Zenith Model Recalibration and Validation Version Paper 5 Travel Market Segmentation Model. May Public Transport Victoria

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1 Zenith Model Recalibration and Validation Version Paper 5 Travel Market Segmentation Model May 2014 Public Transport Victoria

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3 Zenith Model Recalibration and Validation Version Paper 5 Travel Market Segmentation Model Draft Report Project No. ZML-VIC-Year4 COPYRIGHT: The concepts and information contained in this document are the property of Veitch Lister Consulting Pty Ltd. Use or copying of this document in whole or in part without the written permission of Veitch Lister Consulting constitutes an infringement of copyright. LIMITATION: This report has been prepared on behalf of and for the exclusive use of Veitch Lister Consulting Pty Ltd s Client, and is subject to and issued in connection with the provisions of the agreement between Veitch Lister Consulting and its Client. Veitch Lister Consulting accepts no liability or responsibility whatsoever for or in respect of any use of or reliance upon this report by any third party. Date Revision Prepared By Checked By Approved By Description 14/03/2014 A MP JC TV Draft Report 02/05/2014 B MP JC TV Draft Report ii

4 Executive Summary The Zenith Model of Victoria is one of a family of models developed by Veitch Lister Consulting (VLC) for transport planning in Australian cities and regions. This document is one in a series of working papers that collectively describe the calibration and validation of the Zenith Model of Victoria. In particular, this document describes the Travel Market Segmentation Model. The Travel Market Segmentation Model is used to segment home based trips according to the number of cars owned by the household making each trip. For example, if a zone has an average car ownership of 1.3 vehicles per household, then the Travel Market Segmentation Model predicts that (on average): 9.6% of trips are made by households who do not own a car; 37.9% of trips are made by households who own 1 car; 38.7% of trips are made by households who own 2 cars; and The remaining 13.8% of trips are made by households who own 3+ cars. Separate Travel Market Segmentation Model relationships were estimated for the following trip purposes: Home based work (white collar) Home based work (blue collar) Home based education (primary) Home based education (secondary) Home based education (tertiary) Home based shopping Home based recreation Home based other The Travel Market Segmentation Model was estimated using data extracted from the Victorian Integrated Survey of Travel and Activity (VISTA) ( ). Repeated subsamples of 200 households were drawn from the VISTA survey, and for each sub-sample the average car ownership level was calculated, and the proportion of trips (for each trip purpose) made by 0, 1, 2, and 3+ car households was calculated. Using this data, a series of mathematical relationships (of Logit form) were estimated. For example, in the case of home based work (white collar workers), the following curves were fit to the data. iii

5 Figure Segmentation of Home Based Work (White Collar) Trips Similar relationships were found for the other variables and the relationships documented in this paper have been implemented into the Zenith Model of Victoria. iv

6 Contents Executive Summary... iii Contents... v List of Figures... vi List of Tables... vii 1 Introduction Data Sources Data Analysis Parameter Estimates... 8 v

7 List of Figures Figure Segmentation of Home Based Work (White Collar) Trips... iv Figure Segmentation of Home Based Work (White Collar) Trips... 4 Figure Segmentation of Home Based Work (Blue Collar) Trips... 4 Figure Segmentation of Home Based Education (Primary) Trips... 5 Figure Segmentation of Home Based Education (Secondary) Trips... 5 Figure Segmentation of Home Based Education (Tertiary) Trips... 6 Figure Segmentation of Home Based Shopping Trips... 6 Figure Segmentation of Home Based Recreational Trips... 7 Figure Segmentation of Home Based Other Trips... 7 vi

8 List of Tables Table 1 - Coefficients of Travel Market Segmentation Models... 8 vii

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10 1 Introduction The Zenith Model of Victoria is one of a family of models developed by Veitch Lister Consulting (VLC) for transport planning in Australian cities and regions. This document is one in a series of working papers that collectively describe the calibration and validation of the Zenith Model of Victoria. The subject of this working paper is the Travel Market Segmentation Model developed for the Zenith Model of Victoria, including data analysis and estimated model parameters. This working paper does not include a description of the role and methodology of the Travel Market Segmentation Model. This information can be found in the Zenith framework document Zenith Framework Travel Market Segmentation. It is recommended that the framework document be read prior to reading this working paper. 1

11 2 Data Sources The Travel Market Segmentation Model for the Zenith Model of Victoria has been estimated using data extracted from 2 editions of the Victorian Integrated Survey of Travel and Activity (VISTA): VISTA07 (a sample of 17,115 Victorian households surveyed between June 2007 and June 2008); and VISTA09 (a sample of 16,269 Victorian households surveyed between July 2009 and July 2010). A more recent VISTA survey began in July 2012 but is not currently available for transport modelling purposes. Therefore VISTA07 and VISTA09 represent the latest available Victorian household travel surveys. 2

12 3 Data Analysis Data extracted from the VISTA survey has been processed as follows: Repeated sub-samples of 200 households were drawn (with replacement). Approximately 13,000 such samples were extracted; For each sub-sample, the average car ownership level was calculated; and For each sub-sample, for each trip purpose, the proportion of trips made by households of differing car ownership levels was calculated. The following household car ownership levels were considered: 0, 1, 2 and 3+. This processed data is presented separately for each (home based) trip purpose in Figure 3-1 through Figure 3-8, below. In particular, for each sub-sample referred to above: the x-axis records the average car ownership level of the households in the subsample; and 3 data points (blue, yellow and green) are drawn representing the proportion of trips made within the sub-sample by households owning 0 car, 1 or less cars, and 2 or less cars. The fitted segmentation curves (the parameters of which are listed in Section 0) are plotted as black lines which pass through the survey data, and divide the market into four segments. Specifically, the blue, yellow, green and red shaded regions represent the proportion of trips made by 0, 1, 2, and 3+ car owning households respectively, given each level of average car ownership (as recorded on the x-axis). Referring to the Figures, it can be observed that the strength of the relationship tends to vary by trip purpose. In the non-educational purposes, the fit is very good, with average household car ownership found to be a good predictor of the proportion of trips made by households of differing car ownership levels. However, in the case of the educational purposes (particularly tertiary), the fit is weaker. The quality of the fit is most likely related to the strength of the (correlative) relationship between car ownership and trip making. It seems that car ownership is not highly correlated with the making of tertiary education trips. It is also the case, however, that household car ownership will play a lesser role in the destination and modal decisions of education trips, relative to other trip purposes, making this less of an issue. Overall, however, the Travel Market Segmentation model performs very satisfactorily. 3

13 Figure Segmentation of Home Based Work (White Collar) Trips Figure Segmentation of Home Based Work (Blue Collar) Trips 4

14 Figure Segmentation of Home Based Education (Primary) Trips Figure Segmentation of Home Based Education (Secondary) Trips 5

15 Figure Segmentation of Home Based Education (Tertiary) Trips Figure Segmentation of Home Based Shopping Trips 6

16 Figure Segmentation of Home Based Recreational Trips Figure Segmentation of Home Based Other Trips 7

17 4 Parameter Estimates The parameter estimates for the Victorian Travel Market Segmentation Model are presented in Table 1 below. Home-Based Work (White Collar) Home-Based Work (Blue Collar) Home-Based Education (Primary) Home-Based Education (Secondary) Home-Based Education (Tertiary) Home-Based Shopping Home-Based Recreation Home-Based Other Table 1 - Coefficients of Travel Market Segmentation Models 8