Table of Contents. Research Questions Training Demand Report 2013 DRAFT

Transcription

1 Yukon 2013

2 Table of Contents Introduction and Overview... 3 Background... 3 Rationale... 4 Benefits... 4 Not on the lists?... 4 Methodology... 5 Limitations... 6 Yukon s Top 25 Training Priorities for Featured Industry: Mining... 8 Appendix A... 9 Research Questions P a g e

3 Introduction and Overview In 2012, Yukon Education undertook the Labour Market Information Synthesis (LMI Synthesis). This was done to support the goals of the Labour Market Framework: specifically to provide relevant, quality and timely labour market information... The purpose of the LMI Synthesis is to integrate and analyze available labour market data, and identify occupations forecasted to be in high demand. This information can then be used to inform: 1. how government should target and prioritize funding for training programming; 2. priorities for Yukon College offerings over the next five years; and 3. decision-making by other labour market stakeholders. The LMI Synthesis report features a list of 25 occupations across multiple sectors which are forecast to be in high demand in Yukon over the next 5 to 8 years. Additionally, this report features information specific to the mining industry. As a result of the recent release of the Yukon Hiring Requirements and Available Talent Forecasts report, Yukon Education has identified 15 mining related occupations with the greatest talent gap. In an effort to meet future labour market needs, Yukon Education has identified training specific to the occupations listed in this report as a priority for labour market program funding. Background Yukon Education provides approximately $34,000,000 for post-secondary education each year. As demand for funding historically exceeds available dollars, the Labour Market Information Strategy was developed to create opportunities for the community at large to be consulted on the priorities for this funding. As Yukon s principle post-secondary education provider, Yukon College played an important role in the development of the LMI Synthesis. Yukon College is in the midst of developing a new five-year strategic plan. Historically, it has determined its program and course offerings based on community feedback through its President s committees, consultation with First Nations, responding to government priorities, and student uptake. New tools have been developed to forecast scenarios for labour market needs. These tools include: the Yukon Occupational Modelling System; Yukon Work Futures; and labour market projections made by the Mining Industry Human Resources Council. While these tools provide some insight into Yukon s future labour market needs, the LMI Synthesis provides a tool to help target and prioritize training programs that can best meet these needs. 3 P a g e

4 Rationale Reliable LMI is essential to effectively understand future labour market needs. In the absence of specific job offers to employees, LMI is the only reasonable way to make choices as to which of the many options are likely to be most beneficial to Yukon. Yukon Education seeks to support the labour market in examining the gaps between supply (employees) and demand (employers). The goal is to create a replicable system to synthesize and analyze available LMI in order to identify current and future training priorities. Benefits shorter assessment times for funding proposals; evidence-based support for funding applications; evidence-based support for wage subsidy applications; evidence-based support for Yukon Nominee Program (YNP) applications; better development of future program content; better tool to support longer term program planning; a good summative tool to supplement the WorkFutures website. Not on the lists? The Top 25 Training Priorities list and the Featured Industry list are tools used to assist in making funding decisions or to help individuals and organizations plan for the future. From a funding perspective, exclusion from this list does not mean support will not be considered. The LMI Synthesis removes the need to provide additional LMI to support a funding application. If a proposal points to training or employment that appears on these lists, there is sufficient LMI to support the project. The lists were based on synthesizing LMI for Yukon as a whole. Each individual, community and sector will still have opportunity to provide information that is specific to their context, which may not be reflected in the lists. 4 P a g e

5 Methodology Yukon s Top 25 Training Priorities list for 2013 is based on high demand occupations and is the result of the synthesis and analysis of data from two of Yukon s primary LMI tools: WorkFutures and the Yukon Occupational Modeling System (YOMS). Findings are supported and validated using a variety of other available LMI sources. Phase 1: Labour Market Analysis Step 1: Triangulate findings from YOMS and WorkFutures. Identify which occupations: have a forecasted labour market demand from both sources; have a forecasted labour market demand large enough to justify multiple training cohorts/intakes; Yukon WorkFutures is an indepth guide to career opportunities in the Yukon. The 100 career profiles provide information on trends and projections, including estimated job openings and annual growth rates in employment from have a forecasted labour market demand for 5 years or more; Step 2: Establish a list of top occupations that meet the criteria outlined in Step 1. Phase 2: Education and Training Analysis Step 3: Using the National Occupational Classification System determine the skill level of each occupation. Identify which occupations: have a forecasted labour market demand that can be addresses through formal education and or training. Step 4: Omit occupations from the list of top occupations that are identified as skill level D and do not require formal training or education. Phase 3: Secondary LMI Analysis Step 5: Collect additional data for each of the occupations on the top occupations list to support and validate findings. Economic Development The Yukon Occupational Modeling System (YOMS) was developed by the Yukon Department of Economic Development and C4SE and funded by Advanced Education. YOMS is an econometric forecasting model that allows the varying of a number of factors and produces employment forecasts by industry. *Refer to Appendix A for a complete list of research questions. 5 P a g e

6 Limitations Assumptions The results of the LMI Synthesis are limited by the accuracy of the forecasting models used by WorkFutures and YOMS. Forecasting models rely on a number of key assumptions and therefore produce projections which cannot be 100% accurate. Yukon s Top 25 Training Priorities list relies on assumptions made around the following: global economy; commodity prices; interest and exchange rates; Yukon boom and bust cycle; cyclical nature of the mining industry; major projects; demographics birth and death rates; labour force participation rates; Federal government fiscal policy; Yukon government policy. Availability and Reliability of Data 2011 National Household Survey data is not yet available, therefore, WorkFutures and YOMS use 2006 Census data as a primary source of LMI. It is important to acknowledge that 2006 Census data is old and in some cases out of date which will have an impact on results. Information on Labour Market Supply The tools used to determine Yukon s Top 25 Training Priorities list forecast anticipated labour market demand not the gap between labour market supply and demand. Therefore, priorities are based on high demand occupations which do not necessarily correlate with skills shortages. 6 P a g e

7 Yukon s Top 25 Training Priorities for 2013 NOC - S Occupation Other LMI Sources B211 & all B5 except B56 D112+D233 Secretaries (except medical and legal) and clerical occupations (except B56 mail and message distribution occupations) Registered nurses & licensed practical nurse H611 Heavy equipment operators (except crane) G412+G411 +G942 Chefs & cooks & bakers A211+G011 E217 D012+D011 A381 E132 B311+A114 E212 I131 H711 E211 B011+A111 B021+B313 E121 G811 A222 A012 D312 E022 G611+A351 A221 E031 Retail trade managers & supervisors Early childhood educators and assistants General practitioners and family physicians & specialist physicians Primary production managers Elementary school and kindergarten teachers Administrative officers & other administrative services managers Community and social service workers Underground production and development miners Truck drivers Paralegal and related occupations Financial auditors and accountants and Financial managers Specialists in human resources & Personnel and recruitment officers College and other vocational instructors Visiting homemakers, housekeepers and related occupations Accommodation service managers Senior government managers and officials Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates Social workers Police officers Restaurant and food service managers Natural and applied science policy researchers, consultants and program officers Canadian Occupational Projection System Yukon College, Health Education Needs Assessment Yukon Department of Education s Workforce Profile 2012 Public Service Commission Mining Industry Human Resources 7 P a g e

8 Featured Industry: Mining Mining is a growing priority for Yukon government and Yukon College. In response to the demand expressed by labour market stakeholders and recognizing the work being done on the Centre for Northern Innovation in Mining, the Department of Education and Economic Development contracted the Mining Industry Human Resources Council in partnership with Derome and Associates to complete a Hiring Requirements and Available Talent Forecasts report for Yukon s mining industry. For the first time a detailed estimation of the mining labour workforce is available for Yukon. - MiHR The report identifies the hiring needs of the extraction, exploration, and service sectors of the mining industry. In addition to forecasting the hiring needs for Yukon s industry over the next 10 years, the research also estimates the talent that will become available in that time and provides a gap analysis for 42 occupations. Below are the 15 occupations with the largest projected gaps. NOC-S J121 H611 I141 I131 J311 J011 H411 C012 H212 I121 C013 B541 H412 H121 C163 Occupation Machine Operators, mineral and metal processing Heavy equipment operators (except crane) Underground mine service and support workers Underground production and development miners Labourers in mineral and metal processing Supervisors, mineral and metal processing Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics (except textile) Chemists and laboratory technicians Industrial electricians Supervisors, mining and quarrying Geologists, geochemists and geophysicists Administrative clerks Heavy duty equipment mechanics Carpenters Inspectors in public and environmental health and occupational health and safety The complete Hiring Requirements and Available Talent Forecasts Report can be found on the Department of Education s website under publications: 8 P a g e

9 Phase 3 Phase 2 Phase 1 Appendix A Is there a labour market gap forecasted? What is the size of the gap? Research Questions What is the projected growth rate? Do demand and supply analysis suggest future gaps? How long is demand expected to exceed supply? What is the cause of the gap? Can the gap be filled through formal education or training? Is there a gap in available education and training to meet future labour market needs? Are resources/ interested partners available to address the training need locally? Is there adequate demand for multiple cohorts to offset design and delivery costs? Is the area of study of interest to potential students? Is there potential for job security? What is the average wage? Is there opportunity for advancement? Are certain areas experiencing reoccurring labour shortages? Is the reoccurrence caused by a real shortage of supply or a recruitment and retention issue? Can the occupations facing shortages be substituted? Is the role difficult to automate/outsource/offshore? Is capital-labour substitution or labour-labour substitution an option? Is it difficult for immigrant labour to fill gap? Is the industry expected to experience technological advancements or changes to qualifications? Do industry/occupational changes require formal training to upgrade skills or (re)certify? What is the impact and risk to employers if they cannot fill vacancies? Will the impact to businesses be high if they experience quality or capacity shortfalls? Does the gap impact a key role in the business process? What is the length of the education/training cycle? Geographically, where are gaps forecasted? Whitehorse/Communities? 9 P a g e

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