Climate change and impacts on hydrometeorological processes, agro-climatic and water resources

Transcription

1 Climate change and impacts on hydrometeorological processes, agro-climatic and water resources Prof. V.Е.Chub Minister, General Director of the Centre of Hydrometeorological Service at the Cabinet of Ministers of Republic of Uzbekistan (UZHYDROMET), Permanent Representative with WMO in Uzbekistan, National Focal Point on Climate Change in Uzbekistan 1

2 Content Principle indicators of climate change in Central Asia Climatic scenarios Water resources Extreme low water periods Aral crisis Agriculture Consequences of climate change Efficient planning and management 2

3 Principle indicators on climate change in Central Asia Prolongation of the dry hot period, Increase of number of days with heavy precipitation and high precipitation variability, Degradation of glaciations and reduction of snow reserves in mountains, Increase of frequency of the extreme phenomena, Increase of the mudflow risk, Increase of evaporation on the plain and foothill territories, Increase of frequency of the drought periods and of the extreme low-water periods 3

4 Principle indicators on climate change in Central Asia Reduction of snow reserves and degradation of glaciers Main sources of alimentation of the mountain rivers are: melting of seasonal snow cover; reserves of glaciers for long term period. Its are very sensitive to the climate changes parameters 70 Ugam - Hodjikent, snow supply Melt Rain Glacial W, mln. m high water medium water low water Reduction of snow supplies is identified in the mountain river basins; Glaciers continue to reduce with a rate about 0,2% - 1% per year. 4

5 Principle indicators on climate change in Central Asia The changes of the trend of the high and low air temperature values Since the beginning of 1950s the mean rate of warming on the territory of Uzbekistan is 0.29 С for ten years, which is more than twice higher of the warming rate in average all over the world. 0.29ºC/10 years from 1950 According to the data of observations carried out in the Aral region, the number of days with air temperature higher than 40 С increased twice. While over the rest territory of Uzbekistan it increased 1.5 times in average. 5

6 Principle indicators on climate change in Central Asia Increasing of extremely weather events Decrease of the number of days with the low temperatures is also a result of climate change. Such trend is recorded over the whole territory of the republic despite the abnormally cold winter of which is the consequence of the natural variability of the regional climate T <-15 T <-20 The number of days with the temperature lower than - 15 С and 20 С, (Tashkent Station)

7 Principle indicators on climate change in Central Asia Intensification of precipitation variability and increase of number of days with heavy precipitation Изменение годовых сумм осадков по Узбекистану Intensification of precipitation variability and certain increase of precipitation are observed; The number of days with heavy precipitation is increases. проценты от нормы Probably in future the amount of precipitation on the plains of Uzbekistan can increase to 5-15%. Number Число of days суток Ташкент Numbers of days with precipitation more 15 mm in the all day, Tashkent Station

8 Principle indicators on climate change in Central Asia Changes of numbers of danger events- mudflow and avalanche 12% of Uzbekistan territory (foothill and mountain areas) are mudflow and avalanche prone; 468 water courses in Uzbekistan are mudflow prone; the intensive rain is the reason of 80% cases of the mudflows and avalanches. due climate change up to the increase of the mudflows frequency to 17-19% is expected probability of avalanching is expected to decrease about 1,2-1,3 times up to 2030 and

9 Climatic scenarios C Данные Data of наблюдений observations B2 A2 A1B B The results of six models were averaged for the reduction of uncertainty of the regional scenarios (base norm) (базовая норма) The difference between scenarios within А and В groups up to 2050 turned to be less than the natural variability of the regional climatic characteristics in Uzbekistan For the assessment of vulnerability two scenarios: А2 and В2 were used (IPCC) 9

10 Climatic scenarios The expected changes of the air temperature values for Uzbekistan in accordance with А2 and В2 scenarios will be as follows: А2 В about 1, ,6-1, about 2,0-2,6 2,3-2, about 3,9-4,5 3,2-3,6 10

11 The expected changes of precipitation values on the territory of the region 120% 115 A1В A2 B1 B % Tashkent TAШKEHT AHДИЖAH Andijan ПCKEM Pskem Chimbay ЧИМБАЙ Tamdy ТАМДЫ ГУЗAP Guzar Up to 2030 the changes of the annual precipitation totals calculated by the scenarios are in the range of % (in relation to the base norm) for the whole range of scenarios for the green-house gases

12 Base norm 2030 Up to 2030 the following consequences of changes of the annual total precipitation are expected: The areas with precipitation total of less than 100mm will be decreased; The areas with precipitation total of mm will be increased; The precipitation (especially on the plain territory of Uzbekistan) will be increased; In mountain areas the change of precipitation will be more differential; In general, precipitation variability will be strengthened. 12

13 Water resources With this, the main factors affecting the flow in the conditions of warming are as follows: reduction of snow reserves in mountains; degradation of glaciations; increase of evaporation in the river basins; strengthening of precipitation variability; Base norm Inflow to Charvak Reservoir Inflow to Charvak Reservoir (norms) in dry years the intensification of all factors takes place. The change of the annual distribution of flow is expected (Charvak flow) 13

14 Water resources Up to 2030 no significant changes of water resources are expected, all deviations are predicted to be within the range of the natural flow variability. Up to 2050 the reduction of water resources is possible: for Amudarya river basin %; for Syrdarya river basin - 2-5%. The estimated flow volume and precipitation amount depend on the models, scenarios and methods 14

15 Extreme low water periods mm Precipitation of January - M arch Drought is very negative event which is cause substantial losses in agricultural production and difficulties in the fresh water supply for population С Temperature of January - M arch Q, m 3 /s X XI XII I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX Norm 2000 Runoff hydrograph for Akhangaran runoff in 2000 year on comparison with mean annual values The situation with the water resources is becoming crucial during the dry years when hydrological drought is observed. The assessment of the highest dry period on the base of the extreme climate scenarios shows that vegetation flow in Amudarya and Syrdarya river basins can decrease for 25-40%. Especially unfavourable conditions are expected in the middle and lower streams of Amudarya river. 15

16 Aral crisis The decrease of the water resources is the main factor which worsens the situation in the Aral Sea basin in relation to climate change. 16/09/ /09/2003 4/10/2007 The additional risks are caused by the following factors: Increase of the duration of the dry hot period; Increase of the frequency of droughts; Increase of the water demands, especially in the irrigated land use. 16

17 Aral crisis The climate change intensifies the Aral crisis which became not only the inner problem of the region but it also affects the interests of the other countries. The expected decrease of the flow of Amudarya and Syrdarya rivers due to the climate change substantiates the necessity of keeping the current regime of the river flow in the Aral Sea basin. Water volume of Aral Sea from 1961 to 2006 (estimation of Uzhydromet) In the global scale the Aral crisis is the analogue of situation which can arise in many regions of the world in the conditions of the climate change 17

18 Water resources Consequences of climate change in regional context. The following is expected in the Aral Sea basin (Amudarya and Syrdarya rivers): Continuation of degradation of glaciations and of the reduction of snow reserves in mountains. Deepening of the water resources deficit, deterioration of the water quality. Strengthening of the risk of the dangerous extreme hydro meteorological phenomena (droughts, mudflows, floods, etc.). Increase of the water demands of the increasing population and in all sectors of economy. Reduction of water resources, increase of frequency of droughts and deterioration of water quality will determine the degradation of irrigated lands (salinization, all kinds of the soil erosion and drop in their fertility). Intensification of the Aral crisis. 18

19 Agriculture Agricultural sector is the most vulnerable to the climate change as it depends on the water resources. In the current situation being observed in the irrigated land use, the climate change will inevitably cause the intensification of the water deficit which will become the limiting factor of development, especially in the agricultural production. Vulnerability factor: Climate warming results in the increase of the main consumable part of the water balance evaporation and, in the consequence of this, it will cause the increase of the quantity and norms of irrigation. Karakalpakstan: relation of agricultural production and water consumption of Amudarya river 19 19

20 Aral sea Base norm Agriculture Aral sea 2050 Tashkent Tashkent Aral sea 2030 Aral sea 2080 Tashkent Tashkent Prolongation of vegetation period In future the considerable prolongation of vegetation period is expected on the whole territory of Uzbekistan. The main risk factors for the food stuff production are the continued seasonal drought, its periodical intensification and water resources deficit. This puts certain requirements to the varieties of agricultural crops and to the irrigation regime. 20

21 Agriculture In the conditions of climate change the following is being observed: high natural dryness of the region climate is preserved; precipitation enhancement admitted by the individual scenarios is completely compensated by the increase of evaporation on the plain and foothill territories; the regime of watering and irrigation norms are changed. In average, in Uzbekistan the following changes of the irrigation norms are expected regarding the changes of climate conditions: up to in the range of 5%; up to in the range of 7-10%; up to in the range of 12-16%. The assessment models recommended by the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO) were used

22 Consequences of climate change intensive reduction of snow reserves and glaciers in the long-term perspective will deepen the deficit of water resources; decrease of flow of Amudarya and Syrdarya rivers will strengthen the Aral crisis in future; increase of evaporation due to the intensive rise of the air temperature will cause the climate dryness, the increase of water losses in irrigation zones which in its turn, will give rise to the losses of crop capacity of agricultural crops; increase of precipitation and deepening of its variability will result in the increase of the number of days with heavy precipitation; the strengthening of the mudflow activity is expected. 22

23 Efficient planning and management Introduction of the integrated management system of water resources with the involvement of all stakeholders and its coordination with the land resources management Provision of the strict accounting of distribution of water resources, of the reporting of their use and of the control of their use in all fields of economy Improvement of the system of the water accounting and management of the water quality Growing of the drought-resistant high-yield crop varieties Creation of the system of the early drought warning 23

24 Efficient planning and management Improvement of the hydro-ecological monitoring Institutional development in the area of water use and water consumption Support in the implementation of certain agricultural reforms and strengthening the role of the water users association and of the farmers association Extending the knowledge and skills in the sustainable management of the water-and-land resources Regular improvement of public awareness and information distribution in the field of the resources saving and climate change 24

25 THANK YOU FOR YOUR KIND ATTENTION 25 25