Deforestation, shifting cultivation, and tree crops in Indonesia: nationwide patterns of smallholder agriculture at the forest frontier

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1 , shifting cultivation, and tree crops in Indonesia: nationwide patterns of smallholder agriculture at the forest frontier Draft May 1996 Comments welcome Kenneth M. Chomitz Charles Griffiths Environment, Infrastructure, and Agriculture Division Policy Research Department The World Bank Note: The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent. The paper should not be cited without permission of an author. Please send comments to: K. Chomitz PRDEI World Bank Washington DC fax

2 Acknowledgements We have benefitted greatly from discussions with Tom Tomich and his colleagues at ICRAF, who introduced us to jungle rubber. William Sunderlin provided useful comments. All errors are our own. This work was supported by the research project on the Social and Environmental Consequences of Growth-oriented Policies.

3 , shifting cultivation, and tree crops in Indonesia p Introduction As agriculture expands into tropical forests, what crops are in the vanguard? Crop choice at the agricultural frontier bears on the nature of the deforestation problem, on its relation with poverty, and on appropriate responses. Where deforestation is associated with the expansion of marginal, subsistence-oriented swidden farming, improved farming technologies can simultaneously fight poverty and reduce forest loss. On the other hand, where the expansion of profitable tree crops threatens the forest, policy choices are more limited and the trade-offs more complex. While there are many site-specific case studies, there is relatively little quantitative information relating deforestation and crop choice over large areas. This note uses village-level data covering all of Indonesia to analyze crop choice in areas experiencing current deforestation. The plan of the paper is as follows. First we discuss the policy relevance of cropping patterns at the forest fringe. Next we review information about agricultural conversion of forests in Indonesia. Following a discussion of data sources and quality, we then discuss some simple descriptive statistics relating cropping patterns to Indonesian deforestation. 2. Crops and deforestation: policy implications Economic incentives -- mediated by institutions such as land tenure regulations and customs -- govern the expansion of agriculture into the forest. The strength and malleability of those incentives determines what can be done to reduce deforestation, what can be done to boost farmers' incomes -- and whether the two sets of policies are compatible. Imagine a typology of crops (and other agricultural land uses) according to three dimensions: current returns to land, labor intensity, and elasticity of demand (for an entire forested region). (See table 1). Current returns to land measure the incentive to convert additional forest to cultivation. Where these returns are high, it is difficult to resist expansion of cultivation into the forest. (Hyde et al. 1993, Chomitz and Gray 1995, 1996; Tomich and van Noordwijk 1995; van Noordwijk et al. 1995; Angelsen 1995). But returns to alternative land uses will be sensitive to wages and prices, which in turn may be subject to policy manipulation. Labor intensity and the price-elasticity of demand are indicators of the sensitivity of land use to such manipulation. Using this typology, consider first consider crops which offer a low return per hectare, have low to moderate labor intensity, and are located in areas not well integrated with wider markets. Swidden cultivation of staple crops in low population density areas is the best example, and is the popular stereotype of agriculture at the forest fringe. Even if returns to the land are low in absolute terms, this form of cultivation may expand where there are no higher-value land uses and where the returns to labor are relatively high. For this scenario, a common policy suggestion is to provide these farmers with technologies to intensify production, boosting per hectare yields. If demand is inelastic, then the price of output plummets, and returns to land drop sharply. Another way of putting it is that, given relatively fixed demand for local consumption, increased yields translate into reduced area of cultivation, and thus lower pressure on the forest. (Tomich

4 , shifting cultivation, and tree crops in Indonesia p. 2 and van Noordwijk 1995, van Noordwijk et al. 1995). However, if increased yields are associated with substantially higher returns to labor, intensification may actually attract workers into subsistence agriculture. In effect, an elastic supply of migrants means that the demand for subsistence crops is elastic. Next consider a situation where food crops are being produced for a national market under very low productivity conditions -- for example, short-fallow shifting agriculture in areas of moderately high population density. Here interventions to boost farm productivity may alleviate poverty, but will again backfire from an environmental viewpoint. Because the national market can elastically absorb production from the forest fringe, enhanced farm profitability will encourage expansion to still more marginal areas. However, if production is fairly laborintensive, then returns to land may be quite sensitive to prevailing wages. Provision of alternative employment opportunities may drastically reduce the attractiveness of shifting cultivation, reducing pressures for conversion. Finally, imagine a third scenario: tree crops with high returns per hectare, possibly high returns to labor, and perfectly elastic demand from the world market. In this situation, interventions to boost farm profitability, such as introduction of higher-yielding varieties, would result in increased pressures for forest conversion. Moreover, if the returns to labor are high, introduction of alternative employment opportunities may have little impact on the incentives to expand tree crops. These three scenarios also have disparate implications for the links between macroeconomic change and deforestation. In the first scenario, farmers are relatively insulated from macroeconomic changes. In the second, changes in agricultural pricing policies, and changes which affect real wages and labor demand may have direct effects on deforestation rates. In the third, changes in world market prices, and in the exchange rate, will have corresponding impacts on incentives to expand or reduce cropped area. To sum up, appropriate policy interventions to address deforestation depend very much on the crops or land uses associated with deforestation. While much attention focuses on the case of marginal, subsistence-oriented shifting agriculture, policies tailored to this situation could have perverse effects if applied in a different context. 3. and agriculture in Indonesia Indonesia contains 10% of the world's tropical rainforests (World Bank, 1994), and these forests are disproportionately rich in biodiversity (Ministry of State for Population and Environment, 1992). Consequently conservation of Indonesia's forests is a global priority. Nevertheless, our understanding of the quantitative dimensions of deforestation in Indonesia is surprisingly poor. Estimates of deforestation range from 1.3 million ha. to 300,000 ha. per year (World Bank, 1994). Apportionment of the deforestation rate among proximate causes is even less precise. Logging is thought to cause deforestation not through clear cutting, but by facilitating entry and clearing by

5 , shifting cultivation, and tree crops in Indonesia p. 3 shifting cultivators (Barbier et al.1994) Much deforestation is associated with the settlement of official transmigration sites, and with the establishment of large plantations for palm oil or pulpwood. Much of the remainder is attributed to shifting cultivators, often presumed to be subsistence-oriented. Shifting cultivation in Indonesia, however, encompasses more than just subsistence or food crops. There are shifting cultivation systems which include both staple crops and export-oriented tree products. For instance, in some low-population density areas, coffee is grown by shifting cultivators, who abandon plots after six or seven years due to declining yields. (Smith and Bouvier, 1993). A shifting cultivation system of particular interest is jungle rubber. (Gouyon et al. 1993, Angelsen 1995). A cycle of jungle rubber cultivation begins with forest clearing and burning. Both rice and rubber are planted. Rice is harvested for two years, and the plot is then left to revert to forest. After about eight years, a rubber-rich secondary forest results. The rubber can be tapped profitably for twenty to thirty years before declining yields prompt another cycle of burning and replanting. Jungle rubber is particularly interesting for two reasons. First, it is relatively profitable, and entirely smallholder-oriented. A jungle rubber plot produces approximately 600 kg (dry equivalent) of rubber per hectare per year (van Noordwijk et al. 1995); the current rubber price is about $1.60/kg. There are essentially no input costs aside from labor. Where tappers are hired, they work on a 2/3 share basis, currently netting about $4.50/day, which is far above the minimum wage. Thus, allowing a 1/3 return to land, assuming that 1/3 of an area devoted to jungle rubber is too young to tap, land devoted to jungle rubber has a rental value of more than $100/ha. Second, it is an environmentally attractive land use. Jungle rubber, being essentially old secondary forest, strongly resembles the primary forest. Its species richness is about half the level of the primary forest. Michon and de Foresta (1994) found that sample jungle rubber sites contained 92 tree species, 97 lianas, and 28 epiphytes vs. 171, 89, and 63 respectively in the primary forest -- and compared to 1,1, and 2 in monoculture estates. Thiollay (1995) estimates that jungle rubber supports about 137 (45% of them associated with primary forests) bird species vs. 241 in the primary forest itself. We would expect jungle rubber also to resemble primary forest in its hydrological functions. Jungle rubber is widespread in Sumatra and Kalimantan. Administrative reports from the Directorate General of Estate Crops put smallholder rubber at 2,649,993 ha nationwide for 1991; the Survey of Smallholder Estate Crops estimates the area for 1991 at 1,649,910 ha. (Central Bureau of Statistics, 1993) However, these may both be underestimates. A detailed (1: scale) land use map of Jambi province for the late 1980's classifies approximately 625,000

6 , shifting cultivation, and tree crops in Indonesia p. 4 hectares as jungle rubber 1. However, field visits suggest that much of the 500,000 hectares classified as secondary regrowth (belukar) is in fact jungle rubber. Thus Jambi alone may contain a million hectares of rubber, versus administrative reports of about half a million hectares. This disparity may be due to the peculiar characteristics of jungle rubber, inherently much harder to inventory than monoculture plantations. It may in part reflect classification errors in the land use maps, since jungle rubber is difficult to distinguish using remote-sensing data. It may also reflect rubber cultivation which falls outside the scope of surveys, either because it is on national land or because it has been abandoned, perhaps temporarily. While there are published data on cropping area at the district (kabupaten) level, they permit only limited insight into the relation between agriculture and deforestation, for several reasons. First, as we have seen, administrative reports may not provide a comprehensive view of cropped area. Second, published data do not allow us to distinguish between cropping patterns in long-settled areas, and areas at the current agricultural frontier. Finally, administrative reports do not distinguish, and may not even cover, shifting cultivators. Below we describe a data set which circumvents these problems. 4. Data The PODES (Potensi Desa) is a census of all Indonesian villages carried out by the Central Bureau of Statistics. Information is gathered by interview of the village head or other designated village representative. From the 1993 round we extract the following information for rural villages: Agricultural households by type: the PODES asks for the number of households involved in food crops (tanaman pangan, encompassing staple crops, vegetables, fruits, and decorative plants); tree crops (perkebunan rakyat, literally smallholder estate crops, including tobacco), forestry, animal husbandry, and some minor additional categories. A separate part of the survey ('environment and housing') asks for the number of shifting cultivator (peladang berpindah) households. These are defined as "farmers who undertake cultivation of annual crops on fields in the forest to which they do not have rights, without fixed location". Inclusion of this question in the environment section of the questionnaire suggests that the respondents may have included shifting cultivators who live near the village but are not considered residents. The survey instructions do not specify that these various categories (shifting cultivation, food crops, etc.) are to be considered mutually exclusive, and we assume that an individual household may be tallied under multiple categories. The sum of the categories often exceeds the total number of agricultural households (reported in a third section of the survey). This could result either from overlap among categories, or from the well-known survey phenomenon in which 1 Based on analysis of a digital map derived from the ReppproT survey.

7 , shifting cultivation, and tree crops in Indonesia p. 5 disaggregation of a broad category prompts more accurate recall. : PODES requests a breakdown of forest land (hutan) converted to other uses over the period , in hectares. This variable requires careful interpretation. First, the respondents may lack the facilities to make precise areal estimates. Second, it is possible that some respondents may have included secondary forest or tree crop estates in the 'forest' category, since there are no questions dealing explicitly with the former. Third, the instructions for a prior question on land use specifically exclude from consideration state forest land (which constitutes the bulk of all forested areas). However, those instructions are not repeated for the conversion question. Moreover, the boundaries between village lands and state lands may be imperfectly known. For the purposes of this analysis, we are content to use the deforestation response as a crude qualitative indicator. Villages reporting zero hectares of deforestation are assumed to be within the agricultural frontier. Villages reporting more than zero, but less than 100 hectares of deforestation are classed as moderate deforestation areas. Villages reporting more than 100 hectares of deforestation are classed as high deforestation areas. 2 Crops: If tree crops were grown in the village the previous year, the respondent is asked to list up to five, in order of importance. For crops of interest (rubber, coffee, coconuts), we coded whether the crop was grown at all, and if so whether it was cited as the most important tree crop. 5. Results Table 2a reports the ratio of shifting cultivator households to all agricultural households, by deforestation group and island group. As expected, the table shows deforestation to be associated with an increasing proportion of shifting cultivators (with the exception of an anomalous low percentage in high deforestation villages in Maluku). In Sumatra, for instance, that ratio rises from just 0.03 in areas classed as non-deforesting, to 0.11 in high deforestation areas 3. It is striking, however, that the relative number of shifting cultivators is quite low in Sumatra and Sulawesi. More surprisingly, even in the high deforestation areas of Kalimantan, the ratio is only 36%. Only in high deforestation areas of Irian Jaya does the ratio reach 50%. As a robustness check, unweighted means of the village ratios were calculated (see table 2b). The means are slightly higher -- plausibly indicating high shifting cultivator ratios in small villages -- but the qualitative results are the same: shifting cultivators are not in the majority at the forest frontier. Table 3a reports the ratio of tree crop households to total agricultural households by island and 2 An alternative classification could be based on deforestation area divided by village area, but the latter may not be well defined. 3 Table 6 gives sample sizes. For some island groups, the number of villages in highdeforestation areas is small.

8 , shifting cultivation, and tree crops in Indonesia p. 6 deforestation group. Again the ratio tends to rise with increasing level of deforestation. In Kalimantan and Nusa Tenggara, almost half of households in high deforestation areas are involved in tree crops. The ratio is higher still for Sumatra, Sulawesi, and Maluku. Only in Irian Jaya are tree crops of minor importance to households. Table 3b shows very similar results from an unweighted mean. What are these tree crops? Table 4a and 4b and maps 1 and 2 show that rubber is the dominant smallholder crop for both deforesting and non-deforesting areas in much of Sumatra and Kalimantan 4. In high deforestation areas in Sumatra, two thirds of villages report growing rubber, and 54% of villages report that rubber is not only grown but is the most important tree crop 5. Coconuts are widespread in Nusa Tenggara and Sulawesi and are almost universally found in deforesting villages in Maluku. (See table 4c and 4d). As maps 3 and 4 suggests, coconuts are often associated with conversion of coastal forests -- though it should be noted that coconuts also occur naturally in coastal ecosystems. In Sulawesi, coconut planting is viewed as a convenient way to establish tenure over land, because the trees require little maintenance and can be harvested at any time 6. Cocoa is locally important in Maluku and Sulawesi (table 4e and 4f), but in Maluku is less important to the village than coconuts. Coffee is found in significant proportions of all villages in Sumatra and Nusa Tenggara, and in many deforesting villages in Kalimantan and Sulawesi (table 4g and 4h), though it is usually not the most important tree crop. Table 5 shows the proportion of villages reporting a large tree-crop estate present. There is a strong association between deforestation and the presence of estates in Sumatra and Sulawesi. Note that large estates may border several villages, so the total number of estates is less than the number reporting them. 6. Discussion Tree crop cultivation by smallholders is a prominent feature of the agricultural frontier everywhere except Irian Jaya. Large tree crop estates are prominent in deforestation areas in Sumatra and Sulawesi. Shifting cultivation of annual crops, by contrast, is common only in Irian Jaya and Kalimantan -- and in the latter case, may often be part of a cultivation system which includes perennials. 4 Again note that sample sizes by kabupaten can be very small. See maps 5 and 6. However, there is strong geographical similarity between cropping patterns in the moderate and high deforestation areas. 5 Table 4b shows the proportion of all villages which report both that rubber is grown and that it is the most important tree crop. 6 Robin Bourgeouis, pers. comm.

9 , shifting cultivation, and tree crops in Indonesia p. 7 The key role of tree crops has important implications for conservation and development policy. First, it suggests that research and extension policies to increase farmer productivity may increase pressure on remaining forests. For instance, efforts are underway to introduce higher-yielding rubber varieties into jungle rubber systems. If this results in higher profits, it might benefit a large group of smallholders, but it would increase conversion pressure on remaining lowland forest areas in Sumatra and Kalimantan. Thus interventions to boost yields need to be linked with strengthened forest protection, particularly of logged-over forests. Second, it suggests that deforestation in many areas will be sensitive to the exchange rate and to world commodity market, especially rubber, coffee, and cocoa. Angelsen (1995), for instance, in a case study of Riau province, reports a strong forest-clearing response to rising rubber prices in the mid 1980's. Third, one would expect that provision of alternative livelihoods will have variable impacts on deforestation, depending on local cropping patterns and incentives. It may, for instance, be difficult to reduce conversion incentives for rubber or coffee by providing alternative employment opportunities. This is because wages for hired workers are already high relative to alternatives in Javanese agriculture (Smith and Bouvier, p. 157). Even if those wages could be matched and current workers lured away, there would be a ready stream of potential migrants to take their place, and continued strong incentives for land owners or claimants to employ them. Finally, environmental impacts vary substantially between crops, suggesting a regionally nuanced approach to conservation and development strategies. For instance, jungle rubber is one of the most environmentally desirable land uses imaginable, preserving a significant fraction of the biodiversity represented in the primary forest. Thus a far-sighted conservation approach would be to find instruments that encourage jungle rubber relative to monoculture plantations, while preserving plots of primary forest as seed areas. Over the next two or three decades, as Indonesian wages increase and urbanization proceeds, jungle rubber will become less profitable, and rural inhabitants will seek better opportunities in towns and cities. Barring unforeseen new land uses, much of this area could then revert to mature forest. On the other hand, conversion of swamp forest to coconuts involves major, probably irreversible changes to the ecosystem and establishment of a monoculture not conducive to biodiversity. 7. Conclusions and future directions We have reviewed evidence from the Indonesian village census suggesting that tree crops, rather than subsistence-oriented shifting cultivation, play a major role in deforestation. While this data set is notable for its extraordinary spatial precision, it is limited in its coverage of deforestation and of economic incentives affecting land use. Future work will attempt to validate and extend this analysis in a number of directions. First, we will seek farm budget data with which to calculate returns per hectare of alternative land uses. Second, we will link the village census with the Susenas (a large-sample household socioeconomic survey) in order to compare earnings and

10 , shifting cultivation, and tree crops in Indonesia p. 8 welfare measures of households at the agricultural frontier with households in other areas. This will provide additional information on the potential migration response at the forest frontier to changes in employment opportunities in towns or in long-established agricultural areas. Finally, we will use spatially disaggregate data to examine the impact of infrastructure, especially roads, on forest conversion, crop choice, and welfare. This is of particular policy importance given the very large investments Indonesia is making in extending and upgrading rural roads in the Outer Islands.

11 , shifting cultivation, and tree crops in Indonesia p. 9 Bibliography Angelsen, Arild. (1995) "Shifting Cultivation and '': A Study from Indonesia". World Development, 23(10), Barbier, Edward, Nancy Bockstael, Joanne Burgess, Ivar Strand (1994). "The timber trade and tropical deforestation in Indonesia". In Katrina Brown and David W. Pearce, eds., The Causes of Tropical. London, UCL Press. Central Bureau of Statistics (Indonesia). (1993). Survei Perkebunan Rakyat 1991 (Hasil Pencacahan Rumahtangga). Charras, Muriel, and Marc Pain (1993). Spontaneous Settlements in Indonesia: Agricultural Pioneers in Southern Sumatra. Jakarta: Departement of Transmigration and Bondy, France: ORSTOM. Chomitz, Kenneth M. and David A. Gray. (1995) Roads, Land, Markets and : A Spatial Analysis of Land Use in Belize. World Bank, Policy Research Department, Working Paper no Chomitz, Kenneth M. and David A. Gray (1996, forthcoming) "Roads, Land Use, and : A Spatial Model applied to Belize". World Bank Economic Review. Gouyon, A., H. de Foresta, and P. Levang. (1993) "Does 'jungle rubber' deserve its name? An analysis of rubber agroforestry". Agroforestry Systems 22, Hyde, William F., Gregory S. Amacher, and William Magrath, ", Scarece Forest Resources, and Forest Land Use: Theory, Empirical Evidence, and Policy Implications". Draft revision of paper presented at the 4th Annual Conference of the International Association for the Study of Common Property, Manila, June 15-19, Michon, Genevieve and Hubert de Foresta (1994) Forest Resouce Management and Biodiversity Conservation: the Inodnesian Agroforest Model. Annex 5: Communication to the IUCN Workshop Biodiversity Conservation outside protect areas, Madrid, March Ministry of State for Population and Environment (Indonesia) (1992). Indonesian Country Study on Biological Diversity. Smith, Glenn, and Hélène Bouvier (1993) "Spontaneous migrants strategies and settlement processees in mountains and plains" in Charras and Pain (1993), q.v. Thiollay, Jean-Marc (1995) "The Role of Traditional Agroforests in the Conservation of Rain

12 , shifting cultivation, and tree crops in Indonesia p. 10 Forest Bird Diversity in Sumatra". Conservation Biology 9 (2), pp Tomich, Thomas P. and Meine van Noordwijk. "What Drives in Sumatra?" Paper presented at Regional Symposium on "Montane Mainland Southeast Asia in Transition" Chiang Mai, November van Noordwijk et al., eds. (1995) Alternatives to Slash-and-burn in Indonesia: Summary Report of Phase 1. ASB-Indonesia Report no. 4. Bogor: ICRAF-SE Asia.

13 , shifting cultivation, and tree crops in Indonesia p. 11 Table 1: A typology of cropping systems Cropping system Returns to land Labor intensity Price-elasticity of output demand Effect of intensification on forest conversion Effect of wage increases on forest conversion Sensitivity to macro conditions Shifting cultivation for subsistence Very low low to moderate low reduces conversion unless migrants are attracted depends on returns to labor;possible decrease low upland agriculture tied to national markets for staple crops low moderate to high high increases conversion; probably increases welfare strong decrease as labor is attracted away high export oriented tree crops, e.g. rubber relatively high moderate high increases conversion possible reduction in conversion high

14 , shifting cultivation, and tree crops in Indonesia p. 12 Table 2: Ratio of Shifting Cultivator to Agricultural Households No Moderate Heavy All Villages Table 2a: Weighted Mean Sumatra Nusa Tenggara Kalimantan Sulawesi Maluku Irian Jaya Table 2b: Unweighted Mean Sumatra Nusa Tenggara Kalimantan Sulawesi Maluku Irian Jaya Table 3: Ratio of Tree Crop to Agricultural Households No Moderate Heavy All Villages Table 3a: Weighted Mean Sumatra Nusa Tenggara Kalimantan Sulawesi Maluku Irian Jaya Table 3b: Unweighted Mean Sumatra Nusa Tenggara Kalimantan Sulawesi Maluku Irian Jaya

15 , shifting cultivation, and tree crops in Indonesia p. 13 Table 4: Crop production No Moderate Heavy All Villages Table 4a: Proportion of Villages Growing Rubber Sumatra Nusa Tenggara Kalimantan Sulawesi Maluku Irian Jaya Table 4b: Proportion of Villages Reporting Rubber as the Most Important Tree Crop Sumatra Nusa Tenggara Kalimantan Sulawesi Maluku Irian Jaya Table 4c: Proportion of Villages Growing Coconut Sumatra Nusa Tenggara Kalimantan Sulawesi Maluku Irian Jaya Table 4d: Proportion of Villages Reporting Coconut as the Most Important Tree Crop Sumatra Nusa Tenggara Kalimantan Sulawesi Maluku Irian Jaya Table 4e: Proportion of Villages Growing Cocoa Sumatra Nusa Tenggara Kalimantan Sulawesi Maluku Irian Jaya

16 , shifting cultivation, and tree crops in Indonesia p. 14 Table 4f: Proportion of Villages Reporting Cocoa as the Most Important Tree Crop Sumatra Nusa Tenggara Kalimantan Sulawesi Maluku Irian Jaya Table 4g: Proportion of Villages Growing Coffee Sumatra Nusa Tenggara Kalimantan Sulawesi Maluku Irian Jaya Table 4h: Proportion of Villages Reporting Coffee as the Most Important Tree Crop Sumatra Nusa Tenggara Kalimantan Sulawesi Maluku Irian Jaya Table 5: Proportion of Villages Reporting Tree Crop Estates No Moderate Heavy All Villages Sumatra Nusa Tenggara Kalimantan Sulawesi Maluku Irian Jaya

17 , shifting cultivation, and tree crops in Indonesia p. 15 Table 6: Number of Villages No Moderate Heavy All Villages Sumatra Nusa Tenggara Kalimantan Sulawesi Maluku Irian Jaya

18 , shifting cultivation, and tree crops in Indonesia p. 16

19 , shifting cultivation, and tree crops in Indonesia p. 17 Map Proportion of of Villages Growing Number Coconut Rubber of Villages in areas in areas of moderate of high deforestation Proportion of of villages growing coconut rubber - continuous gray scale.00 villages report rubber coconut growing Number of Villages 0 villages 0 villages.25 villages report rubber coconut growing 1 to 5 villages 1 to 5 villages.50 villages report rubber coconut growing 6 to 10 villages 6 to 10 villages.75 villages report rubber coconut growing 11 to 60 villages 11 to 60 villages 61 to 167 villages 1.00 villages report rubber coconut growing KM Missing Missing out of sample