Americas Conference Call. Philippe Dréano Chairman & CEO

Transcription

1 Americas Conference Call Philippe Dréano Chairman & CEO December 10, 2013

2 USA 2

3 Despite some economic turbulence, overall positive trend and improving consumer sentiment USA Consumer sentiment still improving, reaching highest level in August as unemployment continues to decline and GDP growth remains positive Consumer Sentiment Index Unemployment Rate 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 9.5% 8.9% 7.9% 7.3% % Chg in GDP Qtr vs. PY Jan 07 Oct 07 Oct 08 Oct 09 Oct 10 Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct % Oct 10 Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct 13 Q3 08 Q3 09 Q3 10 Q3 11 Q3 12 Q3 13 The Federal Reserve forecasts unemployment to stay below 7% in 2014 while economic growth will rise to ~3% Source: U.Mich/Reuters; US Bureau of Labor Statistics; US Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve September forecast 3

4 Alcoholic beverage sales increasing faster than the CPG average, with Wine & Spirits outpacing Beer USA Nielsen Value Growth 52 weeks through 11/09/ % 3.5% 2.7% CPG Growth 52 weeks (+2.1%) 2 (All 120 Measured CPG Categories) Beer Wine Spirits Source: 1 Nielsen: TUS XAOC+ Liquor, L52Wks Ending 11/09/13; Spirits Excludes WA State; Beer Includes FMB/Cider 2 Nielsen: TUS XAOC, L52Wks Ending 7/20/13 4

5 Spirits value growing ahead of volume in Off Premise with recent slowdown in On Premise USA Positive price mix in Off Premise Recent softness in On Premise 52 weeks 13 weeks On Premise Trends 5.1% 6.2% 3.1% Restaurant Sciences (Value) 2.8% 3.5% 3.6% 2.1% 3.0% 2.9% 3.3% 3.1% 0.4% -0.1% Nielsen NABCA -0.4% Nielsen NABCA -2.9% -3.3% Total Spirits PR USA Price Mix Volume Growth Value Growth 6 months 3 months Source: Nielsen: TUS XAOC+Liquor-WASH 52 weeks through 11/09/13 NABCA: Control States through Oct (Excluding IA, MS, WV, WY for value/volume comparison; Excluding IA, MS, WV, OR, MT in On Premise volume sales) Restaurant Sciences: 3 Months and 6 Months Ending October 2013 in value 5

6 NABCA Nielsen PR USA outperforming its main competitor both in value and volume USA PR USA Main Competitor Value Growth +2.2 % > +1.7 % Volume Growth -1.2% > -3.0% Value Growth +2.9 % > +1.0 % Volume Growth -1.4% > -1.6% Source: Nielsen: TUS XAOC+Liquor -WASH 52 weeks through 11/09/13 NABCA: Control States Excluding IA, MS, WV, WY (value not available for these states) R12 through Oct

7 NABCA Nielsen Key brands growing in value with positive price/mix USA Value Growth 52 weeks +20.0% +3.5% +12.0% +4.6% +2.4% +2.6% Price Mix +0.8% -1.4% Absolut Jameson +0.7% Chivas Regal The Glenlivet -0.6% Malibu +19.3% +3.4% +11.7% +4.7% +3.5% +1.7% +1.9% +0.1% Price Mix -0.8% Absolut Jameson Chivas Regal The Glenlivet +1.3% Malibu Source: Nielsen: TUS XAOC+Liquor -WASH 52 weeks through 11/09/13 NABCA: Control States Excluding IA, MS, WV, WY (value not available for these states) R12 through Oct

8 Strong innovation initiatives round out PRUSA s portfolio USA ABSOLUT Elyx Single Estate Handcrafted Vodka Super Premium Vodka 8

9 Strong innovation initiatives round out PRUSA s portfolio USA J.P. Wiser s Olmeca Altos Avión North American Whisky Premium Tequila Ultra Premium Tequila 9

10 Brazil 10

11 Brazil presenting structural opportunities Brazil 7th largest economy in the world 1 7th largest consumer market in the world 2 Strong emergence of a middle class 3 Shift from D/E to C class US 16 China 8 US 10 Japan 3 A B >R$6,3 2 R$4,9 6,3 Japan 6 Germany 2 Germany 3 France 3 China 2 Italy 2 50% 57% 64% C R$1,1 4,9 UK 2 UK 1 Brazil 2 Russia 2 Italy 2 Brazil 1 Spain 1 France 1 38% 28% 19% DE <R$1, E GDP ($US trillions) Household expenditure (US$ trillions) Monthly income (R$ k) Source: 1 International Monetary Fund data United Nations Statistics DivisionL 3 CA ; in early USD = 1.9R$. Data not converted to USD to minimize R$ appreciation effect in the last years. Constant 2009 values. 11

12 Despite a recent slowdown, most indicators remain positive Brazil Unemployment staying very low After a period of growth, GDP slowdown in the past 2 years, but rebound expected in % Real Growth of GDP Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Brazil unemployment rate, metropolitan areas (%) with consumer confidence remaining high Demographic bonus driving consumption Consumer confidence Index Total population (M) Dependency ratio 1 (line) Historical average Mar- 08 Mar- 09 Mar- 10 Mar- 11 Mar- 12 Mar- 13 Source: IBGE / FGV 1 inactive population (0-15 yrs and 65+ yrs) / active population (15-65 yrs) (18-65 yrs age) (0-18 yrs age) (65+ yrs age)

13 Absolut accelerating growth through premiumization and innovation Brazil Innovative activation Digital engagement Brand flagship ABSOLUT Inn (Permanent and proprietary in São Paulo) MAT +9% +21% +30% YTD +10% +28% +38% Last Period +16% +30% +46% Premiumization Price Mix Volumes Value Source: Nielsen On+Off Trade, Aug-Sep

14 Return to double digit growth for Chivas and Ballantine s Brazil MAT -6% -1% +5% YTD +11% +19% +30% Last Period +24% +22% +46% Price Mix Volumes Value MAT -3% +6% +3% YTD +10% +8% +18% Last Period +10% +5% +15% Price Mix Volumes Value Source: Nielsen On+Off Trade, Aug-Sep

15 Solid value growth of Local Brands Brazil Price Mix Volumes Value MAT -5% +13% +8% -3% +5% +2% -7% +12% +5% YTD -4% +11% +7% -4% +5% +9% -9% +12% +3% Last Period 0% +9% +9% -3% +10% +13% -7% +9% +2% Source: Nielsen On+Off Trade, Aug-Sep

16 Other markets 16

17 Overall positive performance Canada Market share gains (+1% vs. LY to 20%) with positive price/mix (+2%) 2 Mexico Single-digit decrease in a slowing market (Q1) Colombia Growing market with excellent depletions trend (vol. +13%) 3 Travel Retail Recent commercial difficulties Venezuela Peru Set up of local affiliate (Net Sales +37%) 3 On-going adaptation to local constraints Source: ¹ Nielsen MAT AS 2013 ² OTC, October 2013, R6 3 Pernod Ricard, YTD June FY13 Chile Gained leadership in off-trade (value SoM 19%) 1 Argentina Premiumization of local brands 17

18 Digital Acceleration 18

19 Leading the change in Digital Our ambition: place our consumers in the center of our business model Services Service driven go beyond the sell and be part of the consumer s daily life Product omnipresence from first consideration to ultimate enjoyment Content Content relevance provide the right content, at the right time, to the right person Products 19

20 Expected Benefits Accelerating the Digital transformation of our business will enable us to: Engage our consumers to an unprecedented level, leveraging all touch-points in real time Deepen insights and consumer knowledge allowing us to make consumer-centric decisions Convert our key consumers into brand advocates Optimize cost per contact in media spending by leveraging constant data capture PR Americas to develop a competitive edge across markets 20

21 Conclusion 21

22 Conclusion Pernod Ricard Americas is delivering key objectives Continuous positive price/mix delivering superior value growth Exciting new products rolled out in categories complementing the portfolio* *North American Whisky, Premium & Ultra Premium Tequila, Super Premium Vodka Strong volume and value growth of key brands Other markets Geo-expansion and RTM reinforcements yielding profitable results (Colombia, Peru, Chile ) Digital transformation Accelerating across markets to bring consumers engagement to the next level 22