MILK AT RETAIL PERFORMANCE, CASE MANAGEMENT & CHALLENGES

Transcription

1 MILK AT RETAIL PERFORMANCE, CASE MANAGEMENT & CHALLENGES DOUG ADAMS, President Prime Consulting Group Milk Symposium at University of Minnesota July 20, Dundee Rd #255, Northbrook, IL Dundee Road, #255, Northbrook, IL

2 Objective & Agenda OBJECTIVE Milk at Retail: Performance, Management & Challenges AGENDA Introduction Overview of Where Milk Is Sold Review Dairy Case Dynamics Performance Study Observations and Challenges 2

3 MAKING A MEASURABLE DIFFERENCE Build Capabilities Optimize Marketplace Results Measure Performance Outcomes Clients Include CPG COMPANIES ASSOCIATIONS CHECK-OFF PROGRAMS RETAILERS SERVICE PROVIDERS KEEPING VISION, STRATEGY & EXECUTION ALIGNED 3

4 Select Clients & References 4

5 Select Clients & References 5

6 Category Management/Development & Related Experience Practitioner, Consultant and Information Provider for 30+ Years Co-author of Industry Best Practices Category Management Process Category Management in DSD Environment 1996 New Item Introductions Hands-on practical experience with numerous: CPG manufacturers Grocery, mass, conv. and drug channel retailers Information and technology providers Adapted and applied process (partial or whole), in: Consumer Packaged Goods for Frito-Lay, Sara Lee, Hostess Brands and numerous other companies and Associations Consumer electronics and appliances for Best Buy Appliances for Maytag Automotive for Quaker State Motor Oil and Aftermarket retailers Foodservice and Schools for MilkPEP and School Nutrition Association Energy for Propane Education & Research Council 6

7 Examples of Industry Deliverables Developing Industry Processes & Changing Relationships Making In-Store Advertising a Measured Medium POPAI Scan Based Trading & Pay-on-Scan Grocery Manufacturers of America (GMA) & Automotive Aftermarket Industry Association (AAIA) Industry Studies/ Reports Building Customer Satisfaction & Sales Nat l. Assoc. of Chain Drug Stores (NACDS) and American Greetings Research Council Variety or Duplication Food Marketing Institute Solving Out-of-Stocks Nat l. Assoc. of Convenience Stores (NACS) and Convenience Store News 7

8 Select Dairy Industry Clients 8

9 Dairy Industry Experience Continuous engagements over the past 18 years by many of the milk industry s key associations and check-off marketing programs. Projects have included: Dairy Case Dynamics performance analysis developed compelling category story. Individual projects have led to sizeable space gains and assortment resets. Topline Sales reporting and analysis of market trends using multiple data sources. Quarterly Business Trends presentation for the Board. All Channel Tracking: Innovative collection and analysis of confidential sales records from majority of industry competitors to provide complete picture of sales across all channels. Published since 2008, with over 30 Processors participating. Large scale tests in Grocery, Convenience, Foodservice and Schools. Economic and ROI analysis, including retail performance Opportunity identification and market sizing Strategic, in-market and executional experience with: Industry promotion and check-off programs. Leading processors, manufacturers and retailers. School foodservice operations. Trade associations and advocacy groups. Packaging and ingredient suppliers. 9

10 Objective & Agenda OBJECTIVE Milk at Retail: Performance, Management & Challenges AGENDA Introduction Overview of Where Milk Is Sold Review Dairy Case Dynamics Performance Study Observations and Challenges 11

11 Recap of Milk Sales by Channel 2015 FULL YEAR 5,779 MM Gallons* -76 MM Gal. or -1.4% vs MM Gal. or -6.2% vs FOODSERVICE 15.1% 2014 vs pts +1.3 pts +1.6% +3.2% SCHOOLS** 7.6% 2014 vs pts NC NC -6.5% TOTAL FOOD, MASS & DRUG 57.9% OTHER RETAIL 18.2% 2014 vs pts +0.9 pts NC -1.2% Change in: 2014 vs 2012 Share of Milk -0.2 pts -1.5 pts Gal. vs. YA -1.5% -8.4% * USDA AMS converted to gallons by Prime ** Includes Preschools, Daycare & Head Start programs *** In prior years, yogurt drinks were Class 1. These products were reclassified by USDA. SHRINK & EXCLUDED PRODUCTS/GEO*** 1.2% -0.7 pts vs 12 14

12 Milk Sales by Channel for ,779 MM Gallons* Share & Share Change vs FOODSERVICE 15.1% Ltd Service 5.5%, +0.6 Full Service 1.8%, +0.1 Non-Restaurant 7.8%, +0.6 Traditional Grocery 40.7%, -1.5 TOTAL FOOD, MASS & DRUG 57.9% SCHOOLS** 7.6% NC Club 5.5%, +0.6 OTHER RETAIL 18.2% Convenience 5.8%, -0.8 Note: Individual segments may not add to total or tie to prior page due to rounding. Drug 1.9%, -0.2 Mass (incl WMT) 15.3%, +0.2 * USDA AMS converted to gallons ** Includes Preschools, Daycare & Head Start programs *** In prior years, yogurt drinks were Class 1. These products were reclassified by USDA. SHRINK & EXCLUDED PRODUCTS/GEO*** 1.2% -0.7 pts vs 12 Small Grocery & Dollar 5.4%, +1.2 Military 0.6%, -0.2 Other Gov t/comm 0.6%, +0.1 Nat l Foods 0.3%, NC 15

13 A Different Look at Milk Benefit Driven has Been the Source of Growth Milk Category (5 Yr. CAGR %) Benefit Driven $16 Billion Organic Brands $1.6B +8% Premium * $64M +10% Plant Bev $1.6B +13% Lactose F/R $0.7B +5.6% Other Value-Added/HE $164M +5% Pure, Clean, Simple Traditional Branded Milk $5.8B -1.3% Amplified, Enhanced, Supplemented Traditional Private Label Milk $7.6B -1.3% Price Driven * Premium represents a list of brands sold in glass bottles or high end plastic. Source: IRI MULO+C 2015 Dollar Sales and % Change vs

14 Value-Added (VA) Has Replaced ~80% of Non-VA Dollar Sales Decline Since 2010 VA has grown $697 MM since 2010, while 11% 89% $16,076 1,759 14,317 DOLLARS (MM) Traditional VA -1.3% +6.9% CAGR 15,192 15,192 PRICE/GALLON +2.4% +2.7% $15,889 2,456 13, %/yr 15% 85% Non-VA has lost $884 MM. Value Added Milk now makes up 15% of dollars sales and 8% of gallon volume. Since 2010, category volume at retail has declined -3.1%/yr. (-656 MM gallons), while dollar sales have only declined -0.2%/yr. Pricing changes have been larger for VA than Traditional milk products. GALLONS (MM) Price per Gallon 5% 95% 4, , Traditional VA -3.6% +4.1% 3,820 3,820 3, , %/yr 8% 92% $7.58 $7.58 $7.18 $7.33 $3.72 $3.75 $3.82 $3.34 VA $7.79 $4.10 Non VA $8.20 $8.25 $3.76 $ Q1 Source: IRI MULO+C 2015 Dollar Sales and % Change vs Value Added includes Organic, Lactose F/R, Health Enhanced and Premium Brands. 17

15 Milk 5 Year Sales Trends (Tracked Channels) Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) % TOTAL MILK ($15.9 B) TRADITIONAL ($13.4 B) VALUE ADDED ($2.59 B) Gal $/Gal $ Gal. declined -3.1% /yr. while pricing ($/Gal) rose +2.9% for Dollar sales change of -0.2%/yr. Gal $/Gal $ Gal. declined -3.6% /yr. while pricing ($/Gal) rose +2.4% for Dollar sales change of -1.3%/yr Gal $/Gal $ Gal. declined +4.1% /yr. while pricing ($/Gal) rose +2.4% for Dollar sales change of +6.9%/yr. Value Added segments have positive volume trends as well as positive pricing. Premium Brands ($64 M) Health Enhanced ($52 M) Organic ($1.6 B) Lactose F/R ($0.7 B M) Gal $/Gal $ Gal $/Gal $ Gal $/Gal $ Gal $/Gal $ Primarily in Glass Bottles (Non-Organic & Full Lactose) Source: IRI MULO+C 18

16 Channel Growth Dynamics: Outlets & Gallons per Outlet Fewer Outlets BUT Growing Volume per Outlet 5 Yr. CAGR Growth on Both Fronts Outlets & Volume/ Outlet 10% % Change in Gallons per Outlet 8% 5% 3% 0% -3% -5% -8% Full Svc Rest Full Svc. Rest. have fewer outlets, while retail adds. Retail store milk averages have declined. Natural Foods Ltd Svc Rest ALL CHANNELS Military Hospitals Small Grocery Colleges/ Univ Corrections Healthcare B&I Grocery Drug Club Travel & Leisure Non-Rest Convenience Mass Vending/ OCS/ MM Dollar Strongest growth on both fronts occurred in Dollar Stores -10% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Losing on Both Fronts Outlets & Volume/ Outlet % Change in Outlets Growing Outlets BUT Declining Volume/Outlet 19

17 Total Milk Volume Change by Type Virtually the entire decline in milk volume over the past three years came from Reduced Fat Conventional White Milk sold through retail outlets tracked by IRI. Whole Conventional White Milk and Organic have each grown MM gallons during the past three years. 6, Conv White Whole Retail * +8.1 Food- Service & Other Retail Organic Retail * Food- Service & Other Retail Conv 2%/ 1% & FF Retail * Food- Service & Other Retail -0.6 Conv Flavored +8.2 Retail * -1.8 Food- Service & Other Retail -7.0 Schools Buttermilk -1.5 Retail * +5.9 Food- Service & Other Retail Misc./ Other ** 5, * Retail includes IRI tracked in Food, Drug Mass, Military and some Club and Dollar chains. ** Misc./Other relates to an undescribed category of products in USDA reporting

18 Milk Shifts to Higher Fat Levels Fat Free milk volume is now half what is was in 2010 (-10.3% per year). Whole milk has grown for last 3 years as science/pr has turned positive toward dairy fat. Fat Free 1% 2% 4, Total Traditional White Milk in Gallons* (MM) Total U.S. MULO+C 4,018 3, , ,550 3,460 3, ,668 1,626 1,584 1,541 1,480 1,377 1,318 CAGR Fat Free -10.6% 1% -3.3% 2% -3.8% Whole +0.2% TOTAL -3.5% Whole 1,163 1,129 1,094 1,079 1,082 1,125 1, * Traditional white milk excludes organic white Source: IRI MULO+C (Multi-Outlet and Convenience Stores) 21

19 White & Flavored Milk by Channel: 2015 Sales mix is significantly different for white and flavored milk. Close to half of flavored milk is sold in schools. Conventional & Organic Milk Share by Channel Group White/Unflavored Change vs Flavored TOTAL FOOD, MASS & DRUG 61.8% -0.8 pts 5,231.4 MM Gallons FOODSERVICE 14.7% +0.3 pts OTHER RETAIL 19.0% +0.9 pts SHRINK/OTHER 1.0% -0.8 pts SCHOOLS* 3.5% +0.4 pts FOODSERVICE 14.8% +3.9 pts SCHOOLS 47.5% TOTAL FOOD, MASS & DRUG 23.7% +2.1 pts -5.9 pts MM Gallons OTHER RETAIL 12.6% +0.3 pts SHRINK/OTHER 1.4% -0.4 pts * Includes K-12 schools and Preschool/Daycare. 22

20 Flavored Milk Development by Channel Flavored share of milk within channel, ranges from under 2% in Natural Foods and Drug stores to over 60% in Schools Conventional Flavored Milk as a % of Total Milk 61% 33% 40% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4% 3% 4% 10% 10% 11% 15% * * 61% includes K-12 (66%) and Preschool/Daycare (~0%). 23

21 Flavored Milk Volume Change Flavored milk volume declined 3.4 MM gallons over three years, driven by offsetting growth in Conventional Whole in Retail (+7.7 MM) and decline in Schools (-7.0 MM) Conv Whole +7.7 Retail * -1.1 Food- Service & Other Retail Organic +0.1 Retail * -2.9 Food- Service & Other Retail -0.2 Conv 2%/ 1% & FF +0.5 Retail * -0.7 Food- Service & Other Retail -7.0 Schools * Retail includes IRI tracked Food, Drug Mass, Military and some Club and Dollar chains

22 Objective & Agenda OBJECTIVE Milk at Retail: Performance, Management & Challenges AGENDA Introduction Overview of Where Milk Is Sold Review Dairy Case Dynamics Performance Study Observations and Challenges 25

23 Dairy & Milk Performance SALES EXCEED 11% OF THE STORE ($60 B/Year) DAIRY AISLE One of the Largest & Most Productive Parts of the Store MILK & CHEESE Key Anchor Categories, Each Over 27% of Sales Milk 27.7 Mix of Sales in $ s Cheese 27.2 YOGURT Roughly 13% of Sales EGGS & OTHER DAIRY PRODUCTS Represent About 1/3 rd of Sales Source: IRI Multi-Outlet Service 3.2 All Other 2.7 Alt Bevs 3.9 Cultured Butter Cream/ Creamers Eggs 12.2 Yogurt

24 Dairy Delivers 20% of Store Profit from Only 3% of Store Space Note: Pharmacy not included. Share of Sales Space & Profit Linear Feet Sales Adjusted Gross Profit* True Profit** Grocery 32% 27% 23% 23% Produce 4% 12% 16% 20% DAIRY 3% 10% 11% 20% Frozen 7% 7% 7% 10% Meat 2% 8% 6% 8% Liquor 3% 7% 4% 7% GM 19% 10% 10% 6% Deli & Foodservice 2% 6% 9% 4% Packaged Deli 1% 2% 2% 4% HBC 8% 5% 5% 3% Seafood 0% 1% 1% -1% Floral 17% 1% 1% -2% Bakery 2% 2% 4% -3% *Adjusted Gross Profit is defined as: (Sales less Cost of Goods) + Trade and Terms **True Profit = gross profit plus trade spending, less Activity Based Costs such as stocking, space, transportation. Source: Willard Bishop 2015 Grocery SuperStudy TM 27

25 Dairy is Super Efficient & Delivers One of the Best ROI's 3 Key Leading Measures % SKUs Selling <1 Unit/Store/Week Avg Days of Supply on Shelf Gross Margin Return on Inventory Investment Produce 35% 6 $50.43 Bakery 38% 9 $29.23 Deli & Foodservice 40% 14 $27.04 DAIRY 6% 6 $25.86 Meal 39% 7 $17.52 Floral 52% 21 $17.22 Packaged Deli 4% 10 $16.54 Frozen 14% 19 $10.80 Seafood 45% 17 $9.51 Grocery 22% 18 $8.02 GM 80% 52 $5.13 Liquor 47% 21 $3.30 HBC 73% 57 $2.47 Note: Annual Gross Margin (Profit) per dollar of inventory on the shelf Source: Willard Bishop 2015 Grocery SuperStudy TM Gross Margin per $ of Inventory (GMROII) 28

26 GMROII Calculation ROII = (Margin x Turns) (1 - Margin) Example: Assume a product cost the retailer $1.00 and is retailed for $1.50: Conclusion: Margin = $ $1.00= $.50 If the product turned 52 times annually: ROII = ($.50 x 52) ( $1.00) = $26 $1 = $26 For every $1.00 of inventory, the retailer realizes $26 of profit annually. If the product turned 104 times each year GMROII = $52. 29

27 GMROII: Gross Margin Return on Inventory Investment Measure ties together key performance drivers. 30

28 Consumer Analytic Tree - Ways to Drive Volume Sales Volume Sales Milk is already bought by 95+% of HH s % of HH Buying Penetration Volume per Purchase Occasion Purchase Size Volume per Buyer Buying Rate How much does the average household buy over time? Purchase Occasion per Buyer Purchase Frequency Buy More on Existing Milk Trips More Trips with Milk 2 Ways to Grow Milk 31

29 Baskets With Milk & Dairy are Larger & More Profitable % of Baskets Containing Any Dairy Aisle Product 64% 87% They are larger and more valuable. 87% of big baskets contain a Dairy Aisle item, 46% contain milk. 23% 10 or Less Items 21+ Any Milk Item 10% 26% 46% Average Penny Profit per Basket With Milk $5.74 $14.60 $37.61 Without Milk Difference While smaller baskets are less likely to contain dairy aisle products, they are more valuable when they do. Small Basket: Average Size & Ring (10 Items or Less with/without Dairy) % of Baskets Basket Size Basket Ring With Dairy 23% 5.1 $17.03 Without 77% 3.0 $14.65 Note: Assumes average store adjusted gross margin of 31.9% Source: 2015 Willard Bishop, LLC shopper database representing 371 stores, 20 million households, 600MM transactions, across 21 states 32

30 Milk Leads Dairy Case in Space Productivity Most category sales trail off as space grows; Milk is the exception. Sales $ Productivity Curve (Weekly Sales $) $18,000 $16,000 $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 Dairy Alt Bevs, $1,996 Margarine Or Butter, $4,911 Fluid Milk, $16,616 (from 97 Lin. Ft.) Yogurt, $11,553 Cheese, $16,757 (from 205 Lin. Ft.) $ Linear Feet Cheese Cream or Creamer Cultured Dairy Alt Bevs Eggs Fluid Milk Margarine Or Butter Yogurt Category Definitions: Fluid Milk: Buttermilk, Conventional White, Eggnog, Flavored Milk, Organic White Alterative Beverages: Almond, Soy, Rice, Coconut & A/O Refrigerated Beverages: Juice, Drinks, Tea & Iced Coffee Beverages Source: Willard Bishop 2015 Grocery SuperStudy TM 33

31 Milk & Eggs have the Lowest Days Supply & Deliver Highest ROII Space decisions and strong sales performance leads to the lowest DOS in the store. Dairy Department Days-of-Supply (Avg. DOS) Average AGMROII* Eggs 2.3 Avg AGMROII Fluid Milk Rfg Bevs Yogurt Cultured Cream/Creamer Dairy Alt Bevs Cheese Margarine/Butter Dairy Aisle Average DOS: Category Definitions: Fluid Milk: Buttermilk, Conventional White, Eggnog, Flavored Milk, Organic White Alterative Beverages: Almond, Soy, Rice, Coconut & A/O Refrigerated Beverages: Juice, Drinks, Tea & Iced Coffee Beverages Eggs $82.94 Fluid Milk $55.35 Cream/Creamer $34.38 Rfg Bevs $29.37 Cultured $28.64 Yogurt $24.86 Dairy Alt Bevs $24.25 Cheese $17.71 Margarine/Butter $16.66 AGMROII is Average Gross Margin Return on Inventory Investment Dairy Case Avg AGMROII is $25.86 Source: Willard Bishop 2015 Grocery SuperStudy TM 34

32 Key Performance Indicators Milk excels in the most important KPI s, yet Days of Supply are dangerously low requiring multiple re-stockings each weekend. Within Milk Case Other Parts of Dairy Case Milk Almond Soy Cheese Yogurt Rfg Baking Rfg Juice Linear Feet SKU s in Avg Store* Wkly Sales per Ft $171 $102 $59 $80 $64 $37 $70 Wkly Gross Profit per Ft $48 $31 $18 $24 $20 $11 $19 Days of Supply 1.5 Gal 2.3 HG GMROII $55 $30 $21 $18 $25 $11 $29 Source: IRI Panel, Bishop 2015 Grocery SuperStudy TM, Prime Consulting, *IRI Grocery 35

33 How Can We Optimize the Case Today? REMEDY OUT OF STOCKS INCREASE DAYS OF SUPPLY MAKE SPACE FOR NEW PRODUCTS 4 LEVERAGE POWERFUL MERCHANDISING OPPORTUNITIES FROM BRANDS AND INDUSTRY PROGRAMS 36

34 Milk is a Trip Driver 1 Being Out-of-Stock Hurts Shopper Satisfaction Frequency of buying milk, also telegraphs the in-stock condition of the store. Extremely low Days of Supply risks out-of-stocks every Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Mid-day restocking is required, but not always realized Leaving consumer perception of store at risk. Source: Chicago Suburb, Wednesday 5pm, January 2016 What does restocking cost and how much is lost in consumer loyalty/sales and store profitability from out-of-stocks? Source: IRI Panel, Bishop Shopper Database, Prime Consulting 37

35 Space Reduction + Out-of-Stocks: Weekly Battle Causing Lost Sales 1 Chicago Suburb, Thursday 9AM - Normal Fall Week Midwestern City Monday 4-8 pm 38

36 Retailers Lose $ When Out-of-Stock 1 Roughly half of the milk category must be restocked every Fri., Sat. and Sun. The praise of high turns easily turns into the nightmare of upset shoppers. More restocking is costly* and not the solution. Recent study by milk industry and leading consultants documented that retailers lose when under spacing milk (and over spacing other parts of Dairy). Milk loses sales faster then others gain. Retailers lose $1,800 - $3,000 per shelf (annual per store) by converting that last Milk shelf to Alternatives. Time to reset case and balance inventory/dos. * Costs $10-24/store/week Projected by Willard Bishop and Prime Consulting based on time studies, labor costs of $24.40/hr sales rates, incremental work for extra stocking and range of days involved each week. Source: FMI/GMA Study & Bishop SuperStudy values 39

37 What Makes Milk a Star? 2 Top quality products desired by consumers that sell quickly and profitably. That means inventory that turns. High inventory turns are your friend delivering more profits faster until they get too high and then they become a nightmare out-of-stocks and dissatisfied shoppers. The key is finding the sweet spot in the middle: Fast turns with good profits, while always available to shoppers. Translates to: Proper days (3-4) of supply for traditional milk (means days on weekend) 5-7 days for Value-Added due to variability of demand from week-to-week, uniqueness of items (some do not have substitutes), often limited back stock and supply chain. 40

38 Milk Outperforms Alternatives 2 The slowest selling two feet (aka Last Two Feet ) of Milk delivery 3-4X that of Almond and 6X that of Soy. Soy continues to decline, a weak performer whose space and variety needs reducing. Almond growth has slowed space performance has declined as well. Weekly Sales $ CONV WHITE MILK Adjusted Gross Profit for Last 2 Feet* $67.14 $70.70 ALMOND $20.35 $41.98 SOY $14.10 * Performance of the Last (worst) two feet (1 shelf in 1 door) Source: Willard Bishop 2015 Grocery SuperStudy TM & Prime Consulting 41

39 Innovation in Many Sections 3 In recent years, Innovation has come to many sections of the Milk case. Over the past four years: Lactose F/R has risen +42% or $239 mm in sales Health Enhanced +73% or $170 mm Single Serve Flavors +30%, $171 mm (60% longer shelf life) Organic Together, they represent nearly $500 Million in sales. 42

40 High Impact Opportunities in Market 4 Official Team USA Sponsorship Built with Chocolate Milk Nutrient Powerhouse 8 Grams of High Protein The Great American Milk Drive 43

41 Dairy Case Analysis Case Study Analysis conducted for a major Midwestern grocery chain. The goals were to: Understand performance compared to recent national study. Identify ways to improve/optimize milk case (find the sweet spot ). Optimize Space and Assortment using decision criteria set with you. Funded by 44

42 Dairy Case Analysis Case Study Analysis Results Space reallocation delivers an incremental 4-5 points in sales (conservative) across retailer stores and incremental profit of roughly $17-18,000 per store. Retailer Management Reaction Upon seeing results, management said, A new store opens in less than 6 weeks, can you put this in place in time and how about the 4 remodels coming in Q1 and Q2? New store opened with these principles in the plan-o-gram. Milk went from 8 to 11 doors (Creamers, Cultured and Cheese each declined by a door). Initial wave of remodels are on-track. 45

43 Observations & Challenges from a Local Town Store Definition of Milk? Value Added Growing Traditional PL Not Growing Unique Segment Support Space Shelf & Mind 47

44 MILK AT RETAIL PERFORMANCE, CASE MANAGEMENT & CHALLENGES THANK YOU! Milk Symposium at University of Minnesota July 20, Dundee Rd #255, Northbrook, IL Dundee Road, #255, Northbrook, IL