Fossil Fuels and Climate Change Mitigation with Examples from Energy Intensive Industries

Transcription

1 CCS in Process Industries - State-of- the-art and Future Opportunities, Lisbon, Portugal, March 10-11, 2015 Fossil Fuels and Climate Change Mitigation with Examples from Energy Intensive Industries Filip Johnsson Stefanía Ósk Garðarsdóttir, Fredrik Normann, Klas Andersson, Jan Kjärstad, Johan Rootzén Chalmers University of Technology Department of Energy and Environment, Division of Energy Technology Sweden filip.johnsson@chalmers.se

2 Fossil Fuel and Cement Emissions Global fossil fuel and cement emissions: 9.7 ± 0.5 GtC in 2012, 58% over 1990 Projection for 2013 : 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC, 61% over 1990 Uncertainty is ±5% for one standard deviation (IPCC likely range) With leap year adjustment: 2012 growth rate is 1.9% and 2013 is 2.4% Source: Le Quéré et al 2013; CDIAC Data; Global Carbon Project 2013

3 Why CCS?

4 Coal, oil and gas 155 GtC Carbon budget for a 2 C target 1 1 Restricting to 25% probability for warming >2 C Estimate based on Meinshausen M. (2009), Letters to Nature Vol 458, April 30, 2009 and Friedlingstein et al. (2014), Nature Geoscience, DOI: /NGEO2248

5 Coal, oil and gas 155 GtC Carbon budget for a 2 C target GtC Fossil reserves 1 Restricting to 25% probability for warming >2 C Estimate based on Meinshausen M. (2009), Letters to Nature Vol 458, April 30, 2009 and Friedlingstein et al. (2014), Nature Geoscience, DOI: /NGEO2248

6 Coal, oil and gas 155 GtC Carbon budget for a 2 C target GtC Fossil reserves Fossil reserves + 30% of resource base 4600 GtC 1 Restricting to 25% probability for warming >2 C Estimate based on Meinshausen M. (2009), Letters to Nature Vol 458, April 30, 2009 and Friedlingstein et al. (2014), Nature Geoscience, DOI: /NGEO2248

7 Coal, oil and gas 155 GtC Carbon budget for a 2 C target GtC Fossil reserves Fossil reserves + 30% of resource base 4600 GtC 328 GtC Remaining carbon budget for a 2 C target 390 GtC Past emissions (since 1870) 1 Restricting to 25% probability for warming >2 C Estimate based on Meinshausen M. (2009), Letters to Nature Vol 458, April 30, 2009 and Friedlingstein et al. (2014), Nature Geoscience, DOI: /NGEO2248

8 The Fossil Fuel Curse Countries rich in domestic fossil fuels: only moderate or no increase in primary energy from RES, significant increases in primary energy consumption from fossil fuels. The US is an exception (large fossil fuel resources reduced carbon intensity) The fossil-fuel curse : countries with large domestic fossil fuel resources cannot be expected to allow these assets to remain unexploited Tremendous threat to climate change mitigation leaving only two choices for fossil rich economies leave the fossil fuels in the ground or apply CCS stranded assets or ramp up an extensive CCS infrastructure Johnsson, F., Kjärstad, J. (2013) The geopolitics of renewable energy and abundance of fossil fuels, SDEWES, September 22-27, Dubrovnik, Croatia 2013

9 MtCO 2 /year Key energy intensive industries EU27 Reduction potential with existing BAT technologies (i.e. without CCS) vs emission cap Cement Iron and steel Refineries Industry - BAU Industry - Cap Existing BAT technologies sufficient to meet EU year 2020 targets, but not the 2050 targets CCS is required Rootzén, J., Johnsson, F. (2013) Energy Policy 59,

10 MtCO 2 /yr Key energy intensive industries in the Nordic countries Reduced activity level in refineries Biomass in iron and steel and cement industries Reduced fraction of clinker in cement BAT replacing existing process technology Without CCS Total potential -35% reduction in Year 2050 relative to Year 2010 Rootzén, J., Johnsson, F. (2015) Energy 80,

11 Fuel shift? One month fuel consumption for SSABs blast furnaces Timber storage at Byholma from the tree fell due to the Gudrun storm Kim Kärsrud 11

12 MtCO 2 /år Key energy intensive industries in the Nordic countries CCS With CCS Total potential -85% reductions in Year 2050 relative Year 2010 Rootzén, J., Johnsson, F. (2015) Energy 80,

13 MtCO 2 /år Key energy intensive industries in the Nordic countries Significant costs due to increased energy use 15 CCS Large volumes of CO 2 to handle With CCS Total potential -85% reductions in Year 2050 relative Year 2010 Rootzén, J., Johnsson, F. (2015) Energy 80,

14 Examples from selected process industries

15 Four industrial cases Oil refinery: Hydrogen production Preem refinery (SE) Pulp and paper: Recovery Boiler SCA (SE) Power plant: Nordjyllandsverket (DK) Biogenic emissions Aluminum plant: Hydro (NO)

16 Difference in concentration and amount of CO 2 CO 2 : 1% 20% 40%

17 Capture rate and amount of CO 2 captured Gardarsdottir, S. O., Normann, F., Andersson, K., Johnsson, F. (2014) Energy Procedia 63,

18 Cost calculations (NH 3 )

19 Cost calculations (NH 3 ) Jilvero et al.,. (2014) Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 31, 87 95

20 Three cases for the development of a pulp mill Scenario Recovery system Additional product Capture method RB Recovery boiler n/a Post-combustion MEA Capture technology BLGCC BLGMF Black liquor gasification Black liquor gasification Electricity Pre-combustion Selexol DME Pre-combustion Rectisol RB Recovery boiler BLGCC Black liquor gasification Electricity BLGMF Black liquor gasification Motor Fuel Hedström, J (2014) MSc Thesis Chalmers

21 Three cases - Results Utility [kj/kg CO 2 captured] RB BLGCC BLGMF Steam Cooling water Electricity Net reduction potential [ktco 2 /year] Specific CO 2 capture cost [ /tco 2 ] Note: 85% capture rate and a cooling water temperature of 10 degrees ºC. Steam supplied to the capture processes is supplied by combustion of solid wood fuel in a biomass boiler. Note: BECCS; What is stored should be credited in the same way as for fossil capture (= income since no cost for allowances without capture) (only small amounts of fossil fuels in the process) Hedström, J (2014) MSc Thesis Chalmers

22 Challenges Obviously several challenges such as public acceptance, legal issues etc. Yet, there are also some other main challenges.

23 Long lead times in development Example: Oxyfuel combustion for CO 2 capture Research and development Jänschwalde 250 MW demonstration plant Commercial plant Chalmers 100kW research plant Vattenfall 30MW pilot plant

24 Bastor 2: Specific cost for CO 2 transportation Pipeline break-even volume and associated cost for the ten largest sources located along the coast (red circles), Spine only, overall conclusion; Difficult to envision systems with sufficient volumes so that pipeline becomes least costly transport option Kjärstad, J.. Nilsson, P-A., (2014) CCS in the Baltic Sea region Bastor 2, Elforsk Report 25333

25 Bastor 2: Potential pipeline system Pipeline break volume: 4 Mtpa (see slide 7) Specific system cost ranging from 12.5 to 19.0 per ton depending on volume and injectivity Dalder Kjärstad, J.. Nilsson, P-A., (2014) CCS in the Baltic Sea region Bastor 2, Elforsk Report 25333

26 NORDICCS: Potential pipeline system Cost declines rapidly as volume increases Note: Feeders & Distribution NOT included Kjärstad, J. et al., (2013) Recommendations on CO 2 transport solutions, NORDICCS report (D20)

27 Challenge Cost for CCS chain >> EU-ETS allowance prices efficient policy measures or other driving force for reduced emissions must be developed (e.g. procurement further down product value chain)

28 Look further down the value chain - example cement industry C1: a new state-of-the-art kiln system C2: kiln system equipped for postcombustion capture of CO 2 using chemical absorption with MEA C3: kiln system adapted for full oxycombustion and CO 2 capture Rootzén, J., Johnsson, F. (2015) Work in-progress

29 In summary The main argument for CCS: There is too much fossil fuels (especially coal) in a climate change context a fossil fuel curse Failure of CCS: global community must agree to almost immediately to start phasing out the use of fossil fuels highly unlikely! Success of CCS fossil fuel-dependent economies will find it easier to comply with stringent greenhouse GHG reduction targets CCS is required in order for several energy intensive process industries to reach Year 2050 targets (BAT and fuel shift not sufficient) Partial capture concentration and amount of CO 2 depend on process Biogenic emission sources offer carbon negatives (BECCS) Challenge to establish transportation and storage infrastructure Challenge Cost for CCS chain >> EU-ETS allowance prices efficient policy measures or other driving force for reduced emissions must be developed (e.g. procurement further down product value chain)

30 Extras

31 CO 2 capture from industrial sources Main assumptions: Lean solvent loading 0.25 molco 2 /mol solvent, 90% capture rate, constant absorber residence time Gardarsdottir, S. O., Normann, F., Andersson, K., Johnsson, F. (2015) Ind. Eng. Chem Res. 54,

32 EU27+ Norway and Switzerland two scenarios CO 2 : 93% reduction to 2050 rel 1990 CO 2 : 99% reduction to 2050 rel 1990