2006 Retail Trade Analysis Report. Virginia, Eveleth, Gilbert & Mt. Iron Area St. Louis County, Minnesota. Funding provided by. The Blandin Foundation

Transcription

1 2006 Retail Trade Analysis Report Virginia, Eveleth, Gilbert & Mt. Iron Area St. Louis County, Minnesota Funding provided by The Blandin Foundation and University of Minnesota Extension s Center for Community Vitality Copyright 2008, Regents of the University of Minnesota. All rights reserved. In accordance with the Americans with Disabilities Act, this material is available in alternative formats upon request. Please contact your University of Minnesota Extension office or the Distribution Center at (800) The University of Minnesota Extension is committed to the policy that all persons shall have equal access to its programs, facilities, and employment without regard to race, color, creed, religion, national origin, sex, age, marital status, disability, public assistance status, veteran status, or sexual orientation.

2 Introduction The University of Minnesota Extension has developed this retail trade analysis program to assist in the economic development of Minnesota towns and cities. These reports are available for all Minnesota counties, for most cities above 5,000 population and for a few cities smaller than 5,000 population. The retail sector of each jurisdiction can be evaluated by comparing its trends to those of other similar jurisdictions. Business people and economic development officials can use measures such as pull factors and leakages to determine the need and feasibility of new retail businesses. Data Sources Most of the data in the analysis are based on annual reports of Minnesota retail and use tax, published by the Minnesota Department of Revenue. The Department of Revenue published an annual report of sales and use tax by jurisdiction until 1996, at which time the reports were released biannually due to budget constraints. This analysis uses the available reports from , 1998, 2000, 2003, 2004,2005 and The reports interpolate data for the years in which data are not available. (See The income data in this repor are obtained from reports by Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). (See Population data are derived from the U.S. Census. (See and use tax permit holders file returns and remit taxes on either a monthly, quarterly or annual basis. Large businesses such as discount department stores whose tax is more than $500 per month are required to file on a monthly basis, while medium sized businesses whose sales tax collections are less than $500 per month, are required to file on a quarterly basis and small businesses with sales tax collections less than $100 per month would most likely file on an annual basis. Definition of Terms Gross Gross sales include taxable sales and exempt sales for businesses holding sales and use tax permits. This is the most inclusive indicator of business activity for the reporting jurisdictions but it can be misleading when used in comparisons. At times commodity items (like gasoline), that are not taxable, can have large price variations, creating huge swings in gross sales. Taxable Taxable sales are the amount of sales subject to sales tax. Taxable sales exclude exempt items, items sold for resale, items sold for exempt purposes and items sold to exempt organizations. For more information on what is taxed in Minnesota, see "Minnesota and Use Tax Instruction Booklet" availabe on the web at Current and Constant Dollar Current dollar (or "nominal dollar") sales are sales as reported by the state. No adjustment has been made for price inflation. In general this measure of sales is not satisfactory for comparisons over long periods of time since it does not account for changes in population, inflation, or the state's economy. Constant dollar (or "real dollar") sales reflect changes in price inflation by adjustin current dollar sales with the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Constant dollar sales indicate the real sales level with respect to a base year. This is a more realistic method of evaluating sales over time than current dollar comparisons, but still does not take into consideration changes in population or changes in the state's economy. Page 1

3 Number of businesses The number of sales and use tax permit holders who filed one or more tax returns for the year are reported as the number of businesses. Reporting Period The reporting periods in this report are calendar years. For example, the sales reported for the year 2000 are for the period, January 1, 2000 to December 31, Per Capita Per capita (or per person ) sales are calculated by dividing current dollar sales by the population estimate. In areas where population is subject to substantial change, this is a more satisfactory measure of sales activity than sales alone. However, it still does not reflect changes in the state economy. Pull Factor The pull factor was developed by Dr. Ken Stone, an economist from Iowa State University Extension Service to provide a precise measure of sales activity in a locality. It is derived by dividing the per capita current dollar sales of a city or county by the per capita sales for the state. For example, if a city's per capita sales are $20,000 per year and the state per capita sales are $10,000 per year, the pull factor is 2.0 ($20,000 $10,000). The interpretation is that the city is selling to 200 percent of the city population. Pull factors are good measures of sales activity because they reflect changes in population, inflation, and the state economy. Pull factors are available through the Extension Service for total taxable sales for all cities with reported sales (generally, cities with a population of 5,000 or more) since The pull factors listed in this report are not adjusted for differing income levels in different communities; they are simply the ratio of local per person sales to the state average. Income levels are accounted for in the expected sales and potential sales formulas, described below. Typical Pull Factor The typical pull factor is a pull factor that represents the norm for cities within a population group. It is an average for cities within a population group taking into account any outliers in the group. Personal Income Personal income is defined as the income received by, or on behalf of, all the residents of the county (state) from all sources. Personal income is the sum of wage and salary disbursements, supplements to wages and salaries (e.g.. contributions to retirement funds, health plans, life insurance policies), proprietors' income, rental income, personal dividend income, personal interest income, and personal current transfer receipts to persons (e.g. receipts of Social Security, disability, worker's compensation, Medicare/Medicaid, food stamps,etc.) less contributions for government social insurance (e.g. Social Security, Medicare). (For more details, see Index of Income This index provides a relative measure of income, calculated by dividing local per capita income by state per capita income. The base is For example, an index of income of 1.20 indicates that per capita income in the area is 20 percent above the state average. Page 2

4 Expected Expected sales is a retail performance benchmark. It is an estimate of the sales level a town would achieve if it were performing on par with Minnesota towns of a similar size. In addition to population and income variables, expected sales incorporates the typical strength of comparable communities via the typical pull factor. Expected sales is the product of city population, state per capita sales, the index of income and the typical pull factor. For example, if a city has a population of 5,000, the state per capita sales are $9,000, the typical pull factor is 1.30, and the index of income is 1.03, expected sales is approximately $60 million per year (5,000 x $9,000 x 1.30 x 1.03). This provides a means of comparing what is expected for a city of a certain size to what is actually happening. Potential Potential sales is an estimate of the amount of money that is spent on retail goods and services by residents of a county. It is the product of county population, state per capita sales and the index of income. The potential sales concept for counties is similar to the expected sales calculations for towns. However, potential sales does not utilize a measure of average pulling power (like the typical pull factor that is used in the expected sales equation). Since a county is a relatively large region within which retail business takes place, counties are compared without adjustments for trade area size. Variance Between Actual and Expected (Surplus or Leakage) The variance between actual and expected sales is how much retail sales differ from the norm (i.e., the amount above or below the standard established by the expected sales formula). When actual sales exceed expected sales, we say the city has a "surplus" of retail sales. When actual sales fall short of expected sales, we say the city has a retail sales "leakage". The set of similarlysized cities in Minnesota is the peer group to which the comparison is being made. Discrepancies between expected and actua sales occur for a variety of reasons. Proximity to larger population centers, management, marketing, and transportation patterns are just a few factors that can cause the retail sales of a particular town to deviate substantially from expected sales. It is important that decision-makers consider these influences when constructing policies, plans, or projects. The surplus or leakage is expressed in dollars, percentages, and customer equivalents. The use of the analysis will dictate which measure best conveys the information, though all are equivalen In the case of leakages, the dollar amount is usually the easiest to use since it immediately conveys the potential sales for new businesses. Trade Area Population Gain or Loss The trade area population gain or loss translates the percentage amount of surplus or leakage of retail sales into an estimate of th number of customers gained or lost in the trade area. It is calculated by multiplying the percent surplus or leakage by the population estimate for the city or county. For example, if a city with 10,000 residents had a retail sales surplus of 20%, the trad area population gain would be 2,000. Adding this number to the city's population gives an estimate of the population size of the city's trade area. Page 3

5 Cautions Gross Gross sales is a comprehensive measure of business activity, but readers should be aware that the numbers in this report are selfreported by holders of sales and use tax reports. Furthermore, the gross sales are not audited by the State of Minnesota. It is believed that the gross sales figures are generally reliable, but there is the possibility of distortions, especially in smaller cities where misreporting may have occurred. Misclassification Holders of sales and use tax permits select the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) category that best fits their business. Regardless of who makes this classification, errors are occasionally made. Also, sometimes a business will start out as one type of business, but may evolve over time to a considerably different type of business. Misclassifications can distort sales among business categories, especially in smaller towns. For example, a furniture store that is classified as a general merchandise store, will under-report the sales in the furniture store category and over-report the sales in the general merchandise category. Suppressed Data The sales data for merchandise categories that have less than four reporting firms are not reported. This is a measure taken by most states to protect the confidentiality of sales tax permit holders. The sales for suppressed categories are placed into the miscellaneous category and are included in total sales. Consolidated Reporting Vendors doing business at more than one location in Minnesota have the option of filing a separate return for each location or filing one consolidated return for all locations. The consolidated return shows, for each business establishment, the sales made, tax due and location by city and county. Data for the establishments of consolidated filers are combined with data for singlelocation filers to produce the figures in this report. Occasionally consolidated reports may not be properly deconstructed and all the sales for a company may be reported for one town or city. Whenever misreporting is discovered, contacts are made with the Minnesota Revenue Department to clarify the situation Changes Between 2000 and 2003 For fiscal year 2003, the Minnesota Department of Revenue implemented two major changes to improve their reporting of sales and use tax data. First, they adopted a geo-coding system, which accurately identifies the location of all business reporting sales and use tax to the state rather than relying on the businesses' postal addresses. One effect of this change is a movement of sales between neighboring cities (and in some cases, counties) in the year Thus, in several of the suburbs of Minneapolis and St.Paul and in cities such as Hermantown, which is adjacent to Duluth, the data show large increases in retail sales between 2000 and 2003, a substantial portion of which is due to the re-coding of business location and not to actual growth in sales. The second change implemented by the Department of Revenue in 2003 was a shift from the Standard Industrial Classification system (SIC codes) to the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS codes). This switch does affect the comparability of the data series prior to 2000 with that of 2003 (and beyond), especially for merchandise categories. Overall retail and services sales are highly comparable over time. In many cases, the merchandise categories for the data prior to 2003 are very closely related to the new categories. For example, approximately 97% of the 2003 statewide sales in the general merchandise category were accounted for by firms also classified as general merchandise under the SIC system. In other cases, the correspondence is less straightforward. For example, only 56% of 2003 statewide sales in the Food and Beverage store category were accounted for by firms classified as Food Stores under the older classification system; 41% of 2003 Food store sales were accounted for by firms previously categorized as Miscellaneous Retail. The NAICS system does provide greater detail and introduces some new sectors, such as Retail Electronics. Over time, these changes will improve the information available for retail trade analysis. For additional information, please see Changes Starting in 2006 The and Use Tax Statistics report for 2006 uses a slightly different methodology than in previous years. Rather than basing the report on the year in which sales were made (as was true in earlier reports), the 2006 report is based on when returns were processed. To best approximate the economic activity for calendar year 2006, this report includes all returns processed from February 2006 through January Returns are included in the report regardless of the date of sale. Page 4

6 Summary of Area Retail Trade Retail (Evel, Virg, Mt Iron, Gilbert) Millions $ $ $ $ $ $ $50.00 $ Gross Taxable Retail Pull Factor for combined area (NAICS 44 & 45) Number of Retailers (NAICS 44 & 45) Virginia Eveleth Mt. Iron Gilbert Page 1

7 Summary of Area Tax Reports Gilbert Mountain Iron #44 & 45 are Retail Stores #72 are lodging, bars, and restaurants #81 is repair businesses and personal services #99 is everything else including manufacturing Page 1

8 Total Taxable and Gross Retail Virginia Retail Trade Overview The table below presents gross and taxable retail and services sales for Virginia from 1990 through Taxable sales in Virginia increased 2.7 percent from 1996 to 2006, while the number of firms fell 20.3 percent. Statewide, taxable sales increased 59.4 percent over the same time period and the number of firms rose 7.9 percent. The per capita sales and pull factor data in this table are based on taxable sales, the more verified sales measure. The table also presents sales data in constant 2006 dollars. These figures have been adjusted for inflation to reflect their value in For example, in 1990, taxable sales in Virginia totaled $84.58 million, an amount worth $ million in 2006 dollars. In constant dollars, gross sales grew 3.1 percent between 1996 and Constant dollar taxable sales decreased 19.9 percent over the same time period Current Dollars Constant 2006 Dollars Year Estimated Population Gross * Taxable ($millions) ($millions) Gross * ($millions) Taxable ($millions) Number of Firms Per Capita Pull Factor ,447 $ $84.58 $ $ $8, ,388 $ $79.93 $ $ $8, ,356 $ $88.82 $ $ $9, ,272 $ $93.63 $ $ $10, ,164 $ $98.78 $ $ $10, ,055 $ $ $ $ $11, ,985 $ $ $ $ $12, ,946 NA NA NA NA NA $0 NA ,841 $ $ $ $ $12, ,782 NA NA NA NA NA $0 NA ,157 $ $ $ $ $13, ,062 NA NA NA NA NA $0 NA ,982 NA NA NA NA NA $0 NA ,888 $ $ $ $ $11, ,783 $ $ $ $ $12, ,648 $ $ $ $ $12, ,550 $ $ $ $ $12, yr Change '96 to '06-4.8% 32.1% 2.7% 3.1% -19.9% -20.3% 7.9% -24.8% 3 yr Change '03 to '06-3.8% 25.3% 6.5% 14.0% -3.1% -1.6% 10.7% 2.9% *Gross sales figures are self-reported by firms and not audited by the Dept. of Revenue for accuracy. Virginia: Total Retail $350.0 $Millions Total : Gross vs. Taxable $350.0 $Millions Gross : Current$ vs. Constant$ $300.0 $300.0 $250.0 $250.0 $200.0 $200.0 $150.0 $150.0 $100.0 $100.0 $50.0 $50.0 $ Year $ Year Taxable Gross Constant $ Current $ Page 5

9 Virginia Components of Change, 2003 to 2006 Category Taxable 2003 Taxable 2006 Dollar Change Percent Change Vehicles & Parts $7,992,561 $7,410,608 -$581, % Furniture Stores $3,874,444 $5,793,533 +$1,919, % Electronics $2,784,849 $3,061,792 +$276, % Building Materials $6,942,503 $6,820,404 -$122, % Food, Groceries $4,838,230 $6,439,659 +$1,601, % Health, Personal Stores $529,460 $882,221 +$352, % Gasoline Stations $3,812,027 $2,364,314 -$1,447, % Apparel $4,176,304 $4,521,623 +$345, % Leisure Goods $3,134,591 $2,823,378 -$311, % General Merchandise Stores $35,666,020 $33,676,935 -$1,989, % Miscellaneous Retail $4,524,491 $3,682,416 -$842, % Accomodations $1,630,507 $3,845,109 +$2,214, % Eating & Drinking $12,865,285 $14,376,001 +$1,510, % Total Retail and Services $103,960,742 $110,713,798 +$6,753, % Figures not adjusted for inflation. Dollar Changes by Category (in Millions) 2003 to $1.92 +$1.60 +$2.21 +$1.51 +$0.28 +$0.35 +$0.35 -$0.58 -$0.12 -$0.31 -$0.84 -$1.45 -$1.99 Parts Furn. Elec. Bldg.Mat Food Health Gas St. Cloth Leis. GenMer. Misc. Hotel Eat Page 6

10 Historical Trends By Merchandise Category Virginia The following tables and charts depict pull factors in Virginia from 1990 to 2000* by merchandise category. Pull factors are a measure of trade area size that provide a useful measure of changes over time because they account for changes in population and state-wide industry trends. Category Descriptions Building Materials: Includes retail establishments primarily engaged in selling lumber and other building materials; paint, glass, and wallpaper; hardware; nursery stock; and lawn and garden supplies. General Merchandise: Includes retail stores which sell a number of lines of merchandise, such as dry goods, apparel and accessories, furniture and home furnishings, small wares, hardware, and food. The stores included in this group are known as department stores, variety stores, general merchandise stores, catalog showrooms, warehouse clubs, and general stores. Food: This group is comprised of retail stores primarily engaged in selling food for home preparation and consumption. Apparel: Retail stores primarily engaged in selling clothing of all kinds and related articles for personal wear and adornment. Not included are establishments which meet the criteria for Department Stores even though most of their receipts are from the sale of apparel and apparel accessories. Pull Factor Year Pull Factors by Merchandise Category (1 of 3) Year Building Materials General Merchandise Food Apparel Pull Factors by Merchandise Category Virginia, Building Materials General Merchandise Food Apparel NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA % Change, '90 to ' % 31.26% % % *Due to a change in how firms are categorized beginning with fiscal year 2003, only data through fiscal year 2000 are presented in this section. % Change, '98 to ' % 7.74% -5.97% % These pull factors are calculated using taxable sales. Although taxable sales do not capture the full extent of sales in stores with a large number of un-taxed goods, like grocery and apparel stores, these data are audite by the Minnesota Department of Revenue. Since sales tax laws apply statewide, all cities are compared on the same basis. Page 7

11 Historical Trends By Merchandise Category Virginia The following tables and charts depict pull factors in Virginia from 1990 to 2000* by merchandise category. Pull factors are a measure of trade area size that provide a useful measure of changes over time because they account for changes in population and state-wide industry trends. Category Descriptions Furniture: This group includes retail stores selling goods used for furnishing the home such as furniture, floor coverings, draperies, glass and chinaware, domestic stoves, refrigerators, and other household electric and gas appliances. Automotive: Establishments selling new and used automobiles, boats, recreational vehicles and utility trailers, and motorcycles and mopeds; dealers selling new automobile parts and accessories; and gasoline service stations. Eating & Drinking: This major group includes retail establishments engaged in selling prepared food and drinks for consumption on the premises. Also included are caterers which serve prepared food other than at the place of business and lunch counters and refreshment stands selling prepared foods and drinks for immediate consumption. Pull Factor Pull Factors by Merchandise Category (2 of 3) Year Furniture Automotive Eating & Drinking Misc. Retail Pull Factors by Merchandise Category Virginia, Miscellaneous Retail: This category includes retail establishments not elsewhere classified. These establishments fall into the following categories: liquor stores; used merchandise stores; miscellaneous shopping goods stores; nonstore retailers, fuel dealers, florists, cigar stores and stands, news dealers and newsstands, and miscellaneous retail stores not elsewhere classified. Year Furniture Automotive Eating & Drinking Misc. Retail NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA % Change, '90 to ' % -4.88% % % *Due to a change in how firms are categorized beginning with fiscal year 2003, only data through fiscal year 2000 are presented in this section. % Change, '98 to ' % -6.00% -4.21% -9.85% These pull factors are calculated using taxable sales. Although taxable sales do not capture the full extent of sales in stores with a large number of un-taxed goods, like grocery and apparel stores, these data are audited by the Minnesota Department of Revenue. Since sales tax laws apply statewide, all cities are compared on the same basis. Page 8

12 Historical Trends By Merchandise Category Virginia The following tables and charts depict pull factors in Virginia from 1990 to 2000* by merchandise category. Pull factors are a measure of trade area size that provide a useful measure of changes over time because they account for changes in population and state-wide industry trends. Category Descriptions Lodging: Includes establishments engaged in providing lodging, or lodging and meals, and camping facilities. Personal Services: includes establishments primarily engaged in providing services generally to individuals such as barber and beauty shops, drycleaning plants, laundries, and photographic studios. Business Services: Includes establishments primarily engaged in providing services, not elsewhere classified, to business establishments on a contract or fee basis. Automobile Services: Includes establishments primarily engaged in furnishing automotive repair, rental, leasing, parking, and other services. Pull Factor Pull Factors by Merchandise Category (3 of 3) Year Lodging Personal Services Business Services Automobile Services Amusement & Recreation Pull Factors by Merchandise Category Virginia, Amusement and Recreation: This group includes establishments primarily engaged in providing amusement, recreation, or entertainment services, not elsewhere classified. Year Lodging Personal Services Business Services Automobile Services Amusement & Recreation NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA % Change, '90 to ' % % 12.23% 38.50% % % Change, '98 to ' % -2.88% 16.96% 23.32% % *Due to a change in how firms are categorized beginning with fiscal year 2003, only data through fiscal year 2000 are presented in this section. These pull factors are calculated using taxable sales. Although taxable sales do not capture the full extent of sales in stores with a large number of un-taxed goods, like grocery and apparel stores, these data are audited by the Minnesota Department of Revenue. Since sales tax laws apply statewide, all cities are compared on the same basis. Page 9

13 Recent Trends By Merchandise Category Virginia The following tables and charts depict pull factors in Virginia from 2003 to 2006* by merchandise category. Pull factors are a measure of trade area size that provide a useful measure of changes over time because they account for changes in population and state-wide industry trends. Pull Factor by NAICS Merchandise Category (1 of 2) Pull Factors Vehicles & Parts Furniture Electronics Building Materials Food Health & Personal Gas Stations Apparel Leisure Goods NAICS Category Descriptions Motor Vehicles & Parts: Establishments that sell new & used autos, boats, motorcycles, golf carts, RV's, campers, trailers, tires, and parts. Furniture: Stores that sell furniture, beds, carpeting, window coverings, lamps, china, kitchenware, & woodburning stoves. Electronics: Establishments primarily engaged in retailing household-type appliances, sewing machines, cameras, computers, and other electronic goods. Building Materials: Establishments that sell lumber, hardware, paint, wallpaper, tile, hardwood floors, roofing, fencing, ceiling fans, lawn equipment, garden centers, and feed stores. Food: Grocery stores, deli's, bakery, & butcher shops that sell food to be prepared at home. Liquor stores. Health & Personal: Pharmacies, food supplements, vision supplies, cosmetics, & hearing aid stores. Gas Stations: Retailers that sell fuel along with convenience store items. Apparel: New clothing and accessories, jewelry, shoes, bridal shops, clock shops, and luggage stores. Leisure Goods: Sporting goods, books, music, hobby stores, fabric shops, and toy stores. *Caution should be used when comparing pull factors before 2003 to those in later years due to the switch from SIC to NAICS. Page 10

14 Recent Trends By Merchandise Category Virginia The following tables and charts depict pull factors in Virginia from 2003 to 2006* by merchandise category. Pull factors are a measure of trade area size that provide a useful measure of changes over time because they account for changes in population and state-wide industry trends Pull Factor by NAICS Merchandise Category (2 of 2) Pull Factors Gen. Merch. Misc. Store Non-Store Retail Amusement Lodging Eating & Drinking Repair Personal Services NAICS Category Descriptions General Merchandise: Establishments that sell a mixed line of goods. Examples are department stores, supercenters, and dollar stores. Miscellaneous Store Retailers: Stores not covered in other categories such as florists, office supplies, pets, antiques, tobacco, art, used merchandise, and trophies. Non-Store Retail: Retailers that do not use stores. This includes mail order, internet selling, bazaars, vending machines, fuel oil dealers, firewood dealers, door-to-door sales, and produce stands. Amusement: Establishments such as golf courses, bowling lanes, marinas, amusement parks, water parks, shooting ranges, pool halls, horseback riding, ballrooms, health club facilities, ski hills, and casinos. Lodging: Seasonal resorts, hotels, boarding houses, bed & breakfast, campgrounds, RV parks. Eating & Drinking: Restaurants, donut shops, coffee house, cafeteria, caterers, taverns, and nightclubs, Repair: Businesses that return equipment to working order. Examples: cars, lawnmowers, small engines, knives, shoes, computers, furniture, and appliances. Personal Services: Barbers, beauty salons, tanning facilities, funeral homes, laundromats, dry cleaners, pet groomers, kennels, and photo finishing. *Caution should be used when comparing pull factors before 2003 to those in later years due to the switch from SIC to NAICS. Page 11

15 Comparison with Competing Centers Virginia $450.0 Gross Retail & Service (in millions) 3.50 Pull Factors $ $350.0 $ $ $ $ $100.0 $ $ Fiscal Year Virginia Grand Rapids Fiscal Year Chisholm Hibbing Information about competing trade centers can provide a useful means of comparison when assessing a community's retail trade sector. Comparison towns were selected based on geographic proximity, relative size and availability of data. Some caution is warranted in the interpretation of these comparisons however, since retail sales data is provided for only a limited number of towns and cities. Comparison with Competing Trade Centers, 2006 Town Virginia Chisholm Grand Rapids Hibbing Population Gross ($millions) Taxable ($millions) Number of Firms Per Capita Taxable Pull Factor (Taxable ) 8,550 $ $ $12, ,634 $31.95 $ $2, ,337 $ $ $21, ,295 $ $ $7, Page 12

16 Trade Area Analysis of Retail Virginia The following tables provide information on retail sales by merchandise category. "Expected sales" is a standard to which actual performance is compared. In calculating expected sales, population, income, and typical "pulling power" characteristics are taken into account. Expected sales can be used as a guideline or "par value" in analyzing retail strength. Deviations from these norms can be analyzed to first judge whether they should be considered relevant. If the differences appear to be significant (whether in dollar amounts or relatively with percentages), additional consideration is merited. Categories with undesirable performance may be further examined for potential corrective action. It is also important to determine whether or not the situation is relatively uncontrollable due to external or extenuating circumstances. In cases of favorable differences from expectations, the positive aspects should be identified and built upon. Trade Area Analysis by Merchandise Category, 2006 Variance Between Actual & Expected Merchandise Group Vehicles & Parts Furniture Stores Electronics Building Materials Food, Groceries Health, Personal Stores Gasoline Stations Apparel Leisure Goods General Merchandise Stores Miscellaneous Retail Amusement & Recreation Accomodations Eating & Drinking Places Repair, Maintenance Personal Services, Laundry Total Taxable Retail & Service Expected ($millions) Actual ($millions) In Dollars (millions) As % of Expected Trade Area Pop. Gain or Loss Number of Firms Percent of Total $5.74 $7.41 +$ % 2, % $3.82 $5.79 +$ % 4, % $1.39 $3.06 +$ % 10, % $15.10 $6.82 -$ % -4, % $5.46 $6.44 +$ % 1, % $1.14 $0.88 -$ % -1, % $1.75 $2.36 +$ % 2, % $0.88 $4.52 +$ % 35, % $1.73 $2.82 +$ % 5, % $30.05 $ $ % 1, % $5.52 $3.68 -$ % -2, % $1.52 $1.60 +$ % % $3.04 $3.85 +$ % 2, % $9.08 $ $ % 4, % $1.71 $1.73 +$ % % $0.59 $1.05 +$ % 6, % $61.39 $ $ % 6, % *All retail and service categories are included in Total, including some categories not shown. Therefore, the merchandise groups shown here generally will not sum to Total.

17 Summary of Virginia Retail Trade The chart below depicts the percentage amount Virginia's acutal sales were above or below expected sales in 2005 by merchandise group. Of the 16 merchandise categories with reported data, sales in 13 of the categories were above what would be expected based on the performance in similar-sized Minnesota towns. The strongest merchandise group by this standard is the Apparel category, which has a percent surplus. Overall, Virginia had a retail sales surplus of 80.3 percent in It is important to note that variations in a town's relative retail performance may occur for a variety of reasons, some of which are beyond the control of local policy. Proximity to larger population centers, management, marketing, and transportation patterns are just a few factors that can cause the retail sales of a particular city to deviate substantially from expected sales. It is important that decision-makers consider these influences when constructing policies, plans, or projects. Percentage Above or Below Expected, 2006 Vehicles & Parts Furniture Stores 29.1%+ 51.5%+ Electronics 120.7%+ Building Materials Food, Groceries 17.8%+ Health, Personal Stores Gasoline Stations 34.9%+ Apparel 412.2%+ Leisure Goods General Merchandise Stores 12.1%+ 62.9%+ Miscellaneous Retail 54.8%- 22.8%- 33.3%- Amusement & Recreation Accomodations Eating & Drinking Places Repair, Maintenance Personal Services, Laundry Total Taxable Retail & Service 4.7%+ 26.7%+ 58.3%+ 0.8%+ 79.2%+ 80.3%+ -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% Page 14

18 Comparison of Pull Factors by Merchandise Category 2006 Index of "Pulling Power" Towns with Populations between 7,000 & 10,600 (Range: Population of Virginia +/- ~ 20%.) (24 Cities) Pull Factors Town Population Vehicles, Parts Furniture Stores Building Materials Food Health, Personal Gasoline Stations Apparel Leisure Goods General Merch. Misc. Electronics Amusement Lodging Eating & Drinking Repair, Maint. Personal Services Taxable $ Pull Factor Town name North Branch 10, Fairmont 10, Arden Hills 9, Little Canada 9, Waseca 9, Mound 9, Big Lake 9, Hermantown 9, Waconia 9, Virginia 8, Thief River Falls 8, Grand Rapids 8, Oak Grove 8, Little Falls 8, Detroit Lakes 8, Mahtomedi 8, Orono 7, Baxter 7, East Grand Forks 7, Crookston 7, Unadjusted Average: * * Raw averages; not adjusted for special circumstances. For example, in cities with a college student population that is large relative to overall population, these pull factors may understate the relative strength of the retail sector. While college students are counted as part of the city population, in general they spend less than other city residents in many retail categories. Outliers were considered for calculating typical pull factors used in the expected sales formula. Page 15

19 Comparison of Pull Factors by Merchandise Category 2006 Index of "Pulling Power" Towns with Populations between 7,000 & 10,600 (Range: Population of Virginia +/- ~ 20%.) (24 Cities) Rankings Town Population Vehicles, Parts Furniture Stores Building Materials Food Health, Personal Gasoline Stations Apparel Leisure Goods General Merch. Misc. Electronics Amusement Lodging Eating & Drinking Repair, Maint. Personal Services Taxable $ Pull Factor Town name North Branch # 1 # 14 # 3 # 4 # 6 # 11 # 11 # 3 # 10 # 11 # 11 # 9 # 10 # 16 # 18 # 13 Fairmont # 2 # 8 # 12 # 8 # 11 # 7 # 1 # 10 # 8 # 8 # 8 # 19 # 6 # 7 # 9 # 7 # 15 # 9 Arden Hills # 3 # 4 # 2 # 9 # 3 # 5 # 4 # 13 # 12 # 12 Little Canada # 4 # 10 # 2 # 12 # 17 # 11 # 4 # 5 # 4 # 8 # 2 # 1 # 7 Waseca # 5 # 15 # 10 # 9 # 9 # 11 # 7 # 18 # 16 # 8 # 15 # 8 # 10 # 15 Mound # 6 # 8 # 10 # 16 # 9 # 15 # 17 # 15 # 11 # 18 Big Lake # 7 # 16 # 10 # 12 # 17 # 4 # 19 # 17 # 14 # 17 Hermantown # 8 # 2 # 1 # 2 # 15 # 7 # 3 # 1 # 3 # 4 # 12 # 1 # 19 # 2 Waconia # 9 # 9 # 8 # 7 # 3 # 9 # 14 # 2 # 17 # 13 # 10 # 8 # 14 Virginia # 10 # 6 # 6 # 3 # 8 # 6 # 5 # 6 # 2 # 6 # 4 # 14 # 8 # 5 # 6 # 11 # 7 # 5 Thief River Falls # 11 # 5 # 9 # 5 # 9 # 5 # 3 # 13 # 7 # 13 # 5 # 13 # 9 # 6 # 7 # 12 # 9 # 6 Grand Rapids # 12 # 3 # 5 # 7 # 3 # 1 # 2 # 1 # 4 # 5 # 2 # 10 # 12 # 3 # 2 # 4 # 3 # 3 Oak Grove # 13 # 17 # 13 # 14 # 13 # 17 # 20 # 9 # 17 # 20 Little Falls # 14 # 11 # 10 # 6 # 5 # 3 # 2 # 6 # 12 # 6 # 15 # 14 # 10 # 11 # 14 # 16 # 8 Detroit Lakes # 15 # 7 # 7 # 9 # 4 # 4 # 4 # 5 # 5 # 3 # 12 # 2 # 1 # 3 # 3 # 4 # 4 Mahtomedi # 16 # 13 # 16 # 18 # 16 # 18 # 18 # 5 # 19 Orono # 17 # 4 # 11 # 12 # 10 # 8 # 12 # 7 # 20 # 1 # 16 # 2 # 10 Baxter # 18 # 1 # 1 # 1 # 2 # 4 # 1 # 2 # 1 # 6 # 7 # 2 # 1 # 6 # 6 # 1 East Grand Forks # 19 # 12 # 13 # 15 # 1 # 7 # 10 # 5 # 18 # 13 # 11 Crookston # 20 # 13 # 7 # 14 # 6 # 16 # 15 # 9 # 8 # 13 # 14 # 5 # 20 # 16 Above are all communities in the population range listed in the title with data available by merchandise category. Adjustments for special circumstances may be necessary for accurate comparisons. Page 16

20 Virginia & St. Louis County Comparison, 2006 It is important to review the retail performance for the whole county and not just the town, in isolation. For example, it is common for county seat towns to have above-average retail performance, while the county overall has a leakage of sales. This is usually because the county seat town doesn't have the critical mass of retail to attract the purchases of everyone in the county. By analyzing county data, town business people can develop strategies to recapture some of the sales being lost to other towns. For counties that have a local option sales tax, the analysis of county sales is extremely important, since lost sales are lost tax dollars. A thorough analysis of county sales can help county officials develop more meaningful economic development plans aimed at recapturing the lost sales. The table below shows retail sales and number of firms by merchandise category for Virginia and St. Louis County in Virginia accounted for 7 percent of the county's firms and 6 percent of the county's sales at the time. 94% Share of County 6% Virginia Rest of St. Louis County by Merchandise Category, Virginia & St. Louis County, 2006 Merchandise Category Vehicles & Parts Furniture Stores Electronics Building Materials Food, Groceries Health, Personal Stores Gasoline Stations Apparel Leisure Goods General Merchandise Miscellaneous Retail Non-Store Retailers Amusement & Recreation Accomodations Eating & Drinking Places Repair, Maintenance Personal Service, Laundry Total * Virginia Taxable ($millions) Number of Firms St. Louis County Taxable ($millions) City's Share of County Total Number of Firms Firms $ $ % 7.9% $ $ % 6.6% $ $ % 9.2% $ $ % 8.2% $ $ % 8.4% $ $ % 10.9% $ $ % 9.2% $ $ % 9.3% $ $ % 6.4% $ $ % 8.2% $ $ % 6.4% $ $ % 7.2% $ $ % 6.4% $ $ % 3.7% $ $ % 7.3% $ $ % 3.9% $ $ % 8.8% $ $1, , % 6.6% Page 17

21 Total Taxable and Gross Retail Eveleth Retail Trade Overview The table below presents gross and taxable retail and services sales for Eveleth from 1990 through Taxable sales in Eveleth declined 11.9 percent from 1996 to 2006, while the number of firms fell 46.3 percent. Statewide, taxable sales increased 59.4 percent over the same time period and the number of firms rose 7.9 percent. The per capita sales and pull factor data in this table are based on taxable sales, the more verified sales measure. The table also presents sales data in constant 2006 dollars. These figures have been adjusted for inflation to reflect their value in For example, in 1990, taxable sales in Eveleth totaled $11.63 million, an amount worth $17.89 million in 2006 dollars. In constant dollars, gross sales fell 19.3 percent between 1996 and Constant dollar taxable sales decreased 31.3 percent over the same time period Current Dollars Constant 2006 Dollars Year Estimated Population Gross * Taxable ($millions) ($millions) Gross * ($millions) Taxable ($millions) Number of Firms Per Capita Pull Factor ,078 $23.32 $11.63 $35.88 $ $2, ,054 $24.40 $10.41 $35.89 $ $2, ,038 $27.47 $10.67 $39.24 $ $2, ,998 $27.04 $11.54 $37.56 $ $2, ,948 $30.33 $14.02 $40.98 $ $3, ,901 $33.57 $15.71 $44.17 $ $4, ,868 $31.06 $14.34 $39.82 $ $3, ,847 NA NA NA NA NA $0 NA ,797 $40.29 $19.70 $49.74 $ $5, ,765 NA NA NA NA NA $0 NA ,865 $40.97 $20.81 $47.63 $ $5, ,814 NA NA NA NA NA $0 NA ,781 NA NA NA NA NA $0 NA ,742 $23.34 $11.58 $25.65 $ $3, ,709 $30.54 $14.32 $32.49 $ $3, ,653 $33.65 $13.62 $34.69 $ $3, ,610 $32.15 $12.63 $32.15 $ $3, yr Change '96 to '06-6.7% 3.5% -11.9% -19.3% -31.3% -46.3% -5.6% -34.2% 3 yr Change '03 to '06-3.5% 37.7% 9.1% 25.3% -0.7% 5.8% 13.1% 5.1% *Gross sales figures are self-reported by firms and not audited by the Dept. of Revenue for accuracy. Eveleth: Total Retail $45.0 $40.0 $Millions Total : Gross vs. Taxable $60.0 $Millions Gross : Current$ vs. Constant$ $35.0 $50.0 $30.0 $40.0 $25.0 $20.0 $30.0 $15.0 $20.0 $10.0 $5.0 $10.0 $ Year $ Year Taxable Gross Constant $ Current $ Page 1

22 Eveleth Components of Change, 2003 to 2006 Category Taxable 2003 Taxable 2006 Dollar Change Percent Change Vehicles & Parts NA NA NA NA Furniture Stores NA NA NA NA Electronics NA NA NA NA Building Materials NA NA NA NA Food, Groceries $1,679,342 $1,363,665 -$315, % Health, Personal Stores NA NA NA NA Gasoline Stations $1,150,231 NA NA NA Apparel NA NA NA NA Leisure Goods NA $2,988,129 NA NA General Merchandise Stores NA NA NA NA Miscellaneous Retail $5,792,359 $4,998,926 -$793, % Accomodations NA NA NA NA Eating & Drinking $2,656,560 $2,825,446 +$168, % Total Retail and Services $11,576,247 $12,633,362 +$1,057, % Figures not adjusted for inflation. Dollar Changes by Category (in Millions) 2003 to $0.17 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA -$0.32 -$0.79 Parts Furn. Elec. Bldg.Mat Food Health Gas St. Cloth Leis. GenMer. Misc. Hotel Eat Page 2

23 Historical Trends By Merchandise Category Eveleth The following tables and charts depict pull factors in Eveleth from 1990 to 2000* by merchandise category. Pull factors are a measure of trade area size that provide a useful measure of changes over time because they account for changes in population and state-wide industry trends. Category Descriptions Building Materials: Includes retail establishments primarily engaged in selling lumber and other building materials; paint, glass, and wallpaper; hardware; nursery stock; and lawn and garden supplies. General Merchandise: Includes retail stores which sell a number of lines of merchandise, such as dry goods, apparel and accessories, furniture and home furnishings, small wares, hardware, and food. The stores included in this group are known as department stores, variety stores, general merchandise stores, catalog showrooms, warehouse clubs, and general stores. Food: This group is comprised of retail stores primarily engaged in selling food for home preparation and consumption. Apparel: Retail stores primarily engaged in selling clothing of all kinds and related articles for personal wear and adornment. Not included are establishments which meet the criteria for Department Stores even though most of their receipts are from the sale of apparel and apparel accessories. Pull Factor Year Pull Factors by Merchandise Category (1 of 3) Year Building Materials General Merchandise Food Apparel Pull Factors by Merchandise Category Eveleth, Building Materials General Merchandise Food Apparel NA 0.52 NA NA 0.43 NA 1992 NA NA 0.60 NA 1993 NA NA 0.49 NA 1994 NA NA 0.63 NA 1995 NA NA 0.66 NA 1996 NA NA 0.67 NA 1997 NA NA NA NA 1998 NA NA 1.05 NA 1999 NA NA NA NA NA 1.03 NA % Change, '90 to ' % NA 96.49% NA *Due to a change in how firms are categorized beginning with fiscal year 2003, only data through fiscal year 2000 are presented in this section. % Change, '98 to '00 NA NA -2.15% These pull factors are calculated using taxable sales. Although taxable sales do not capture the full extent of sales in stores with a large number of un-taxed goods, like grocery and apparel stores, these data are audite by the Minnesota Department of Revenue. Since sales tax laws apply statewide, all cities are compared on the same basis. Page 3 NA

24 Historical Trends By Merchandise Category Eveleth The following tables and charts depict pull factors in Eveleth from 1990 to 2000* by merchandise category. Pull factors are a measure of trade area size that provide a useful measure of changes over time because they account for changes in population and state-wide industry trends. Category Descriptions Furniture: This group includes retail stores selling goods used for furnishing the home such as furniture, floor coverings, draperies, glass and chinaware, domestic stoves, refrigerators, and other household electric and gas appliances. Automotive: Establishments selling new and used automobiles, boats, recreational vehicles and utility trailers, and motorcycles and mopeds; dealers selling new automobile parts and accessories; and gasoline service stations. Eating & Drinking: This major group includes retail establishments engaged in selling prepared food and drinks for consumption on the premises. Also included are caterers which serve prepared food other than at the place of business and lunch counters and refreshment stands selling prepared foods and drinks for immediate consumption. Pull Factor Pull Factors by Merchandise Category (2 of 3) Year Furniture Automotive Eating & Drinking Misc. Retail Pull Factors by Merchandise Category Eveleth, Miscellaneous Retail: This category includes retail establishments not elsewhere classified. These establishments fall into the following categories: liquor stores; used merchandise stores; miscellaneous shopping goods stores; nonstore retailers, fuel dealers, florists, cigar stores and stands, news dealers and newsstands, and miscellaneous retail stores not elsewhere classified. Year Furniture Automotive Eating & Drinking Misc. Retail NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA % Change, '90 to ' % 23.01% 54.18% % *Due to a change in how firms are categorized beginning with fiscal year 2003, only data through fiscal year 2000 are presented in this section. % Change, '98 to ' % % 20.74% % These pull factors are calculated using taxable sales. Although taxable sales do not capture the full extent of sales in stores with a large number of un-taxed goods, like grocery and apparel stores, these data are audited by the Minnesota Department of Revenue. Since sales tax laws apply statewide, all cities are compared on the same basis. Page 4

25 Historical Trends By Merchandise Category Eveleth The following tables and charts depict pull factors in Eveleth from 1990 to 2000* by merchandise category. Pull factors are a measure of trade area size that provide a useful measure of changes over time because they account for changes in population and state-wide industry trends. Category Descriptions Lodging: Includes establishments engaged in providing lodging, or lodging and meals, and camping facilities. Personal Services: includes establishments primarily engaged in providing services generally to individuals such as barber and beauty shops, drycleaning plants, laundries, and photographic studios. Business Services: Includes establishments primarily engaged in providing services, not elsewhere classified, to business establishments on a contract or fee basis. Automobile Services: Includes establishments primarily engaged in furnishing automotive repair, rental, leasing, parking, and other services. Pull Factor Pull Factors by Merchandise Category (3 of 3) Year Lodging Personal Services Business Services Automobile Services Amusement & Recreation Pull Factors by Merchandise Category Eveleth, Amusement and Recreation: This group includes establishments primarily engaged in providing amusement, recreation, or entertainment services, not elsewhere classified. Year Lodging Personal Services Business Services Automobile Services Amusement & Recreation NA NA 1993 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1999 NA NA NA NA NA NA % Change, '90 to ' % % % % NA % Change, '98 to ' % 6.62% % % NA *Due to a change in how firms are categorized beginning with fiscal year 2003, only data through fiscal year 2000 are presented in this section. These pull factors are calculated using taxable sales. Although taxable sales do not capture the full extent of sales in stores with a large number of un-taxed goods, like grocery and apparel stores, these data are audited by the Minnesota Department of Revenue. Since sales tax laws apply statewide, all cities are compared on the same basis. Page 5

26 Recent Trends By Merchandise Category Eveleth The following tables and charts depict pull factors in Eveleth from 2003 to 2006* by merchandise category. Pull factors are a measure of trade area size that provide a useful measure of changes over time because they account for changes in population and state-wide industry trends. Pull Factor by NAICS Merchandise Category (1 of 2) Pull Factors Vehicles & Parts Furniture Electronics Building Materials Food Health & Personal Gas Stations Apparel Leisure Goods NAICS Category Descriptions Motor Vehicles & Parts: Establishments that sell new & used autos, boats, motorcycles, golf carts, RV's, campers, trailers, tires, and parts. Furniture: Stores that sell furniture, beds, carpeting, window coverings, lamps, china, kitchenware, & woodburning stoves. Electronics: Establishments primarily engaged in retailing household-type appliances, sewing machines, cameras, computers, and other electronic goods. Building Materials: Establishments that sell lumber, hardware, paint, wallpaper, tile, hardwood floors, roofing, fencing, ceiling fans, lawn equipment, garden centers, and feed stores. Food: Grocery stores, deli's, bakery, & butcher shops that sell food to be prepared at home. Liquor stores. Health & Personal: Pharmacies, food supplements, vision supplies, cosmetics, & hearing aid stores. Gas Stations: Retailers that sell fuel along with convenience store items. Apparel: New clothing and accessories, jewelry, shoes, bridal shops, clock shops, and luggage stores. Leisure Goods: Sporting goods, books, music, hobby stores, fabric shops, and toy stores. *Caution should be used when comparing pull factors before 2003 to those in later years due to the switch from SIC to NAICS. Page 6

27 Recent Trends By Merchandise Category Eveleth The following tables and charts depict pull factors in Eveleth from 2003 to 2006* by merchandise category. Pull factors are a measure of trade area size that provide a useful measure of changes over time because they account for changes in population and state-wide industry trends Pull Factor by NAICS Merchandise Category (2 of 2) Pull Factors Gen. Merch. Misc. Store Non-Store Retail Amusement Lodging Eating & Drinking Repair Personal Services NAICS Category Descriptions General Merchandise: Establishments that sell a mixed line of goods. Examples are department stores, supercenters, and dollar stores. Miscellaneous Store Retailers: Stores not covered in other categories such as florists, office supplies, pets, antiques, tobacco, art, used merchandise, and trophies. Non-Store Retail: Retailers that do not use stores. This includes mail order, internet selling, bazaars, vending machines, fuel oil dealers, firewood dealers, door-to-door sales, and produce stands. Amusement: Establishments such as golf courses, bowling lanes, marinas, amusement parks, water parks, shooting ranges, pool halls, horseback riding, ballrooms, health club facilities, ski hills, and casinos. Lodging: Seasonal resorts, hotels, boarding houses, bed & breakfast, campgrounds, RV parks. Eating & Drinking: Restaurants, donut shops, coffee house, cafeteria, caterers, taverns, and nightclubs, Repair: Businesses that return equipment to working order. Examples: cars, lawnmowers, small engines, knives, shoes, computers, furniture, and appliances. Personal Services: Barbers, beauty salons, tanning facilities, funeral homes, laundromats, dry cleaners, pet groomers, kennels, and photo finishing. *Caution should be used when comparing pull factors before 2003 to those in later years due to the switch from SIC to NAICS. Page 7

28 Comparison with Competing Centers Eveleth $350.0 Gross Retail & Service (in millions) 2.50 Pull Factors $ $250.0 $ $ $ $50.0 $ Fiscal Year Eveleth Ely Fiscal Year Chisholm Virginia Information about competing trade centers can provide a useful means of comparison when assessing a community's retail trade sector. Comparison towns were selected based on geographic proximity, relative size and availability of data. Some caution is warranted in the interpretation of these comparisons however, since retail sales data is provided for only a limited number of towns and cities. Comparison with Competing Trade Centers, 2006 Town Eveleth Chisholm Ely Virginia Population Gross ($millions) Taxable ($millions) Number of Firms Per Capita Taxable Pull Factor (Taxable ) 3,610 $32.15 $ $3, ,634 $31.95 $ $2, ,595 $73.72 $ $9, ,550 $ $ $12, Page 8

29 Trade Area Analysis of Retail Eveleth The following tables provide information on retail sales by merchandise category. "Expected sales" is a standard to which actual performance is compared. In calculating expected sales, population, income, and typical "pulling power" characteristics are taken into account. Expected sales can be used as a guideline or "par value" in analyzing retail strength. Deviations from these norms can be analyzed to first judge whether they should be considered relevant. If the differences appear to be significant (whether in dollar amounts or relatively with percentages), additional consideration is merited. Categories with undesirable performance may be further examined for potential corrective action. It is also important to determine whether or not the situation is relatively uncontrollable due to external or extenuating circumstances. In cases of favorable differences from expectations, the positive aspects should be identified and built upon. Trade Area Analysis by Merchandise Category, 2006 Variance Between Actual & Expected Merchandise Group Vehicles & Parts Furniture Stores Electronics Building Materials Food, Groceries Health, Personal Stores Gasoline Stations Apparel Leisure Goods General Merchandise Stores Miscellaneous Retail Amusement & Recreation Accomodations Eating & Drinking Places Repair, Maintenance Personal Services, Laundry Total Taxable Retail & Service Expected ($millions) Actual ($millions) In Dollars (millions) As % of Expected Trade Area Pop. Gain or Loss Number of Firms Percent of Total $3.11 NA NA NA NA NA NA $2.28 NA NA NA NA NA NA $0.92 NA NA NA NA NA NA $4.02 NA NA NA NA NA NA $3.42 $1.36 -$ % -2, % $0.12 NA NA NA NA NA NA $0.97 NA NA NA NA NA NA $0.75 NA NA NA NA NA NA $2.39 $2.99 +$ % % $3.21 NA NA NA NA NA NA $3.41 $5.00 +$ % 1, % $0.44 NA NA NA NA NA NA $1.70 NA NA NA NA NA NA $5.68 $2.83 -$ % -1, % $1.22 $0.06 -$ % -3, % $0.68 $0.02 -$ % -3, % $25.56 $ $ % -1, % *All retail and service categories are included in Total, including some categories not shown. Therefore, the merchandise groups shown here generally will not sum to Total.

30 Summary of Eveleth Retail Trade The chart below depicts the percentage amount Eveleth's acutal sales were above or below expected sales in 2005 by merchandise group. Of the 6 merchandise categories with reported data, sales in 2 of the categories were above what would be expected based on the performance in similar-sized Minnesota towns. The strongest merchandise group by this standard is the Miscellaneous Retail category, which has a 46.5 percent surplus. Overall, Eveleth had a retail sales leakage of 50.6 percent in It is important to note that variations in a town's relative retail performance may occur for a variety of reasons, some of which are beyond the control of local policy. Proximity to larger population centers, management, marketing, and transportation patterns are just a few factors that can cause the retail sales of a particular city to deviate substantially from expected sales. It is important that decision-makers consider these influences when constructing policies, plans, or projects. Percentage Above or Below Expected, 2006 Vehicles & Parts Furniture Stores Electronics Building Materials NA NA NA NA Food, Groceries Health, Personal Stores Gasoline Stations Apparel NA NA NA Leisure Goods 25.1%+ General Merchandise Stores NA Miscellaneous Retail 46.5%+ Amusement & Recreation Accomodations NA NA Eating & Drinking Places Repair, Maintenance Personal Services, Laundry Total Taxable Retail & Service 60.1%- 50.3%- 95.4%- 97.8%- 50.6%- -120% -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% Page 10

31 Comparison of Pull Factors by Merchandise Category 2006 Index of "Pulling Power" Towns with Populations between 2,500 & 4,900 (Range: Population of Eveleth +/- ~ 30%.) (7 Cities) Pull Factors Town Population Vehicles, Parts Furniture Stores Building Materials Food Health, Personal Gasoline Stations Apparel Leisure Goods General Merch. Misc. Electronics Amusement Lodging Eating & Drinking Repair, Maint. Personal Services Taxable $ Pull Factor Town name Chisholm 4, Luverne 4, Pipestone 4, Wayzata 3, Eveleth 3, Ely 3, Two Harbors 3, Unadjusted Average: * ** ** ** ** 2.03 ** ** ** ** ** 2.76 ** ** * Raw averages; not adjusted for special circumstances. For example, in cities with a college student population that is large relative to overall population, these pull factors may understate the relative strength of the retail sector. While college students are counted as part of the city population, in general they spend less than other city residents in many retail categories. Outliers were considered for calculating typical pull factors used in the expected sales formula. ** Too few observations in this population range for a robust average. Page 11

32 Comparison of Pull Factors by Merchandise Category 2006 Index of "Pulling Power" Towns with Populations between 2,500 & 4,900 (Range: Population of Eveleth +/- ~ 30%.) (7 Cities) Rankings Town Population Vehicles, Parts Furniture Stores Building Materials Food Health, Personal Gasoline Stations Apparel Leisure Goods General Merch. Misc. Electronics Amusement Lodging Eating & Drinking Repair, Maint. Personal Services Taxable $ Pull Factor Town name Chisholm # 1 # 6 # 3 # 7 # 7 # 6 # 2 # 7 Luverne # 2 # 3 # 2 # 3 # 5 # 4 # 2 # 5 # 2 # 2 # 5 # 5 # 6 # 4 Pipestone # 3 # 4 # 1 # 4 # 2 # 4 # 1 # 6 # 3 # 3 # 3 # 3 # 5 # 3 Wayzata # 4 # 1 # 1 # 1 # 1 # 1 # 1 # 1 # 1 # 1 # 1 # 1 # 1 # 1 Eveleth # 5 # 7 # 3 # 3 # 6 # 7 # 7 # 6 Ely # 6 # 2 # 3 # 2 # 2 # 2 # 1 # 1 # 2 # 4 # 4 # 2 Two Harbors # 7 # 2 # 4 # 2 # 3 # 4 # 4 # 4 # 4 # 4 # 2 # 3 # 5 Above are all communities in the population range listed in the title with data available by merchandise category. Adjustments for special circumstances may be necessary for accurate comparisons. Page 12

33 Eveleth & St. Louis County Comparison, 2006 It is important to review the retail performance for the whole county and not just the town, in isolation. For example, it is common for county seat towns to have above-average retail performance, while the county overall has a leakage of sales. This is usually because the county seat town doesn't have the critical mass of retail to attract the purchases of everyone in the county. By analyzing county data, town business people can develop strategies to recapture some of the sales being lost to other towns. For counties that have a local option sales tax, the analysis of county sales is extremely important, since lost sales are lost tax dollars. A thorough analysis of county sales can help county officials develop more meaningful economic development plans aimed at recapturing the lost sales. The table below shows retail sales and number of firms by merchandise category for Eveleth and St. Louis County in Eveleth accounted for 1 percent of the county's firms and 1 percent of the county's sales at the time. Share of County 1% 99% Eveleth Rest of St. Louis County by Merchandise Category, Eveleth & St. Louis County, 2006 Merchandise Category Vehicles & Parts Furniture Stores Electronics Building Materials Food, Groceries Health, Personal Stores Gasoline Stations Apparel Leisure Goods General Merchandise Miscellaneous Retail Non-Store Retailers Amusement & Recreation Accomodations Eating & Drinking Places Repair, Maintenance Personal Service, Laundry Total * Eveleth Taxable ($millions) Number of Firms St. Louis County Taxable ($millions) City's Share of County Total Number of Firms Firms NA NA $ NA NA NA NA $ NA NA NA NA $ NA NA NA NA $ NA NA $ $ % 3.4% NA NA $ NA NA NA NA $ NA NA NA NA $ NA NA $ $ % 1.6% NA NA $ NA NA $ $ % 3.2% $ $ % 3.2% NA NA $ NA NA NA NA $ NA NA $ $ % 3.5% $ $ % 1.1% $ $ % 1.6% $ $1, , % 1.3% Page 13

34 St. Louis County Retail Trade Overview Total Taxable and Gross Retail The table below presents gross and taxable retail and services sales for St. Louis County from 1990 through Taxable sales in St. Louis County increased 94 percent from 1996 to 2006, while the number of firms fell 0.7 percent. Statewide, taxable sales increased 59.4 percent over the same time period and the number of firms rose 7.9 percent. The per capita sales and pull factor data in this table are based on taxable sales, the more verified sales measure. The table also presents sales data in constant 2006 dollars. These figures have been adjusted for inflation to reflect their value in For example, in 1990, taxable sales in St. Louis County totaled $ million, an amount worth $ million in 2006 dollars. In constant dollars, gross sales grew 49.1 percent between 1996 and Constant dollar taxable sales increased 51.3 percent over the same time period Current Dollars Constant 2006 Dollars Year Estimated Population Gross * Taxable ($millions) ($millions) Gross * ($millions) Taxable ($millions) Number of Firms Per Capita Pull Factor ,232 $1, $ $2, $1, ,621 $3, ,761 $1, $ $2, $1, ,784 $4, ,122 $1, $ $2, $1, ,682 $3, ,287 $1, $ $2, $1, ,825 $4, ,692 $2, $ $2, $1, ,693 $4, ,006 $2, $ $2, $1, ,549 $4, ,556 $2, $1, $2, $1, ,705 $5, ,687 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA ,463 $2, $1, $3, $1, ,675 $5, ,433 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA ,528 $2, $1, $3, $1, ,560 $6, ,959 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA ,983 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA ,799 $3, $1, $4, $1, ,711 $8, ,136 $3, $1, $4, $1, ,757 $9, ,179 $4, $1, $4, $1, ,716 $9, ,067 $4, $1, $4, $1, ,672 $10, yr Change '96 to '06 0.8% 91.1% 94.0% 49.1% 51.3% -0.7% 92.5% 34.2% 3 yr Change '03 to '06-1.4% 19.2% 15.6% 8.5% 5.2% -0.8% 17.2% 8.9% *Gross sales figures are self-reported by firms and not audited by the Dept. of Revenue for accuracy. St. Louis County: Total Retail $5,000.0 $4,500.0 $4,000.0 $3,500.0 $3,000.0 $2,500.0 $2,000.0 $1,500.0 $1,000.0 $500.0 $0.0 Total $Millions Year $5,000.0 $4,500.0 $4,000.0 $3,500.0 $3,000.0 $2,500.0 $2,000.0 $1,500.0 $1,000.0 $500.0 $0.0 Gross $Millions Year Taxable Gross Constant $ Current $ Page 18

35 Category St. Louis County Components of Change, 2003 to 2006 Taxable 2003 Taxable 2006 Dollar Change Percent Change Vehicles & Parts $65,566,244 $71,460,031 +$5,893, % Furniture Stores $45,702,483 $48,659,750 +$2,957, % Electronics $59,498,716 $64,897,624 +$5,398, % Building Materials $181,809,605 $211,658,675 +$29,849, % Food, Groceries $93,475,923 $88,760,383 -$4,715, % Health, Personal Stores $18,008,101 $19,592,504 +$1,584, % Gasoline Stations $57,194,558 $36,673,868 -$20,520, % Apparel $26,811,272 $32,378,784 +$5,567, % Leisure Goods $60,971,345 $64,867,352 +$3,896, % General Merchandise Stores $244,469,314 $240,896,124 -$3,573, % Miscellaneous Retail $74,215,774 $79,988,591 +$5,772, % Accomodations $83,744,008 $93,891,582 +$10,147, % Eating & Drinking Places $202,440,101 $232,738,390 +$30,298, % Total Retail and Services $1,726,160,882 $1,995,350,288 +$269,189, % Figures not adjusted for inflation. Dollar Changes by Category (in Millions) $ $ $5.89 +$5.40 +$2.96 +$1.58 +$5.57 +$3.90 +$5.77 +$ $4.72 -$3.57 -$20.52 Parts Furn. Elect. Bldg. Food Health GasSt. Clothes Leis. GenMer. Misc. Hotel Eat Page 19

36 Pull Factors By Merchandise Category St. Louis County The following tables and charts depict pull factors in St. Louis County from 1990 to 2000* by merchandise category. Pull factors are a measure of trade area size that provide a useful measure of changes over time because they account for changes in population and state-wide industry trends. Category Descriptions Building Materials: Includes retail establishments primarily engaged in selling lumber and other building materials; paint, glass, and wallpaper; hardware; nursery stock; and lawn and garden supplies. General Merchandise: Includes retail stores which sell a number of lines of merchandise, such as dry goods, apparel and accessories, furniture and home furnishings, small wares, hardware, and food. The stores included in this group are known as department stores, variety stores, general merchandise stores, catalog showrooms, warehouse clubs, and general stores. Food: This group is comprised of retail stores primarily engaged in selling food for home preparation and consumption. Apparel: Retail stores primarily engaged in selling clothing of all kinds and related articles for personal wear and adornment. Not included are establishments which meet the criteria for Department Stores even though most of their receipts are from the sale of apparel and apparel accessories. Pull Factor Pull Factors by Merchandise Category (1 of 3) Year Building Materials Food Pull Factors by Merchandise Category St. Louis County, General Merchandise Apparel Year Building Materials General Merchandise Food Apparel NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA % Change, '90 to ' % -5.33% -0.64% % *Due to a change in how firms are categorized beginning with fiscal year 2003, only data through fiscal year 2000 are presented in this section. % Change, '98 to ' % -0.87% -8.14% % These pull factors are calculated using taxable sales. Although taxable sales do not capture the full extent of sales in stores with a large number of un-taxed goods, like grocery and apparel stores, these data are audited by the Minnesota Department of Revenue. Since sales tax laws apply statewide, all cities are compared on the same basis. Page 20

37 Pull Factors By Merchandise Category St. Louis County The following tables and charts depict pull factors in St. Louis County from 1990 to 2000* by merchandise category. Pull factors are a measure of trade area size that provide a useful measure of changes over time because they account for changes in population and state-wide industry trends. Category Descriptions Furniture: This group includes retail stores selling goods used for furnishing the home such as furniture, floor coverings, draperies, glass and chinaware, domestic stoves, refrigerators and other household electric and gas appliances. Automotive: Establishments selling new and used automobiles, boats, recreational vehicles and utility trailers, and motorcycles and mopeds; dealers selling new automobile parts and accessories; and gasoline service stations. Eating & Drinking: This major group includes retail establishments engaged in selling prepared food and drinks for consumption on the premises. Also included are caterers which serve prepared food other than at the place of business and lunch counters and refreshment stands selling prepared foods and drinks for immediate consumption. Miscellaneous Retail: This category includes retail establishments not elsewhere classified. These establishments fall into the following categories: liquor stores; used merchandise stores; miscellaneous shopping goods stores; nonstore retailers, fuel dealers, florists, cigar stores and stands, news dealers and newsstands, and miscellaneous retail stores not elsewhere classified. Pull Factor Pull Factors by Merchandise Category (2 of 3) Year Furniture Automotive Eating & Drinking Misc. Retail Pull Factors by Merchandise Category St. Louis County, Year Furniture Automotive Eating & Drinking Misc. Retail NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA % Change, '90 to ' % -6.91% -5.96% 15.84% *Due to a change in how firms are categorized beginning with fiscal year 2003, only data through fiscal year 2000 are presented in this section. % Change, '98 to ' % -4.57% -6.59% -1.26% These pull factors are calculated using taxable sales. Although taxable sales do not capture the full extent of sales in stores with a large number of un-taxed goods, like grocery and apparel stores, these data are audited by the Minnesota Department of Revenue. Since sales tax laws apply statewide, all cities are compared on the same basis. Page 21

38 Pull Factors By Merchandise Category St. Louis County The following tables and charts depict pull factors in St. Louis County from 1990 to 2000* by merchandise category. Pull factors are a measure of trade area size that provide a useful measure of changes over time because they account for changes in population and state-wide industry trends. Category Descriptions Lodging: Includes establishments engaged in providing lodging, or lodging and meals, and camping facilities. Personal Services: includes establishments primarily engaged in providing services generally to individuals such as barber and beauty shops, drycleaning plants, laundries, and photographic studios. Business Services: Includes establishments primarily engaged in providing services, not elsewhere classified, to business establishments on a contract or fee basis. Automobile Services: Includes establishments primarily engaged in furnishing automotive repair, rental, leasing, parking, and other services. Pull Factor Pull Factors by Merchandise Category (3 of 3) Year Lodging Personal Services Business Services Automobile Services Amusement & Recreation Pull Factors by Merchandise Category St. Louis County, Amusement and Recreation: This group includes establishments primarily engaged in providing amusement, recreation, or entertainment services, not elsewhere classified. Year Lodging Personal Services Business Services Automobile Services Amusement & Recreation NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA % Change, '90 to ' % 9.04% % 9.68% % *Due to a change in how firms are categorized beginning with fiscal year 2003, only data through fiscal year 2000 are presented in this section. % Change, '98 to ' % 3.64% 0.10% 10.18% 9.03% These pull factors are calculated using taxable sales. Although taxable sales do not capture the full extent of sales in stores with a large number of un-taxed goods, like grocery and apparel stores, these data are audited by the Minnesota Department of Revenue. Since sales tax laws apply statewide, all cities are compared on the same basis. Page 22

39 Pull Factors By Merchandise Category St. Louis County The following tables and charts depict pull factors in St. Louis County from 2003 to 2006* by merchandise category. Pull factors are a measure of trade area size that provide a useful measure of changes over time because they account for changes in population and state-wide industry trends. Pull Factor by NAICS Merchandise Category (1 of 2) Pull Factors Vehicles & Parts Furniture Electronics Building Materials Food Health & Personal Gas Stations Apparel Leisure Goods NAICS Category Descriptions Motor Vehicles & Parts: Establishments that sell new & used autos, boats, motorcycles, golf carts, RV's, campers, trailers, tires, and parts. Furniture: Stores that sell furniture, beds, carpeting, window coverings, lamps, china, kitchenware, & woodburning stoves. Electronics: Establishments primarily engaged in retailing household-type appliances, sewing machines, cameras, computers, and other electronic goods. Building Materials: Establishments that sell lumber, hardware, paint, wallpaper, tile, hardwood floors, roofing, fencing, ceiling fans, lawn equipment, garden centers, and feed stores. Food: Grocery stores, deli's, bakery, & butcher shops that sell food to be prepared at home. Liquor stores. Health & Personal: Pharmacies, food supplements, vision supplies, cosmetics, & hearing aid stores. Gas Stations: Retailers that sell fuel along with convenience store items. Apparel: New clothing and accessories, jewelry, shoes, bridal shops, clock shops, and luggage stores. Leisure Goods: Sporting goods, books, music, hobby stores, fabric shops, and toy stores. *Caution should be used when comparing pull factors before 2003 to those in later years due to the switch from SIC to NAICS. Page 23

40 Recent Trends By Merchandise Category St. Louis County The following tables and charts depict pull factors in St. Louis County from 2003 to 2006* by merchandise category. Pull factors are a measure of trade area size that provide a useful measure of changes over time because they account for changes in population and state-wide industry trends Pull Factor by NAICS Merchandise Category (2 of 2) Pull Factors Gen. Merch. Misc. Store Non-Store Retail Amusement Lodging Eating & Drinking Repair Personal Services NAICS Category Descriptions General Merchandise: Establishments that sell a mixed line of goods. Examples are department stores, supercenters, and dollar stores. Miscellaneous Store Retailers: Stores not covered in other categories such as florists, office supplies, pets, antiques, tobacco, art, used merchandise, and trophies. Non-Store Retail: Retailers that do not use stores. This includes mail order, internet selling, bazaars, vending machines, fuel oil dealers, firewood dealers, door-to-door sales, and produce stands. Amusement: Establishments such as golf courses, bowling lanes, marinas, amusement parks, water parks, shooting ranges, pool halls, horseback riding, ballrooms, health club facilities, ski hills, and casinos. Lodging: Seasonal resorts, hotels, boarding houses, bed & breakfast, campgrounds, RV parks. Eating & Drinking: Restaurants, donut shops, coffee house, cafeteria, caterers, taverns, and nightclubs, Repair: Businesses that return equipment to working order. Examples: cars, lawnmowers, small engines, knives, shoes, computers, furniture, and appliances. Personal Services: Barbers, beauty salons, tanning facilities, funeral homes, laundromats, dry cleaners, pet groomers, kennels, and photo finishing. *Caution should be used when comparing pull factors before 2003 to those in later years due to the switch from SIC to NAICS. Page 24

41 Comparison with Neighboring Counties St. Louis County Gross Retail and Service (in millions) 1.20 Pull Factors $5,000.0 $4,500.0 $4,000.0 $3,500.0 $3,000.0 $2,500.0 $2,000.0 $1,500.0 $1,000.0 $500.0 $ Fiscal Year St. Louis County Carlton County Koochiching County Fiscal Year Aitkin County Itasca County Lake County Comparison with Neighboring Counties, 2006 Town St. Louis County Aitkin County Carlton County Itasca County Koochiching County Lake County Population Gross ($millions) Taxable ($millions) Number of Firms Per Capita Taxable Pull Factor (Taxable ) 196,067 $4, $1, $10, ,149 $ $ $5, ,116 $ $ $4, ,729 $ $ $6, ,658 $ $ $6, ,966 $ $ $5, Page 25

42 Trade Area Analysis of Retail St. Louis County The following tables provide information on retail sales by merchandise category. "Potential sales" is a standard to which actual performance is compared. In calculating potential sales, population and income characteristics are taken into account. Potential sales can be used as a guideline or "par value" in analyzing retail strength. Deviations from these norms can be analyzed to first judge whether they should be considered relevant. If the differences appear to be significant (whether in dollar amounts or relatively with percentages), additional consideration is merited. Categories with undesirable performance may be further examined for potential corrective action. It is also important to determine whether or not the situation is relatively uncontrollable due to external or extenuating circumstances. In cases of favorable differences from expectations, the positive aspects should be identified and built upon. Trade Area Analysis by Merchandise Category, 2006 Variance Between Actual & Potential Merchandise Group Vehicles & Parts Furniture Stores Electronics Building Materials Food, Groceries Health, Personal Stores Gasoline Stations Apparel Leisure Goods General Merchandise Stores Miscellaneous Retail Amusement & Recreation Accomodations Eating & Drinking Places Repair, Maintenance Personal Services, Laundry Total Taxable Retail & Service Potential ($millions) Actual ($millions) In Dollars (millions) As % of Expected Trade Area Pop. Gain or Loss Number of Firms Percent of Total $67.84 $ $ % 10, % $53.55 $ $ % -17, % $70.23 $ $ % -14, % $ $ $ % 35, % $91.34 $ $ % -5, % $16.71 $ $ % 33, % $25.84 $ $ % 82, % $27.92 $ $ % 31, % $44.38 $ $ % 90, % $37.07 $ $ % 1,078, % $9.69 $ $ % 1,422, % $44.01 $ $ % -37, % $51.48 $ $ % 161, % $ $ $ % 25, % $34.03 $ $ % -6, % $26.39 $ $ % -71, % $1, $1, $ % 47,786 4, % *All retail and service categories are included in Total, including some categories not shown. Therefore, the merchandise groups shown here generally will not sum to Total. Page 26

43 Summary of St. Louis County Retail Trade The chart below depicts the percentage amount St. Louis County's acutal sales were above or below potential sales in 2006 by merchandise group. Of the 16 merchandise categories with reported data, sales in 10 of the categories were above what would be expected based on the county's population and income characteristics as well as statewide spending patterns. The strongest merchandise group by this standard is the Miscellaneous Retail category, which has a percent surplus. Overall, St. Louis County had a retail sales surplus of 24.2 percent. It is important to note that variations in a county's relative retail performance may occur for a variety of reasons, some of which are beyond the control of local policy. Proximity to larger population centers, management, marketing, and transportation patterns are just a few factors that can cause the retail sales of a particular county to deviate substantially from potential sales. It is important that decision-makers consider these influences when constructing policies, plans, or projects. Percentage Above or Below Potential, 2006 Vehicles & Parts 5.3%+ Furniture Stores Electronics Building Materials 18.1%+ Food, Groceries Health, Personal Stores Gasoline Stations Apparel Leisure Goods 17.2%+ 41.9%+ 16.0%+ 46.2%+ General Merchandise Stores 549.9%+ Miscellaneous Retail 725.6%+ Amusement & Recreation Accomodations Eating & Drinking Places 13.1%+ 82.4%+ Repair, Maintenance Personal Services, Laundry 9.1%- 7.6%- 2.8%- 19.2%- 3.1%- 36.5%- Total Taxable Retail & Service 24.2%+ -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 600% 700% 800% Page 27

44 St. Louis County Retail Trade Surplus or Leakage 25% County Surplus or Leakage as a Percent of Potential 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Population Estimate Index of Income Potential (in millions) Actual (in millions) Surplus or Leakage (in millions) Surplus or Leakage as % of Potential Trade Area Population Gain or Loss , $734.5 $771.9 $ % +10, , $749.5 $868.5 $ % +31, , $813.7 $ $ % -8, , $850.1 $874.8 $ % +5, , $912.8 $920.4 $ % +1, , $974.4 $ $ % -3, , $1,131.5 $1, $ % -17, , NA NA NA NA NA , $1,132.6 $1,143.4 $ % +1, , NA NA NA NA NA , $1,245.8 $1, $ % , NA NA NA NA NA , NA NA NA NA NA , $1,514.2 $1,726.2 $ % +27, , $1,550.7 $1,846.5 $ % +37, , $1,594.2 $1,916.0 $ % +39, , $1,606.1 $1,995.4 $ % +47,516 Page 28

45 Income, 2004 Total Personal Income is derived from the Bureau of Economic Analysis data. Median household income and income distribution data are obtained from the 2004 Census estimates. Median household income represents the midpoint of income for all households in the town. The index of income measures the county s per capita income relative to the state. For example, an index number of 110 indicates the county s per capita income is 10 percent above the state average (which was $36,162 in 2004). Income Distribution by Household, 2000 Demographic Characteristics Total Personal Income ($000) Median Household Income Index of Income St. Louis County Aitkin County Carlton County Itasca County Koochiching County Lake County $6,067,421 $381,346 $863,470 $1,129,174 $413,292 $341,951 $41,233 $33,632 $43,837 $39,823 $39,606 $45, State $184,571,393 $51, Less than $20,000 $20,000 to $39,999 $40,000 to $59,999 $60,000 and over St. Louis County 26.8% 27.5% Aitkin County 30.3% 31.6% Carlton County 23.7% 26.3% Itasca County 25.7% 29.0% Koochiching County 28.5% 26.9% Lake County 22.1% 27.4% 20.8% 20.2% 22.0% 21.8% 20.9% 24.2% 24.9% 17.8% 28.1% 23.5% 23.6% 26.3% Relative to the state, St. Louis County has more low-income households (earning less than $20,000 annually) and fewer higher-income households (earning more than $60,000 annually). State 17.6% 24.2% 21.3% 36.8% Population In 2000, St. Louis County had 82,720 households and an average of 2.42 persons per household. There were 1.9 million households statewide with an average of 2.59 persons per household. Compared to the state, St. Louis County had a lower proportion of young people (under 18) and a higher proportion of older people (age 65 +). Age Distribution of Population, 2000 St. Louis County State Age 65+ Age % % Total 200,528 4,919,479 Under 18 44, ,286, Age , ,143, Age , ,188, Age , , Age , , Age Age Under Percent St. Louis County State Page 29

46 State of Minnesota Per Capita Taxable Retail & Threshold Levels for Selected Goods and Services 2006 Threshold level refers to the number of people per business, which can be used as a general guide for determining the "critical mass" necessary to support a business. These are broad averages for the state as a whole and do not reflect differences in income, tourism, agglomeration, establishment, etc. Further, the business counts are based on the number of sales tax returns filed and are converted to "full time equivalents." Multiplying people per business by sales per capita yields average sales per firm. In addition to state averages, averages for the non-metropolitan regions were calculated by excluding the seven county Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan region. Business Activity / Store Type People Per Business Per Capita State Non-Metro State Non-Metro Virginia RETAIL TRADE 441 Vehicles, Parts 1,692 1,336 $ $ $ Furniture Stores 1,928 2,233 $ $ $ Electronics 2,419 3,243 $ $ $ Building Materials 1,943 1,514 $1, $ $ Food and Beverage Stores 1,343 1,197 $ $ $ Health, Personal Stores 3,728 4,226 $99.93 $50.99 $ Gasoline Stations 2,326 1,797 $ $ $ Clothing & Accessory Stores 1,322 1,757 $ $ $ Leisure Goods 1,122 1,105 $ $ $ General Merchandise 4,295 3,514 $1, $1, $3, Miscellaneous Merchandise $ $ $ Non-store Retail 976 1,110 $ $76.19 $ Retail Total $5, $4, $9, INFORMATION 511 Publishing Industry 10,112 38,712 $26.09 $ Movie & Recording Industry 15,197 70,593 $18.84 $ Broadcasting 33,122 80,005 $ $ Telecommunications 6,100 11,010 $ $ Internet Service 6,022 34,785 $66.87 $ Other Information Services 2,775 3,941 $ $58.05 FINANCE AND INSURANCE NA 522 Credit Intermediation 5,767 8,001 $51.15 $ Securities, Commodities 26, ,195 $2.18 $ Insurance Carriers 8,375 24,744 $2.33 $ Funds, Trusts 135,976 NA $6.21 NA REAL ESTATE AND RENTAL AND LEASING 531 Real Estate 2,817 5,543 $26.71 $ Rental, Leasing Services 2,428 3,609 $ $ Lessors Nonfinancial Assets 397,469 NA $1.40 NA PROFESSIONAL, SCIENTIFIC, AND TECHNICAL SERVICES 541 Prof, Scientific, Technical Services $ $ Mgmt Of Companies 22, ,439 $15.77 $0.83 ADMINISTRATIVE & SUPPORT; WASTE MGMT & REMEDIATION SVCS 561 Admin, Support Services $14.64 $ Waste Mgmt, Remediation 15,899 21,820 $10.51 $0.33 EDUCATIONAL SVCS; HEALTH & SOCIAL ASSISTANCE 611 Educational Services 5,310 6,957 $14.64 $ Health -Ambulatory Care 1,584 1,956 $10.51 $ Health -Hospitals 38, ,008 $13.18 $ Health -Nursing,Home Care 13,562 15,001 $1.53 $ Health -Social Assistance 14,041 28,237 $2.59 $2.25 ARTS, ENTERTAINMENT & RECREATION 711 Performing Art, Spectator Sports 5,377 11,321 $46.21 $ Museums, Historical Sites 36, ,293 $3.38 $ Amusement, Gambling, Recr 2,369 1,982 $ $ ACCOMODATION & FOOD SERVICES 721 Accomodation 2,094 1,192 $ $ $ Food Services, Drinking Places $1, $ $1, OTHER SERVICES 811 Repair, Maintenance $ $ Personal, Laundry Service $ $48.94 TOTAL RETAIL AND SERVICES $9, $6, Page 30

47 Compare the Community to the Region Virginia and St. Louis County On other pages of this report we compared communities using a combination of retail sectors and service sectors. The information on this page only includes businesses in Retail Trade and does not include service sectors. The retail trade sectors include the following: building materials, motor vehicles & parts, apparel, food stores, electronics, convenience stores, leisure goods, health stores, furniture, general merchandise, non-store retail, and miscellaneous stores. Retail per capita Retail Per Capita Region 1 $2,613 St. Louis Region County2 $4,193 $4,958 Region 3 Virginia $4,464 Region 4 $4,555 Region 5 $4,963 Region State 6E $4,202 $5,148 Region 6W $2,265 Region 7E $3,031 Region 11 7W $5,407 $4,750 Region 108 $4,176 $3,078 Region 9 $3,763 Region 9 $3,763 Region 10 $4,176 Region 811 $3,078 $5,407 $9,366 Region 7W State $4,750 $5,148 Region 7E $3,031 Virginia $9,366 Region St. Louis 6W County $2,265 $4,958 Region 6E Region 5 Region 4 Region 3 Region 2 $4,202 $4,963 $4,555 $4,464 $4,193 Region 1 $2,613 $1,000 $3,000 $5,000 $7,000 $9,000 $11,000 Page 31