Market Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit - Somalia

Transcription

1 P.O. Box 123 Village Market, Nairobi, Kenya tel: fax: FSNAU is managed by FAO The boundaries and names on these maps do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. The regional & District boundaries reflect those endorsed by the Government of the Republic of Somalia in Market Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit - Somalia October Data 21 (Issued November 2, 21) Highlights Inflation: SoSh (Somali shilling)-using areas: In the month of October, the Consumer Index (CPI) changed marginally (2-4%) in the SoSh-using areas. Compared to a year ago (October 214), the CPI decreased (-13%) in SoSh-using areas in October due to cereal price declines. SISh (Somaliland shilling)-using areas: The CPI increased marginally (%) month-on-month in October. The CPI decreased by 4 percent compared to a year ago (October 214). Exchange rate: SoSh-using areas: The exchange rates between SoSh and the United States Dollar (USD) indicated stability or marginal monthly changes (1-3%) in October. The SoSh depreciated compared to a year ago across all areas, most significantly (9%) in Gedo. SISh-using areas: The SISh remained stable against the USD in October month-on-month. Annual comparison indicates depreciation in SISh by 9 percent. Local grain prices remained relatively stable or changed (increased/decreased) by less than 1 percent in October in Most regions of the country with an exception of Lower Shabbele, Bay and Banadir (Mogadishu Bakara) where prices increased moderately (11-23%) due to reduced cereal stock at household level and increased cost of transportation attributable to inaccessibility of roads as a result of Deyr 1 rainfall. Cereal prices are lower compared to a year ago in most regions of the country. s of imported food (rice, sugar, vegetable oil, wheat flour) mostly exhibited relative stability or mild monthly changes in local currency terms in October in most parts of the country apart from Bay region where prices of all food imports increased moderately (1-12%) month-on-month due to increased transportation cost attributable to worsened road condition as a result of Deyr 1 rainfall. Annual price comparison indicated a generally stable trend or mild changes in prices for most of the imported food commodities in October compared to October 214. Livestock prices (for all species) remained relatively stable or changed at mild rates (less than 1%) month-on-month in October in most regions of the country. Milk prices (camel and cattle) changed from mild to moderate rates month-on-month in most regions of the country; a high increase (37%) in monthly fresh camel milk prices was noted in Lower Shabelle due to reduced supply as a result of camel migration away from the market catchment area. Annual comparison exhibited mixed trends; specifically, in the Northern and Central parts of country, yearly prices changed at mild rates (less than 1%); Livestock prices for most southern regions were lower compared to one year ago except in Middle Juba where livestock prices for all species increased from moderate to high levels. Compared to a year ago milk prices (camel and cattle) increased in most parts of the country except in middle Juba and sorghum belt regions where declines in prices were recorded. Labor (unskilled) wages remained relatively stable or changed at mild rates (increase/decrease) in the month of October in most parts of the country. Notably, daily labour wage in Lower Juba increased moderately (16%) due to increased activities including rehabilitation of roads in Kismayo town. Annual Belet Xawo DJIBOUTI Dolo Afmadow Borama Aden Yabal Gedo Baidoa M. Shabelle El Waq Qansah Dere Jowhar Dinsor Bay Wanle Weyne Bardera Afgoye Qoryoley Banadir Merka Doobley Juba Hagar Tog-Wajaale Luuq Buale Jilib Jamame Kismayo Zeilac Awdal Hargeisa El Barde Bakol Woq. Galbeed Hudur L. Shabelle Burao Togdheer Belet Weyne Hiran Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit - Somalia Abudwaq Dusa Mareb Galgadud Erigabo Sanag Sool Lasanod El Der Galkayo Mudug Haradhere Garowe Nugal Bossaso Bari Monitored Market Market Catchment Central Juba Valley North East North West Shabelle Valley Sorghum belt Major Road Regional Boundary This Market Data Update is a monthly report that presents analysis of market information and is produced regularly as part of the monthly monitoring process. The weekly price data is collected from 48 main markets and 1 rural markets throughout Somalia since 199. Market analysis is an integral part of all of FSNAU s annual food security projections and seasonal technical reports (Technical Reports on FSNAU Post Gu and Post Deyr Analysis). Detailed market data are available online on comparison indicates mild to moderate increases in wage rates in most regions of the country in October with the highest increase (2%) being recorded in Bakool (Hudur and El-berde). (ToT) between daily labor wage and local cereals either remained stable or changed at mild rates (1-2kg/daily labour wage) monthon-month in October in most parts of the country except in Banadir (Mogadishu-Bakara) where it declined by 7kg/daily labour wage due to decline in labour wage rate and increase in cereal prices. The ToT between local quality goat and cereals changed at mild rates in most regions of the country apart from Banadir (Mogadishu Bakara), Lower Shabelle, Hiran and Bay where the ToT declined moderately (12-24%). Annual comparison indicated relative stability or increase in ToT between daily labor wage and local cereals in most regions of the country, while ToT between local quality goat and cereals changed at mild to moderate rates across the country with the highest change (increase of 7Kg/local quality goat) being recorded in Middle Juba due to significant increase in local quality goat prices and decrease in local cereal prices. Towns Affected by Trade Disruption (Bulo Burto, Wajid and Hudur) Labor (unskilled) wages increased at mild rates (2-1%) in all the three markets in October month-on-month. Annual comparison indicated increase in wage rates in Hudur (%). (ToTs) between daily labor wage and local cereals and between Local quality goat and local cereals remained relatively stable month-on-month in Wajid and Hudur while in Bulo-Burto the ToT between local quality goat and local cereals declined by 8kg/local quality goat due to decline in local quality goat prices. ToTs are higher compared to a year ago in Hudur due to decrease in cereal prices and increase in labor wages and goat prices Local grains prices remained stable in Hudur and Wajid but increased in Bulo-Burto (12%) month-on-month in October. Annual comparison indicated significant (3%) decline in red sorghum prices in Hudur. s of imported food items (rice, sugar, vegetable oil, wheat flour) increased (4-21%) month-on-month in October in all the three markets. Annual comparison indicated decline in prices in Hudur due to improved access as a result of improved security situation.

2 National Trends: CPI, Exchange Rates, Cereal s and Relative Purchasing Power Table 1: ToT between Cereals (kg) and Daily Wage Rate, by Region (September) Regions October 21 (kg) kg change from Sep - 21 Oct - 21 October yr (21-214) Banadir/Mogadishu Bay Bakool Gedo Juba Shabelle Northwest Northeast Central 2 Figure 1: Wheat s: Mogadishu and Bossaso Markets 18, 16, 14, 12, Bossaso Mogadishu per Kg 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Source: FSNAU Manfest Monitoring System Figure 2: Between Wage Rates and Selected Cereals Figure 3: ly Exchange Rate for Selected Regions (SoSh and SlSh to USD) 2 2 TOT to Sorghum (Sorghum Belt) TOT to Rice (NW) TOT to Maize (Juba & Shabelle) TOT to Rice (Central & NE) 4, 3, Baidoa(SoSh) Bosasso(SoSh) Galkayo(SoSh) Mogadishu(SoSh) Hargeisa(SlSh) 8, 8, 7, Kg Cereal per Daily Wage Rate 1 1 SoSh per US Dollar 3, 2, 2, 1, 7, 6, 6,,, 4, SlSh per US Dollar Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-1 Jul-1 1, Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-1 Jul-1 4, Figure 4: ly Trends in Consumer Index (CPI, March 27=1) CPI Oct-1 Jan-11 CPI Central CPI North(Sosh) CPI North(SlSh) CPI South CPI somalia (SoShs) Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-1 Jul-1 per Kg (SoSH) Figure : ly Trends in Local Cereal s 39, 36, 33, 3, 27, 24, 21, 18, 1, 12, 9, 6, 3, Juba Valley(White Maize 1 kg) Shabelle Valley(White Maize 1 kg) NE (Red Sorghum 1 kg) SorghumBelt(Red Sorghum 1 kg) Central(Red Sorghum 1 kg) NW (White Sorghum 1 kg) Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-1 Jul-1 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, per Kg (SLSH) 2

3 Regional analysis: Juba Regions -Year (21-214) Sep-1 Real Same Year -year avrg (21-214) Imported Commodities s Diesel 1 litre 33,11 27,67 24,143 2, 11,86 4% -9% -2% Imported Red Rice 1kg 19,68 16, 1,214 1,929 7,18 % % -19% Petrol 1 litre 33,93 28,71 26,143 2,37 12,27-3% -11% -2% Sugar 26,78 17,643 1,36 17,87 8,44 1% 1% -33% Vegetable Oil 1 litre 42,62 32,964 28,464 29,87 14,179 % -9% -29% Wheat Flour 1kg 18,48 1, 14,679 1,7 7,432 7% 2% -1% Wheat Grain 1kg 18, Cereal s Red Sorghum 1kg 7,77 8, 8, 8, 3,726 % % 3% White Maize 1kg 9,433 9,27 8,239 7,929 3,692-4% -14% -16% Livestock & Livestock Product s Camel Local Quality (Head) 9,48,114 1,216,429 9,94,643 8,87,143 4,211,97-3% -14% -8% Cattle Local Quality (Head) 3,9,72 4,19,429 3,763,214 3,362,14 1,68,19-11% -18% -14% Fresh Camel Milk 1 litre 19,68 17,393 17,946 19,714 9,328 1% 13% % Goat Export Quality (Head) 1,491,48 1,434,17 1,21,893 1,189,286 68,67-2% -17% -2% Goat Local Quality (Head) 964,91 86,893 79,36 821, ,918 3% -% -1% Charcoal kg 79,881 91,429 76,36 8,714 4,893 12% -6% 7% Cowpeas 1 kg 22,329 22,72 2,17 2,143 9,33 % -11% -1% Unskilled Labor Wage Rate 87,13 8,36 92,37 1,119 47,782 8% 18% 1% Firewood Bundle 9,171 11,87 7,214 8,286 3,863 1% -3% -1% Local Sesame Oil 1 litre 78,393 86,464 6,964 67,286 32,79 2% -22% -14% Exchange Rate (Somali Shilling per USD) 24,911 21,236 22,864 22,714 1,763-1% 7% -9% Wage (Daily)/ Cereal (Maize(Kg)) % 44% 3% Local Goat (Head)/ Cereal (Maize(Kg)) % 12% -1% Indices Consumer Index % -13% - Figure 6: Trends in Cereal s Figure 7: Trends in Wage Rates and Relative Purchasing Power 2, 2 Cereal (Maize) 12, /Cereal TOT 2, 1, 2 1, 1, 8, 6, 4, 1 1 Relative Purchasing power wage to cereal (Kg/daily Wage), 2, 8, 6, 4, 2, Figure 8: Imported Commodity s Compared to Exchange Rate Figure 9: Goat Local Quality per Unit (SoSh) Figure 1: Exchange Rate Figure 11: Water Drum (2 litres) 3

4 Regional analysis: Sorghum Belt Regions (Bay, Bakool, Gedo and Hiran) -Year (21-214) Sep-1 Real Same Year -year avrg (21-214) Imported Commodities s Diesel 1 litre 33,81 33,989 27,364 27,477 13,41 % -19% -19% Imported Red Rice 1kg 21,183 18,386 17,91 18,636 8,813 6% 1% -12% Petrol 1 litre 33,776 33,977 29,4 29,273 13,9 1% -14% -13% Sugar 2,638 19,464 17,7 19,68 9,19 7% -2% -26% Vegetable Oil 1 litre 4,32 39,727 33,9 3,49 16,834 4% -11% -22% Wheat Flour 1kg 19,613 18,136 17,364 18,23 8,79 7% 2% -6% Wheat Grain 1kg 11,9 17,2 18,62 21, 9,943 13% 22% 76% Cereal s Red Sorghum 1kg 9,211 1,3 8,64 8, 3,96 % -18% -8% White Maize 1kg 1,88 1,764 8,917 9,264 4,33 4% -14% -8% Livestock & Livestock Product s Camel Local Quality (Head) 11,87,22 13,4, 12,71, 12,8, 6,18,663-1% -3% 6% Cattle Local Quality (Head) 3,44,143 3,93,12 3,77, 3,3,714 1,69,82-6% -11% % Fresh Camel Milk 1 litre 23,992 24,9 18,7 19,1 9,3 3% -23% -2% Goat Export Quality (Head) 1,61,436 1,669,773 1,72, 1,, 717,273 -% -1% -7% Goat Local Quality (Head) 1,46,24 1,32, ,9 948,341 43,443-4% -8% -9% Charcoal kg 143,84 1,2 19,37 176,12 84,132 11% 13% 22% Cowpeas 1 kg 3,91 29,864 24,99 24,886 11,82 % -17% -17% Unskilled Labor Wage Rate 13,49 98, ,273 19,2 2,149-3% 11% 6% Firewood Bundle 6,219 6,614 6,4 6,4 3,3 % -1% % Local Sesame Oil 1 litre 81,11 94,96 74,893 74,7 3,649 % -21% -8% Exchange Rate (Somali Shilling per USD) 2,82 21,341 22,86 22,72 1,768 1% 6% -9% Wage (Daily)/ Cereal (Sorghum(Kg)) % 3% 8% Local Goat (Head)/ Cereal (Sorghum(Kg)) % 12% -8% Indices Consumer Index % -13% - Figure 12: Trends in Cereal s Figure 13:Trends in Wage Rates and Relative Purchasing Power 3, 2, Gedo Cereal (Red Sorghum) Bakool Cereal (Red Sorghum) Bay Cereal (Red Sorghum) Hiraan Cereal (White Sorghum) 14, 12, /Cereal TOT 2 2 2, 1, 1, 1, 8, 6, 4, 1 1 Relative Purchasing power wage to cereal (Kg/daily Wage), 2, 8, 6, 4, 2, Figure 14: Imported Commodity s Compared to Exchange Rate Figure 1: Goat Local Quality per Unit (SoSh) Figure 16: Exchange Rate Figure 17: Water Drum (2 litres) 4

5 Regional analysis: Shabelle Regions -Year (21-214) Sep-1 Real Same Year -year avrg (21-214) Imported Commodities s Diesel 1 litre 3,648 26,833 23,667 23,12 1,96-2% -14% -2% Imported Red Rice 1kg 19,38 1,833 1, 1,333 7,233 2% -3% -19% Petrol 1 litre 32,43 3,28 28,28 27,83 13,92-2% -9% -14% Sugar 23,2 16, 1,2 1,42 7,333 2% -6% -34% Vegetable Oil 1 litre 3,49 28,917 27,83 24,667 11,697-9% -1% -3% Wheat Flour 1kg 18,26 16,792 16,2 16,167 7,632-1% -4% -11% Wheat Grain 1kg 16,24 27, 17, 17, 8,3 % -37% % Cereal s Red Sorghum 1kg 11,182 11,17 9,767 1,14 4,689 3% -13% -1% White Maize 1kg 6,72 7,13 6,87 6,42 3,29 7% -13% -2% Livestock & Livestock Product s Camel Local Quality (Head) 16,141,166 16,4, 18,1, 18,7, 8,641,89-2% 1% 12% Cattle Local Quality (Head),21,8,69,,866,,64, 2,697,224-4% -1% 12% Fresh Camel Milk 1 litre 2,26 2,2 19,167 23,62 11,199 23% 17% 17% Goat Export Quality (Head) 1,84,7 1,996,2 1,983,12 1,99,62 91,914 % % 8% Goat Local Quality (Head) 1,271,716 1,42,917 1,38,833 1,341, ,1-3% -8% 6% Charcoal kg 121,41 111,78 119, ,611 71,41 2% 34% 23% Cowpeas 1 kg 26,411 23,2 19,16 19,147 9,7 % -17% -28% Unskilled Labor Wage Rate 68,399 73,833 7,417 77,667 37,44 3% % 14% Firewood Bundle 6,49 7,83 6,2 6,78 3,18 7% -% 11% Local Sesame Oil 1 litre 64,23 74,9 2,12 48,833 23,24-6% -3% -24% Exchange Rate (Somali Shilling per USD) 2,3 21,29 22,48 22,492 1,67 % 4% -11% Wage (Daily)/ Cereal (Maize(Kg)) % 2% 2% Local Goat (Head)/ Cereal (Maize(Kg)) % 6% 4% Indices Consumer Index % -13% - 2, 2, 1, 1, Figure 18: Trends in Cereal s Cereal (Maize) Figure 19: Trends in Wage Rates and Relative Purchasing Power 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, /Cereal TOT Relative purchasing power wage to cereal (kg/daily wage), 2, 8, 6, 4, 2, Figure 2: Imported Commodity s Compared to Exchange Rate Figure 21: Goat Local Quality per Unit (SoSh) Figure 22: Exchange Rate Figure 23: Water Drum (2 litres)

6 Regional analysis: Banadir Region -Year (21-214) Sep-1 Real Same Year -year avrg (21-214) Imported Commodities s Diesel 1 litre 26,42 21,22 17,98 17,292 8,17-4% -19% -3% Imported Red Rice 1kg 17,741 13,12 12,417 12,21,888 1% -% -29% Petrol 1 litre 2,6 21,28 21,417 21,417 1,143 % 1% -16% Sugar 21,372 14, 12,833 12,917 6,78 1% -8% -4% Vegetable Oil 1 litre 32,928 24,167 22,37 22,12 1,481-1% -8% -33% Wheat Flour 1kg 1,699 13,896 12,7 12,833 6,37 1% -8% -18% Wheat Grain 1kg 1,611 1,433 12,833 11,7,19-8% 13% 11% Cereal s Red Sorghum 1kg 8,42 8,621 7,47 7,47 3,47 % -13% -11% White Maize 1kg 8,646 1,633 8,138 8,283 3,861 2% -22% -4% Livestock & Livestock Product s Camel Local Quality (Head) 14,, Cattle Local Quality (Head) 4,, Fresh Camel Milk 1 litre 21,1 22,48 22,917 22,917 1,86 % 2% 9% Goat Export Quality (Head) 2,327, - 2,42, 2,7, 992,267-14% - -11% Goat Local Quality (Head) 1,989,87 2,39, 1,7, 1,812, 866,726 7% -24% -9% Charcoal kg 173, ,37 19, ,62 9,37 2% 4% 1% Cowpeas 1 kg 26,33 24,192 2,7 2,667 9,784 % -1% -22% Unskilled Labor Wage Rate 97,18 14, ,83 17,83 1,112-4% 2% 1% Firewood Bundle 7,31 8, 8, 8,2 3,846 3% 3% 13% Local Sesame Oil 1 litre 64,6 73,98 4,98,792 26,82 2% -2% -13% Exchange Rate (Somali Shilling per USD) 24,632 21,338 22,63 22,492 1,67 2% % -9% Wage (Daily)/ Cereal (Maize(Kg)) % 3% 18% Local Goat (Head)/ Cereal (Maize(Kg)) % -3% -11% Indices Consumer Index % -13% - Figure 24: Trends in Cereal s Figure 2: Bakara: Trends in Wage Rates and Relative Purchasing Power 2, 2, Cereal (Maize) 22, 2, 18, /Cereal TOT 3 3 1, 1,, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Relative purchasing power wage to cereal (kg/daily wage) Figure 26: Imported Commodity s Compared to Exchange Rate Figure 27: Goat Local Quality 8, 6, 4, 2, per Unit (SoSh) Figure 28: Exchange Rate Figure 29: Wheat Flour 6

7 Regional analysis: Central Regions 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1,, Cereal (Rice) -Year (21-214) Sep-1 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Real /Cereal TOT Same Year -year avrg (21-214) Imported Commodities s Diesel 1 litre 31,836 27,7 23,3 23,3 12,2 % -16% -27% Imported Red Rice 1kg 23,398 18, 17, 16,8 9,22-1% -7% -28% Petrol 1 litre 28,6 2, 24,3 24,6 13,28 1% -2% -14% Sugar 27,74 19,8 18,1 18, 9,71 % -9% -33% Vegetable Oil 1 litre 47,36 39, 3,2 34, 18,633-2% -12% -27% Wheat Flour 1kg 19,21 14,9 1,4 1,4 8,262 % 3% -19% Wheat Grain 1kg 16,92 26, 17,12 17, 9,131-1% -3% 2% Cereal s Red Sorghum 1kg 13,96 12, 11, 1,7,737-7% -1% -18% White Maize 1kg 13,696 14, 13,1 13,2 7,68 1% -6% -4% Livestock & Livestock Product s Camel Local Quality (Head) 9,797, 11,2, 12,37, 12,6, 6,868,771 1% 1% 29% Cattle Local Quality (Head) 2,8, Fresh Camel Milk 1 litre 33,686 29, 32,4 29,9 16,136-8% 3% -11% Goat Export Quality (Head) 1,1,18 1,434,37 1,342, 1,337, 726,14 % -7% -11% Goat Local Quality (Head) 1,1,74 1,3, 96, 1,6, 46,12 4% -2% -13% Charcoal kg 18,63 183, 13, 16, 84,879 2% -1% -1% Cowpeas 1 kg 28,28 22,4 21,9 22,3 12,9 2% % -21% Unskilled Labor Wage Rate 8,46 84, 92, 92, 49,8 % 1% 8% Firewood Bundle 3,9 33, 34,8 33,8 18,23-3% 2% -4% Local Sesame Oil 1 litre 89,78 84,3 87, 87, 47,412 % 4% -3% Exchange Rate (Somali Shilling per USD) 24,814 2,89 22,2 22,36 12,41 1% 7% -1% Wage (Daily)/ Cereal (Rice(Kg)) 3 - % % 67% Local Goat (Head)/ Cereal (Rice(Kg)) % % 18% Camel (Head)/Cereal (Kg) % 23% 68% Indices Consumer Index % -% - Figure 3: Trends in Cereal s Figure 31: Trends in wage rates and relative purchasing power Relative purchasing power wage to cereal (kg/daily wage) Figure 32: Imported Commodity s Compared to Exchange Rate Figure 33: Goat Local Quality 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, per Unit (SoSh) Figure 34: Exchange Rate Figure 3: Water Drum (2 litres) 7

8 Regional analysis: Northeast Regions -Year (21-214) Sep-1 Real Same Year -year avrg (21-214) Imported Commodities s Diesel 1 litre 26,88 23,213 17,688 16,438 7,24-7% -29% -39% Imported Red Rice 1kg 18,7 1,62 14,37 14,188 6,24-1% -9% -24% Petrol 1 litre 24,222 2,63 19,938 19,37 8,9-3% -6% -2% Sugar 24,27 17,688 1,7 1,463 6,771-2% -13% -36% Vegetable Oil 1 litre 4,9 32,7 31, 3,7 13,63-1% -6% -2% Wheat Flour 1kg 17,26 14,813 13,87 13,688,982-1% -8% -21% Wheat Grain 1kg 2,42 22, 2, 2, 9,9 % -7% -19% Cereal s Red Sorghum 1kg 21,691 22, 21,62 22,37 9,842 3% -1% 3% White Maize 1kg 2,4 2, 2, 21, 9,231 % 2% % Livestock & Livestock Product s Camel Local Quality (Head) 14,94,499 1,718,7 1,3, 14,412, 6,43,711-6% -8% -4% Cattle Local Quality (Head) 7,82, 8,62, 9,12, 8,4, 3,732,217-8% -3% 7% Fresh Camel Milk 1 litre 38,9 3,4 39,42 4,21 17,682 1% 13% 3% Goat Export Quality (Head) 1,2,9 1,, 1,468,7 1,37, 61,84-6% -8% -11% Goat Local Quality (Head) 1,381,92 1,33, 1,31, 1,218,12 41,141-7% -8% -12% Charcoal kg 36, ,37 366,87 372,62 16,466 2% -6% 4% Cowpeas 1 kg 38,47 31, 28, 29,667 13,82 4% -4% -23% Unskilled Labor Wage Rate 12,2 13, 129, ,2 8,217 1% 1% 9% Firewood Bundle 42,37 3,12 4, 46,12 2,394 2% -13% 9% Local Sesame Oil 1 litre 89,62 98,469 96,2 96,7 42,888 1% -2% 8% Exchange Rate (Somali Shilling per USD) 24,711 2,87 21,263 21,6 9,478 1% 3% -13% Wage (Daily)/ Cereal (Rice(Kg)) % 13% % Local Goat (Head)/ Cereal (Rice(Kg)) % 1% 13% Indices Consumer Index % -1% - Figure 36: Trends in Cereal s Figure 37: Trends in Wage Rates and Relative Purchasing Power 3, 14, /Cereal TOT 2 Cereal (Rice) 2, 12, 2 2, 1, 1, 1, 8, 6, 4, 1 1 Relative purchasing power wage to cereal (kg/daily wage), 2, Figure 38: Imported Commodity s Compared to Exchange Rate Figure 39: Goat Local Quality 8, 6, 4, 2, per Unit (SoSh) Figure 4: Exchange Rate Figure 41: Water Drum (2 litres) 8

9 Regional analysis: Northwest Regions -Year (21-214) Sep-1 Real Same Year -year avrg (21-214) Imported Commodities s Diesel 1 litre 6,487 7,12 6,36,9 4,66-6% -16% -8% Imported Red Rice 1kg 4,983,26,6,11 3,984 1% -3% 3% Petrol 1 litre 6,83 8,34 7,7 7,72 6,7 % -7% 13% Sugar 6,1,84,8,63 4,4-3% -4% -8% Vegetable Oil 1 litre 11,64 12,613 12,6 12,8 1,131 2% 1% 1% Wheat Flour 1kg 4,33 4,46 4,4 3,98 3,81-1% -11% -9% Wheat Grain 1kg 3,263 3,6 3,62 3,62 2,797 % -1% 11% Cereal s White Sorghum 1kg 3,26 4,16 3,74 3,99 3,89 7% -4% 13% Yellow Maize 1kg 3,76 3,8 3,812 3,87 2,997 2% 2% 8% Livestock & Livestock Product s Camel Local Quality (Head) 2,861,346 4,26,333 4,39, 4,277, 3,418,829-3% % 49% Cattle Local Quality (Head) 1,884,93 2,431,87 2,83,333 2,242,292 1,792,124-2% -8% 19% Fresh Camel Milk 1 litre,44,8 6,7 8,6 6,814 29% 49% 6% Goat Export Quality (Head) 422,14 493,77 492, 487, ,416-1% -1% 1% Goat Local Quality (Head) 36, ,3 349,2 37, 296,34 6% 1% 21% Charcoal kg 42,934 8,3 8,3 7,2 4,69-2% -2% 33% Cowpeas 1 kg 9,22 11,12 1,87 9,7 7,693-1% -12% 2% Unskilled Labor Wage Rate 39,81 47,713 1,2 6,2 4,7 1% 18% 4% Firewood Bundle 3,173 3,833 4, 4,67 3, 1% 19% 44% Local Sesame Oil 1 litre 28,22 3,438 34,63 34,688 27,62 2% -2% 23% Exchange Rate (Somaliland Shilling per USD) 6,211 6,9 7, 7,2,911 % 9% 21% Wage (Daily)/ Cereal (Rice(Kg)) % 22% 7% Local Goat (Head)/ Cereal (Rice(Kg)) % 14% 2% Indices Consumer Index % -4% - Figure 42: Trends in Cereal s Figure 43: Trends in Wage Rates and Relative Purchasing Power SLSH 7, 6,, 4, 3, 2, 1, Cereal (Rice) SLSH 6,,, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1,, /Cereal TOT Relative purchasing power wage to cereal (kg/daily wage) Figure 44: Imported Commodity s Compared to Exchange Rate Figure 4: Goat Local Quality 14, 12, 1, per Unit (SLSh) 8, 6, 4, 2, SOMALILAND SHILLINGS PER DOLLAR Figure 46: Exchange Rate Figure 47: Water Drum (2 litres) SlSh SlSh SlSh 9

10 Trends in Livestock Exports Table 1: Berbera Livestock Exports (Number of Heads) Shoats 2,48,136 1,61,83 1,46 341,711 63,17 89,44 1,23,79 1,17,242 1,3,4 1,219,19 1,6,3 2,84,81 3,14,684 3,219,84 2,888,9 3,89,92 3,131,91 Cattle 89,967 63,263 2,973 37,47 84, ,82 148,11 8,631 88,143 8,1 88, 133,21 1,934 19,34 2,87 22,97 132,24 Camel 37,43 16,984 3,473 18,864 21,874,147,69 22,81 14,24 26,1 2,26 92,61 17,281 12,664 7,728 64,78,342 Jan-Sep 21 Figure 48: Berbera Livestock Exports (Number of Heads) Number of Heads 3,6, 3,4, 3,2, 3,, 2,8, 2,6, 2,4, 2,2, 2,, 1,8, 1,6, 1,4, 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, Camel Cattle Shoats YEAR Table 2: Bossaso Livestock Exports (Number of Heads) Jan-Sep 21 Shoats 633,669 71,4 48,83 1,412,4 1,483,49 1,166,48 1,94,89 1,777,283 1,22,8 1,236,77 1,19,44 1,333,478 1,26,3 1,192,197 1,349, ,111 1,441,2 Cattle 36,86 27,64 42,248 3,313 71,328 79,994 91,91 14,9 89,19 78,46 67,38 13,88 99,8 76,43 77,33 87,79 1,939 Camel 1,44 8,177 1,9 9,72 4,29 2,488 26,19 33,724 27,8 27,639 1,331 36,86 4,878 22,288 19,32 12,21 8,862 Figure 49: Bossaso Livestock Exports (Number of Heads) Number of Heads 3,6, 3,4, 3,2, 3,, 2,8, 2,6, 2,4, 2,2, 2,, 1,8, 1,6, 1,4, 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, Camel Cattle Shoats YEAR 1

11 Trends in Cereal Imports Table 3: Total Cereal Imports through Berbera, Bossaso and Mogadishu Ports (Tonnes) * Jan-Sep 21 Rice 63,464 7,687 74, ,6 18, ,67 1,17 198,11 166, ,7 171, ,41 272, ,9 17,868 17,888 14,18 Wheat flour,176 78, 134,42 128, ,442 11, 169,83 178,34 176, ,28 24, ,8 28, , ,8 284,23 216,3 Pasta 8,44 11,71 26,72 3,42 29,273 38,749 39,13 2,81 41,331 38,441 86,372 12, , , , ,91 127,718 Figure : Total Cereal Imports (Berbera, Bossaso and Mogadishu) 4, 3, Rice Wheat flour Pasta Cereal Imports in Tonnes 3, 2, 2, 1, 1,, Year * Bosasso and Berbera import data is up to September 21 and Elman (Mogadishu) is up to July 21. Mogadishu data (Elmaan Port) for 213 includes only January -March imports. Technical Partners FSNAU Funding Agencies 11