Using market intelligence for lobster price negotiations. a discussion

Transcription

1 Using market intelligence for lobster price negotiations a discussion John Sackton Seafood.com Halifax Oct 15, 2007

2 Problem Statement: The consumer market sets the price for lobsters, yet harvesters who sell lobsters have little access to end user market information

3 nequal access to market knowledge makes harvesters uspicious that they are not getting the full value for their lobsters. Common concerns Buyers hiding extent of market demand Buyers collude on prices, agree in advance on what they will pay Little understanding of why prices go up or down, except basic supply and demand

4 Harvester Solution: maximize the number of bidders for lobster Tuna buyers at Tsukiji fish market

5 But lobsters are landed in small volumes in remote locations Lobster co-op Jonesport, Maine

6 Harvester have developed other practices to ensure they get full value for their lobsters Buyers take all grades and sizes of lobsters offereddespite the wide disparity in value of different sizes, grades Buyers match prices in other ports; other offers Small differences in prices among buyers can lead harvesters to switch who they sell to esult: Highly competitive market for purchases at dock

7 But have harvesters really maximized value? B A Illustration of a phase change

8 There is a well known scientific idea about stable equilibrium states. Either A or B will continue indefinitely until there is an external force that changes them. Each state is equally true. How does this apply to lobsters? A B A = current value of fishery to harvesters B = an alternative value of fishery to harvesters

9 Harvesters strong interest in maximizing competitive buying may lead to a lower overall value for the lobster fishery Landings tend to occur in short bursts at start of season, leading to glut and oversupply; Competition among buyers means that processors have little ability or incentive to invest in value added products, and in market expansion Unpredictable raw material cost hampers long term marketing Current marketing structure heavily tied to live market Price differentiation limited to hard shell/soft shell, and size- canners vs. markets

10 elative lobster product prices trending up $40.00 $35.00 $30.00 $25.00 Live $20.00 $15.00 $10.00 $5.00 $0.00 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 4 oz tails 2 lb vac pk CK dry Brazil 5 oz Aust 5-6 oz A Flat Live market has volatility, but no long term growth; overall prices have been stable in CA $ for past 6-7 years

11 To increase long term value harvesters need to find a way to support more sales of lobsters for processed and value-added products Today, most processing is done secondarily to the live market, i.e. lobsters too weak or too small for live market, so they are sold to processors

12 How can harvesters expect more money from processed lobsters when canners sell at a discount to markets Canner vs. Market Pricing CA $ Canners Markets Source: Policy and Economics Branch, DFO Moncton

13 Goals to improve value Increase the value of processed products Improve pound storage to reduce costs, minimize losses Restrict the sales flow of live lobsters to avoid gluts, making live price more stable table prices will help expand value of processed produc If successful, will lead to higher value product; greater income for harvesters

14 Industry today Industry tomorrow

15 Too much lobster is sold as a down market item To take advantage of increasing demand for high end seafood, n. american lobster has to be repositioned in the market epositioning processed products is the key to changing the perception of n. american lobster Such repositioning is difficult with current industry price formation structure, hence the A/B phase shift illustration Market intelligence and transparency is how harvesters can get paid for this higher value

16 xisting market intelligence in the lobster industry is imited to port price reporting

17 The AVC Lobster Science Center is running an innovative live inventory reporting project that has excellent potential Real time weekly inventory reports are first step towards managing oversupply

18 Experience with Market Intelligence Systems Newfoundland: In Season Crab Price Reports Alaska Crab: Preseason market reports Alaska Pollock: full report to harvesters on products sold and prices

19 Newfoundland snow crab market price reports Started in 1998 after strike delayed fishing to August previous year, resulting in lost season Mandated by provincial legislation FFAW and Processors negotiated price formula that varied based on market prices for three products: US 5-8 oz sections; Japan 4-8 oz sections, and crabmeat Goal was to start season quickly by reducing risk to harvesters and processors that a change in the market would disadvantage one side or the other

20 Successes for snow crab price reports Provided mechanism that adjusted raw material cost based on end product price and currency using provincial production reports and current sales and market information Allowed harvesters to benefit from rising product prices without continuous renegotiating Protected processors partially by lowering raw material cost in a falling market Enabled season to open on time Provided harvesters and processors with the same current sales pricing and market information, plus forecasts

21 Issues for snow crab price reports Harvesters gained advantage in falling market; Processors in rising market, due to timing delay of price changes Did not address issue of competitive price bidding among processors due to overcapacity System of bonus payments made on top of market reports has shown formula to be in need of revision. Only one revision to formula in 10 years. Formula has not adjusted as some products have become less relevant such as crabmeat, changes in Japanese specifications Buyers began to wait for the market report before making offers; market reports became issue in negotiations with Japanese buyers.

22 Successes in Alaska Crab Harvesters have retained ability to secure top prices despite a requirement they sell only to processors with matching quota Industry was able to shift to paying harvesters based on actual sales prices; not projections

23 Issues in Alaska Crab Processors lost first 5 arbitration cases; leading them to question arbitration system System is incredibly complex Current system penalizes new product development or holding product to secure market advantage Some harvesters never accepted 90/10 share split; have re-opened the issue before management council.

24 Alaska Pollock Fishery managed as giant co-op for both offshore and inshore Allows for allocation of harvests Huge gain in product value and yield based on harvest allocations Payments for both factory trawlers and shore plants during roe season based on roe recovery - a quality issue. Processors provide open books on sales and market prices for fillet, roe, and surimi sales. Bonus paid based on sales; companies generally required to match closely highest bonus.

25 Potential elements in a market intelligence system in the lobster fishery Recognition by all stakeholders that the market sets the price of lobsters Knowledge of elements that add or detract from value of lobster Timely reports on end-user product forms and prices Mechanism for adjustment of prices based on final sales

26 Factors that could be in a report that would affect prices 1. Yield for various processed products 2. Exchange rates 3. Percentage of production going to different products 4. Current market prices by product form, and possibly by area 5. Other procurement costs such as incentives, bonuses, transport costs 6. Standard processor overhead and selling costs

27 Issues in a market intelligence system What regions or ports are included? in the lobster fishery What is the impact of regions/ports not included How is data aggregated across companies Timing of reports: end of year sales data; or reports during the season or both Auditing or trust in production figures How will this impact current system of wharf buyers and various bonuses

28 A more minimalist approach: 1. Work on voluntary live inventory reporting only 2. Produce a market report by product form once or twice a year 3. Create a pilot project that would pay bonuses based on final sales value with a small group of harvesters who commit their product