World Agricultural Outlook Board Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts. Lockup Briefing July 11, 2014

Transcription

1 World Agricultural Outlook Board Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts Lockup Briefing

2 World Wheat Production Country or Region estimate 2014/15 forecast June 11 Million Tons Percent Percent World United States Foreign Argentina Canada Australia European Union Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan China India

3 Wheat is grown across much of Europe, with the big hitters being France, U.K., Germany, and Poland. The EU collectively is the globe s largest wheat producer.

4 In Germany, mid- to late-may was critical for wheat yields, versus the more typical late May and early June. Critical Dev Stages

5 Ireland U.K. Neth. Poland Bel. Germany Czech Slovakia France Switz Austria Hungary Romania Italy Serbia Port. Spain Bulgaria Greece Virtually every major wheat area received near- to above-normal rainfall during May, improving wheat yield prospects. The early end to the Water Year was evident in Spain, as was the Serbian flooding.

6 June Crop Travel in Germany Confirms a Large Wheat Crop 6

7 Wheat Production Changes July 2014

8 World Wheat Supply and Use estimate 2014/15 forecast June 11 Million Tons Percent Percent Beginning stocks Production Total Supply Feed use Total use Trade Ending Stocks

9 U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand estimate 2014/15 forecast June 11 Percent Percent Planted area (million acres) Harvested area (million acres) Yield (bushels per acre) Million bushels Beginning stocks Production 2,130 1, Imports Total supply 3,016 2, Food use Seed Feed and residual Domestic use 1,244 1, Exports 1, Total use 2,426 2, Ending stocks Percent Stocks to use ratio Dollars per bushel Average market price /

10 World Corn Production Country or Region estimate 2014/15 forecast June 11 Million Tons Percent Percent World United States Foreign Argentina Brazil Mexico Canada European Union FSU Ukraine Russia South Africa China India

11 Brazil Corn Production First-season compared to second-season First-season Corn Planting began in September Crop is harvested. Some damage from heat and drought. Corn production used by livestock industry. Second-season Corn Planting began in February High cost of production and low prices result in unprofitability. Rains in Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul, Goias, and Mato Grosso have increased yield potential. Corn production for export market.

12 2 nd Crop Corn Production Brazil Para Maranhao Piaui Rondonia Mato Grosso Tocantins Bahia 2 nd Corn: ~60% Goias Aw: Tropical wet and dry Cr: Subtropical Rain Mato Grosso do Sul Minas Gerais Corn Production *Average ( ) 2 nd Corn: ~40% Sao Paulo Minor Production Intensity Major Parana *Source: MINAG / IBGE Santa Catarina 2 nd Corn crop calendar for most of Center-South Brazil Rio Grande do Sul Plant Harvest JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board

13 Metric Tons Per Hectare (mt/ha) May 1 June 10 Mato Grosso *2nd Crop Corn Yields : Above-normal rainfall, then early end to season Source: IBGE/CONAB Observed Predicted Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board

14 Metric Tons Per Hectare (mt/ha) May 1 June 10 Mato Grosso *2nd Crop Corn Yields : Above-normal rainfall, then scattered showers in May Source: IBGE/CONAB Observed Predicted Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board

15 World Corn Supply and Use estimate 2014/15 forecast June 11 Million Tons Percent Percent Beginning stocks Production Total Supply 1, , Feed use Total use Trade Ending Stocks

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17 U.S. Corn Supply and Demand estimate 2014/15 forecast June 11 Percent Percent Planted area (million acres) Harvested area (million acres) Yield (bushels per acre) Million bushels Beginning stocks 821 1, Production 13,925 13, Imports Total supply 14,781 15, Feed and residual 5,175 5, Food, seed, and industrial 6,460 6, Ethanol 5,075 5, Domestic use 11,635 11, Exports 1,900 1, Total use 13,535 13, Ending stocks 1,246 1, Percent Stocks to use ratio Dollars per bushel Average market price 4.35/ /

18 Crop Water Requirements Compared to Average Monsoon Rainfall (890 mm) (35 inches) and Drought: < 820 mm (10% below) <32 inches Crop Water Requirement(mm) Rice Wheat Sorghum Maize Sugarcane Groundnut Cotton Soybean Note: Drought classification>> Atmospheric, hydrologic, agricultural ** * *** *27 51 inches *18 28 inches

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21 June represents about 20% of the normal rainfall that falls during the monsoon season which implies the poor performance of June rainfall is not as important as July and August rainfall Continued poor monsoon performance during July and August can prove devastating to many crops and water supply. In fact continued dry weather beyond mid-july usually results in production cuts for many crops, but especially oilseeds, corn and sorghum.

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23 42% of rice crop is experiencing below normal rainfall (<=75%).

24 World Rice Production Country or Region estimate 2014/15 forecast June 11 Million Tons Percent Percent World United States Foreign Brazil Egypt Bangladesh Cambodia China India Indonesia Japan Sri Lanka Pakistan Philippines Thailand Vietnam

25 World Rice Supply and Use estimate 2014/15 forecast June 11 Million Tons, milled Percent Percent Beginning stocks Production Total Supply Total use Trade Ending Stocks

26 U.S. Rice Supply and Demand Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice estimate 2014/15 forecast June 11 Percent Percent Planted area (million acres) Harvested area (million acres) Yield (pounds per acre) 7,694 7, Million cwt Beginning stocks Production Imports Total supply Domestic use Exports Total use Ending stocks Percent Stocks to use ratio Dollars per cwt Average market price /

27 98% of soybean crop is experiencing below normal rainfall (<=75%)

28 World Soybean Production Country or Region estimate 2014/15 forecast June 11 Million Tons Percent Percent World United States Foreign Argentina Brazil Paraguay Ukraine India China

29 U.S. Soybean Supply and Demand 2014/15 estimate forecast June 11 Percent Percent Planted area (million acres) Harvested area (million acres) Yield (bushels per acre) Million bushels Beginning stocks Production 3,289 3, Imports Total supply 3,514 3, Crush 1,725 1, Seed and residual Domestic use 1,754 1, Exports 1,620 1, Total use 3,374 3, Ending stocks Percent Stocks to use ratio Dollars per bushel Average market price /

30 83% of cotton crop is experiencing below normal rainfall (<=75%).

31 World Cotton Production Country or Region estimate 2014/15 forecast June 11 Million Bales Percent Percent World United States Foreign Argentina Brazil Turkey Syria Australia China India Pakistan Uzbekistan African Franc Zone

32 World Cotton Supply and Use estimate 2014/15 forecast June 11 Million Bales Percent Percent Beginning stocks Production Total Supply Consumption Trade Ending Stocks Addendum: China Ending Stocks

33 U.S. Cotton Supply and Demand estimate 2014/15 forecast June 11 Percent Percent Planted area (million acres) Harvested area (million acres) Yield (pounds per acre) Million bales Beginning stocks Imports Production Total supply Mill use Exports Total use Unaccounted Ending stocks Percent Stocks/use Cents per pound Average market price /

34 Contiguous U.S. 45% D0 D4 34% D1 D4

35 Subsoil Moisture for Major Texas Cotton Districts as of July 6 - percent very short and short % Very short % Short N 1S 2N 2S (Amarillo) (Lubbock) (Childress) (Abilene)

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37 Calculation of July 2014 U.S. Cotton Production Estimate Item Unit 2013 June July Planted mil. acres Harvested mil. acres Aband. Rates: % U.S. (Southwest) 27.6 (45.9) 21.2 (34.0) 14.7 (23.0) Yield/acre lbs Production mil. bales

38 Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand 2014/15 estimate forecast June 11 Thousand MT Percent Percent Beginning stocks 1, Production 6,025 6, Imports Total Supply 7,711 7, Domestic use 4,690 4, Exports 2,358 1, Total Use 7,048 6, Ending stocks

39 U.S. Sugar Supply and Demand estimate 2014/15 forecast June 11 1,000 short tons, raw value Percent Percent Beginning Stocks 2,158 1, Production 8,442 8, Beets 4,750 4, Cane 3,692 3, Imports 3,674 3, TRQ 1,458 1, Re-export Mexico 1,996 1, High-tier Total Supply 14,274 13, Exports Domestic deliveries 12,141 11, Total use 12,466 12, Ending stocks 1,808 1, Percent Stocks/use ratio

40 U.S. Meat Production and Prices 2014 estimate 2015 forecast June Production Billion pounds Percent Percent Beef Pork Broilers Turkey Total meat Prices Dollars/cwt Steers Hogs Cents/lb Broilers Turkey

41 U.S. Meat Trade Million Pounds 2014 estimate 2015 forecast June Exports Percent Percent Beef 2,518 2, Pork 5,005 5, Broilers 7,356 7, Turkey Mature Chickens Total meat 15,714 15, Imports Beef 2,521 2,

42 U.S. Milk Supply and Demand 2014 estimate 2015 forecast June Billion pounds Percent Percent Production Imports Commercial use Exports Average market price 1/ Dollars/cwt Class III Class IV All milk / Prices are mid-point of published forecasts; milk of average fat test.

43 U.S. Dairy Product Prices 2014 estimate 2015 forecast June Product prices Dollars/pound Percent Percent Cheese Butter Nonfat dry milk Dry whey Class prices Dollars/cwt Class III Class IV All milk

44 U.S. Production Summary 2014/15 estimate forecast June 11 Percent Percent Crops and Products Wheat (Million bu) 2,130 1, Rice (Million cwt) Corn (Million bu) 13,925 13, Sorghum (Million bu) Barley (Million bu) Oats (Million bu) Soybeans (Million bu) 3,289 3, Soybean oil (Million lbs) 20,215 20, Soybean meal (Thousand s.t.) 41,010 41, Cotton (Million bales) Sugar (Thousand s.t., raw value) 8,442 8, Milk (Billion lbs) Meat (Billion lbs) Beef Pork Broilers Turkey Total Meat

45 Domestic Demand Summary 2014/15 estimate forecast June 11 Percent Percent Crops and Products Wheat (Million bu) 1,244 1, Rice (Million cwt) Corn (Million bu) 11,635 11, Sorghum (Million bu) Barley (Million bu) Oats (Million bu) Soybeans (Million bu) 1,754 1, Soybean oil (Million lbs) 18,750 18, Soybean meal (Thousand s.t.) 29,600 30, Cotton (Million bales) Sugar (Thousand s.t., raw value) 12,141 11, Milk (Billion lbs) Meat (Billion lbs) Beef Pork Broilers Turkey Total meat

46 U.S. Export Summary 2014/15 estimate forecast June 11 Percent Percent Crops and products Wheat (Million bu) 1, Rice (Million cwt) Corn (Million bu) 1,900 1, Sorghum (Million bu) Barley (Million bu) Soybeans (Million bu) 1,620 1, Soybean oil (Million lbs) 1,700 2, Soybean meal (Thousand s.t.) 11,650 11, Cotton (Million bales) Meat (Million lbs) Beef 2,518 2, Pork 5,005 5, Broilers 7,356 7, Turkey Mature Chickens Total meat 15,714 15,

47 Price Summary 2014/15 estimate forecast June 11 Percent Percent Crops and products Wheat ($/bu) Rice ($/cwt) Corn ($/bu) Soybeans ($/bu) Soybean oil ( /lb) Soybean meal ($/s.t.) Cotton ( /lb) Livestock Steers ($/cwt) Hogs ($/cwt) Broilers ( /lb) Turkeys ( /lb) Dairy products Cheese Butter Nonfat dry milk Dry whey Milk classes Class III ($/cwt) Class IV ($/cwt) All milk ($/cwt)