North Sea Offshore Grid Design

Transcription

1 North Sea Offshore Grid Design An Engineering-Economics Analysis for Market and Wind Integration in the North and Baltic Sea Region April 08, 2011 Enerday, Dresden Jonas Egerer and Friedrich Kunz Technische Universität Berlin Workgroup for Economic and Infrastructure Policy Chair of Energy Economics and Public Sector Management

2 Agenda 1. Introduction and Literature Overview 2. Modelling Approach 3. Scenarios 4. Results 5. Conclusion -2-

3 North Sea Grid (NSG)? Situation today: Wind generation onshore (Denmark, Germany, etc.) Highly separated markets (UCTE, Nordpool, UK) Few offshore connectors in the North Sea (UK-FR, NorNed) -3-

4 Potentials, Capacities and Volumes Offshore Capacity North Sea: 2020: 25-30GW 2030: 40-75GW Hydro reservoirs today: Norway: ~28GW ~130TWh/year Alps: ~10GW Source: EU (2010), European Wind Atlas (1989), EWEA (2009), EWEA (2010), Rodrigues and Woyte (2010). -4-

5 NSG Studies TradeWind (2009): - Zonal modeling approach with system cost minimization - Quantification of offshore grid layouts (meshed design with cost of M/year) - Meshed offshore grids design economically most beneficial (+ 326M/year) - European wind generation data: 2005: 42GW 2020: 200GW 2030: 268GW OffshoreGrid project ( ): - Follow-up project - Preparation of blueprints for an offshore grid - Probably based on nodal analysis with system cost minimization Source: EWEA (2009), EWIS (2010). -5-

6 NSG Study SRU - Wege zur 100 % erneuerbaren Stromversorgung (2011) - Scenarios with integration of Norwegian storage capacities and net electricity imports from Norway see lower total electricity prices for Germany than scenarios with self-sufficiency - Transformation of Norwegian hydro reservoirs to pump storage plants and investment in NSG is required Source: Sachverständigenrat für Umweltfragen (2011). -6-

7 Research Question What impact do different NSG design have for different wind capacity levels? Objectives of the aspired design: - Internal European market Trade connections - Offshore wind integration Offshore clusters, meshed offshore allocation? - Security of supply Smoothing of variable renewable generation Also impact on design by: - Balancing wind with Scandinavian hydro power? - Bypass for onshore grid congestions? - Consideration of rent shifting? -7-

8 Agenda 1. Introduction and Literature Overview 2. Modelling Approach 3. Scenarios 4. Results 5. Conclusion -8-

9 ELMOD An Engineering-Economic Model of the European Electricity Market Model characteristics: - Welfare maximization - DC load flow - LMP - UCTE region - Optimization model - Perfect competition Source: Leuthold, Weigt and von Hirschhausen (2009). -9-

10 ELMOD An Engineering-Economic Model of the European Electricity Market Model characteristics: - Welfare maximization - DC load flow and LMP (~3,000 nodes) Model scope: - Three separated AC control zones - Connected by HVDC offshore grid - Free allocation of hydro reservoir generation - UCTE, Great Britain and Nordpool market - Reference year: 2009 Scenarios: - Offshore grid design (radial, trade, meshed) - Wind generation 2009, 2020, 2030 (PRIMES) - No change for the other input parameters Output: - Total and zonal welfare and individual rents - Trade flows, LMPs, hydro reservoir generation -10-

11 Time Resolution of the Model -11-

12 Agenda 1. Introduction and Literature Overview 2. Modelling Approach 3. Scenarios 4. Results 5. Conclusion -12-

13 Wind scnearios Wind scenarios for 2009 (reference year ) Wind capacities for 2020 and 2030 [GW] North Sea Baltic Sea Total offshore Total Onshore

14 Different Network Designs Applications for undersea HVDC cables A Radial Offshore clustering of wind power and radial connection to closest shoreline Key driver: Wind integration Offshore clustering of wind power and radial connection to closest shoreline B Radial/Trade Additional trade links between onshore nodes Key driver: Wind integration and trade Clustering of wind power to offshore hubs C Meshed Integration of wind in a meshed offshore grid Key driver: Wind integration/balancing and flexibility -14-

15 Agenda 1. Introduction and Literature Overview 2. Modelling Approach 3. Scenarios 4. Results 5. Conclusion -15-

16 Welfare Results System welfare gains and rent shifting: - Additional welfare about 500M/year highest for meshed scenario Absolute value might be higher for more detailed implementation of wind fluctuation, start-up and ramping costs of power plants, etc. - Meshed design has more conection points onshore, therefore creates less onshore bottlenecks and enables a better price convergence than simple trade connectors Interdependency offshore/onshore expansion! Change in surpluses in the regulated scenario (C) compared to radial wind integration (A) Consumer Surplus (CS) and Producer Rent (PR) for the Nordpool market (NP), UK and UCTE CS: Dark Color PR: Bright Color -16-

17 Electricity Flows Existing hydro reservoirs in Scandinavia and the Alps balance demand and wind generation in the model endogenously - More intermittent generation and the NSG combined will have an impact in the generation pattern of hydro reservoirs - Norway can substitute domestic production with electricity imports from excessive renewable generation and low demand (low price hours) Export (positive bars) and import trade flows (negative bars) from Norway into the NSG

18 Congestion Rents Two effects on Congestion Rent with NSG expansion: - Increasing rent: with new line capacity additional trade flows - Decreasing rent: more trade capacity converging prices at the end nodes of the line CR = price difference x trade flow Change in zonal welfare and CR compared to scenario A of the same year -18-

19 Agenda 1. Introduction and Literature Overview 2. Modelling Approach 3. Scenarios 4. Results 5. Conclusion -19-

20 Conclusion Endogenous reservoir generation levels are correlated to wind generation and demand levels, implementation of hydro reservoir market to nodal pricing model Issue of rent distribution expected but not to that degree value is ten times higher than welfare gains Model setup (without stochasticity, ramping costs, limited fluctuation in wind generation, etc.) underestimates price differences higher benefits from connections of storage generation to renewable generation (NSG) can be expected So far: Scenarios analysis without optimization of line capacities Endogenous optimization of NSG capacities for Impact of onshore transmission expansion -20-

21 North Sea Offshore Grid Design An Engineering-Economics Analysis for Market and Wind Integration in the North and Baltic Sea Region April 08, 2011 Enerday, Dresden Jonas Egerer and Friedrich Kunz Technische Universität Berlin Workgroup for Economic and Infrastructure Policy Chair of Energy Economics and Public Sector Management

22 References EU (2010): EU energy trends to Update Internet: observatory/trends_2030/doc/trends_to_2030_update_2009.pdf. European Wind Atlas (1989): European off-shore wind resources for five different heights above sea level. Internet: EWEA (2009): TradeWind - Integrating Wind - Developing Europe s power market for the large-scale integration of wind power. Internet: publications/final_report.pdf. EWEA (2010): European Offshore Wind Map Internet: EWIS (2010): European Wind Integration Study Final Report. Internet: Leuthold, Florian, Weigt, Hannes and von Hirschhausen, Christian (2009): ELMOD - A Model of the European Electricity Market, Working paper EM-00. Internet: Rodrigues, Glória and Woyte, Achim (2010): Presentation IEE Offshore Grid - 2nd Northern European Stakeholder Workshop. Internet: Sachverständigenrat für Umweltfragen (2011) Sondergutachten Wege zur 100 % erneuerbaren Stromversorgung. Internet: blob=publicat ionfile. Weigt, Hannes, Jeske, Till, Leuthold, Florian and von Hirschhausen, Christian (2010): Take the long way down: Integration of large-scale North Sea wind using HVDC transmission. In Energy Policy 38 (2010)