Managing the Innovation Process. Methods of Trend Analysis and Opportunity Recognition

Transcription

1 Managing the Innovation Process Methods of Trend Analysis and Opportunity Recognition

2 Trend analysis How to monitor and evaluate external developments and trends? Trend Analysis Expert interviews Delphi Study Trend reports Concept Development FEI Opportunity Analysis Scenario Planning Trend Workshops Customer Innovation Workshops Idea Generation & Enrichment Coolhunting

3 Opportunity analysis How to identify business or technology gaps between current situation and envisioned future? Trend Analysis Sales Analysis Technology Forecasting & Road Mapping Outcome-Driven Innovation Concept Development FEI Opportunity Analysis Competitor Intelligence Disciplined bootlegging Netnography Idea Generation & Enrichment Gut feeling

4 Market Pull versus Technology Push What are the underlying assumptions and the drivers of innovation? Technology Push Basic Science Design & Engineering Manufacturing Marketing Sales Market Pull Market Need Development Manufacturing Sales

5 Sources Baker, J. P. (2000). The incubator and the medical discovery of the premature infant. Journal of Perinatology, 20(5), pp Cooper, R. G. (2008). The Stage-Gate Idea-to-Launch Process. Journal of Product Innovation Management, 25(3), pp Crawford, C. M., & Di Benedetto, C. A. (2011). New products management. McGraw-Hill Education. Johnson, M. W. (2010). Seizing the white space: business model innovation for growth and renewal. Harvard Business Press. Magrath, A. J. (1998). Envisioning Greenfield Markets. Across the Board, 35, pp Wheelwright, S. C., & Clark, K. B. (1992). Revolutionizing product development: quantum leaps in speed, efficiency, and quality. Simon and Schuster. Further readings: Koen (2012); Koen & Stevens (2012); Koen et al. (2002).

6 Managing the Innovation Process Trend Analysis and Opportunity Recognition

7 Managing the Innovation Process The Big Picture Source: Lercher 2016, 2017

8 Trend Analysis & Opportunity Recognition in The Big Picture Source: Lercher 2016, 2017

9 Opportunity recognition and trend analysis How does a firm know that it has to start a new product development process? Activities that Feed Strategic Planning for New Products Ongoing marketing planning Special opportunity analysis Ongoing corporate planning Opportunity: A business or technology gap (that a company or individual realizes) between the current situation and an envisioned future in order to capture competitive advantage, respond to a threat, or solve a problem.

10 Opportunity Identification: Greenfield Markets What are means to develop a firm into greenfield markets? Find another location or venue Leverage your firm s strengths in a new activity Move into a new to you industry Identify a fastgrowing need, and adapt your products to that need Currently, Business Model Innovation or Blue Ocean Strategy are means to develop a firm into greenfield markets.

11 Opportunity Identification: Different Degrees of Change & Uncertainty Nature of the Opportunity Poor fit w/ current organization (Disruptive) Process Innovation (Poor Dogs) White Space (Business Model / Radical / Disruptive Innovation) Good fit w/ current organization Core Business Adjacency Existing customers served in traditional ways New customers or existing customers served in fundamentally different ways Based on M.W. Johnson: Seizing the white space, 2010 Nature of the Customer

12 Opportunity recognition and trend analysis How does a firm know that it has to start a new product development process? Activities that Feed Strategic Planning for New Products Sources of Opportunities An external mandate Ongoing marketing planning Ongoing corporate planning A new resource An internal mandate Special opportunity analysis An underutilized resource Opportunity recognition Reaction on an identified trend

13 Opportunity recognition and trend analysis How does a firm know that it has to start a new product development process? Activities that Feed Strategic Planning for New Products Sources of Opportunities An external mandate Ongoing marketing planning Ongoing corporate planning A new resource An internal mandate Special opportunity analysis An underutilized resource Opportunity recognition Reaction on an identified trend

14 Opportunity recognition and trend analysis How does a firm know that it has to start a new product development process? VISION: Desired future Sources of Opportunities MISSION: a means to approach the vision TRENDS: Foreseeable developments, extrapolated from present situation; expert knowledge; broadly applicable A new resource An external mandate An internal mandate FORECASTS / PROGNOSIS: Quantifies time and degree of use of trends SCENARIOS: Comprehensive summary of multiple trends and their mutual interaction, allows for the emergence of several possible futures An underutilized resource Opportunity recognition Reaction on an identified trend