The solar power market development in Thailand

Transcription

1 The solar power market development in Thailand SCHOOL OF RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGY 20 year of grid connected PV systems: Lessons learnt from Germany why quality matters hotel, Bangkok June 5, 2012 Assistant Prof. Nipon Ketjoy Dr.-Ing. (Renewable Energy Technology) Deputy Director for Research Affairs Head of Photovoltaic System & Standard Testing Research Division, Thailand

2 CONTENTS THAILAND RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY POTENTIAL OF SOLAR ENERGY HISTORY OF RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY CURRENT STATUS OF PV INSTALLATION SHARE OF INTERNATIONAL PROJECTS CURRENT STATUS OF FIT MONITOR & EVALUATE THE PERFORMANCE OF PROJECTS

3 THAILAND RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY Energy targets Replace fossil energy (%) Alternative energy power capacity (MW) Thermal capacity (ktoe) Bio-fuel (ML/day) Replace oil (%) Economic targets Reduce oil import value Investment of private sector Environment targets CO 2 emission reduction Carbon credit value Previous plan (REDP 15 Year) 12% (20% include NGV) 5,604 7, % 460,000 Mbaht/year 382,240 Mbaht/year 42 Mton/year in ,000 Mbaht/year Current plan (AEDP 10 Year) 25% (not include NGV) 9,184 9, % 574,000 Mbaht 442,000 Mbaht 76 Mton/year in ,000 Mbaht Source: Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency (DEDE), Ministry of Energy

4 THAILAND RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY Low carbon society Research and projects budget support Alternative Energy Development Plan AEDP Private sector investment 25% of alternative energy share in final energy consumption by 2021 Solar + Wind 3,200 MW Small hydro + Pico hydro 324 MW Bio energy Biomass Biogas MSW 4,900 MW 600 MW 160 MW Bio fuel Ethanol 9 ML/day Bio-diesel5.97 ML/day New fuel replace diesel 25 ML/day Replace oil 44% Source: Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency (DEDE), Ministry of Energy 4

5 POTENTIAL OF SOLAR ENERGY History of Solar Radiation Data in Thailand: Solar Radiation Map: by DEDE Yearly average of daily global solar radiation (kwh/m 2.day) Produced from Satellite Image data collected from 1993 to 1998 Solar Radiation Data Base: by DEDE Yearly average of hourly global solar radiation (kwh/m 2.hour) Produced from Satellite Image data collected from 1995 to 2002 Solar Radiation Monitoring Station: by DEDE Monthly average of daily global solar radiation (kwh/m 2.day) on horizontal surface measuring station by Pyranometer Kipp & Zonen model CM11 from 2002 to currently (37 station) Source: Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency (DEDE), Ministry of Energy

6 POTENTIAL OF SOLAR ENERGY Thailand has relatively high potential of solar energy Monthly distribution of solar radiation intensity in Thailand influenced by Northeast Monsoon & Southwest Monsoon. Most of country receives the maximum solar radiation during April & May with ranging kwh/m 2.day. The areas with maximum solar radiation are at Northeastern part and some areas of central region (around 14.3% of the country). 50% of total areas receives annual average solar radiation of kwh/m 2.day which are considered relative high. High radiation location High radiation location % of areas Solar radiation (MJ/m 2.day) Comparative solar radiation intensity Annual average of total daily solar radiation of Thailand is 18.2 MJ/m 2.day (5.06 kwh/m 2.day). The figure present that Thailand is one of high potential of solar energy (3.6 MJ/m 2 =1 kwh/m 2 ). Source: Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency (DEDE), Ministry of Energy

7 POTENTIAL OF SOLAR ENERGY Solar radiation at Chiang Mai from 2002 to 2010 Source: Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency (DEDE), Ministry of Energy

8 POTENTIAL OF SOLAR ENERGY Monthly average daily global solar radiation at Chiang Mai Source: Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency (DEDE), Ministry of Energy

9 POTENTIAL OF SOLAR ENERGY Electricity Unit Current capacity Targets in Wind MW , Solar MW 150 2, Hydro MW , Biomass power MW 1,751 3, Biogas power MW MSW MW New power energy MW - 3 Thermal 8. Solar ktoe Biomass ktoe 3, , Biogas ktoe , MSW ktoe Bio-fuel 12. Ethanol ML/Day Bio-diesel ML/Day New fuel replace diesel ML/Day Source: Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency (DEDE), Ministry of Energy

10 HISTORY OF RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY 1992 Established National Energy Policy Committee in B.E.2535 (1992) 2001 Established Bureau of Energy in 2nd November B.E.2544 (2001) 2002 Established Ministry of Energy in 9th January B.E.2545 (2002) 0.5% NRE = New & Renewable Energy 2003 Energy Strategy for Competitiveness (28th September 2003) Target 0.5% NRE to 8% NRE in % electricity from RE in 2011 (1840 MW) - RPS 4%, subsidy etc st Adder program (4th December 2006) Solar 8 Baht/kWh 2008 Renewable Energy Development Plan : REDP % of altenative energy share in final energy consumption in MW from Solar 2010 Stop Solar PPA license (June 2010) Announced 6.5 Baht/kWh Adder for Solar (November 2010) 2012 Alternative Energy Development Plan: AEDP % of alternative energy share in final energy consumption in MW from Solar Source: Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency (DEDE), Ministry of Energy

11 CURRENT STATUS OF PV INSTALLATION Installation (kwp) 200, , , , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 Established Ministry of Energy (2002) Off-gird 1st Adder program 8 Baht/kWh for Solar On-Grid Currently MW ongoing On-Grid projects (1300 market available), FIT program? 1st Large scale PV plant by BSP 20, Stop Solar PPA license Source: DEDE, PEA

12 CURRENT STATUS OF PV INSTALLATION PPA approve 2,046 MW VSPP (Thermal) 1,350 MW VSPP (PV) 600 MW SPP (PV) 90 MW Adder PPA apply 1,589 MW VSPP (Thermal) 35 MW VSPP (PV) 1,194 MW SPP (PV) 360 MW FIT Available 1,000+ MW PV rooftop PV farm 0.5 1MW Expected to COD 1,000+ MW Source: DEDE, PEA

13 SHARE OF INTERNATIONAL PROJECTS NED Sun Edison BSP Solar Power Gunkul Bangchak Yanhee Domestic 70% International 30% Estimation % sharing of international vs domestic by projects number Source: estimation from PEA data

14 SHARE OF INTERNATIONAL PROJECTS Europe & US 3% Other (Thailand) 13% China 50% Japan 34% Estimation % sharing of PV modules supply by country Source: estimation from existing projects

15 SHARE OF INTERNATIONAL PROJECTS Thin film c-si 40% 60% Estimation % sharing of PV modules technology by capacity Source: estimation from existing projects

16 SHARE OF INTERNATIONAL PROJECTS Cost (US$/Wp) st Adder program 8 Baht/kWh for Solar 1st Large scale PV plant by BSP Stop Solar PPA license Projects cost development (not include land cost), cost reduction in Thailand mainly influent by external effect driving Source: Estimate from DEDE, PEA, EGAT

17 CURRENT STATUS OF FIT Not official announced 5.94 Baht/kWh propose from EPPO with assumption as follow: Investment cost for 1 MW 70 MB IRR of equity 10 % D/E ratio 3:2 Debt Interest rate) 7.25 (MLR) Debt period 10 year Project period 20 year Income tax rate 30% Tax holiday duration 8 year (BOI) Inflation rate 2.5% Plant Factor 17% Project capacity MW???? Source: Managing Committee on Power Generation from Renewable Energy Promotion, EPPO

18 CURRENT STATUS OF FIT Not acceptable from private sector with 5.94 Baht/kWh due to difference assumptions and understanding Unclear enough of FIT for solar (such as not mention PV or Solar thermal power, only single power rate range etc )

19 MONITOR & EVALUATE THE PERFORMANCE OF PROJECTS PV power pant quality class in Thailand (% by projects) Class A Class B Class C Class A: High quality of design, components, installation work 30% 30% Class B: Medium quality of design, components, installation work 40% Class C: To low investment cost, low quality of design, components, installation work Source: personal assumption and estimation

20 MONITOR & EVALUATE THE PERFORMANCE OF PROJECTS Not much people understand in monitor & evaluation the performance of PV power plant projects. Many technical problems hidden in many PV power plants due to improper design, installation including components selection (consider only low investment cost). Lack of monitor & evaluation of projects quality from government organization. Only grid-code (interconnection regulation) from PEA/MEA/EGAT that the projects have to be compile.

21 We design We build We inspect We take care We test We are Solar Man Thank you - Khob Khun Krub

22 OUR ACTIVITY ON PV SYSTEM WORK