Drivers in Global Fertilizer Markets

Transcription

1 224 prospects for EU agricultural markets Brussels, 5 December 214 Charlotte Hebebrand Director General, IFA

2 Fertilizers at a glance Overview of IFA Yield developments & grain quality Fertilizer Consumption Link to feedstocks

3 To feed the world, one must first feed the crops NORMAN BORLAUG a few billion people would have to die if we hadn't come up with fertilizer BILL GATES

4 Fertilizers represent an essential ingredient in the drive towards world food security Fertilizers: world s most important humanitarian product

5 IFA is a global association which: Improves the operating environment along the fertilizer supply chain Encourages expertise-sharing among members Promotes efficient and responsible production and application of fertilizer products Develops and disseminates statistics Informs and contributes to public policymaking at an international level

6

7 Fertilizer use, cereal production and food security Source: FAO and IFA

8 Wheat response (yield and protein content) to N fertilizer applications Source: Grant and Bruulsema

9 World fertilizer consumption Million tonnes nutrients TRANSITION ECONOMIES DEVELOPED DEVELOPING 1961 to 212 Source: IFA

10 Fertilizer consumption in Western and Central Europe Million tonnes nutrients % Share in world consumption K 2 O 1 5 P 2 O 5 N 1961 to 212 9% Source: IFA

11 Evolution of cereals + rapeseed production relative to fertilizer-n deliveries in France (1 = 199) = 199 Cereals production + rapeseed (est. 9/13) Fertilizer-N deliveries Development of agricultural production Integrated fertilization Source: SSP and UNIFA

12 Consumption by product in Western and Central Europe 33% 43% 82% 6% Source: IFADATA

13 Fertilizer production and trade in Western and Central Europe PRODUCTION Million tonnes nutrients to 212 K 2 O P 2 O 5 N EXPORTS Million tonnes nutrients to 212 IMPORTS Million tonnes nutrients to 212 Source: IFA

14 Million tonnes ammonia Ammonia capacity related to feedstock WORLD Coal - China Coal- rest of world Natural gas Other EUROPE Other Natural gas /3 of global ammonia capacity is based on natural gas feedstock 3% of global ammonia capacity is based on coal, of which 95% is located in China In Europe, natural gas is the main feedstock, accounting for 92% of ammonia capacity Source: IFA Production and International Trade, 214

15 Urea cash costs Influence of natural gas prices US$/tonne other natural gas cost US$/MMBtu Ammonia and urea cash costs are closely correlated to feedstock prices. The cost of natural gas accounts for 87-95% of the cash cost of ammonia production; and between 78% and 91% of the cast costs of urea production. Source:

16 Natural gas Regional wholesales prices 213 US$/MMBtu NE Asia Europe Asia EECA South Asia America WA Africa Comparative wholesales prices of natural gas show significant disparities between regions. Source: IGU, 214

17 Urea cash costs vs natural gas prices Trend 214 to 215e US$/tonne US Russia China WE_ Zeebrugge Ukraine West Asia Africa Source: US EIA, Azotecon, CICCC, Argus, Yara cost model

18 Nitrogen supply/demand balances Europe Million tonnes nitrogen Supply Demand Source: IFA Production and International Trade, 214

19 Million tonnes products Nitrogen fertilizer imports into Europe: AN CAN Urea NITROGEN FERTILIZER IMPORTS Europe Belarus Russia Ukraine West Asia Americas Africa Other UREA IMPORTS Europe 44% Africa 27% EECA 22% West Asia 7% Source: IFA Production and International Trade, 214

20 Regional urea capacity developments Million tonnes urea West Asia Africa USA Russia Europe Source: IFA Production and International Trade, 214

21 For more information

22 USA: Natural gas industrial prices US$/MMBtu Source : US Energy Information Agency

23 Europe: Natural gas supplies 212 Algeria 9% Qatar 6% Other 4% Indigeneous production 34% Total 56 TWh Norway 23% Russia 24%