PMR - Chile: Insights and Perspectives
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1 PMR - Chile: Insights and Perspectives Luis E. Gonzales C. lgonzales@hacienda.gov.cl Ministerio de Hacienda April 25, 2013
2 1 Motivation 2 Challenges for a Low carbon economy Strategy approach of a quantitative measures and design DSGE - Macroeconomic Model Integrated model Iterative DSGE - Model Structure 3 Complementary approach and following efforts 4 To do list... PMR - Chile: Insights and Perspectives:, 2/15
3 Outline 1 Motivation 2 Challenges for a Low carbon economy Strategy approach of a quantitative measures and design DSGE - Macroeconomic Model Integrated model Iterative DSGE - Model Structure 3 Complementary approach and following efforts 4 To do list... PMR - Chile: Insights and Perspectives:, 2/15
4 Emission Profile in Chile PMR - Chile: Insights and Perspectives:, 3/15
5 Economic Profile Emerging economy, GDP growth av. 5.9% last 4 years Open market oriented economy Anti cyclical Fiscal Policy Rule associated to the trend GDP 5% Inflation Targeting 3% in two years horizon. Flexible Exchange Rate Strong Institutional capabilities The main economic activity: Mining - Copper PMR - Chile: Insights and Perspectives:, 4/15
6 Outline 1 Motivation 2 Challenges for a Low carbon economy Strategy approach of a quantitative measures and design DSGE - Macroeconomic Model Integrated model Iterative DSGE - Model Structure 3 Complementary approach and following efforts 4 To do list... PMR - Chile: Insights and Perspectives:, 5/15
7 Looking for integration mechanism Is there any impact in GDP growth rates? How carbon pricing instruments would affect sectoral investment expectations? How much is the fiscal impact of carbon pricing? Is there any requirement on price stabilization? What are the net benefits of total and sectoral productivity gains? Is there some complementary options with tax instruments? How is the dynamic of the economy in the mid term? PMR - Chile: Insights and Perspectives:, 6/15
8 Currently work related to MAPS project Complementary tool for some modeling experience DSGE-Chile Constructing some iterative interaction between energy models and macro models Understanding dynamic of sectoral main drivers. Internalizing co benefits from Total Factor Productivity Looking for some exogenous random shocks in terms of trade PMR - Chile: Insights and Perspectives:, 7/15
9 Figure: Own interpretation following Medina and Soto 2006 PMR - Chile: Insights and Perspectives:, 8/15
10 PMR - Chile: Insights and Perspectives:, 9/15
11 PMR - Chile: Insights and Perspectives:, 10/15
12 Outline 1 Motivation 2 Challenges for a Low carbon economy Strategy approach of a quantitative measures and design DSGE - Macroeconomic Model Integrated model Iterative DSGE - Model Structure 3 Complementary approach and following efforts 4 To do list... PMR - Chile: Insights and Perspectives:, 11/15
13 Sectoral data and economic structure requirements MRV system implementation Industrial survey data collection Diagnostic and market structure in three main activities; Electric generation, Industries and others PMR - Chile: Insights and Perspectives:, 12/15
14 Outline 1 Motivation 2 Challenges for a Low carbon economy Strategy approach of a quantitative measures and design DSGE - Macroeconomic Model Integrated model Iterative DSGE - Model Structure 3 Complementary approach and following efforts 4 To do list... PMR - Chile: Insights and Perspectives:, 13/15
15 Sectoral Modeling complementation 1 Estimation of price elasticity of GHG emission and carbon price 2 Dynamics of investment of new technologies 3 Preliminary analysis for core elements: 1 Goals and market structure 2 Sector coverage and gases 3 Linking with international GHG markets 4 Acknowledge sectoral heterogeneity PMR - Chile: Insights and Perspectives:, 14/15
16 Thank you very much... PMR - Chile: Insights and Perspectives:, 15/15
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