FOOD SECURITY OUTLOOK

Transcription

1 FOOD SECURITY OUTLOOK EAST AFRICA REGION AUGUST-DECEMBER 2012 FEWSNET & FSNWG

2 Briefing overview Regional drivers and context Rainfall performance and seasonal progress Market and price behavior Conflict Macroeconomic indicators Rainfall forecast through the Outlook period Outlook for key areas of concern through December 2

3 Key messages Although food insecurity remains high in the region, the current food security context differs dramatically from last year, one of the driest years since Last year, Famine conditions were prevalent in Somalia, while Emergency (IPC Phase 4) levels of food insecurity and emergency levels of acute malnutrition were widespread throughout the eastern Horn. 3

4 Key messages Food insecurity in the East Africa region is driven by poor and delayed March-May rains, impacts of conflict, declining macroeconomic trends, and heightened food prices. The October-December period will generally bring gradual food security improvements: food supplies will increase following harvests. prices generally decline, and income opportunities will increase, as will livestock productivity and prices. However, in Sudan, South Sudan, and Somalia, harvests may not compensate for the impacts of conflict, which include restrained access to land, markets and trade, productive inputs, aid, and labor opportunities. 4

5 Performance of March May/June rains Contribution of March to May rains to annual totals Rainfall anomalies, Mar 1- May 31, 2012 Source: USGS/FEWS NET Source: USGS/ FEWS NET 5

6 June to September rainfall performance to date Contribution of June to September rains to annual totals Rainfall anomalies: June-July, 2012 Source: USGS/FEWS NET Source: USGS/FEWS NET 6

7 Region Harvest prospects Prospects ETHIOPIA Belg Well below average (Ongoing - delayed by 2 months) Meher high potential Meher eastern marginal National level Average (October-December) Below average (October-December) Near average KENYA Coastal and SE marginal (LR) Well below average (Ongoing) High production areas (LR) National level Average to above average Below average SOMALIA Gu high potential irrigated Above average (September) Gu rainfed agropastoral National level Well below average Well below average UGANDA First season harvests Well above average (June-August) TANZANIA Masika harvests Below average (June-August) 7

8 Price Trends in Eastern Africa Sorghum USD/kg Sorghum prices are especially high in Sudan and South Sudan Jan-08 May-08 Sep USD/kg Jan-09 May-09 Dire Dawa, Ethiopia* Juba, South Sudan Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Maize Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 Baidoa, Somalia El Fasher, Sudan May-12 Sorghum prices are especially high in Sudan and South Sudan. Maize prices have recovered from spikes last year, but they are still very high, especially in Tanzania and Kenya Note: * indicates wholesale prices. All other prices are retail Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 Bahir Dar, Ethiopia* Eldoret, Kenya* May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Qorioley, Somalia Jan-12 Arusha, Tanzania* May-12 Sources: Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit-Somalia (FSNAU)/FEWS NET, Ethiopia Grain Trade Enterprise (EGTE), World Food Program (WFP), Ministry of Industry, Trade, and Marketing of Tanzania (MITM), Regional Agricultural Trade Intelligence Network (RATIN), Sudan Institutional Capacity Program: Food Security Information for Action (SIFSIA), Ministry of Agriculture of Kenya 8

9 Blue Nile, South Kordofan and Darfur in Sudan Conflict July to September: Food Insecurity and Key Conflict Zones in East Africa Juba Valley Mogadishu and Afgoye Corridor Greater Mandera Triangle Emerging new areas in Northeastern and Tana River areas in Kenya Outside region: North and South Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) Note: Zones of conflict that are impacting food security are within or near the black circles. Source: FEWS NET, WFP (Ethiopia), and FSNAU (Somalia) 9

10 September to December rains Percentage contribution of October December rains to annual totals Source: USGS/FEWS NET El Nino on watch status; increased likelihood for a late onset, mild-moderate El Nino conditions in the Oct. Dec. period. Current positive IOD trends could mean enhanced rainfall, above-average rains in October to December in the eastern sector of the region, though the impacts are rarely uniform across the region Rainfall during the October to December season could also extend into January

11 El Niño La Niña Weak Mod Strong Weak Mod Strong months. El-Nino/La-Nina Categories & Frequencies The Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) has become the de-facto standard that NOAA uses for identifying El Niño (warm) and La Niña (cool) events in the tropical Pacific. It is the running 3-month mean SST anomaly for the Niño 3.4 region (i.e., 5 o N-5 o S, 120 o o W). Events are defined as 5 consecutive months at or above the +0.5 o anomaly for warm (El Niño) events and at or below the anomaly for cold (La Niña) events. The threshold is further broken down into Weak (with a 0.5 to 0.9 SST anomaly), Moderate (1.0 to 1.4) and Strong ( 1.5) events. For the purpose of this report for an event to be categorized as weak, moderate or strong it much have equaled or exceeded the threshold for at least 3 months.

12 September to December rains Rainfall Probability Forecast Rainfall Anomalies (mm) Source: ICPAC & Partners 12

13 Historical Vulnerability by Forecast El-Nino conditions Frequency of short-rains rainfall categories in last 9 El Niño years Percentage Frequency for Above-Normal rainfall during the short-rains in past moderate El-Nino events Source: UKMET Office Source: USGS/FEWSNET GHACOF31: 70% probability for occurrence of El-Nino by Sept 2012

14 El-Nino impacts on short-rains Performance Selected Analog Years: 2006/7 & 2009/10

15 Transition from El-Nino to Near-Neutral Conditions: (Feb.-Sep. 206/7 & 2009/10)

16 Assumptions Matrix: Agric Prod. Prospects Eastern Africa 2012 Crop Performance SOND2012 MAM2013 Belg to- Neutral Severe El-Nino MAM Kiremt Current Weak La-Nina Mild El-Nino Moderate El-Nino

17 Assumptions Matrix: Agric Prod. Prospects Southern Africa 2012 Crop Performance SOND - MAM2013 Current Weak La-Nina to- Neutral Mild El-Nino Moderate El-Nino Severe El-Nino

18 Assumption Matrix: Rangeland Resources MAMJJ2012 SOND2012 MAM2013 Current Weak La-Nina to- Neutral Mild El-Nino Moderate El-Nino Severe El-Nino

19 Assumption Matrix: emodis/ndvi 31 Aug:2012 Dec May Current Weak La-Nina to- Neutral Mild El-Nino Moderate El-Nino Dec May. 2003

20 Assumption Matrix: Flood Risk & RVF? SOND2012 MAM2013 Mild El-Nino Moderate El-Nino Severe El-Nino Areas of concern

21 2006/7 El-Nino Impacts on Floods Risk (Areas to watch for potential flood risks) 2006/7 Floods 1. Recharge of major Dams.. 2. Transportation is likely to be affected in flood prone areas.. could also constrain relief supplies 3. Environmental degradation a

22 Kenya: El-Nino Impacts on Transport Networks Qns. Can develop similar hotspots maps for ALL the countries?

23 East Africa region, expected food security August-September, 2012 outcomes October-December, 2012 Source: FEWS NET Source: FEWS NET 23

24 Southeastern Kenya Key Areas of Concern Guban pastoral livelihood zone Agropastoral southern Somalia Eastern Marginal Meherproducing South Kordofan and Blue Nile Border areas of South Sudan 24

25 1 Next Steps 2: FSNWG & Donor Briefings: Mid-Sept, : El-Nino hot-spot mapping and monitoring 25

26 For more information FSNWG & El-Nino Task Team Nairobi, KENYA Nigist Biru, Nancy Mutunga & Gideon Galu Regional & National FEWS NET Offices & /6/9 26

27 Source: NOAA Thanks! 27

28 Southeastern Kenya March-May Rainfall Anomaly, mm Several poor seasons: 2011 long rains (March-May) 2011 short rains (October- December) 2012 long rains (March-May) Poor household food stocks as a result Relatively high prices of staples Some conflict over access to water and pasture for livestock Source: USGS/FEWS NET 28

29 Southeastern Kenya July September, 2012 Assumptions: Above average short rains Milk availability and short-cycle crops by November and December Prices decline in October as the long rains harvest from the surplusproducing areas enters markets.. Source: FEWS NET 29

30 IPC 2.0 Area Phase Classification PHASE 1 Minimal PHASE 2 Stressed PHASE 3 Crisis PHASE 4 Emergency PHASE 5 Famine Households are able to meet essential food and non-food needs without engaging in atypical, unsustainable strategies, including any reliance on humanitarian assistance. At least 1 in 5 households, has minimally adequate food consumption but is unable to afford some essential non-food expenditures without engaging in irreversible coping strategies At least 1 in 5 households face food consumption gaps with high or above usual acute malnutrition or marginally able to meet minimum food needs only with accelerated depletion of livelihood assets that will lead to food consumption gaps. At least 1 in 5 households face large food consumption gaps resulting in very high acute malnutrition or excess mortality or has extreme loss of livelihood assets that will lead to large food consumption gaps in the short term. At least 1 in 5 households face an extreme lack of food and/or other basic needs even with full employment of coping strategies. Starvation, death, and destitution are evident. 30

31 Guban Pastoral Livelihood Zone Poor consecutive seasons Limited December to February Hays No December to February Hays Some areas have not seen rain since early December 2010 Drought-affected livestock near Abdiqadir and Luughaya villages Very poor milk availability Drawing down of livestock assets Reliant on boreholes with long trekking distances Primarily dependent upon remittances from Djibouti Source: FEWS NET 31

32 Guban Pastoral Livelihood Zone Assumptions: Some June to September Karan run-off towards the coast Remittances from Djibouti continue Prices fall following the Karan harvest in October and November, especially for white sorghum Additional livestock losses between now and December July September, 2012 Note: New maps will be available by the end of August. Source: FEWS NET 32

33 Agropastoral Southern Somalia emodis NDVI Anomaly, June Deyr (October-December) was poor Source: USGS/FEWS NET 2011 Gu (April-June) was very poor 2011 Deyr (October-December) was late, but above average 2012 Gu (April to June) started late, ended early, and was erratic Conflict in Juba Valley, Gedo, Hiran, Bay Staple prices have recovered from 2011 and are sometimes below the 5-year average Debt repayment remains a key expense 33

34 Agropastoral Southern Somalia July to September 2012 Assumptions: Gu harvest delayed into the off-season in September Livestock prices will remain near current levels or increase Expecting average to above-average Deyr rains from October to December Conflict will continue to hinder trade in the lower Juba Valley Source: FEWS NET 34

35 Eastern Marginal Meher-Producing February to May Belg rains were very late 1,200 Grain prices in Dire Dawa, Ethiopia ETB/100 kg June to September Kiremt rains 900 started erratically, but they have 600 improved Prices are lower than last year, but have been rising since March Some land is taken up by late Belg crops Feb-08 Jun-08 Oct-08 Feb-09 Jun-09 Oct-09 Feb-10 Jun-10 Oct-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct-11 Feb-12 white sorghum maize white wheat Jun-12 Poor seed availability for short-cycle crops when the Kiremt arrived in June Source: EGTE 35

36 Eastern Marginal Meher-Producing Assumptions: Early cessation of the Kiremt, in some areas Unseasonable rains in October and November damage standing crops Livestock prices remain near current levels Grain prices start to fall in October October to December 2012 Source: WFP and FEWS NET 36

37 Ongoing conflict and displacement in parts of South Kordofan, Blue Nile Poor 2011/2012 harvest and low food stocks South Kordofan and Blue Nile Atypically high prices across most key markets; trade flows 20-25% of normal in South Kordofan Estimated food security outcomes, August/September, 2012 Unstable macroeconomic and political context Limitations on humanitarian assistance South Kordofan Blue Nile 150, ,000 in SPLM-N areas 100, ,000 in GoS areas 50, ,000 in SPLM-N areas 100,000 in GoS areas Source: FEWS NET 37

38 Key outlook assumptions in South Kordofan/Blue Nile Cultivation: Area planted likely to be below average due to insecurity and high production and fuel costs. Livestock production: Traditional livestock migration patterns into South Sudan during the dry season will remain restricted. Population flows: Restricted movement out of SPLM-N areas likely to continue. Agreement on oil transit fees with South Sudan: Resumption of oil production will resume (after several months), though issues remain unresolved. Tripartite agreement: Could pave way for access to SPLM-N controlled areas, but unlikely during Outlook period. Estimated food security outcomes, October-December 2012 Source: FEWS NET 38

39 Border areas of South Sudan: Drivers of Current Outcomes Key areas of concern: parts of Jonglei, Northern Bahr El Gazal, Unity, Upper Nile, and Warrap states Stressed and Crisis levels of food insecurity in these areas driven by widespread insecurity and the impact on livelihoods and displacement, inflation and the border closure, last year s below-average crop performance, and pressures due to the returnee, displaced, and refugee populations. Estimated food security outcomes, August/September, 2012 Source: FEWS NET 39

40 Refugee populations in South Sudan More than 60,000 refugees in Unity State; vast majority in Yida camp FEWS NET nutrition and food security survey conducted in early July 2012 suggests that both malnutrition and child mortality have reached emergency levels: GAM prevalence of 21.8 percent and SAM prevalence of 6.1 percent Death rate for children under 5 estimated at 2.15/10,000/day 105,000 refugees in Upper Nile UN began airdrops in Maban camp in August following refugee influx Refugee influx in 2012 Source: UN OCHA 40

41 Key assumptions for the scenario period Imports: Informal trade with Sudan may continue in limited quantities. Traders will continue to rely on imports from Uganda and Ethiopia to meet increased demand. Cereal prices: Though prices will remain above-average during the scenario period, likely to decline with harvests. Humanitarian assistance: Delivery of assistance to all areas of concern expected to continue. Cultivation: Although rains may perform average to above-average this year, area planted is expected to be below average due to 1) displacement; 2) departure of northern farmers from Renk; 3) Estimated food security outcomes, October-December 2012 Source: FEWS NET 41