Water and Climate Change in Central Asia

Transcription

1 Water and Climate Change in Central Asia Filippo Menga Ph.D. Candidate - University of Cagliari 14th European Seminar on Geography of Water Cagliari, 28 June 2011

2 An overview of the region Who rules the hearthland (which included Central Asia) commands the World-Island (Eurasian continent). Who rules the World-Island commands the world. Sir Halford John Mackinder in Central Asia 2

3 The breakup of USSR in 1991 marked the birth of 5 newly independent states in Central Asia: Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan in Central Asia 3

4 in Central Asia 4

5 Main characteristics of the new states in 1991 None of them really wanted or sought independence Authoritarian regimes (except in Kyrgyzstan) Weak and non-organized public administrations Ethnic rivalries in and between countries Frequent border problems (especially in the Ferghana Valley) Competing rather than complementary economies in Central Asia 5

6 Distribution of water resources in Central Asia 6

7 The Aral Sea Basin The Basin covers a vast area (nearly 1.8 million km2 with a population of around 50 million) that includes the territory of the five Central Asian republics plus Afghanistan and Iran. It is formed by two great Asian rivers: The Amu-Darya, The most important river in the basin, which originates among the glaciers and snowfields of the Pamir mountains of Tagikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Afghanistan (average annual flow: 78 km3 per year) Countries crossed: Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan The Syr-Darya Which flows from the Tyan Shan mountains, located to the north of the Pamirs in Kyrgyzstan (average annual flow: 37 km3 per year) Countries crossed: Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan in Central Asia 7

8 Upstream and Downstream countries 80% of the water flows from upstream rivers in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, which occupy only 20% of the territory of the basin Most of it is used for irrigation in the downstream areas of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, where over 83% of the irrigated land of the region is concentrated in Central Asia 8

9 in Central Asia 9

10 Distribution of water resources Average water flow, km3 per year (source: The Eurasian Development Bank, 2008) in Central Asia 10

11 Incompatible interests Upstream countries, that have scarce resources of Oil & Gas and that are by far the poorest of the region, are mostly interested in exploiting rivers for electricity production Oil & Gas rich downstream countries are hugely dependent on water resources for intensive irrigation Non-vegetation period (fall-winter) Vegetation period (spring-summer) in Central Asia 11

12 Therefore During the non-vegetation period (fall-winter): Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan release large volumes of water downstream when they are not needed to produce hydro-electric power (especially from Toktogul reservoir), causing flooding and water logging of large areas of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan During the vegetation period (spring-summer): Downstream countries experience droughts in summer with severe consequences for agriculture and other related sectors such as food, light industry, etc. Agriculture s contribution to GDP, %,(source: The Eurasian Development Bank, 2008) in Central Asia 12

13 Impact of Climate Change Changes in climate over the 20th Century show: An increase in mean annual air temperature of 1-2 C (IPCC, 2008) Runoff has increased in rivers feeding Lake Balkhash, as a result of degradation of mountain glaciers The glaciers of Tajikistan have decreased by 20-30% on average; in Afghanistan the decrease is as much as 50-70% On a whole, during the period the glaciers in the Aral Sea Basin lost 20% of their ice cover in Central Asia 13

14 Future Scenarios (2050) An increase of extreme weather events such as high intensity precipitations and prolonged droughts An increase in annual air temperature of 1-7 C compared to the average The glaciated area will shrink by 20% and ice reserves will decrease by 25% The long term effect on the Tajikistan s rivers runoff is expected to decrease by 5-15% The agriculture sector will be facing changed hydrological regimes, with probably more runoff in the winter months and drier summer periods The soil texture and moisture will be altered and crop yields will be more difficult to sustain Food production will show a 30% decrease in crop yields by the end of 21st century in Central Asia 14

15 Possible solutions Increase the storage capacity to cope with the inter-annual variations as well as the predicted increase of floods and droughts Early warning systems to mitigate the effects of mudflows or floods Modernize the irrigation system and increase the effectiveness of water in agriculture Reach an international agreement on water use in Central Asia that looks into: how to deal with changes in the common resource how conflict can be prevented by revisiting agreements that may become irrelevant due to climatic changes in Central Asia 15

16 Thank you! Instead of being at the head of people, be at the head of water (Эл баши болгуча суу баши бол, Kyrgyz proverb)