Inventory Projection Using the EMF. Recap of Webinar Series

Transcription

1 Inventory Projection Using the EMF Objective: After participating in the webinar and completing the tutorial, participants will be able to create future year inventories, incorporating growth and controls, using the EMF. Inventory Projection User's Guide ojection.html CoST User's Guide ost/2.5.1/cost_usersguide_ _final.pdf 1 Recap of Webinar Series Emissions Modeling Framework Manage inventories and other types of data Track edits to data with versions Maintain metadata about data files like project, description, creator, etc. QA and analysis tools custom summaries, dataset comparison, export to various formats Series Recap 2 1

2 Recap of Webinar Series Control Strategy Tool (CoST) Database of control measures (CMDB) to describe control technologies (effectiveness, cost factors) Run control strategies to look at impacts of control measures emissions reductions, cost estimates Different types of control strategies: maximum emissions reduction, least cost Create controlled, base year inventories Series Recap 3 Poll: Which feature of EMF/CoST have we NOT discussed? a) Creating county-level inventory summaries using QA steps b) Comparing emissions inventories from two different years using QA steps c) Analyze economic cost of applying control measures to an inventory using CoST d) Using EMF to track emissions modeling runs 4 2

3 Inventory Projection Estimate future year emissions based on base year emissions Need to account for controls, plant closures, growth, source replacements, etc. Use CoST as processing framework match inventory sources to factors Does not use CoST CMDB, minimal economic cost information Inventory Projection Overview 5 Inventory Projection Workflow 6 3

4 Inventory Projection Workflow Import datasets into EMF: Base year inventory Control program data (plant closures, projected growth, etc.) Create control programs in EMF Run Project Future Year Inventory (PFYI) control strategy: Inputs: base year inventories, control programs Outputs: Strategy Detailed Result dataset (same as other CoST control strategies) Inventory Projection Workflow 7 Inventory Projection Workflow Merge Strategy Detailed Result with base year inventory to create a future year inventory dataset (Optional) Export future year inventory dataset to file (Optional) Generate custom reports from the Strategy Detailed Result Inventory Projection Workflow 8 4

5 Control Programs 9 Control Programs Control Programs specify what will happen to a source in the future Will the plant close? When? Will emissions increase, decrease, or stay the same due to changes in activity? Do control measures need to be applied? How will the control measure affect the future emissions? Will an emissions cap be used? 10 5

6 Types of Control Programs 1) Plant Closure Identifies specific plants to close Level of closure varies all or just specific stacks Date of closure required 2) Projection Applies projections (growth) to sources Factors can increase or decrease future-year emissions Control Programs 11 3) Control Types of Control Programs Applies replacement or add-on control measures to sources CoST matches data to the Control Measure Database for cost estimates 4) Allowable Applies caps on emissions values or applies replacement values Control Programs 12 6

7 Control Program: Plant Closure Source characteristics Country, state, and county code (FIPS) Plant identification: facility, unit, release point, process IDs Effective date date the closure takes effect Control Programs 13 Control Program: Projection Source characteristics Country, state, and county code (FIPS) SCC, MACT, SIC, NAICS Plant identification: facility, unit, release point, process IDs (for point sources) Pollutant Projection factor can be annual or monthspecific Control Programs 14 7

8 Control Program: Control Source characteristics Country, state, and county code (FIPS) SCC, MACT, SIC, NAICS Plant identification: facility, unit, release point, process IDs (for point sources) Pollutant Replacement vs. add-on control Compliance date when control is applied Percent reduction annual or month-specific Control Programs 15 Control Program: Allowable Source characteristics Country, state, and county code (FIPS) SCC, MACT, SIC, NAICS Plant identification: facility, unit, release point, process IDs (for point sources) Pollutant Compliance date when cap or replacement applied Emissions cap or replacement value Control Programs 16 8

9 Dataset Types for Each Control Program Type Allowable: Allowable Packet* Control: Control Packet*, Control Packet Extended Plant Closure: Plant Closure Packet Projection: Projection Packet*, Projection Packet Extended * Compatible with SMOKE Extended formats support month-specific values Control Programs 17 Source Matching When matching control programs to sources, CoST uses the most specific records available Ties in specificity are broken using a defined hierarchy For example: FIPS code + MACT code is higher priority than FIPS code + SCC code Complete list is given in user s guide Control Programs 18 9

10 Poll: Which is NOT an option for matching control programs to sources? a) MACT code b) Facility ID c) Country, state, and county code d) Zip code e) SCC 19 Creating a Control Program Import data files into EMF Open the Control Program Manager From main Manage menu, select Control Programs 20 10

11 Creating a Control Program The Control Program Manager lists existing control programs Click the New button to add a new control program 21 Creating a Control Program: Summary Tab Name: unique name for control program, required Description: optional description of program Start date: required program start date End date: optional program end date Start and end date compared against target year in control strategy Creating a Control Program 22 11

12 Creating a Control Program: Summary Tab Type of Control Program: Allowable, Control, Plant Closure, or Projection Dataset Type: dataset type corresponding to control program type Dataset: click Select button to select dataset Creating a Control Program 23 Creating a Control Program: Add Dataset Shows datasets matching selected dataset type Can use Dataset name contains search field Only one dataset per control program Select dataset, click OK Creating a Control Program 24 12

13 Creating a Control Program: Summary Tab Version: Version of dataset to use Last Modified Date and Creator set automatically View Data displays Data Viewer for selected dataset View displays Dataset Properties View Creating a Control Program 25 Creating a Control Program: Measures and Technologies Tabs Only for Controltype programs Optionally used in matching program data to CMDB Discussed in user s guide Creating a Control Program 26 13

14 Control Program Manager Actions For selected control programs, can: Edit Remove (creator and admins only) Copy (uses a unique name) 27 Poll: True or false? A control program is always associated with a Plant Closure dataset. Each control program must have a unique name

15 PFYI Control Strategy 29 PFYI Control Strategy Project Future Year Inventory (PFYI) Control Strategy applies control programs to base year inventory Find control programs that apply to each source for the target year Is the plant closed? What projection factor to use? Should a control measure be added? Calculate resulting emissions Creating a PFYI Control Strategy 30 15

16 Creating a PFYI Control Strategy From the main Manage menu, select Control Strategies to open the Control Strategy Manager 31 Creating a PFYI Control Strategy Click the New button and enter a unique name for the control strategy Focus on the control strategy parameters that are different for PFYI strategies vs. other strategy types Creating a PFYI Control Strategy 32 16

17 Creating a PFYI Control Strategy: Summary Tab Type of Analysis: Project Future Year Inventory Target Year: the future year you're projecting the inventory to Used to evaluate control program start & end, plant closures, and compliance dates Creating a PFYI Control Strategy 33 Creating a PFYI Control Strategy: Summary Tab Target Pollutant: not used; all pollutants considered in strategy Once type is set, click Save; Measures tab changes to Programs Creating a PFYI Control Strategy 34 17

18 Creating a PFYI Control Strategy: Inventories Tab Select inventories to process in strategy Same as setting up other control strategies in CoST Creating a PFYI Control Strategy 35 Creating a PFYI Control Strategy: Programs Tab Creating a PFYI Control Strategy Lists control programs to include in strategy For selected programs, can: Add (next slide) Remove Edit: opens program editing windows 36 18

19 Creating a PFYI Control Strategy: Add Control Programs Creating a PFYI Control Strategy Lists name, type, and description for defined control programs Use filter and sort options to find control programs Select programs then click OK to add to control strategy 37 Creating a PFYI Control Strategy: Constraints Tab Only one constraint for PFYI strategies Minimum Percent Reduction Difference for Predicting Controls Used when matching control packet data to control measures database for estimating costs Creating a PFYI Control Strategy 38 19

20 Poll: Which of the following is true? a) The Project Future Year Inventory control strategy does not use the Target Pollutant parameter. b) The Project Future Year Inventory control strategy does not use the Target Year parameter. 39 Running the PFYI Control Strategy Click the Run button to run the control strategy Check the Status window for messages about the run Running a PFYI Control Strategy 40 20

21 Control Program Application Order Programs are applied in order 1. Plant Closure 2. Projection 3. Control 4. Allowable Adjusted source emissions carried from one step to the next Can apply multiple programs to one source Running a PFYI Control Strategy 41 Control Strategy Outputs 42 21

22 Control Strategy Outputs Click Refresh to update after strategy run Outputs tab lists datasets created by strategy Control Strategy Outputs 43 Control Strategy Outputs: Strategy Detailed Result Dataset of paired inventory sources and control programs Emissions adjustment from applying the program For control-type programs, includes predicted (matched) control measure used for cost estimate Separate Strategy Detailed Result dataset for each input inventory Control Strategy Outputs 44 22

23 Control Strategy Outputs: Strategy Detailed Result Control Strategy Outputs 45 Control Strategy Outputs: Strategy Messages Dataset with errors or warning messages from control strategy run Errors that cause the run to fail Bad format for plant closure date Duplicate control program records Control Strategy Outputs 46 23

24 Creating a Future Year Inventory 47 Creating a Future Year Inventory Merge: Strategy Detailed Result with Base year inventory If control strategy has multiple inventories, multiple Strategy Detailed Result datasets created Edit the control strategy and switch to the Outputs tab Creating a Future Year Inventory 48 24

25 Creating a Future Year Inventory Select the Strategy Detailed Result Select Controlled Inventory radio button Click Create to start process Creating a Future Year Inventory 49 Creating a Future Year Inventory Future year inventory dataset type same as base year inventory New dataset's description includes control strategy name and parameters For sources with controls applied, CoST populates inventory fields like control effectiveness, annual or monthly percent reduction, and control measures Creating a Future Year Inventory 50 25