The World Bank Group Agriculture Action Plan FY10 12

Transcription

1 The World Bank Group Agriculture Action Plan FY1 12

2 Team ARD Sector Board: Providing oversight and guidance AFR: EAP: ECA: LAC: MENA: SAR: ARD: CGIAR: DEC: IFC: Martien Van Nieuwkoop Steven Schonberger Matthias Grueninger Marie Helene Collion/Yurie Tanimichi Hoberg Julian Lampietti Norman Piccioni Robert Townsend/Chris Delgado Harry Palmier Donald Larson Joyce Msuya

3 Outline What we will do FY1 12 program How we will do it What will constitute success

4 What we will do A combination of the following: 1. Reduce risk and vulnerability 2. Raise agricultural productivity 3. Link farmers to markets and strengthen value chains 4. Facilitate rural non farm income and exit 5. Enhance environmental services and sustainability

5 1. Reduce risk and vulnerability [selective areas] Safety nets, fiscal support Global Food Crisis Response ST supply 38% Social protection 13% Budget support 49% ' MT of cereal (including feed) Better manage national food imports MENA 16, 12, 8, 4, Demand Supply Imports Global actions on price volatility? Insurance innovations US Maize for Ethanol Agriculture in GSCI Grain reserves 25% of production 37% of commodity index 17% in stock Transfer risk of extreme negative outcomes

6 2. Raise agricultural productivity [selective areas] Close the yield gap Maize yields Exploit untapped irrigation potential Mozambique (n=58) Mali (n=163) Uganda (n=461) Nigeria (n=251) Ethiopia (n=31) Share of arable land with irrigation potential that's actually irrigated [developing countries] Irrigated Untapped Malawi (n=4566) Average yield in farm demonstrations Tons per hectare Average national yield Maize Improve tenure security and land markets Invest in in technology generation Output/Productivity Gains from Improved Tenure Securitiy and Land Market Efficiency (%) China Rental Certification 9 Ethiopia R&D spending as % of ag. GDP Developing countries Developed countries

7 3. Link farmers to markets & strengthen value chains Continue support for the Doha round [selective areas] Expand infrastructure (roads, ICT, ICT, energy) Estimated loss of agricultural trade with Doha Failure (%) Global agricultural exports 11.5 Developing country agricultural exports Mobile phone service reduced price volatility and waste in coastal fish markets, Kannur District India weeks Mobile phone service added Strengthen producer organizations Overcoming off farm transaction costs in higher value markets Annual growth rate of kcal/person/day (%) Cereals Sugar Oil crops Horticulture Meat Milk Increase access to to finance Enabling environm ent Demand developm ent 21% Market facilitation 29% Service provision 46%

8 4. Facilitate rural non farm income and exit [selective areas] Improve the local investment climate Territorial or or regional development Most rural businesses sell locally: Local demand & investment climate matters >7% Rate of employment growth 6% 2% % 2% Manufacturing Employment Mexico Kilometers to closest manufacturing center Upgrade skills South Asia: Average yrs of education, yr olds 8 Urban 6 Rural 4 Years 2 Men Women

9 5. Enhance environmental services & sustainability [selective areas] Manage intensive livestock systems Number of chickens per square km Thailand: Managing disease risk Distance to Bangkok, km Tap into carbon markets Experimentation to measure soil carbon sequestration Support for post Kyoto Capacity building Strengthen payment systems Im proved pas ture w ith high tree dens ity Natural pas ture w ith high tree dens ity Im proved pas ture w ith low tree dens ity Fodder banks + Poor extrem ely poor hous eholds Non poor hous eholds Natural pasture w ith low tree dens ity D egraded pasture Example: Nicaragua pilot project Annual c rops Ne t lan d u se ch a ng e (he cta res)

10 Composition of FY1 12 Program: Recent commitments Recent commitments dominated by agricultural productivity and links to to markets Composition of IDA/IBRD US$ annual commitments 26 8 Enhance environmental services/ sustainability 11% Reduce vulnerability 2% Link farmers to markets 1 Raise agricultural productivity 73%

11 Composition of FY1 12 Program: Undisbursed & New [sector detail] $9bn to to be disbursed over FY1 12 in in about 9 countries [62% of of existing commitments] Infrastructure 13% Agric market & trade Agro industry 3% Rural finance 9% Land administration 6% Forestry Animal production Agric ext & research 12% Crops Irrigation & drainage 41%

12 Composition of FY1 12 Program: Undisbursed & New [sector detail] $9bn to to be disbursed over FY1 12 in in about 9 countries [62% of of existing commitments] Areas of of emphasis for new commitments: FY1 12[?] Infrastructure 13% Agric market & trade Agro industry 3% Rural finance 9% Agric ext & research 12% Crops Investment support Productivity Extension, land, research Gender responsive Link farmers to markets Market integration business models, infrastructure, market information Reduce risk & vulnerability Land administration 6% Forestry Animal production Irrigation & drainage 41% AAA Public expenditure Managing risk Trade Extent and drivers of volatility Insurance markets Climate change

13 Level of FY1 12 Program: New commitments Target 5% increase over FY26 8 average 6 Annual average new commitments 5.36 US$ billions IFC IDA/IBRD Actual Actual Actual Target FY2 2 FY23 5 FY26 8 FY21 12 Amounts Amounts to to about about 13% 13% of of the the annual annual incremental incremental needs needs to to meet meet the the MDG MDG [as [as estimated estimated by by IFPRI] IFPRI]

14 How we will do it With quality Integrate in local processes, PRSPs, CASs Greater emphasis on local empowerment Less fragmentation, more harmonization Better organize to deliver

15 1. With quality Maintain quality: ARDSB Projects Performing Better than Bank average Percentage Actual Problem Proj. QAG Portfolio Status Indicators, end FY8 RRP Targets ARDSB Projects Other Bank Proj. at Risk Realism Pro activity Satisfactory (QEA 5 7) Satisfactory (QSA 6 7) Percentage IEG Satisfactory Outcome Ratings Fiscal Year ARDSB Other Bank

16 2. Integrate in local processes, PRSPs, CASs to build and retain the pipeline Thematic Pillar In LEN pipeline: FY1 12 Raise agricultural productivity Link farmers to markets & strengthen value chains Reduce risk vulnerability Facilitate rural non farm income & exit Enhance environmental services and sustainability Bolivia, Colombia, Peru, Paraguay, Brazil, Uruguay, Mexico, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Mali, Mozambique, Rwanda, Uganda, Zambia, Mekong, China, Lao, Papua New Guinea, Albania, Azerbaijan, Croatia, Kazakhstan, India, Pakistan, Southern Africa, Vietnam, Iraq, Philippines, Pacific Islands, Cambodia, Indonesia Egypt, Tunisia, Brazil, Argentina, Burundi, Benin, Ethiopia, Ghana, Malawi, Nigeria, China, Vietnam, Russia, Nepal, Kosovo, Sri Lanka, Philippines Djibouti, Iraq, Morocco, Syria, Ghana, Kenya, Congo, China, Vietnam, Cambodia, Pacific Islands Jamaica, Brazil, China, Afghanistan, Nigaragua, Mexico, Argentina, China, Turkey, Philippines

17 2. Integrate in local processes, PRSPs, CASs on track for FY1, but more to do for outer years FY1 12 pipeline (SAP: firm, likely & possible) IDA/IBRD Total Pipeline US$ billion IFC US$ 5.4bn target IDA/IBRD Total (less agriculture) IDA/IBRD Agriculture IDA/IBRD Agriculture Pipeline US$ bn FY1 FY11 FY12

18 3. Greater emphasis on local empowerment % of Total AKIS Funding Farmer Empowerment in AKIS Projects Farmers Influence Decisions Farmers Control Funds Participatory Approaches Example from Agricultural Knowledge and Information Systems (AKIS) projects in Africa Cost Sharing Greater farmer empowerment associated with improved project outcomes Changes in Quality of AKIS Projects 8% 7% 6% 5% 3% 2% 1% % Outcome: e % of Sustainability: Institutional Poverty: Poverty % of % of projects w ith satisfactory w ith or satisfactory highly or satisfactory highly satisfactory rating % of of projects w ith likely or highly likely rating Development ent % Impact: of projects % of wprojects ith substantial w ith substantial or high rating or high rating projects % of projects rating substantial rating or substantial high rating or high rating rating Board Date prior to 1996 (46 projects) Board Date after 1996 (21 projects)

19 4. Less fragmentation, more harmonization IDA AfDF Germany EC France United States Japan Sweden IFAD Belgium Norway Netherlands United Kingdom Canada Spain Ireland Switzerland Finland Austria Denmark Australia Luxembourg Greece Portugal New Zealand Italy Example ODA Commitments to Africa for Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishing: 26 Paris Declaration Joint financing (Swaps) Other partners (Gates, AGRA) Higher Level Task Force