Cambio climático y. Programa de Investigación en Cambio Climático Coordinador

Transcription

1 Cambio climático y fenómenos extremos Carlos Gay García Carlos Gay García Programa de Investigación en Cambio Climático Coordinador

2 Resumen EPA Projected Change Warmer/fewer cold days/nights; warmer/more hot days/nights over most land areas. Warm spells/heat waves: frequency increases over most land areas Agriculture, forestry Increased yields in colder environments; decreased yields in warmer environments; Projected Impacts by Sector Water resources Effects on water resources relying on snow melt Human health/ mortality Reduced human mortality from decreased cold exposure Reduced yields in warmer Increased water demand; regions due to heat stress Increased risk of heatrelated mortality water quality problems, at key devel. stages; fire e.g., algal blooms danger increase Industry/settlement/s ociety Reduced energy demand for heating; increased demand for cooling; declining air quality in cities; reduced effects of snow, ice etc. Reduction in quality of life for people in warm areas without air conditioning; impacts on elderly and very young; reduced thermoelectric power production efficiency Heavy precipitation events: frequency increases over most areas Damage to crops; soil erosion, inability to cultivate land, water logging of soils Adverse effects on quality Disruption of settlements, Deaths, injuries, of surface and commerce, transport and infectious diseases, groundwater; societies due to flooding; allergies and dermatitis contamination of water pressures on urban and from floods and landslides supply rural infrastructures

3 Projected Change Projected Impacts by Sector Heavy precipitation events: frequency increases over most areas Area affected by drought: increases Number of intense tropical cyclones: increases Damage to crops; soil erosion, inability to cultivate t land, water logging of soils Adverse effects on quality of surface and groundwater; contamination of water supply Land degradation, lower yields/crop damage and More widespread water failure; livestock deaths; stress land degradation Damage to crops; windthrow of trees Incidence of extreme Salinization of irrigation high sea level: and well water increases Power outages cause disruption of public water supply Decreased freshwater availability due to saltwater intrusion Deaths, injuries, infectious diseases, allergies and dermatitis from floods and landslides Increased risk of food and water shortage and wild fires; increased risk of water- and food-borne diseases Disruption of settlements, commerce, transport and societies due to flooding; pressures on urban and rural infrastructures Water shortages for settlements, industry and societies; reduced hydropower generation potentials; potentials for population migration Disruption by flood and Increased risk of deaths, high winds; withdrawal injuries, i water- and of risk coverage in food-borne diseases vulnerable areas by private insurers Costs of coastal Increase in deaths by protection versus costs drowning in floods; of land-use relocation; increase in stress-related t also see tropical disease cyclones above

4 Abrupt Climate Change changes in theearth s orbit a brightening or dimming of the sun melting li or surging ice sheets strengthening or weakening of ocean currents emissions of climate altering gases and particles into the atmosphere

5 Adapted from Alexander et al. (2006).

6 IPCC

7 Escenarios Globales AR4

8 Desastres mas frecuentes Escala global durante Mayores desastres en México durante (millones de dls.) (EM-DAT, 2006) Origen hidrometeorológico (Zuñiga-Bello, 2007) REDESClim, 2011

9 Origen Hidrometeorológico y Climático Junio 2010: Paso del Huracán Alex por Monterrey t al. 2009) (Stahle et Inundaciones y heladas Todo México: Sequías e incendios 2010 REDESClim, 2011

10 México (temperatura anual)

11 México (precipitación anual)

12 DF (temperatura mayo)

13 DF (precipitación anual)

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16 GRACIAS