The [Future] New Economy

Transcription

1 The [Future] New Economy Michael Hanson, President & CEO Massachusetts Share Insurance Corporation Saturday, January 20, :30 am 10:00 am Learning Objectives 1. Identify trends impacting credit unions in Assist in determining how the trends will impact your credit union.

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3 The [FUTURE] New Economy Mike Hanson, President & CEO, MSIC Copyright 2018 MSIC. All Rights Reserved. 30 Rowes Wharf, Suite 520, Boston, MA

4 The Problem with Economists: You Can t Live With Em; You Can t Live Without Em.

5 We need to look forward We deal with Consumers today, in today s economy. Where is our economy likely to go? What future conditions do we need to plan for?

6 The Competitive Nature of the Global Economy. Not a zero sum game but close. Relative Rankings Matter a lot.

7 10 YEARS OUT: A little perspective: 10 Years Ago there were no smart phones on the planet. Today?

8 A little more perspective: The Federal Budget: $3.688 T Federal Debt: $18.69 T US GDP: $17.8 T Budget is 20.7% of GDP Debt is 105% of GDP

9 BUT DOES THAT TELL THE WHOLE STORY? Value of US Housing Stock: $28.4 T Value of US Natural Resources: $45 T Value of US Pension Investments: $ T Value of the US Stock Market: $22.5 T (2014)

10 Value of US Bank and Credit Union Assets: $15 T Value of Cash in Circulation (Money Supply): $12.89 T YOU GET THE IDEA (I could keep going)

11 Finally, FREE Your Mind: The Remote Control Close your EYES and repeat after me. Think Critically U.S. Productivity is down. Now Let s Get to work.

12 The Future Economy will depend on 9 Key Areas: 1. ENERGY 2. POVERTY 3. INFRASTRUCTURE 4. EDUCATION 5. RULE OF LAW 6. STABILITY 7. TECHNOLOGY 8. CAPITAL 9. DISRUPTION

13 ENERGY Which Country Has the top amount of Fossil Fuels by percent of world total? Which Country has the largest amount of natural resources? Number 2?

14 ENERGY Fracking Technology has catapulted the US to a top producer of oil and natural gas. We may be a net exporter of fuels in the next 2 decades (or sooner)

15 ENERGY The US has an abundant source of cheap energy without having to ship it from elsewhere. Don t forget Canada! (and Mexico)

16 POVERTY Which of the global economic players have the lowest level of societal poverty? IS the US on the right list? Living on $3 per day.

17 INFRASTRUCTURE US Roads and Bridges need repair In India, Russia, Brazil, China, Africa Roads and Bridges need building

18 EDUCATION US is not at the top in public spending on education as a percentage of GDP. But in raw dollars? Add in Private Funding.

19 EDUCATION Top Colleges and Universities in the World. We are educating the next Global Elite MIT Founding businesses.

20 RULE OF LAW Name one country that has a more defined system that has more consensus than the West. Most Friendly to business formation and operation US.

21 STABILITY Political Spectrum Imbedded Code of Conduct

22 TECHNOLOGY What is India s top technology objective?

23 TECHNOLOGY

24 TECHNOLOGY What is the US s top technology objective?

25 TECHNOLOGY - Robotics

26 TECHNOLOGY - Manufacturing

27 TECHNOLOGY - Manufacturing

28 TECHNOLOGY - Manufacturing

29 TECHNOLOGY - Manufacturing Where would you locate your firm? Conclusion High End Manufacturing will continue to grow in the US. All Manufacturing will come roaring back.

30 TECHNOLOGY Health Kendall Square, Cambridge Genome Foundations Biomedical Research Educational Collaborative Billions in Construction

31 CAPITAL Capital Formation Excess Reserves Money to Lend Wealth without compare

32 DISRUPTION Part One Deep Creativity EMERSON: The Scholar in Action UBER Immigration Elon Musk Why Here?

33 DISRUPTION Part Two What does the disruption economy mean for Credit Unions? First What do we mean by DISRUPTION?

34 DISRUPTION We have a foundation for disruptive change: A generation of Tech Savvy Consumers A severe anger/lack of confidence for institutions that used to deliver stability

35 DISRUPTION We sit at the intersection of 3 distinct disruptive trends

36 DISRUPTION 1. The emergence of asset-light business models (Fintech, Uber, Facebook)

37 DISRUPTION 2. The shift to (and consumer acceptance of) the sharing economy. (AirBNB)

38 DISRUPTION 3. Consumers (especially young consumers) are increasingly happy to pay for access to things without owning them outright. (Future car ownership, Driver-less cars)

39 DISRUPTION The times are a change - in! Bob Dylan Nobel Laureate (really?) All Business Models will change drastically. A Hard Rain is Gonna Fall

40 DISRUPTION Good news: Young consumer values remarkably reflect traditional values. Altruistic Value driven (both kinds of value) Care about broader societal goals

41 DISRUPTION Bank Transfer Day Credit Union Values. Go get em

42 The Difficulty of Predicting the Future Danger Abounds Political Instability War But if trouble comes, where would you like to be? All signs point to a massive and long term US revival I believe it is well underway already. Never, ever, bet against the USA. So, what is our biggest challenge?

43 Politics does a great disservice to this nation.

44 Political discourse is holding us back. The only thing we have to Fear... is Fear itself. -- FDR

45 Comments & Questions? THANK YOU

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47 *MSIC 6 Issues For the Next Decade (or is it 6 Crises?) Volunteer Leadership Institute 2018 Maui, Hawall January 20, 2018 Copyright 2018, MSIC. All Rights Reserved.

48 *MSIC *Today we will consider: *State of the Movement *6 Issues for the next Decade *What to Do About Them *Advice for your next Strategy Session

49 *MSIC * *The State of the Movement

50 *MSIC * Lending Up, Shares Up, Earnings Up, Membership Up, Capital Up!

51 * *MSIC

52 *MSIC * *Caution: The overall averages don t tell the whole story!

53 *MSIC *The job of the CEO is to look around the corner. *So, What is likely ahead for our movement?

54 *MSIC *6 Crises: The Decade Ahead *(And what to do about them)

55 *MSIC *Consumer Preferences *Systemic Risk *Student Debt *National Debt *Bank Robberies *Trust

56 *MSIC *Consumer Preferences *Systemic Risk *Student Debt *National Debt *Bank Robberies *Trust

57 *What to Do? *MSIC

58 *MSIC *(Consumer Preferences) *Follow Changing Preferences *Restructure the Branch *Deliver in the Digital World

59 *MSIC *(Systemic Risk, Student Debt National Debt) *Realize the Good Times will not last forever *Conservative Balance Sheet and Income Statement Strategies *Capital & Earnings

60 *(Special Case for Student Debt) *MSIC *Help new younger members with creative ways to relieve them of their debt burden *Employees & Members *A way to attract a new generation to the credit union movement

61 *MSIC *(Bank Robberies) *Cyber-Security *World Class *24/7 *Top Priority Management & Board

62 *MSIC *(Trust) *Are we Bankers? *We Run Membership Organizations *Deliver Value

63 *How do we do it? *MSIC

64 *MSIC *How? *Change the MOVEMENT! *Back to First Principles

65 *MSIC *Why do Credit Unions Exist? *Members, Members, Members

66 *MSIC *3 Steps are Necessary Now: *Collaboration *New Member Acquisition *Creating Shared Value

67 *MSIC *Collaboration *Everybody talks a good game about collaboration but few know how to do it! *Even harder than it appears.

68 *Scale, Size, Impact & Synergy *MSIC

69 *MSIC *New Member Acquisition *One member at a time *Digital Frontier

70 *MSIC *Creating Shared Value *For your Members & For your Credit Union

71 *Michael Porter Interview *MSIC

72 *MSIC *CSV - Creating Shared Value is very different from: *CSR Corporate Social Responsibility *And is not just for *NGO Non-Governmental Organizations

73 *MSIC *The current manner of addressing societal problems is limited by Government funds, or the amount of money that can be raised by Charities & NGOs. *Even concepts like Fair Trade is just a form of reallocation of capital you pay more (a fair price) for the same goods (e.g., coffee) *That is good but extremely limited as compared to the scale of societal problems (world poverty)

74 *MSIC *CSV - is a new way of solving problems using the power of the business system. *Solving problems while making money *Infinitely Scalable is not limited by traditional limitations of governmental budgets or reallocation of funds. *It is what credit unions have been doing for 100 years!

75 *MSIC *CSV How do we significantly improve the financial health of our members? *How do we help them achieve their opportunities? *By providing profitable financial services that meet their specific needs.

76 *MSIC *A Call to Action! *Time is of the Essence

77 *MSIC

78 *MSIC

79 *MSIC *Your Strategy should be focused on how to advance these key items.

80 *At your Strategy Sessions Ask: *MSIC *1. What should be the first 3 operational objectives for our Credit Union to advance these goals? *Collaboration, New Member Acquisition, Creating Shared Value

81 *At your Strategy Sessions Ask: *MSIC *2. How should we execute on those objectives?

82 *MSIC *Now, Where do we go from here?

83 *MSIC *Questions & Comments? *Thank You!

84 Please Use the Link Below to Access the Evaluation Form for This Session