Sustainable End-to-End Climate/Flood Forecast Application Through Pilot Projects Showing Measurable Improvements. Base Line Report

Transcription

1 Asian Disaster Preparedness Center Sustainable End-to-End Climate/Flood Forecast Application Through Pilot Projects Showing Measurable Improvements Base Line Report March 2006 A public trust under the Ministry of Water Resources

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3 Table of Contents 1.1 Introduction Methodology Problem Analysis Preparation of Questionnaire/ Checklist Field Survey Data Compilation and Analysis Report Preparation Study Area Rajpur Union Uria Union Kaijuri Union Gazirtek Union Bhekra Union Socio-economic status of pilot unions Livelihood activities Agriculture Fisheries Livestock Infrastructures Flood shelters Water Supply and Sanitation Institutions Natural Hazards and mitigation measures Natural Hazards Causes of Flood and its Effects Affected Mouza / Village Effect of recent extreme flood on agriculture Effect of recent extreme flood on fisheries Effect of recent extreme flood on infrastructure Effect of recent extreme flood on household Present copping strategies/ mitigation measures for flood Early Warning System and preparedness activities for Flood Existing Early Warning System Need Assessment of Community for Early Warning System Possible Activities of the community with Early Warning Dissemination tools for Early Warning System Conclusion and Recommendation

4 List of Tables Table 1: Major cropping pattern in each pilot union...19 Table 3: Water bodies and fisheries production in pilot unions...22 Table 4: Infrastructures in pilot unions...23 Table 6: Existing flood shelter facilities in Rajpur union...25 Table 7: Existing flood shelter facilities in Uria union...26 Table 8: Existing flood shelter facilities in Gazirtek union...27 Table 9: Existing flood shelter facilities in Bekra union...27 Table 10: Percentage (%) of Household Using Different Drinking Water Sources...28 Table 11: Percentage (%) of Household Using Different Toilet Facilities...28 Table 12: Organizations engaged in flood management in pilot unions...29 Table 13: Major Natural Hazards in the Study Area...32 Table 14: Causes of flood and affected mauzas in Kaujuri Union...33 Table 15: Causes of flood and affected mauzas in Rajpur Union...34 Table 16: Causes of flood and affected mauzas in Uria Union...35 Table 17: Causes of flood and affected mauzas in Gazirtek Union...36 Table 18: Causes of flood and affected mauzas in Bekra Union...37 Table 18: Flood affected sectors at each union according to priority...39 Table 19: Ranking and time of flood effect on each sector in study area...40 Table 20: Effect of recent extreme flood on agriculture...41 Table 21: Effect of recent extreme flood on fisheries...42 Table 21: Effect of recent extreme flood on fisheries (Continued)...43 Table 22: Effect of recent extreme flood on infrastructure...43 Table 23: Present copping strategies with flood in different sectors...48 Table 24: Existing Early Warning System in the pilot unions...53 Table 25: Needs of the community for Early Warning System...54 Table 26 : Major activities of the community with different early warning options...55 Table 27: Dissemination tools for Early Warning System in pilot unions

5 List of Figures Figure 1: Methodology of the baseline study...6 Figure 2: Selected pilot unions in context of Bangladesh...8 Figure 3: Study Area: Rajpur Union, Lalmonirhat...9 Figure 4: Study Area: Uria Union, Gaibandha...11 Figure 5: Study Area: Kaijuri Union, Sirajganj...12 Figure 6: Study Area: Gazirtek Union, Faridpur...13 Figure 7: Study Area: Gazirtek Union, Faridpur...15 Figure 8: Livelihood groups in pilot unions...17 Figure 9: Agriculture is the main activity in pilot unions...18 Figure 10: Loom is the special livelihood activity in Kaijuri union...18 Figure 11: Vegetables grown in Homestead area...20 Yield rate (ton/ha)...21 Figure 12: A Cattle farm at homestead in Kaijuri union...23 Figure 13: Tube-well installed by DPHE in Kaijuri union beside the road Figure 14: Time of flood occurrence in the pilot unions...33 Figure 15: Flood affected mauzas in Kaijuri union...34 Figure 16: Flood affected mauzas in Rajpur union...35 Figure 17: Flood affected mauzas in Uria union...36 Figure 18: Flood affected mauzas in Gazirtek union...37 Figure 19: Flood affected mauzas in Bhekra union...38 Figure 20: Average Damage (Tk) per Household in Pilot Union

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7 1.1 Introduction The Climate Forecast Applications in Bangladesh (CFAB) project has been implemented in Bangladesh since November 2000, with the involvement of the Program on Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences (PAOS) at the University of Colorado/ Georgia Institute of Technology (GATECH), Atlanta, USA, with assistance from the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC), Bangkok, Thailand, and supported by the USAID Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (USAID/OFDA). The PAOS/GATECH group has been engaged in research aimed at increasing the lead-time of flood forecasting in Bangladesh, while ADPC has been identifying broader forecast application opportunities and seeking ways to institutionalize CFAB in Bangladesh. The project is being conducting with the active participation of key organizations and institutes which includes the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD), Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB), Department of Agriculture Extension (DAE), Disaster Management Bureau (DMB), Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services (CEGIS), Institute of Water Modeling (IWM), and CARE Bangladesh. The Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre (FFWC), under BWDB, utilized experimental hydrological forecasts provided by CFAB in preparing short-range flood forecasts during the 2003 monsoon. IWM evaluated these forecasts, which were disseminated to selected groups and organizations. The forecast products will be functional in disaster prevention, mitigation and preparedness, local disaster action planning, contingency planning, public awareness, training and facilitating information collection. Forecast applications should consider who the users are, where they are, their information needs, and the information dissemination method. Public awareness, understanding of the warning system, and community participation are key links in the forecast generation - application chain. The aim of the project is to develop a real time flood forecast for Disaster preparedness in Bangladesh and making them functional. There is also need to apply the forecasts in different vulnerable sectors to manage the risks. As farmers and other poor vulnerable communities are constantly affected by floods, it is necessary to translate the climate/flood forecast information in a usable and easily understandable form to make use of them for risk management. Five pilot study areas were selected based on standard criteria for flood forecasting system. The five pilot areas are Kaijuri union of Shahjadpur thana under Sirajganj district, Uria union of Fulchhari thana under Gaibandha district, Rajpur union of Lalmonirhat sadar thana under Lalmonirhat district, Gazirtek union of Char Bhadrasan thana under Faridpur district and Bhekra union of Nagarpur thana under Tangail district. Vulnerability analysis and livelihood profiling has been conducted in five pilot study area to understand the nature and aspects of livelihood groups and their vulnerability to natural hazards in selected project sites. This report presents the summary findings of the analysis. 1.2 Methodology Vulnerability analysis and livelihood profiling was conducted through community consultation 5

8 workshop, household survey and secondary information from government institutions. Before going to the baseline survey, a methodology was developed for the study (Fig. 1). The steps of the study are discussed in the following sections Problem Analysis Community level flood forecasting and early warning system requires information on local livelihoods, characteristics of flood and damage, communication facilities for information dissemination, etc. At this stage, the required information, primary and secondary data are analyzed to meet the objectives of study. Problem Analysis Literature Review Questionnaire / Checklist Preparation for consultation workshop, household survey and secondary information collection Consultation Field Survey Community Workshop Household Survey Information from Organizations Data compilation and Analysis Report Preparation Figure 1: Methodology of the baseline study Preparation of Questionnaire/ Checklist Based on the requirements of the study, several questionnaire and checklist are prepared. A checklist is prepared for community consultation workshop; one questionnaire is prepared for household survey 6

9 and four questionnaires are prepared for agriculture, fisheries, infrastructure and institutional information. Several literatures were reviewed and experts consultation was conducted to develop the questionnaire. All questionnaires and checklist contain major four parts: present status of livelihood, characteristics of flood hazard, information on damage due to recent extreme flood and information on present status and future needs of Early Warning System (EWS). All questionnaires and checklist are given in Annex A Field Survey To collection primary and secondary information, field survey is conducted through community workshop, household survey and questionnaire survey in government and non-government organizations. Community workshop: Three community workshops were conducted at three venues of the union. Two-community workshop was conducted with groups of different livelihood groups and one community workshop was conducted with members of Union Disaster Management Committee (UDMC). For community workshop, livelihood groups were selected according to proportion of household s major occupation given in Population Census, There were participants of different occupation in each workshop. Household Survey Household survey was conducted through structured questionnaire. Total 20 households of different occupational group, classified according to proportion of major occupational group given in Population Census 2001, were selected randomly throughout the study area. Questionnaire survey in organizations Questionnaire survey in government and non-government organizations were conducted for agriculture, fisheries, infrastructures and institutional information. Department of Agriculture, Department of Fisheries, Project Implementation Office, Local Government Engineering Department (LGED), Union Parishad, Upazila Parishad and local NGOs working disaster were visited Data Compilation and Analysis The collected primary and secondary data are compiled and analyzed to generate information and results Report Preparation After data analysis, final report is prepared which contains baseline condition of the socio-economic status, floods, damage; and existing status and future needs of early warning system. 1.3 Study Area The study area has been selected based on biophysical and socioeconomic criteria. Riverine flood 7

10 prone area, climate\ hydrological data availability, accessibility, availability of FWC forecast data has been considered as biophysical criteria. Demand from the user, per capita food grain production, literacy, population exposed to the Flood Hazard has been considered as social criteria. Primarily five districts were selected for pilot operation of the project (Fig. 2). Based on the biophysical and social criteria, one union of each district was selected through consultation workshop, which was conducted at district headquarters with GO and NGO representatives. Figure 2: Selected pilot unions in context of Bangladesh 8

11 1.3.1 Rajpur Union The Rajpur Union is under Lalmonirhat Sadar Upazila of Lalmonirhat district (Fig. 3). The Upazila is located at the foot hill of Himalayas and the river basin of Teesta and Dharla. It comprises 9 wards with 11 mauzas. The area of the Rajpur union is 16 sq. km. Rajpur union is surrounded by the union Harati, Gokunda to the north and east, Khuniagachh union to the west and Kaunia upazila to the south. The population of the Lalmonirhat thana is 2,89,272 (2001) and the Rajpur union is about 15,979 (2001). Figure 3: Study Area: Rajpur Union, Lalmonirhat Most of the land of Rajpur union is medium high land to low land. On the basis of flood depth the high land of the thana is 3239 ha and the medium high land is 4833 and the low land is But in the Rajpur union almost 80% land is low land (Source: Rajpur UP). Rest is medium high land. 9

12 Rangpur meteorological station is the nearest station to Rajpur union, Lalmonirhat. So climate data of Rangpur station has been considered as similar for Rajpur union. The Bangladesh meteorological data at Rangpur station shows that the monthly maximum temperature varies from 28 0 C to 38 0 C and maximum average temperature during monsoon is about 36 0 C. Monthly minimum temperature ranges from 4 0 C to 21 0 C and minimum temperature occurs in December to January is around 4 0 C to 14 0 C. The monthly average relative humidity varies from 40% to 98% in a year. During monsoon it varies from 73% to 91%. The monthly average evaporation in this area is 3.9 mm/day and maximum evaporation occurs in the summer season. Maximum evaporation is 9.5 mm/day, which occurs in the month of July. The annual average rainfall in this area is about 2200 mm/yr. Monthly maximum rainfall was recoded 390 mm in the month of July and the monsoon rain fall was about 1700 mm. Teesta River has flown through the Rajpur union. Very few numbers of ponds are located here. There are wetlands where people do seasonal fishing Uria Union The Uria Union is under Fulchhari thana of Gaibandha district (Fig. 4). The thana is located at the foot hill of Himalayas and the river basin of Teesta and Dharla. It comprises 4 mauzas. The total area of the Uria union is about 23 sq. kilometers including river and charland. Uria union is surrounded by the Kanchi Para union, Udakhali union, Gazaria union and Fazlulpur union of Fulchhari thana. The population of the Fulchhari Upazila is 1,37,795 (2001) and the Uria union is about 14,195 (2001). Most of the land of Uria union is medium high land to low land. There is no very highland in the union. Jamuna River has flown through the Uria union. Most of the parts of the union are charland. The part of the land protected by bandh is medium high land. The area is near Bahadurabad Water Level Station. Where, the maximum river flow, cumec is shown in July. Since there is no meteorological station in Gaibandha district, the meteorological data of the nearest Rangpur station could be used to define the climatic condition of Uria union. Therefore, the climatic condition of Uria union is similar to Rajpur union. There are about 75 numbers of private ponds occupying 1500 acres of land. there is a beel having an area of 286 acres. There is also a khas pond having area of 100 acres (Source: Union parishad). 10

13 Figure 4: Study Area: Uria Union, Gaibandha Kaijuri Union The Kaijuri Union is under Shahjadpur thana of Sirajganj district (Fig. 5). The total area of the Kaijuri union is 45 sq. Km. It comprises 17 mauzas. It is surrounded by the union Porjana, Jalalpur, Sonatani and Gala. The population of the Kaijuri union is about 53,733 (2001). 11

14 Figure 5: Study Area: Kaijuri Union, Sirajganj The nearest meteorological station of Kaijuri union is near the Bogra station, so for climate data of Bogra station has been considered for Kaijuri union. The Bangladesh meteorological data at Bogra station shows that the monthly maximum temperature varies from 27 0 C to 39 0 C. Monthly minimum temperature ranges from 5 0 C to 15 0 C. The monthly average relative humidity varies from 35% to 91% in a year. During monsoon it varies from 71% to 91%. The monthly average evaporation in this area is 4.2 mm/day and maximum evaporation occurs in the summer season. Maximum evaporation is 9.9 mm/day, which occurs in the month of July. The annual average rainfall in this area is about 1700 mm/yr and the monsoon rainfall was about 1400 mm. Most of the land of Kaijuri union is medium low land to very low land. The area is highly flood prone because of its geographical position. There was a flood control embankment which eroded in the Jamuna river and now the area is unprotected to flood. 12

15 1.3.4 Gazirtek Union The Gazirtek Union is under Char Bhadrasan thana of Faridpur district (Fig. 6). It comprises 9 mauzas. The total area of the Gazirtek union is 32 sq. Km. It is surrounded by the union Char Harirampur, Sadrapur and Faridpur Sadar. The population of the Gazirtek union is about 22,544 (source: Population Census 1991). Figure 6: Study Area: Gazirtek Union, Faridpur Climate data of Faridpur station has been considered for the union. The Bangladesh meteorological data at Faridpur station shows that the monthly maximum temperature varies from 27 0 C to 37 0 C. Monthly minimum temperature ranges from 4 0 C to 15 0 C. The monthly average relative humidity varies from 42% to 94% in a year. During monsoon it varies from 70% to 94%. The monthly average evaporation in this area is 3.9 mm/day and maximum evaporation occurs in the summer season. Maximum evaporation is 9.9 mm/day, which occurs in the month of July. The annual average rainfall 13

16 in this area is about 1820 mm/yr and the monsoon rainfall was about 1360 mm. The area is highly flooded prone because of its geographical conditions, u/s water, and poor management practices are the main factors to cause the flood in the area. The Padma River is the only cause of huge flooding and erosion in this union. Flood occurs here normally in the month of July to September Bhekra Union The Bekra Union is under Nagarpur Upazila of Tangail district (Fig. 7). The Upazila is located in the river basin of Jamuna. It comprises 8 mauzas. The area of the Bekra union is 11 sq. km. While the area of the Nagarpur upazila is 263 sq. km. Bekra union is surrounded by the union Nagarpur to the east, union Salimabad to the west, union Gayhata to the north and union Dhubaria to the south. The population of the Nagarpur thana is 2,38,422 (Population Census 1991) and the Bekra union is about 8,502 (Population Census 1991). The land of the Bekra union is plain land. There is no very highland in the union. On the basis of flood depth in this union almost 61% land is low to medium low land (Source: DAE, Nagarpur UP). Rest is moderate high land. Here, in the month of July to September is the severe for flooding and the river Jamuna is the only dominating for this main natural hazard here. There are in total 81 numbers of ponds, one beel in Barapusa Mauz, two khals and one river (Noyai/ Lowhojong) is located here. It has few closed low lands where people do seasonal fishing. Bekra union has vast river basin where farmers do their cultivation. For climate data analysis of Bekra union, Tangail station has been considered. The Bangladesh meteorological data at Tangail station shows that the monthly maximum temperature varies from 27 0 C to 37 0 C and maximum average temperature during monsoon is about 37 0 C. Monthly minimum temperature ranges from 6 0 C to 15 0 C and minimum temperature occurs in December to January. The monthly average relative humidity varies from 57% to 89% in a year. During monsoon it varies from 77% to 89%. The monthly average evaporation in this area is 3.6 mm/day and maximum evaporation occurs in the summer season. Maximum evaporation is 9.1 mm/day. The annual average rainfall in this area is about 1860 mm/yr and the monsoon rainfall was about 1300 mm. 14

17 Figure 7: Study Area: Gazirtek Union, Faridpur 15

18 1.4 Socio-economic status of pilot unions Livelihood activities Major livelihood groups in the pilot unions are classified into eight classes, such as Farmer / Share cropper, Agriculture Labour, Non-Agriculture Labour, Fisherman, Service holder, Business, Loom, Cottage industry, Transport and Others. These classes were defined according to definition of Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. According to people s perception in the community workshops, major livelihood groups in the pilot unions are Farmer/ Share cropper, Agriculture labour and Non-agriculture labour (Figs. 8 and 9). About 50 % households are mainly dependent on agriculture in all pilot unions. But the statistics given in population census of 1991 and 2001 shows deviation from the workshop results. according to population census, the percentage of farmer is much lower than the workshop result in the pilot unions, i.e. 17%, 59% and 38% of household was farmer in Kaijuri, Rajpur and Uria union respectively in 2001; and 43% of household was farmer in Bekra union in Other than agriculture, Non-agriculture labour is one of the main activities, which includes daily labour in industries, construction works, earth works, handling of goods, etc. It is found that about 15% households are in Non-agriculture labour in Kaijuri and Rajpur union but in Uria and Gazirtek union, it is about 9% and 8% respectively (Fig. 8). In Bekra union, more than 80% households are dependent on agriculture where 71% are Farmer/ share cropper and 13% are agriculture labour. However, there is variation in livelihood activities with respect to local opportunities. For instance, there are about 10% of household have Loom and 10% of household have Business as their main income source at Kaijuri union, Sirajganj (Figs. 8 and 10). Shahajadpur thana of Sirajganj district is famous for loom. Business activity in this thana is also related loom and cloths. Therefore, a major portion of households is engaged in this sector. Other than agriculture, there is no special localized activity in Rajpur, Uria, Gazirtek and Bekra unions. In all pilot unions, 2 4 % households are engaged in one of the activities such as Fisherman, service holders, cottage industries, and transport. 16

19 Service 4% Fisher 2% Non- Agriculture Labour 20% Agriculture Labour 15% Business 2% Loom 1% Others 1% Farmer / Share cropper 55% Service 1% Fisher 4% Non- Agriculture Labour 9% Business 3% Agriculture Labour 30% Cottage industry 1% Transport 3% Others 1% Farmer / Share cropper 48% Livelihood groups in Rajpur Union< Lalmonirhat Livelihood groups in Uria Union, Gaibandha Business 10% Loom 10% Cottage industry 1% Transport 1% Others 1% Business 2% Transport 2% Others 18% Service 1% Fisher 1% Non- Agriculture Labour 15% Agriculture Labour 5% Livelihood groups in Kaijuri Union< Sirajganj Farmer / Share cropper 55% Service 2% Fisher 2% Non- Agriculture Labour 8% Livelihood groups in Gazirtek Union, Faridpur Farmer / Share cropper 52% Non- Agriculture Labour 4% Service 4% Fisher 2% Business 4% Transport 1% Others 1% Agriculture Labour 13% Farmer / Share cropper 71% Livelihood groups in Bekra Union, Tangail Figure 8: Livelihood groups in pilot unions 17

20 Figure 9: Agriculture is the main activity in pilot unions Figure 10: Loom is the special livelihood activity in Kaijuri union Agriculture Farmers are engaged in agricultural activities throughout the year in all pilot unions. Information of agriculture was taken from Department of Agriculture Extension (DAE) and farmers of each pilot area. Cropping pattern in the pilot union depends on the local weather and soil characteristics. So, some crops are different in each pilot area, although major rice crops are similar. According to DAE, major cropping pattern in each pilot area is given in Table 1. In Uria union, most of the lands are medium high land low land. In this union, Fallow T. Aman Boro is the major cropping pattern covering about 57 % of cultivable area (Table 1). Other major cropping patterns are Fallow T. Aman Pulse (22% area) and Jute T. Aman Millet (11% area). 18

21 Most of the lands are medium low land low land in Kaijuri union. Therefore, Boro/ B. Aman rice cultivation is preferred to the farmers. Due to the soil and weather condition, Mustard, Groundnut, Mashkalai, Sesame are popular crop in this union. Thus the major cropping pattern is Fallow Fallow Mustard/ Boro covering 43 % cultivable area (Table 1). Other major cropping patterns are Sesame / B. Aman Fallow Mustard and Groundnut Fallow Fallow. Napya grass are also widely cultivated with Mashkalai, which is used as fodder for cattles. Table 1: Major cropping pattern in each pilot union Union Uria Kaijuri Rajpur Gazirtek Bhekra Kharif-I Kharif-II Rabi (March-June) (July-October) (Nov-February) % of area Fallow T. Aman Boro 57 Fallow T. aman Pulse 22 Jute T. Aman Millet 11 Fallow Fallow Mustard - Boro 43 Sesame + B. Aman Fallow Mustard 18 Groundnut Fallow Fallow 11 Fallow T. Aman Boro 62 Jute T. Aman Tobaco 15 Jute T. Aman Wheat 8 B. Aus B. Aman Wheat 25 B. Aus Fallow Wheat 15 B. Aman B. Aman Onion/ Pulses 30 B. Aman Fallow Boro 64 Jute T. Aman Oilseed 21 Jute T. Aman Wheat 10 Source: DAE, Upazila Parishad, 2006 The major land type of Rjpur union is medium high land to low land. Rice and Jute are the main agricultural crop in this area. thus the major cropping patterns are Fallow T. Aman Boro (covering 62% area), Jute T. Aman Tobaco (15 % area) and Jute T. Aman Tobacco (8 % area) (Table 1). Tobaco is special crop grown in this northern region of Bangladesh. Gazirtek union comprises mainly char lands. So depending on the soil and weather condition, major crops grown in Gazirtek union are Rice, Wheat, Pulses, Sugarcane and Jute. thus the major cropping pattern in Gazirtek union is B. Aus B. Aman Wheat (25% area), B. Aman B. Aman Onion/ Pulses (30% area) and B, Aus Fallow Wheat (15% area) (Table 1). Bekra union is regularly flooded every year. thus the major cropping pattern adopted in this area are B. Aman Fallow Boro (64% area), Jute T. Aman Oilseed/ Wheat (31% area) (Table 1). Beside the major crops, vegetables are grown in field and homestead in all pilot unions (Fig. 11). Most common vegetables are cucumber, pui shak, lal shak, carrot, tomato, potato, etc. 19

22 Figure 11: Vegetables grown in Homestead area Yield of a crop is not same in all pilot unions. It varies due to soil condition, weather and growing season. Yield of major crops in all pilot unions is given in Table 2. average yield rate of different crops are collected from Upazila DAE office. The yield rate shows that the crop production rate is similar to national crop production rate. 20

23 Table 2: Yield of major crop in pilot unions Union Uria Kaijuri Rajpur Gazirtek Bhekra Name of crop Cultivated Area (ha) Yield rate (ton/ha) National Production rate of different crops in (BBS, 2004) Yield rate Crops (ton/ha) Jute T. Aman T. Boro B. Aman 1.26 Pulse T. Aman (Local) 1.55 Mustard T. Aman (HYV) 0.25 Boro Boro (Local) 1.95 B. Aman Boro (HYV) 3.39 Groundnut B. Aus (Local) 1.19 Boro B. Aus (HYV) 2.07 T Aman Wheat 1.95 Wheat Potato (HYV) Maize (HB) Maize 4.82 Potato (HYV) Jute 1.17 Jute Ground nut 1.31 Mustard Mustard 0.75 Sugarcane Sugarcane 39.6 Tobacco Tobacco 1.27 B. Aus Onion 5.24 Wheat Pulse 0.79 T Aman Onion Pulses Boro Boro T-Aman B-Aman Jute Wheat Mustard Source: Department Agricultural Extension, Fisheries Since the pilot areas are flood plain of Jamuna river, they comprise rivers, khals, ponds and natural depressions. These water bodies are rich in fisheries and supports livelihoods of the locality for earnings, irrigation to crop field and domestic water supply. Major fisheries species in ponds and wetlands of the pilot areas are Silver carp, Bata musa, Sharpunti, Catla, Rui, Taki, gochi baim, punti, tengra, gura chingri, kholisha, etc. Majro fisheries in rivers are Katchki, Ghero, Bele, Boirali, Ilish, Chingri, Ayeer, Boal, Catla, etc. Area, number/ length of water bodies anf fishreis production in each pilot unions are given in Table 3. 21

24 Fisheries production is higher in Pond under culture fishery in all-pilot unions than the other water bodies (Table 3). However the fish production in natural water bodies could be higher than the estimated production. Table 3: Water bodies and fisheries production in pilot unions Water Bodies Union Parameter Ponds under Ponds under natural Beel Khal River culture fishery fishery Number Gazirtek Kaijuri Uria Rajpur Bekra Length in km Area (ha) Prod. Rate (Ton/ha/yr) Annual Prod. (Tk/yr) 62,36,515-17,56,763 42, ,58,104 Number Length in km Area (ha) Prod. Rate (Ton/ha/yr) Annual Prod. (Tk/yr) 1,50,000 2,80,000 45,000 60,000 50,000 Number Length in km Area (ha) Prod. Rate (Ton/ha/yr) Annual Prod. (Tk/yr) 12,04, ,00,000 Number Length in km Area (ha) Prod. Rate (Ton/ha/yr) Annual Prod. (Tk/yr) 25,00,000 3,00,000-3,60,000 26,00,000 Number Length in km Area (ha) Prod. Rate (Ton/ha/yr) Annual Prod. (Tk/yr) 51,00,000 2,30,000 1,90,000 1,30,000 1,60,000 Source: Upazila Parishad, Livestock Common livestock and poultry are grown in most of the households in pilot areas. Cattle, goat, chicken, duck, ram, buffalo are common in the area. Cattle farming are popular in Kaijuri unio due to the Milk Vita milk processing industry at Baghabari, Sirajganj (Fig. 12). Therefore, fodder crop like Mashkalai, Napya grass production is also popular in Kaijuri union. 22

25 Figure 12: A Cattle farm at homestead in Kaijuri union Infrastructures Road/ communication, educational, health and social infrastructures are important in a community. Information on these infrastructures of each union is taken from Union Parishad and Upazila Parishad, which are presented in the following Table 4. Table 4: Infrastructures in pilot unions Infrastructures Rajpur Union Kaijuri Union Kancha road (km) Uria Union 26 Gazirtek Union Bhekra Union Paved road (km) Rail road (km) Embankment (km) Flood shelter (no.) Flood Control structure (Spur) Primary school (no.) High school (no.) College (no.) Modrasa (no.) Mosque (no.)

26 Infrastructures Rajpur Union Kaijuri Union Uria Union Gazirtek Union Temple/ Girja (no.) Bhekra Union Club (no.) Market (Hat/Bazar) (no.) Hospital (no.) Non-govt. Health clinic (no.) Govt. health clinic (no.) Bridge/ culvert (no.) Fire service (no.) Post Office Source: Union and Upazila Parishad, Flood shelters There are different types of flood shelter exist in the pilot unions, such as permanent flood shelter, institutions, embankments, etc. Beside these, people stay at the roof of their own houses or at relative s houses or on boat during flood. Participants at the community workshops expressed their views about their preference, acceptability and woman facility of the flood shelters, which are presented in Tables 5, 6, 7 and 8. At Kaijuri union, there is no permanent flood shelter. Most of people prefer to stay at their own houses or at their relative s house or stay on the embankment. There is small number of educational institutes and they are not in good condition to serve the flood victims during flood (Table 5). Boat is the last option for the people. There is no special toilet facility for woman in shelters, except in the houses. The embankment can support 1000 household (HH), educational institutes can support 200 household. Although own house, embankment or relative s house are accepted to the people as flood shelter, they want permanent flood shelters with all facilities. 24

27 Table 5: Existing flood shelter facilities in Kaijuri union Type of shelter Preference rank Capacity Acceptability Women Facilities Recommendation Permanent flood shelter Institution (school/ college/ Madrasa premises) HH Embankment HH Y N Roof of own house 1 Y Y Y N - Increase the capacity. - Separate facility for Women i.e. Toilet, Room, Tube-well Make Tin shaded room. Relative s house HH Y Y Boat 5 50 HH N N There is a permanent flood shelter in Rajpur union with capacity of 100 households (Table 6). Also educational institutes, embankment and relative s house are used as flood shelter. Most of the flood victims stay on the embankment. Although the permanent flood shelter and education institutes have low capacity than the embankment, they got higher preference to the people. However, in all type of shelter, there is no extra toilet facility for women, except houses. People suggested to increase number, capacity and facilities of flood shelter. Table 6: Existing flood shelter facilities in Rajpur union Type of shelter Permanent Preference rank Capacity Acceptability Women Facilities flood shelter Y N Institution (school/ college/ Madrasa premises) Y N Embankment 3 >5000 Y N Relative s house 4 - Y Y Recommendation - Increase the capacity. - Separate facility for Women i.e. Toilet, Room, Tube-well - Increase the capacity. - Separate facility for Women i.e. Toilet, Room, Tube-well Make Tin shaded room. - Source: Upazila Parishad,

28 At Uria union, there is no permanent flood shelter. Most of the flood victims prefer stay on the embankment, educational institutes (Table 7). Although people accepted the flood shelters, except relative s houses, there is no special toilet facility for woman. People suggested to increase number, capacity and facilities of flood shelter. Table 7: Existing flood shelter facilities in Uria union Type of shelter Preference rank Capacity Acceptability Women Facilities Recommendation Permanent flood shelter - Highly desirable Institution (school/ college/ Madrasa premises) 2 2 primary school: HH Y - Increase the capacity of school building 1 high school HH 1 madrasa: HH Embankment 1 7 km: 2000 HH Y - Use common facilities Relative s house 3 Few members of several families Others (specify) N - Use in family manner - Regular maintenance of embankment Source: Upazila Parishad, 2006 Similar to Uira union, there is no permanent flood shelter at Gazirtek and Bekra union. Most of the flood victims prefer stay on the embankment, educational institutes or in the roof of their own houses (Table 8 and 9). Other than relative s houses, People accepted the flood shelters though there is no special toilet facility for woman. People demand improved flood shelter with all facilities. 26

29 Table 8: Existing flood shelter facilities in Gazirtek union Type of shelter Permanent flood shelter Institution (school/ college/ Madrasa premises) Preference rank Capacity (HH) Acceptability Women Facilities Embankment Y N Y Y Recommendation Need at least one flood shelter at Hossainpur or Hajiganj Relative s house N Y Others (specify) Table 9: Existing flood shelter facilities in Bekra union Type of shelter Preference rank Capacity Acceptability Women Facilities Recommendation Permanent flood shelter Institution (school/ college/ Madrasa premises) 4 50 H.H Y Y Embankment H.H Y Relative s house 3 10 H.H Y Y Neighbor s house / Roof of own house H.H Y Y Water Supply and Sanitation Water supply and sanitation in an area is essential for health safety of the local people. The source of drinking water in the pilot unions is mainly tube-well, which are installed by the people themselves or by DPHE (Fig. 13). Pond water is used by some poor people. According to population census, mo st of the household in the pilot unions use tubewell for drinking water (Table 10). Although people use tubewell for drinking water but most of them prefer pond water for other domestic purposes. Sanitation (especially toilets) facilities in the pilot study areas are not remarkable. According to population census 1991 and 2001, most of the household do not use sanitary toilets (Table 11). The scenario is worst in Uria and Rajpur union where most of the people do not use any kind of toilet. 27

30 Figure 13: Tube-well installed by DPHE in Kaijuri union beside the road. Table 10: Percentage (%) of Household Using Different Drinking Water Sources Union Percentage (%) of Household Using Different Drinking Water Sources Tap Tube well Well Pond Other Kaijuri (2001) Rajpur (2001) Uria (2001) Gazirtek (1991) Bhekra (1991) Source: Population Census 1991 and 2001 Table 11: Percentage (%) of Household Using Different Toilet Facilities Union Percentage (%) of Household Using Different Toilet Facilities Sanitary Other None Kaijuri (2001) Rajpur (2001) Uria (2001) Gazirtek (1991) Bhekra (1991) Source: Population Census 1991 and

31 1.4.8 Institutions Information on the non-government organizations and Union Disaster Management Committee (UDMC), engaged in flood related management activities, is collected from the pilot unions. A good number of local and national organizations are engaged in flood management, i.e. in prevention, preparedness, response and recovery stages. A list of the institutions and their programmes is given in Table 12. Table 12: Organizations engaged in flood management in pilot unions Union Organizations Programme Union Disaster Management Committee (UDMC) - Inform All NGO s - Inform Government office Rajpur RDRS - 6 Disaster Management Committee working in the Union - Arrange training about flood preparation. - Helps during Flood. - Arrange miking during flood. ESDO - Volunteer training OVA - Rescue people with large boat during flood. - Helps people to rise up their house base. - Making sanitary latrine. - Helps people with medicine - Install high tube well - Give relief. Chinnomukul - Programme just started. Uria Union Disaster Management Committee (UDMC) Gano Unnyan Kendra (GUK) - Aware the local people regarding the flooding event through miking - Arrange boat to rescue the affected people - Homestead raising by homestead owner and give him equivalent wages - Arrangement of Flood Shelter - Celebrate Disaster Preparedness Day - Arrange awareness building folk song - Arrange popular theatre - Arrange mobile film show - Orientation program on pre-, during-, and post flood activities 29

32 Union Organizations Programme Gazirtek Samaj Kallyan Songstha (SKS) - Homestead raising - Establishment of Flood Shelter - Development of graveyard - Celebrate Disaster Preparedness Day - Arrange awareness building folk song - Arrange popular theatre - Arrange mobile film show - Orientation program on pre-, during-, and post flood activities PROSHIKA - Aware the local people regarding the flooding event Union Disaster Management Committee (UDMC) - Distribution of winter clothes - Arrange child food - Medical support - Aware the local people regarding the flooding event through miking - Arrange boat to rescue the affected people FDA - Disaster preparedness awareness - Early warning before hazard - Meeting with local govt.& other organization - Tube well water test for arsenic - Construct house after flood, erosion, cyclone / hazard - Strengthen rights of land less people for using khash land - Emergency relief distribution (Food) AKK - Community base discussion about flood and erosion/ hazard - Training, workshop and awareness programme on disaster management & risk reduction - Discussion about flood forecasting - Meeting with local govt.& other organization - Rescue the vulnerable people - Food support during severity of flood / hazard 30

33 Union Organizations Programme BSDS - Community base discussion about flood and erosion/ hazard - Food security to vulnerable and build awareness during flood / drought - Discussion about flood forecasting - Arsenic mitigation activities - Tube well water test for arsenic - Interest free credit support - Treatment of arsenic affected Patient - Employment opportunity - Rescue the vulnerable people - Food distribution with minimum price during flood - Information update to radio and television about current status of disaster prone areas. Kaijuri Bhekra Union Disaster Management Committee (UDMC) Manab Mukti Sangstha (MMS) CEGIS - Aware the local people regarding the flooding event through miking - Inform Upazila parishad and local organizations NGO s and Government office - Arrange relief for the affected people - Prepare first aid medical team for the injured people - Relief work during flood hazard - Housing material distribution after flood/ erosion/ storm - Interest free credit support - Awareness programme on disaster management and risk reduction 31

34 1.5 Natural Hazards and mitigation measures Natural Hazards All the pilot study areas are disaster prone area. Major natural hazards prevailing in the study areas are identified and ranked as per people s perception (See Table 13). Since the study areas are containing similar topography (flood plain of Jamuna river), major hazards occurring in the areas are also similar. In most cases, river erosion has got the first priority among all hazards and then flood. Storm/ tornado, hail storm and drought got third priority in Kaijuri, Uria, Rajpur and Gazirtek union respectively. Although river erosion got the priority than flood, both hazards are related to water level and movement in rivers. So forecasting on water level in river would be useful for preparedness / mitigation measures for both flood and river erosion. Table 13: Major Natural Hazards in the Study Area Name of Hazard Kaijuri union Rajpur union Ranking Uria union Gazirtek union River Erosion Bhekra union Flood Drought Hail Storm Storm/ Tornado Disease of Domestic Animals 5 Crop Disease 4 Heavy Rainfall Thunderbolt 9 Arsenic 10 Fog 5 5 Sedimentation 6 Cold 5 Famine 6 Heat wave 8 Note: Blank cells represents the hazard does not occur in the union Causes of Flood and Extent The causes of flood vary with the land type, topography, hydrology and drainage system of the area. in the study areas, two main causes of flood were identified: flood due to river water and flood due to heavy rain. Flood affected mauzas of each union and seasonality of flood were identified through workshops. The affected areas are classified into high, medium and low effect classes. The flooding season in all pilot areas is shown in Figure

35 Kaijuri union under Shahajadpur thana of Sirajganj district is affected by riverine flood. Flood occur in the area mainly during July October (Asar Ashwin). The affected mauzas are shown Table 14 and Figure 15, according their rank of effect. Union Rajpur Uria Kaijuri Gazirtek Bhekra Duration of Flood (Month) APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV Figure 14: Time of flood occurrence in the pilot unions Table 14: Causes of flood and affected mauzas in Kaujuri Union Causes of floods Ranking Affected Mouza / Village Seasonality Riverine flood High Pathalia Para, Bhat para, Gudhibari, Jagtala, Arra, Kharua, Maukari, Kachua, Dadanbari, Purba char panchil, Pashchim char panchil July October Medium Gopalpur, Joypur, Hat Panchil, Kaijuri, Bhat Dighalia (Asar Ashwin) Low 33

36 Figure 15: Flood affected mauzas in Kaijuri union Rajpur union under Lalmonirhat Sadar thana of Lalmonirhat district is affected by riverine flood. Flood occur in the area mainly during July September (Asar Vadro). The affected mauzas are shown Table 15 and Figure 16, according their rank of effect. Table 15: Causes of flood and affected mauzas in Rajpur Union Causes of floods Ranking Affected Mouza / Village Seasonality Riverine flood High Medium Rajpur, Tajpur, Parulia, Bhutnath (No Settlement exist), Madhuram Saranjami Kholaighat, Kismat Chinatali, Kholaighat, Araji Chinatali, Tilak Kaunia. July September (Asar Vadro) Low Changra 34

37 Figure 16: Flood affected mauzas in Rajpur union Uria union under Fulchhari thana of Gaibandha district is affected by riverine flood. Flood occur in the area mainly during July September (Asar Vadro). The affected mauzas are shown Table 16 and Figure 17, according their rank of effect. Table 16: Causes of flood and affected mauzas in Uria Union Causes of floods Ranking Affected Mouza / Village Seasonality Riverine flood High Medium Ratanpur, Uria, Kabilpur Kalasona July September; sudden flood occur 1st decade of October (Asar Vadro) July September (Asar Vadro) Low 35

38 Figure 17: Flood affected mauzas in Uria union Gazirtek union under Char Bhadrasan thana of Faridpur district is affected by riverine flood. Flood occurs in the area mainly during July September (Asar Vadro). The affected mauzas are shown Table 17 and Figure 18, according their rank of effect. Table 17: Causes of flood and affected mauzas in Gazirtek Union Causes of floods Ranking Affected Mouza / Village Seasonality (Months) Riverine flood Heavy rain fall flood High Medium Low High - Medium Low - Hossainpur, Hajiganj, Charamarapur, Gazirtek Char-sultanpur, Ajodhya Char-sultanpur (Partly) Gazirtek July September (Asar Vadro) 36

39 Figure 18: Flood affected mauzas in Gazirtek union The Bekra union is also affected by riverine flood during monsoon. The affected mauzas are shown Table 18 and Figure 19, according their rank of effect. Table 18: Causes of flood and affected mauzas in Bekra Union Type of floods Rankin (High/ Medium /Low) Affected Mouza / Village Seasonality (Months) Riverine flood High Bara Pusa, Bhalkutia, Konabari July - September (Sraban - Bhadra) Medium Bir Baratia, Bekra, Musuria July - September (Sraban - Bhadra) Low Naogaon (Nabagram), Satgachha August - September (Bhadra) 37

40 Figure 19: Flood affected mauzas in Bhekra union Different sectors are affected by flood in each union. All the affected sectors are ranked in the community workshops. Priority of affected sectors is almost similar in all unions. The most affected sector is agriculture in all unions (See Table 18). But the priority of other sector varies with location of study area. For instance, in Kaijuri union, loom, communication, household and drinking water sources got the higher priority than sanitation, health and life, business, fisheries, etc. this is due to the fact that there are a large portion of people dependent on loom, next to agriculture, and communication facilities and drinking water sources are limited in Kaijuri union. 38

41 In case of Rajpur union, drinking water sources, health and life, sanitation and homestead are in the higher rank of affected sector than business, communication, fisheries, livestock, etc. Similar cases are found for Uria and Gazirtek union, where livestock, household, homestead, fisheries, poultry, health and life has got higher rank of affected sector. Table 18: Flood affected sectors at each union according to priority Kaijuri Union Rajpur Union Uria Union Gazirtek Union Bhekra Union 1. Agriculture 1. Agriculture 1. Agriculture 1. Agriculture 1. Agriculture 2. Loom 2. Drinking water 2. Fisheries 2. Livestock 2. Homestead sources 3. Communicatio 3. Household 3. Health and Life 3. Household 3. Fisheries n 4. Household 4. Sanitation 4. Health and 4. Health and Life 4. Poultry Life 5. Drinking water 5. Communication 5. Homestead 5. Poultry 5. Household sources 6. Business 6. Livestock 6. Sanitation 6. Livestock 6. Poultry 7. Health and Life 7. Fisheries 7. Communicatio 7. Livestock 7. Business n 8. Sanitation 8. Poultry 8. Drinking water 8. Drinking water 8. Sanitation sources sources 9. Livestock 9. Communication 9. Fisheries 9. Drinking water 9. Sanitation sources 10. Homestead 10. Household 10. Homestead 10. Communication 10. Business 11. Fisheries 11. Business 11. Business 11. Health and Life 11. Homestead 12. Poultry 12. Handicraft 12. Education Institutes Intensity and magnitude of effect depends on the time of exposure to flood. Therefore, time of exposure to flood for each sector is identified in the community workshops. According the people s perception, most of the sectors are affected in during-flood and post-flood time (See Table 19) in all unions. Effects in post flood condition vary with location. For instance, the effects of agriculture sector remain in post-flood period in Kaijuri, Rajpur and Uria union but this sector is not affected in post-flood period in Gazirtek union. The reason of effect on agriculture in post-flood period is sand deposition on cultivable lands during flood, which is found in parts of Kaijuri, Rajpur and Uria union. Area specific sectors, like loom (at Kaijuri union), handicrafts (at Uria union) are affected in postflood period too. Rehabilitation of loom takes time and sometimes relocation is needed due to unsuitability of previous location. So the owner of loom loses income in post-flood period for few months. Similar cases occur for handicrafts in Uria union. Other sectors are affected in post-flood period mostly due to secondary effects. 39

42 Table 19: Ranking and time of flood effect on each sector in study area Ranking During flood Time of Effect Post flood Sectors Kaijuri Union Rajpur Union Uria Union Gazirtek Union Bhekra Union Kaijuri Union Rajpur Union Uria Union Gazirtek Union Bhekra Union Kaijuri Union Rajpur Union Uria Union Gazirtek Union Bhekra Union Agriculture Fisheries Livestock Poultry Household Homestead Business Health and Life Drinking water sources Sanitation Communication Other (Loom) 2 Other (Handicraft) 12 Other (Education Institutes) Effect of recent extreme flood on agriculture The pilot study areas are affected by normal flooding every year with which local people are experienced and adapted to their livelihoods. Amid the normal floods some years the flood reaches up to its extreme condition in irregular manner. The extremity of flood appears with huge loss to the local agricultural sectors. According to the farmers, the flood often strikes the vegetative stage of transplant Aman and pre-harvesting stage of jute in Uria of Gaibandha. In Kaijuri of Sirajganj the flood hits the reproductive stage of broadcast Aman, ripening stage of Boro and vegetative stage of vegetables. Seedling stage of transplant Aman is affected by the extreme flood in Rajpur of Lalmonirhat. In Gazirtek of Faridpur the flood affect the flowering and ripening stage of broadcast Aman, and vegetative stage of transplant Aman, sugarcane and jute. 40