WP7: Global scale atmospheric mercury modelling
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1 WP7: Global scale atmospheric mercury modelling Oleg Travnikov Meteorological Synthesizing Centre East of EMEP (EMEP/MSC-E) Participants: MSC-E, CNR-IIA, GKSS
2 Main objectives of WP7 Models update and improvement based on GMOS measurements data Model assessment of present-day Hg levels and historical trends Evaluation of Hg intercontinental transport and its contribution to regional pollution Forecasting future changes of Hg levels on a global scale based on emission scenarios and climatologies Analysis of variation and uncertainty of model estimates Coupling global and regional models (WP8) for multiscale assessment
3 Participated models Consortium models Model Institution ECHMERIT CNR-IIA (Italy) GLEMOS EMEP/MSC-E (UNECE CLRTAP) Potential external partners GRAHM Environment Canada (Canada) GEOS-Chem Harvard University (USA) DEHM Environ. Research Ins. (Denmark) CMAQ-Hg (hem.) Lamar University (USA)
4 Participated models Characteristics ECHMERIT (CNR-IIA) GLEMOS (MSC-E) Coverage global global Spatial resolution variable (T42, ) variable (1 1 ) Vertical structure 19 layers up to 10 hpa 20 layers up to 10 hpa Driving meteorology on-line coupled with ECHAM5 off-line ECMWF, GEM driver Chemical reactants on-line off-line (MOZART) Gaseous oxidation agents Aqueous agents Summary of main model characteristics O 3, OH, H 2 O 2, Cl 2, MBL: Br O 3, OH, Cl 2, Polar reg.: Br, BrO oxidation O 3, OH, HOCl/OCl - O 3, OH, HOCl/OCl - reduction SO 3=, h SO 3 = Nesting no yes Multi-media no under development
5 TF HTAP multi-model experiment Global and regional Hg models intercomparison Aims of the study: Assessment of Hg global dispersion and intercontinental transport Evaluation of uncertainty in current model estimates on a global scale Recommendations for future model developments Participated models: CTM-Hg (AER) ECHMERIT (CNR-IIA) GEOS-Chem (Harvard Univ.) GRAHM (Environment Canada) GLEMOS (EMEP/MSC-E) CMAQ-Hg (USEPA/Lamar Univ.) Hg 0 concentrat., ng/m 3 Ensemble mean estimates of Hg 0 4 = 110ºE ºE East Asia GLEMOS ECMERIT Latitude
6 TF HTAP multi-model experiment 5 Global and regional Hg models intercomparison Hg 0 air concentration 50 Hg wet deposition flux Model, ng/m 3 2 Model, g/km 2 /y Observed, ng/m 3 Observed, g/km 2 /y CTM-Hg GEOS-Chem GRAHM GLEMOS CMAQ-Hg ECHMERIT Comment: Uncertainty analysis was based on limited set of observations and multi-model predictions
7 Structure of WP7 Update of modelling approaches and coupling with regional-scale models Model evaluation and sensitivity runs utilizing the GMOS measurement data Task 7.3 Assessment of Hg pollution levels for the present-day conditions and reproduction of historical trends Task 7.4 Evaluation of the Hg intercontinental transport and contribution of global sources to mercury deposition in Europe Task 7.5 Forecasting of future Hg pollution levels as well as source-receptor relationships for selected emission scenarios Task 7.6 Evaluation of the modelling results and uncertainty analysis
8 Timeline of WP7 Quarter Task 7.3 Task 7.4 Task 7.5 Task 7.6 Models update and coupling: Update of modelling approaches (atmospheric chemistry, removal processes, air-surface exchange) Preliminary testing of updated global models Coupling of global and regional models (WP8) through set up of data exchange interfaces and data formats
9 Timeline of WP7 Quarter Task 7.3 Task 7.4 Task 7.5 Task 7.6 Model evaluation and sensitivity runs: Model sensitivity runs for testing different parameterizations Comprehensive evaluation against monitoring data retrieved from past studies and first GMOS measurements Setting up the master model configurations for the project applications Additional model runs for the models evaluation vs. GMOS data
10 Timeline of WP7 Quarter Task 7.3 Task 7.4 Task 7.5 Task 7.6 Simulations of present levels and historical trends: Simulation of global distribution of Hg air concentration and deposition/evasion fluxes for present-day conditions Evaluation of long-term changes of Hg levels ( ) and comparison with observed historical trends Preparation of IC/BC for regional modelling (WP8)
11 Timeline of WP7 Quarter Task 7.3 Task 7.4 Task 7.5 Task 7.6 Intercontinental transport and source attribution: Estimates of intercontinental transport contribution to Hg pollution in Europe Model evaluation of source attribution of Hg deposition in sensitive receptor regions (Arctic, marine basins etc.)
12 Timeline of WP7 Quarter Task 7.3 Task 7.4 Task 7.5 Task 7.6 Future scenarios: Simulations of future changes of Hg levels according to emission scenarios for 2030 and 2050 (WP2) Forecasting of future changes in source attribution of Hg deposition in Europe and other receptor regions Support of regional modelling with IC/BC for future scenarios
13 Timeline of WP7 Quarter Task 7.3 Task 7.4 Task 7.5 Task 7.6 Uncertainty analysis: Comprehensive evaluation of simulation results vs. monitoring data obtained within the project (WP3-WP5) Evaluation of variability and uncertainty of model estimates based on model intercomparison (source attribution, forecasts) Recommendations for further models improvement
14 Models update and coupling Task program: 1. Update of modelling approaches 2. Preliminary testing of updated global models 3. Coupling of global and regional models
15 Models update and coupling Task program: 1. Update of modelling approaches Atmospheric chemistry (halogen reactions, AMDEs etc.) Removal processes (Hg 0 gas exchange) Re-emission (prescribed fluxes, multi-media approach) 2. Preliminary testing of updated global models 3. Coupling of global and regional models
16 Models update and coupling Task program: 1. Update of modelling approaches 2. Preliminary testing of updated global models 3. Coupling of global and regional models
17 Models update and coupling Task program: 1. Update of modelling approaches 2. Preliminary testing of updated global models 3. Coupling of global and regional models Elaboration of data exchange protocols and data format specifications Implementation of operational data exchange procedures into participated models
18 Models update and coupling M7.1 D7.1 Milestones of : M7.1 Agreed data exchange protocols and format specifications for coupling global and regional models (Month 6) Deliverables of : D7.1 Progress report on updated modelling approaches and coupling (Month 12)
19 Evaluation and sensitivity runs Task program: 1. Model sensitivity runs 2. Evaluation vs. monitoring data (past studies & GMOS obs.) 3. Focus on target environments 4. Implementation of findings into the master model configurations for the project applications
20 Evaluation and sensitivity runs Task program: 1. Model sensitivity runs Oxidation mechanisms (Br, O 3, OH, ) Reduction mechanisms (aqueous SO 3=, plumes) Rate constants of major reactions Oxidation products (RGM and/or HgP) Removal processes (wet/dry deposition, Hg 0 gas exchange) Natural and secondary sources 2. Evaluation vs. monitoring data (past studies & GMOS obs.) 3. Focus on target environments 4. Implementation of findings into the master model configurations for the project applications
21 Evaluation and sensitivity runs Task program: 1. Model sensitivity runs 2. Evaluation vs. monitoring data (past studies & GMOS obs.) Long-term ground based measurements of Hg 0 /TGM Long-term measurements of wet deposition Short-term observations of Hg species (ground-based and over water) Vertical profiles of Hg species concentration Measurements of Hg dry deposiotion/evation fluxes 3. Focus on target environments 4. Implementation of findings into the master model configurations for the project applications
22 Evaluation and sensitivity runs Task program: 1. Model sensitivity runs 2. Evaluation vs. monitoring data (past studies & GMOS obs.) 3. Focus on target environments: Free and upper troposphere Polar regions Marine boundary layer Continental PBL, pollution plumes 4. Implementation of findings into the master model configurations for the project applications
23 Evaluation and sensitivity runs Task program: 1. Model sensitivity runs 2. Evaluation vs. monitoring data (past studies & GMOS obs.) 3. Focus on target environments 4. Implementation of findings into the master model configurations for the project applications
24 Evaluation and sensitivity runs M7.2 D7.2 Milestones of : M7.2 Identified processes and mechanisms to be tested and program of sensitivity runs (Month 12) Deliverables of : D7.2 Report on the models update and improvements based on evaluation against observations (Month 24)
25 Interaction with other WPs Emissions data WP 2: Current and future scenarios of global emissions Task 2.1 Anthropogenic emissions Task 2.2 Natural emissions and re-emission Task 2.3 Emission scenarios WP 7: Global scale atmospheric Hg modelling Updates and coupling Sensitivity runs Task 7.3 Present-day and historical Task 7.4 Intercontinental transport Task 7.5 Future scenarios Task 7.6 Uncertainty analysis
26 Interaction with other WPs Measurements data WP 3-5: Ground-based, over-water, aircraft-based measurements Task 3.1 Past ground-based measurements Task 4.1 Past over-water measurements Task 5.1 Past aircraft measurements WP 7: Global scale atmospheric Hg modelling Updates and coupling Sensitivity runs Task 7.3 Present-day and historical Task 7.4 Intercontinental transport Task 7.5 Future scenarios Task 7.6 Uncertainty analysis
27 Interaction with other WPs Measurements data WP 3-5: Ground-based, over-water, aircraft-based measurements WP 3 GMOS ground-based measurements WP 4 GMOS over-water measurements WP 5 GMOS aircraft measurements WP 7: Global scale atmospheric Hg modelling Updates and coupling Sensitivity runs Task 7.3 Present-day and historical Task 7.4 Intercontinental transport Task 7.5 Future scenarios Task 7.6 Uncertainty analysis
28 Interaction with other WPs Coupling global and regional models WP 7: Global scale atmospheric Hg modelling Updates and coupling Sensitivity runs Task 7.3 Present-day and historical Task 7.4 Intercontinental transport Task 7.5 Future scenarios Task 7.6 Uncertainty analysis WP 8: Regional scale atmospheric Hg modelling Task 8.1 Coupling global and regional models Task 8.3 Reconstruction of long-term trends Task 8.4 Future scenarios
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