100% Renewable (Electricity for) Europe

Transcription

1 100% Renewable (Electricity for) Europe Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer Center for Sustainable Energy Systems (CSES) Europa-University Flensburg Energizing Futures 2018 Tampere, Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer 100% Renewable Europe Slide 1

2 Structure of the presentation 1. Climate change mitigation and 100% RE energy 2. Early 100% RE power supply scenarios for Germany, Europe and North Africa 3. Detailed results for Germany 4. Results for Europe and North Africa including Finland 5. Renewables and base load power plants? 6. Conclusions Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer 100% Renewable Europe Slide 2

3 Climate change mitigation and 100% RE energy Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer 100% Renewable Europe Slide 3

4 IPCC: Business as usual will induce 8 C temperature increase and more Source: IPCC 2013 (WG I, SPM, S.17) +8 C Source: IPCC 2013 (WG I), TS, S.89) Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer 100% Renewable Europe Slide 4

5 Long-term goal Main Results of COP 21 (Paris 2015) To give practical relevance to the 2 C temperature limit, the Paris Accord includes a long-term emission goal: as soon as possible and to achieve balance between emissions and sinks in the second half of the century. This is similar to emission neutrality and effectively means net-zero emissions after 2050! Source: CarbonBrief.org Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer 100% Renewable Europe Slide 5

6 The core solution to climate change: 100% renewable energy supply 100% reduction of global net GHG emissions after 2050 (COP 21) CO2 Energie 80.5% CO2 sonstig 5.1% CO 2 from coal, oil and gas cause more than 80% of the problem in industrialized countries CH4 5.3% SF6 0.4% N2O 7.3% FCKWs 1.4% Reichweite von CCS Speichern in Deutschland und Europa (Speichervolumen / jährliche CO2-Emissionen) Nuclear energy is no sustainable alternative (high risks and unsolved problems) Gesamtkapazität Kohleflöze Gas- und Ölfelder Saline Aquifere Speicherreichweite in Jahren CCS last only for about 35 years in Europe Deutschland Europa Source: EU Geocapacity Project 2009, p.21 CCS storage potential will be needed for Bio CCS after 2050 Source: IPCC 2007, p.7 Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer 100% Renewable Europe Slide 6

7 Early 100% RE scenarios for Germany, Europe and North Africa Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer 100% Renewable Europe Slide 7

8 100% renewable electricity The eight SRU scenarios Demand DE 2050: 500 TWh/a Demand DE 2050: 700 TWh/a Autonomous Germany Scenario 1.a DE-100 % SV-500 Scenario 1.b DE-100 % SV % REN production in Germany Exchange with DK/NO 15% Net import max. from DK/NO Scenario 2.1.a DE-NO/DK-100 % SV-500 Scenario 2.2.a DE-NO/DK-85 % SV-500 Scenario 2.1.b DE-NO/DK-100 % SV-700 Scenario 2.2.b DE-NO/DK-85 % SV % Net import from EU-North Africa Scenario 3.a DE-EUNA-85 % SV-500 Scenario 3.b DE-EUNA-85 % SV-700 Source: SRU 2011, p.69 Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer 100% Renewable Europe Slide 8

9 The REMix-Europe model used REMix-Europe (Renewable Energy Mix for Sustainable Electricity Supply in Europe) Inventory of REN-resources GIS, C Electricity demand GIS, C Linear optimization model GAMS (General Algebraic Modeling System) Source: Krewitt 2009 Source: Hohmeyer 2011 Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer 100% Renewable Europe Slide 9

10 The analyzed region Europe-North Africa Source: SRU 2011, p.62 Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer 100% Renewable Europe Slide 10

11 The potential for renewable electricity production in EU-North Africa (TWh/a) Potential Demand % of the potential Source: SRU 2011, p.77 Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer 100% Renewable Europe Slide 11

12 The situation for Germany (Scenario 2.1.a) Structure of Electricity Production Cost in Germany 2050 (c/kwh) 12,00 10,00 8,00 ct/kwh 6,00 4,00 2,00 Electricity Imports Compressed Air Storage Pump Storage Storage Hydro Run of River Hydro Biogas CHP Solid Biomass CHP Solid Biomass Geothermal CHP Geothermal Electricity Wind Off Shore Wind On Shore PV 0,00 1.a: DE- 2.1.a: DE- 2.2.a: DE- 3.a: DE- 1.b: DE- 2.1.b: DE- 2.2.b: DE- 3.b: DE- 100% SV- NO/DK- NO/DK-85% EUNA-85% 100% SV- NO/DK- NO/DK-85% EUNA-85% % SV- SV-500 SV % SV-700 SV SV7500 Scenario 12 Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer 100% Renewable Europe Slide 12

13 100% renewable electricity is possible under all scenarios (example Germany) Structure of Electricity Production in Germany plus Imports in Demand 700 TWh/a Demand 509 TWh/a TWh/a Imported Electricity Overproduction Compressed Air Storage Pump Storage Storage Hydro Run of River Hydro Biogas CHP Biomass CHP Solid Biomass Geothermal CHP Geothermal Electricity Wind Off Shore Wind On Shore PV 0 1.a: DE- 100% SV a: DE- NO/DK- 100% SV a: DE- 3.a: DE- NO/DK-85% EUNA-85% SV-500 SV-500 Scenario 1.b: DE- 100% SV b: DE- NO/DK- 100% SV b: DE- 3.b: DE- NO/DK-85% EUNA-85% SV-700 SV-700 Based upon: SRU 2011, p.86ff Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer 100% Renewable Europe Slide 13

14 Overproduction in isolation (Scenario 1.a) Szenario 1a: DE / 100% EE / 100% SV / 509 TWh MW hour Even an isolated German system is possible, but it needs 262 GW of capacity for 81 GW peak load. It leads to 53 TWh/a of overproduction. Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer Export Import Hydrogen discharging CAES discharging Pumped hydro discharging Residual load CSP PV Wind offshore Wind onshore Gaseous biomass Solid biomass Hydro Reservoir Run off river hydro Geothermal, CHP Geothermal Surplus Pumped hydro charging CAES Charging Hydrogen charging Load 100% Renewable Europe Source: SRU 2011, p.85 Slide 14

15 The impact of using Norwegian storage (Scenario 2.1.a DE/DK/NO) The Norwegian system supplies the necessary storage! Practically no overproduction remaining! Source: SRU 2011, p.90 Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer 100% Renewable Europe Slide 15

16 The necessary grid capacity for connection the Norwegian storage Scenario 2.1.a Maximale Übertragungskapazität in GW DE-DK-NO 2050 (Szenario 2.1a) Maximum transmission capacities between DE DK -NO NO 46 GW DK 42 GW DE Source: SRU 2011, p.137 Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer 100% Renewable Europe Slide 16

17 Impact on Norwegian hydro storage in 2050 (Scenario 2.1.a compared to 2008) Füllstand der norwegischen Speicherwasserkapazität mit Ein- und Ausspeicherung aus Szenario 2.1 für 2050 Max. level 84 TWh max Scenario 2.1.a 500 TWh/a 60 Energiemenge [TWh] Norway min. Min. level 0 TWh Scenario 2.1.b 700 TWh/a Zeit [Woche] NO real 2008 Minimaler Speicherfüllstand Maximaler Speicherfüllstand Szenario 2.1a Szenario 2.1b Source: SRU 2011, p.133 Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer 100% Renewable Europe Slide 17

18 Only minimal changes to the Norwegian hydro power system are required The example of Sira-Kvina The Sira-Kvina hydropower system 5,6 TWh storage capacity This system alone can be expanded to more than 10 GW pump storage capacity without any new dam! Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer 100% Renewable Europe Slide 18

19 Electricity costs of less than 7 Cent per kwh in 2050 (Germany) Structure of Electricity Production Cost in Germany 2050 (c/kwh) 12,00 10,00 7,0 ct/kwh 8,00 Electricity Imports Compressed Air Storage Pump Storage ct/kwh 6,00 Storage Hydro Run of River Hydro Biogas CHP Solid Biomass CHP 4,00 Solid Biomass Geothermal CHP Geothermal Electricity Wind Off Shore Wind On Shore 2,00 PV 0,00 1.a: DE- 100% SV a: DE- NO/DK- 100% SV a: DE- NO/DK-85% SV a: DE- EUNA-85% SV-500 Scenario 1.b: DE- 100% SV b: DE- NO/DK- 100% SV b: DE- 3.b: DE- NO/DK-85% EUNA-85% SV-700 SV-700 Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer 100% Renewable Europe Slide 19

20 The German pathway 2010 to 2050 No additional conventional plants needed Electricity Production in Germany 2005 to 2050 (Scenario 2.1.a) Government target for 2020: reduction to 520 TWh/a TWh/a Year Old Nuclear Old Lignite Old Hard Coal Old Natural Gas Other Old Conventional Hydropower Geothermal Energy Wind Offshore Biomass PV Geothermie Natural Gas Plants under Construction Hard Coal Plants under Construction Lignite Plants under Construction Source: SRU 2011, p.114 Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer 100% Renewable Europe Slide 20

21 100% REN could be achieved by 2030 (if the grid is reinforced fast enough) Installed Renewable Energy Capacity 2005 to 2050 (Scenario 2.1.a) 180,0 160,0 140,0 Expansion of renewables only slows down after 2023 to allow the operation of conventional power plants of 35 years 120,0 100,0 GW 80,0 60,0 40,0 20,0 0, Year Hydro Power Wind Onshore Wind Offshore Biomass Geothermal Energy Geothermie Source: SRU 2011, p.116 Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer 100% Renewable Europe Slide 21

22 The results for Europe and North Africa (Scenario 3.a) Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer 100% Renewable Europe Slide 22

23 Shares of different renewable energy sources in the different countries in 2050 Scenario 3.a Share of different renewable energy sources in all countries in 2050 in % RES production 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Albania/Serbia/Macedonia Bosnia/Croatia/Slovenia Austria Belgium Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Ireland Estonia/Lithuania/Latvia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Italy Slovakia Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Romania Spain Sweden Switzerland/Liechtenstein Turkey % Great Britain Ukraine/Moldavia Belarus Algeria Morokko Tunesia Libya Egypt Hydro reservoir Run off river hydro Gaseous biomass (CHP) Gaseous biomass Solid biomass (CHP) Solid biomass Geothermal (CHP) Geothermal Wind offshore Wind onshore CSP PV Based upon: SRU 2011, p.428 Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer 100% Renewable Europe Slide 23

24 5 to 8 c/kwh electricity costs (LCOE) in most countries in 2050 Scenario 3.a Production, storage and import costs in the different countries in 2050 in c/kwh Source: SRU 2011, p.426 Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer 100% Renewable Europe Slide 24

25 Net imports and exports in 2050 in TWh/a and % Scenario 3.a Net imports and exports of electricity in the different countries in 2050 in TWh/a and in % of annual domestic electricity demand Export 15% imports, Belgium 33%, Luxemburg 67% Source: SRU 2011, p.429 Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer 100% Renewable Europe Slide 25

26 Capacities, generation and costs of 100% renewable power for Finland 2050 Energy sources used Capacity installed Generation Costs LCOE GW TWh/a Mio. /a ct /kwh Offshore wind energy Solid biomass with CHP Biogas Biogas with CHP Storage hydropower Sums and averages (gross) Net imports Compressed air storage - storing Compressed air storage - generations Storage losses Total demand / total costs / LCOE Source: SRU 2011, unpublished calculations available to the author Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer 100% Renewable Europe Slide 26

27 Massive increases in grid capacities will be necessary throughout Europe by 2050 Scenario 3.a Maximum transmission capacities for Maximale Transportkapazitäten in GW all countries (Szenario 3a) NO 115,7 18,5 SE 3,7 9,1 FI 5,6 PT IE 48,7 ES 4,7 73,4 EE/LT/LV 16,8 DK 20,5 61,4 52,2 19,1 2,1 BY UK NL 20,3 9,4 DE PL 5,1 3,4 BE 8,9 89,4 3,0 LU 2,2 4,0 11,2 86,8 CZ 12,2 5,5 2,1 SK 26,8 20,3 AT 8,6 3,7 CH/LI HU FR 4,9 18,5 11,3 3,6 RO 26,9 BA/HR/SI IT 5,4 6,6 45,1 2,6 10,1 AL/CS/MK BG 8,8 18,9 6,2 4,6 8,3 GR 17,1 4,9 U/MD 81,6 TR 3,0 14,4 MT 42,3 CY MA 9,0 DZ TN 21,9 40,9 LY EG Source: SRU 2011, p.139 Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer 100% Renewable Europe Slide 27

28 The necessary grid capacity in 2050 Mainly three north-south corridors Scenario 3.a Maximum transmission capacities for all countries Maximale Transportkapazitäten in GW (Szenario 3a) NO 115,7 18,5 SE 3,7 9,1 FI 5,6 PT IE 48,7 ES 4,7 73,4 EE/LT/LV 16,8 DK 20,5 61,4 52,2 19,1 2,1 BY UK NL 20,3 9,4 DE PL 5,1 3,4 BE 8,9 89,4 3,0 LU 2,2 4,0 11,2 86,8 CZ 12,2 5,5 2,1 SK 26,8 20,3 AT 8,6 3,7 CH/LI HU FR 4,9 18,5 11,3 3,6 RO 26,9 BA/HR/SI IT 5,4 6,6 45,1 2,6 10,1 AL/CS/MK BG 8,8 18,9 6,2 4,6 8,3 GR 17,1 4,9 U/MD 81,6 TR 3,0 14,4 MT 42,3 CY MA 9,0 DZ TN 21,9 40,9 LY EG Based upon: SRU 2011, p.139 Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer 100% Renewable Europe Slide 28

29 Renewables and base load power plants? Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer 100% Renewable Europe Slide 29

30 The German electricity production with about 35% RE ( ) Source: AGORA Energiewende, AGORAMETER, accessed June 13th, 2018 at: Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer 100% Renewable Europe Slide 30

31 Highly fluctuating conventional power generation results (Germany ) Many base load plants (lignite and nuclear) have to shut down temporarily Source: AGORA Energiewende, AGORAMETER, accessed June 13th, 2018 at: Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer 100% Renewable Europe Slide 31

32 Already critical periods of high RE generation and low demand ( ) Source: AGORA Energiewende, AGORAMETER, accessed June 13th, 2018 at: Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer 100% Renewable Europe Slide 32

33 Base load power plant generation reduced to less than 15 GW ( ) Only massive exports avoid shutting even more down base load plants (lignite and nuclear) Source: AGORA Energiewende, AGORAMETER, accessed June 13th, 2018 at: Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer 100% Renewable Europe Slide 33

34 A simulation for 2020 shows growing impacts on base load power plants Source: SRU 2011, p.146 Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer 100% Renewable Europe Slide 34

35 Conclusions Climate change mitigation will need a 100% decarbonisation of electricity generation A 100% renewable power supply is possible for Europe and North Africa by 2050 or earlier The electricity costs will be in the same range as present generation costs North Africa will be a net importer of electricity A 100% RE power supply for Finland is possible Base load power plants will not survive economically during the transition period Investments in grid reinforcements and storage will be key Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer 100% Renewable Europe Slide 35

36 Thank you very much for your attention Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer 100% Renewable Europe Slide 36