TERMS OF REFERENCE CLIMATE IMPACTS ON THE HIMALAYAS: AEROSOL-PRECIPITATION INTERACTION SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS. I. Background

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1 TERMS OF REFERENCE CLIMATE IMPACTS ON THE HIMALAYAS: AEROSOL-PRECIPITATION INTERACTION SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS I. Background The Himalaya, Karakoram, and Hindu Kush (HKHK) Mountain Ranges contain 60,000 square kilometers of ice, which is more ice than any other region outside the Poles. The combination of snowmelt, ice melt, and rain from these mountains forms the source of the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra, and six other large rivers in Asia. It s also a region in flux, having already experienced an increase in annual mean surface temperature of 1.5 C relative to the pre-industrial average (Stocker et al., 2014). As a result, most of the Himalayan glaciers have been retreating during the past century (Bolch et al., 2012 and Kääb et al., 2015). The purpose of this study is to identify the global and regional causes of potential future changes to the glacier and snow dynamics in the HKHK Mountains, present scenarios of possible glacier and snow changes under different climate change and air pollution scenarios, and determine implications for water resources within the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra Basins. This will be achieved through implementation of a spatially-distributed, medium complexity cryosphere hydrology model with a dynamic glacier representation. The model will require high spatial resolution climate inputs corresponding to each of the below outlined projection and sensitivity experiments. Snow and glacier changes in the HKHK Mountains are affected by a combination of global and regional climate change drivers. The global signal of change primarily corresponds to the sum of greenhouse gas emissions by all countries; regional drivers primarily correspond to short-lived climate pollutant (SLCP) 1 and other air pollutant production and transport within South Asia. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) will be used as the projected global climate net energy perturbation scenarios (Stocker et al., 2014 and Taylor et al., 2012). The purpose of these terms of reference (TOR) is to describe modeling experiments to examine the impacts of aerosols, black carbon and other air pollutants (e.g. mineral dust) on precipitation, temperature, and glacier surface albedo in the HKHK Mountains. The TOR describes two activities that may be undertaken by the same or separate vendors. The first activity, Aerosol-Monsoon Interaction, seeks to bound the effects of aerosols on regional-scale climate phenomenon (i.e. the monsoon). The second activity, Sector Impacts, investigates the sensitivity of precipitation, temperature, and glacier surface reflectance to aerosols - including black or brown carbon, - and other air pollutant production by specific emitting activities within SA. In this way, the first activity develops the broad regional climate scenarios in the context of global phenomenon and the second activity investigates specific regional perturbations to these broader global scenarios. Each vendor may bid on one or both of the activities. If a vendor bids on both activities, they should clearly articulate the advantage of procuring both services from the same vendor. Vendors are expected to demonstrate that the tools they will implement have produced valid results in similar problems and can produce valid results in the context of these Activities. Additionally, preference will be given to methods that include uncertainty estimates. 1 While the Short-Lived Climate Pollutants include black carbon, tropospheric ozone, methane and short-lived HFCs, it is black carbon that has the most significant regional influence given its role in snow/ice deposition resulting in surface albedo changes. 1

2 II. Statement of Vendor Task ACTIVITY 1: Aerosol-Monsoon Interaction Recent studies have proposed that absorbing aerosols such as black carbon induce large-scale upperlevel heating anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau in April and May, resulting in an early onset of the Indian monsoon (Lau et al., 2008; Meehl et al., 2008). Absorption by aerosols may also enhance lowerlevel heating (widely known as the elevated heat pump mechanism ), which intensifies the Indian monsoon. Vijayakumar et al. (2014) find that some of these effects vary by aerosol type and that aerosols, including black carbon, from urban/industrial and biomass burning sources are most strongly associated with earlier onset of the Indian monsoon, while mineral dust aerosols may have the opposite effect. Nigam and Bollasina (2010) argue, though, that the spatial pattern of observed aerosolprecipitation impacts are inconsistent with the elevated heat pump theory. Thus, there is significant uncertainty in the mechanisms driving observed changes in the monsoon and therefore model performance in representing such changes. The primary objective of this study is to assess the relative impact of aerosols on regional-scale climate phenomena in South Asia. These drivers will be examined in the context of RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 compared to a historic baseline scenario. Aerosol trajectories in CMIP5 simulations are distinct from greenhouse gas trajectories, with net global radiative impact of aerosols typically peaking much earlier than for greenhouse gases, but persisting for several decades in some regions, including South Asia (Bellouin et al., 2011 and Stocker et al., 2014). The forcing differences are attributed to rates of technology adoption (i.e. end-of-pipe control technologies that do not address carbon) as well as differences in aerosol and GHG lifetimes. The approach of this activity will be to produce simulations consistent with RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 and an additional simulation for each RCP in which the aerosol emissions over South Asia are removed. Due to the large uncertainties associated with modeling aerosol impacts on the monsoon, the simulations of future aerosol impacts associated with this activity will be considered a sensitivity analysis and interpreted with a critical lens. The output of this activity will be high-spatial resolution fields of precipitation and temperature corresponding to reasonable sensitivity bounds for a historic (observed) scenario and projected scenarios consistent with RCP 4.5 and 8.5. Spatial and temporal modeling resolutions should be suggested that are sufficient to capture transport dynamics induced by orography and changes in the monsoon s timing and spatial patterns. 2 At a minimum, output variables must include daily mean temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and precipitation. Additional variables of interest include wind speed, wind direction, and relative humidity. Preference will be given to vendors who are able to produce output at a spatial resolution that can be directly used as input to the cryosphere hydrology model, which will be run at a 30 arcsecond resolution. Ideally results will be dynamically downscaled, e.g. via a regional model nested within an underlying global model. It is also preferred that uncertainty estimates accompany the best-estimate results. If uncertainty estimates will be produced as part of the activity, please describe how they will be produced and their relevant characteristics in the bid. 2 The cryosphere hydrology model will be run at a daily time step and a spatial resolution of approximately 30 arcseconds. The climate analysis does not need to occur at this spatial resolution if doing so would be computationally prohibitive. 2

3 Components 1. Assess historic climate, accounting for aerosol impacts on timing and intensity of monsoon. The vendor will establish a best-estimate baseline climate scenario ( present) for the HKHK region. The baseline scenario must account for interactive aerosol impacts and prognostic cloud microphysics. Thus it is expected that models will have a detailed chemical mechanism and that a validated multi-pollutant inventory will be used as an input. The region most of interest for this analysis are the headwaters of the Indus, Brahmaputra, and Ganges (i.e. regions with glaciers and seasonal snow). A validation strategy should be suggested to ensure the historic baseline captures climate for this region. As an example, the climate datasets from Immerzeel et al. (2015), which are based on inverse modeling of glacier mass balances may provide a useful comparison; however, groups are encouraged to suggest alternative validation strategies. Global historic reanalysis datasets have a low spatial resolution (e.g. CFSR; Saha et al., 2010) making them incapable of capturing the impact of orography on transport of aerosols and climate in the Himalaya region. Thus historic reanalysis alone cannot serve as an adequate basis for a historic baseline scenario. 2. Assess projected future impacts of aerosols on timing and intensity of climate in HKHK region. More than 40 climate models participated in CMIP5. Often all climate models are used in assessing global projections, yet not all models are equally well suited to determine climate sensitivity to future boundary conditions. Of note in this context, aerosol treatment by each climate model varies greatly. For example, Wang (2015) terms some models as group 1 which contain interactive aerosol and prognostic cloud microphysics and another as group 2 which prescribe aerosol affects. 3 The current activity aims at understanding what the regional signal of aerosols is in climate model projections for RCP 4.5 and 8.5 for enabling the results of Activity 2 (described below) to be put in the context of changes caused by global phenomenon. This should be done through developing two model simulations for each RCP. The first will use the standard greenhouse gas and aerosol boundary conditions consistent with the RCP scenario. The second simulation will be the same as the first, except that the aerosol emissions from countries in South Asia will be eliminated. The purpose of these paired simulations are to diagnose the impacts that aerosols originating in South Asia may have on future climatic changes to the monsoon in the study region. The representation of this change signal could take many forms. For example, an ensemble of Group 1 models could be assessed to (hopefully) constrain the spread of projections between climate model projections. If this is done, the low-resolution climate model projections would need to be used as boundary conditions to a higher spatial resolution regional climate model (or higher-resolution regional nest). Alternatively, change factors (i.e. projection simulation minus historic simulation) could be calculated for Group 1 models. If this is done, the correction factors 3 Ten models that participated CMIP5 were selected as group 1 (G1) models in the analyses, these include: CanESM2 (Arora et al., 2011), CESM1-CAM5 (Neale et al., 2010), CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 (Rotstayn et al., 2012), FGOALS-g2 (Li et al., 2013), GFDL-CM3 (Donner et al., 2011), HadGEM2-ES (Martin et al., 2011), MIROC- ESM-CHEM and MIROC-ESM (Watanabe et al., 2011), MRI-CGCM3 (Yukimoto et al., 2012), and NorESM1-M (Kirkevåg et al., 2013). 3

4 would need to be applied to the output of Component 1. The vendor may suggest other methods for developing the projection scenarios. ACTIVITY 2: Sector Impacts The vendor will develop or utilize a chemical transport modeling framework of appropriate spatial resolution and with detailed emission inventory coverage over South Asia and the HKHK region to understand regional emission, chemical processing, transport, and deposition of black carbon, aerosols, and mineral dust in the headwater regions of the Indus, Brahmaputra, and Ganges Basins. This framework should be thought of as a means of analyzing the sensitivity of climate and glacier albedo changes induced by sector-specific aerosol emitting activities in SA. These sensitivity studies will be considered perturbations to the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 projection scenarios produced in Activity 1. The spatial extent of the inventory and model domain must include all sources of aerosols including both black carbon and mineral dust that impact the headwater regions of interest. The purpose of this activity, though, is to assess the sensitivity of pollutants originating from South Asian countries. Therefore, the pollutant sources from outside the region should be held constant in a manner consistent with future projections. Components 1. Establish a chemical transport modeling framework appropriate for capturing aerosol, black carbon, and mineral dust transport, climate effects, and deposition The vendor will propose an appropriate chemical transport model, meteorological data drivers (consistent with the output of Activity 1), spatial and temporal resolution and geographic domain extent appropriate to the task given the extremely complex terrain of the Himalayan region and the transport distance of pollutants from important emitters to headwater receptors. An updated aerosol and black carbon emissions inventory and boundary conditions for South Asia should be specified Perform model simulations to establish the relationship between emissions and effective changes to cryosphere inputs for five source sectors affecting three watershed receptors under two climate projection scenarios Establish black carbon, co-emitted pollution, and mineral dust deposition within each major watershed (e.g. Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra and potentially others within the geographic domain). Results should be provided in a form that enables them to be used to determine the change in effective (net) radiative forcing and precipitation inputs to the cryosphere hydrology model. The preferred set of results is changes in cryosphere surface albedo, temperature, and precipitation. Some alterations may be made to this set though, e.g. surface temperature lapse rate may substitute for temperature. The vendor can provide input on which results to provide, but the outputs should be determined in consultation with the cryosphere hydrology modeling team. 4 The inventory should be consistent with that used in Activity 1. For example, the ECLIPSE emission data set was created with the GAINS (Greenhouse gas Air pollution Interactions and Synergies; model (Amann et al., 2011), which provides emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases and shorter-lived species in a consistent framework (Stohl, et al., 2015). 4

5 Sensitivity analysis will be conducted for five major sources of aerosols and black carbon emissions: Diesel engines Residential solid biomass and kerosene wick lamps Open/agricultural burning Industry (including brick kilns) Oil/gas extraction and flaring Geographical emitter locations should be assessed at the state level within India, the province level for China, and the country level for other South Asia, East Asia and Central Asian neighbors. Emission scenarios should be coordinated and consistent with those used by the vendor conducting Activity 1. Receptor regions should be chosen in order to maximize differentiation between the receptors (with respect to sensitivity of emissions) and to focus on the headwater regions of the basins. Considerations If Activities 1 and 2 are awarded to separate vendors, the vendors must agree to share results with the other team and participate in group communication (i.e. both vendors and the World Bank project team). Therefore, multiple groups may submit a joint proposal in order to demonstrate their willingness and commitment to collaboration. Any proposal for conducting Activities 1 and 2 should clearly explain the benefits of awarding both activities to the same group. The proposal should also indicate willingness to accept an award for one activity and not the other (in case the World Bank finds a separate proposal for one of the activities more compelling). All work will need to be in a format that can be integrated with a cryosphere hydrology model evaluated at a spatial resolution of approximately 30 arcseconds and a daily temporal resolution. The approach will need to be methodologically detailed and robust (as reflected in attached concept note). The proposals are expected to include demonstration of model validation and performance. A task team composed of a primary consultant with (1 or more) subcontractors is acceptable if it would yield best results and intellectual rigor. The primary consultant will be responsible for assembling and leading. Methods, tools, and results will be subject to an advisory review panel and vendor should be open to communication with and amenable to suggestions by this panel consisting of 2-4 independent subject experts in order to strengthen the final products. III. Timing and Human Resources The vendor will work to complete deliverables from July 11, 2016 to December 31, This work will require regular collaboration and engagement with the World Bank team. Key milestones July, 2016 Methodological outline provided with proposal 5

6 Week of August 1, 2016 Team meeting (via webex) with WBG technical team (including both aerosol-monsoon modeling team and black carbon deposition modeling team, if necessary) Week of October 3, 2016 Baseline results for Activity 1 to be provided establishing historical patterns of precipitation and distinguishing (if possible) the potential role of air pollution in any observed Monsoon behavior. Week of October 31, 2016 RCP 4.5 and 8.5 results to be provided for Activity 1, establishing the sensitivity bounds for precipitation impacts due to air pollution in each of the three basins. Week of November 28, 2017 Emission Reduction Scenarios to be provided under Activity 2. Week of January 2, 2016 Draft report to be provided documenting methods, results and interpretation. January 23, 2017 Final documentation submitted IV. Deliverables Proposed dates are given below. In your proposal, please assess the appropriateness of these deadlines and suggest your own. Preference will be given to bidders who can perform the work expediently without sacrificing quality and with the best track records. Aerosol-Monsoon Interaction 1. Outline of technical approach and proposed methodology to be included with proposal. 2. Baseline results October 3, RCP 4.5 and 8.5 projection results October 31, Final documentation January 23, 2016 Sector Impacts 1. Outline of technical approach and proposed methodology to be included with proposal. 2. Setup of chemical transport modeling framework October 3, RCP 4.5 and 8.5 results November 28, Final documentation January 23, 2016 V. Consultant Qualifications Expert in atmospheric modeling of short-lived climate pollutants (including black carbon) with significant experience in policy analysis and air pollution and climate mitigation issues. Familiarity with meteorology and state-of-the-science emissions inventories for South Asia region. 6

7 Broad access to academic and private sector experts to contribute knowledge and assessments Robust publication record. Academic and multi-lateral agency experience. VI. Administrative and Reporting Arrangements The vendor will report directly to: Muthukumara Mani, Lead Economist, SARCE The vendor staff will be available for meetings and appointments per the schedule of the World Bank team. VII. Budget Each of the two components is expected to cost $60-90,000, which will be paid according to the following schedule: 10% at time of contract signing, 40% upon delivery of 1 st set of results, 50% upon delivery of final documentation. REFERENCES Amann, M., Bertok, I., Borken-Kleefeld, J., Cofala, J., Heyes, C., Höglund-Isaksson, L.,... & Sandler, R. (2011). Costeffective control of air quality and greenhouse gases in Europe: Modeling and policy applications. Environmental Modelling & Software, 26(12), Arora, V. K. et al. (2011), Carbon emission limits required to satisfy future representative concentration pathways of greenhouse gases, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L05805, doi: /2010gl Bellouin, N., Rae, J., Jones, A., Johnson, C., Haywood, J., & Boucher, O. (2011). Aerosol forcing in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations by HadGEM2 ES and the role of ammonium nitrate. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 116(D20). Bolch, T., Kulkarni, A., Kaab, A., Huggel, C., Paul, F., Cogley, J. G., Stoffel, M. (2012). The State and Fate of Himalayan Glaciers. Science, 336(6079), Donner, L. J. et al. (2011), The Dynamical Core, Physical Parameterizations, and Basic Simulation Characteristics of the Atmospheric Component AM3 of the GFDL Global Coupled Model CM3, J. Clim., 24, , doi: /2011jcli Immerzeel, W. W., Wanders, N., Lutz, A. F., Shea, J. M., & Bierkens, M. F. P. (2015). Reconciling high-altitude precipitation in the upper Indus basin with glacier mass balances and runoff. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19(11), Kääb, A., Treichler, D., Nuth, C., & Berthier, E. (2015). Brief Communication: Contending estimates of glacier mass balance over the Pamir Karakoram Himalaya. The Cryosphere, 9(2), Kirkevåg, A. T. et al. (2013), Aerosol-climate interactions in the Norwegian Earth System Model NorESM1-M, Geosci. Model Dev., 6, , doi: /gmd Lau, K.M., Ramanathan, V., Wu, G.-X., Li, Z., Tsay, S.C., Zhang, R., The joint aerosol monsoon experiment: a new challenge for monsoon climate research. Bull. Am. Meteor. Soc. 89, 369e383. 7

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