Modeling Tools Used in New Jersey s 126 Petition Against Portland Power Plant

Transcription

1 Modeling Tools Used in New Jersey s 126 Petition Against Portland Power Plant

2 Section 126 Clean Air Act A state may petition the Administrator for a finding that a major source or group of stationary sources emits or would emit any air pollutant in violation of the prohibition in 110(a)(2)(D) (Prohibits a source in one state from causing or significantly contributing to a NAAQS violation in another state)

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4 Portland Generating Station Located in Pennsylvania but within 500 feet of New Jersey Unit 1 Coal-fired, 160 MW / 1958 Unit 2 Coal-fired 240 MW / 1962 No existing emission controls for SO 2, ESP for particulate matter controls, low-nox burners In 2009, the facility emitted more SO 2 than all units in the entire State of New Jersey

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6 126 Petition Milestones May Initial NJ petition alleging violations of 3- hr and 24-hour SO 2 NAAQS Sept Supplemental NJ 126 petition alleging violations of the new 1-hr SO 2 NAAQS March 2011 Additional NJ submittals based on Sept Feb monitoring data NJ Weight-of-Evidence Demonstration four arguments

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10 Use of Calpuff Based on EPA Guidance CALPUFF - apply at locations with complex, non steadystate local winds generated by terrain variations. CALPUFF can be approved for use if: 1) There is an applicable performance evaluation 2) CALPUFF performs better for the given application than EPA s preferred model (AERMOD) CALPUFF/AERMOD Validation Study (see CALPUFF and AERMOD Model Validation Study in the Near Field: Martins Creek Revisited, A. Dresser and R. Huizer, June 2011 Journal of AWMA)

11 NJDEP CALPUFF Validation Study Both models performed reasonably well CALPUFF out performed AERMOD in each of the 4 components of the validation CALPUFF Compliance Modeling Version 5.8, level MM-5 data, 4 km grid supplemented with surface obs.

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13 AERMOD Modeling

14 Portland Meteorological Data July June meter meteorological tower SODAR WS/WD at 30 m intervals, beginning at 120 m and continuing to 510 m Processed with AERMET (version 06341)

15 Portland Met. Station Wind Roses

16 AERMOD (version 09292) Two Model Runs 1) Allowable SO2: 14,720 lb/hr (both units) 2) Actual SO2 : Based on monthly coal use No other sources included No background included

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19 Summary of AERMOD Results 1-Hour SO2 NAAQS (196 ug/m3) no background included Meteorological Time Period Emissions Days Violating NAAQS % Over NAAQS Allowable % (~ 6 x NAAQS) Actual (avg. monthly) % (~ 1.4 x NAAQS) No predicted violations of the 3-hour or 24-hour NAAQS

20 Columbia Lake Monitor

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22 Sept. 23 rd 2010 to Feb. 17 th 2011 Hourly SO 2 Data from the Columbia Lake Monitor

23 Columbia Lake Monitor Trajectory Analysis

24 Data Needs for Trajectory Analysis Hourly SO 2 ambient monitoring data Hourly SO 2 emissions data from nearby sources Hourly transport winds

25 160 Sulfur Dioxide Conc. (ppb) :00 AM 75 ppb 9:00 AM 7 10:00 AM :00 AM 12:00 PM 109 1:00 PM 136 2:00 PM 89 September 24, 2010 Episode 3:00 PM 69 4:00 PM 18 5:00 PM 4

26 Hourly SO 2 Emission Data Available from EPA Air Markets Program Data web site / Acid Rain Program: Data needed for all nearby sources with the potential for significant SO 2 emissions

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28 Hourly Measured SO 2 Concentrations and Emissions - Hours 10 thru 15 September 24, 2010 Hour (EDT) SO 2 (ppb) Portland Unit 1 (lbs/hr) Portland Unit 2 (lbs/hr) Martins Creek Units 3 & 4 (lbs/hr) ,985 4, ,140 5, ,133 5, ,005 4, ,034 4, ,231 5,103 1,809

29 Representative Transport Winds Wind trajectories obtained from NOAA s HYSPLIT Model at: NAM (Eta) forecast meteorological data (12 km grid) Winds from heights: 10m, 100m, 221m

30 Forward 1-Hour Trajectory from the Portland Power Plant (starting time of 11am EDT) Red = 10m Blue = 100m Green=221m SO2 = 98 ppb

31 Forward 1-Hour Trajectory from the Portland Power Plant (starting time of 12pm EDT) Red = 10m Blue = 100m Green=221m SO2 = 109 ppb

32 Forward 1-Hour Trajectory from the Portland Power Plant (starting time of 1pm EDT) Red = 10m Blue = 100m Green =221m SO2 = 136 ppb

33 Forward 1-Hour Trajectory from the Portland Power Plant (starting time of 2pm EDT) Red = 10m Blue = 100m Green=221m SO2 = 89 ppb

34 Contents of Supplemental 126 Petition 1-Hour CALPUFF Modeling : % SO 2 reduction 1-Hour AERMOD Modeling : 89 % SO 2 reduction Columbia Lake Monitor Data 9 exceedance episodes between Sept. 23, 2010 to Feb. 17, 2011 Columbia Lake Trajectory Analysis - trajectory analyses done for 4 violation episodes.

35 EPA s Response to Modeling NJ 1-Hour CALPUFF Modeling: not appropriate NJ 1-Hour AERMOD Modeling rerun with modified meteorological data: SODAR wind speed and direction measurements adjusted downward by 100 meters - stack base elevation 294 ft amsl - SODAR base level 610 ft amsl

36 EPA s AERMOD Modeling 4 th high 1-hr of 812 ug/m 3 81 % reduction in SO 2 emissions NJ 1-Hour AERMOD Modeling 4 th high 1-hr of 1402 ug/m 3 89 % reduction in SO 2 emissions

37 126 Petition Milestones (cont.) April June 2011 Public comment and hearing October 2011 EPA Final Rule granting Sept supplemental petition SO 2 Remedy: In 1 year - 60 % reduction in allowable SO 2 lbs/hr In 3 year - 81 % reduction in allowable SO 2 lbs/hr and lbs/mmbtu June 1, 2014 Coal units shutdown permanently