repair and replacement to quantify the cost impact of failure due to counterfeit parts Background: Demand-side Anecdotal evidence suggests that counterfeit parts could lead to untimely failure of sub-assemblies and systems. Can we identify buyer practices that could significantly influence counterfeit risk? Given that a counterfeit part may be in the system, can we quantify its impact on cost of recovery? 18

19 What demand-side impact counterfeit risk? Demandside Data and empirical analysis Obtained time and material contracts for the period for repair and replacement of parts for all four Military Services. Matched data with counterfeit part numbers to identify part failures that are potentially due to a counterfeit part. At the TMS (type/model/series) level, we compare labor and material costs for parts with counterfeit alerts vs. other parts. On average, 7.5% increase in cost for parts with counterfeit alerts (range: 3.8% %). Demand-side 19

20 What demand-side impact counterfeit risk? Demandside Data and empirical analysis Obtained time and material contracts for the period for repair and replacement of parts for all four Military Services. Matched data with counterfeit part numbers to identify part failures that are potentially due to a counterfeit part. At the TMS (type/model/series) level, we compare labor and material costs for parts with counterfeit alerts vs. other parts. On average, 7.5% increase in cost for parts with counterfeit alerts (range: 3.8% %). 70% of the increase in cost is due to increase in labor cost. Common faults associated with parts with counterfeit alerts include fault in structure or functionality of the part. Demand-side 20

21 Risk management framework Shortages at authorized sources, availability (price difference) at unauthorized sources, external changes Replacement parts are hard to find if genuine parts are in shortage and require more time to verify if there are counterfeit alerts. Sourcing flexibility can reduce cost of recovery through use of alternate sources or substitutes. Supply-side Risk Analysis Product characteristics Problem of shortages compounded with counterfeit parts available in large volume and low cost. Regulations can lead to shortage and increase supply of non-compliant parts. Demand-side Counterfeit parts that are not reliable or reprogrammable can lead to failures that are hard to detect and repair. 21

22 What demand-side impact counterfeit risk? Demandside Survey design Information Sharing Level of information sharing on counterfeit part alerts within an organization unit, across organization units, and with supply chain partners. Accessibility to the information across the supply chain. Same set of questions were asked to different POCs in each of the four Military Services and DLA. 80% response rate. Risk Management Factoring in counterfeit risk into a risk assessment tool. Sharing of risk assessment tool across the supply chain. Effective buyer practices Practices to verify that suppliers ensure that parts are genuine. Practices to mitigate supply risk (or shortages) for a part. Demand-side 22

23 What demand-side impact counterfeit risk? Demandside Major findings Information Sharing Risk Management Low levels of information sharing with other services, more likely to share with a supply-chain partner than other Services. > 50% do not report information in a public database but use GIDEP (govt. industry data exchange program) to monitor alerts. 60% do not use any tool. Of the 40% that use a tool, only 5% share it with other organizations. Lack of information sharing Effective buyer practices > 60% believe periodic audits of suppliers and legal actions are effective. > 80% are actively developing alternate sources. > 85% rely on documentation to verify authenticity of part. Developing sourcing flexibility Demand-side 23

24 Risk management framework Information sharing with SC partners Shortages at authorized sources, availability & price difference at unauthorized sources, external changes Information sharing on identification and testing for counterfeit parts Supply-side Product characteristics Risk Analysis Demand-side Information sharing on fault types associated with counterfeit parts 17

25 Conclusions Risk : Shortages, price difference, and external changes have a significant impact on counterfeit risk. Reprogrammable and high reliability parts are highly susceptible to counterfeit risk, often available in large volume. Failure of parts with counterfeit alerts have a higher cost of recovery. Mitigation strategies: Flexibility in sourcing of parts. Information sharing across supply chain partners. 25

26 Follow-on research Data collection to map the supply chain risk across the network Risk analysis of counterfeit parts through study of supply-side, product characteristics and demand-side, which influence counterfeit risk Qualitative study on buyer practices through surveys Sub-tier suppliers e.g. contract manufacturers, assemblers, testers, foundries Original Component Manufacturer (OCM) e.g. semiconductor manufacturer - Xilinx Authorized Distributor e.g. Arrow Electronics Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) e.g. Honeywell Downstream customers e.g. system integrators, assemblers, end consumer Understand the role of regulations and standards in mitigating counterfeit risk Explore the role of counterfeit parts in cyber security incidents 26

27 Thank you!! Vidya Mani 27