NIGERIA Food Security Outlook October 2014 to March Average to above-average main harvest expected at the national level

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1 KEY MESSAGES Average to above-average main harvest expected at the national level A favorable cultivation season continues in most parts of the country, likely leading to an average to above-average main harvest and increased income for poor households who engage in agriculture labor work. Most households will experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity during the October 2014 to March 2015 period. Poor households worst affected by conflict in central Borno and Yobe and northern Adamawa States have been unable to engage in typical cultivation and agricultural labor activities again this season. Even in the post-harvest period, these households will face difficulty meeting their nonfood needs. Although some dry season activities will begin in early 2015, households will still face food consumption gaps. This area will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through March. Poor households in northern Borno and Yobe and southern Source: FEWS NET Adamawa States that are somewhat less affected by Boko This map represents acute food insecurity outcomes relevant for Haram conflict will still have below-average harvest stocks emergency decision-making. It does not necessarily reflect chronic food insecurity. Visit for more and pastoral resources compared to a typical year. As these on this scale. households continue to face difficulty in meeting their essential nonfood needs, they will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity through March. SEASONAL CALENDAR FOR A TYPICAL YEAR Current food security outcomes, October 2014 Source: FEWS NET FEWS NET NIGERIA fews.nigeria@fews.net FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government

2 NATIONAL OVERVIEW Current Situation Projected food security outcomes, October to December 2014 The main cultivation season for most of the country is progressing favorably. Although the rainy season in the north of the country is coming to an end, rainfall is still being recorded in the southern part and the north-central states of the country. Continued rains in the center and south of the country provide adequate rainfall for the second season plantings of maize and cassava which are both at maturity stages. The usual main harvests of major staples such as yam, cassava, and maize is underway in the south while maize and millet harvest begin in the north. Similarly, legumes (groundnut, cowpea), water melon, melon seed and potatoes are also being harvested across the country. The national net-harvest prospects for major staples indicate average to above-average production despite some dryness in parts of Niger State during the season and conflict and the dry rainy season impacting, Borno, Adamawa and Yobe States. The recent agricultural performance survey conducted in September by the National Agricultural Extension and Research Liaison Services, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria indicated an increase in crop production for 2014 relative to 2013 at the national level. The survey notes an increase in the production of major staple cereals such as rice, maize and sorghum by about 10, 6, and 2 percent, respectively relative to last year s level. While millet production remained within the previous year s level, tubers such as yam and cassava output increased by about seven and one percent respectively within the same period. This is mainly attributable to the favorable spatial and temporal rainfall distribution this season, improved access to inputs, and to the low levels of crop disease and pest infestation in most areas. The survey findings also conform with the recent joint CILSS/FEWS NET/FAO/Government pre-harvest assessment conducted in September. Projected food security outcomes, January to March 2015 While at the national level crop production is expected to be good this season, localized areas of the country experienced difficulty. Localized flooding in parts of Jigawa, Kebbi, Kwara and Gombe States impacted cropped areas, reducing harvest prospects for affected areas within the states. Source: FEWS NET Source: FEWS NET This map represents acute food insecurity outcomes relevant for emergency decision-making. It does not necessarily reflect chronic food insecurity. Visit for more on this scale. Cropping activities were severely decreased this year in Borno, Yobe and northern Adamawa as Boko Haram conflict keeps households from their fields again this year. Households who have remained in the area planted much less this season than they typically would, as was also seen last year. Most planted cash crops (groundnut, cowpea) instead of staple cereals (millet, sorghum, maize) on the land that they did cultivate. Households in the extreme northeast near Lake Chad also prolonged dry spells throughout the season, which have had significant impacts on the crops planted. The dry spells persisted from late August through early October leading to wilting of many crops, particularly in the far north of Yobe and Borno States. In general across the country, both household and market staple food stocks are increasing food availability and access as is typical this time of year with the new harvest. The volume of trade between the surplus and deficit areas has significantly increased. As an example, market supply of yam and gari (processed cassava) on Mile 12 market in Lagos is more than doubled relative to previous months. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2

3 Seasonal agricultural activities also contributed to a seasonal increase in labor demand and income for poor households relative to the end of the consumption year. Wages this year saw an increase in many areas. In the southwest, for example, agricultural wage labor last year earned an average of NGN600 to NGN800/day at harvest season and has currently increased to between NGN1200 and NGN1500/day. Exceptions to these favorable labor conditions are seen in the northeast where the conflict-disrupted season sees little activity on the agricultural wage labor market. The increasing supply of staple foods on markets is resulting in a gradual decline in food prices across most markets. Yam prices has decreased by about 14 and 20 percent in September, on Mile 12 and Bodija markets, respectively when compared to previous the month. Similarly, maize prices declined by nine percent over the same period as millet price have remained stable since May on Dawanau market. Compared to the same period last year, white gari prices also declined by 28, 33, and 21 percent, respectively on Mile 12, Bodija and Dawanau markets. This reduction in prices is due to the combined effects of high market supply and low demand as most households consumes own production. In the central states of Plateau, Kaduna, Benue and Taraba communal conflicts between farmers and pastoralists are also leading to increased population displacement. Pastoralists could not have access to the verse grazing land in the area and some proportions of the farmlands in the area were left fallow as farmers have been displaced. Despite talks on the cease-fire agreement, there remains little indication for positive improvement in the persisting Boko Haram conflict, which has deteriorated even further in many areas of the northeast over the last few months. In Adamawa, Borno and Yobe States the insurgents occupy large areas across the three states. This continues to lead to significant population displacement to neighboring states, including Gombe, Bauchi and Taraba, and countries. A recent FEWS NET field assessment to parts of the northeast revealed that there are nearly 1,500,000 IDPs (internally displaced persons) registered in Bauchi, Gombe and Yobe States. Similarly, the UNOCHA led assessment mission to the northeast indicated that there are over 500,000 IDPs in Maiduguri, the epicenter of the Boko Haram conflict and 220,000 IDPs in Adamawa state. In the northeast there are several IDP camps, particularly in Maiduguri, Yola, Mubi, Bauchi and Taraba States. In Adamawa and Borno States most of the IDPs are with the host communities. However, in Yobe state there is no IDP camp and the IDPs are living with friends or family. The government through SEMA/NEMA (State and National Emergency Management Agencies) is assisting the IDPs and host communities with limited food and nonfood items. Similarly, the local communities and some international nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) are providing the IDPs with food, medication, nonfood items and schools enrolment for children. FAO and UNDP have also provided over 326 tons of improved millet, maize, sorghum and cowpea seeds to IDPs in Borno, Yobe, Adamawa, Gombe and Taraba States in the northeast. Most major markets in the area, including Maiduguri, Damaturu, Potiskum, Biu, Gamboru and Bama, are either nonfunctioning or functioning at significantly below-average levels. Commodity flow within such areas are also limited due to the high security risk-perception in the area and consequently resulted in relatively higher food prices for major cash and food crops in the area. The current nominal prices (month of September) for brown cowpea, white cowpea and millet Monday Market, Maiduguri sold for NGN187.11/Kg, NGN171.06/Kg and NGN63/Kg, respectively, 5-20 percent higher than on neighboring markets. These higher prices in the conflict prone areas negatively affect households ability to make market purchases for key staples in face of below-average revenues. Key sources of income for this time of year in the northeast are typically agricultural wage labor, livestock sales and remittances, which have all been negatively impacted by the conflict. Assumptions The most likely scenario for the October 2014 to March 2015 period is based on the following national level assumptions: Agroclimatology: The rainy season is ending seasonably in the north, but will continue in the south through December/January, following seasonal norms in terms of distribution and accumulation. Civil insecurity: Insecurity related Boko Haram conflict in the northeast has escalated relative to previous months leading to increased population displacement and will likely remain at at least current levels. The government had been intensifying military reinforcement through October with the establishment of a regional military intervention force comprising of Lake Chad Basin Commission countries (Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad and Niger) plus Benin republic. Crop production: The 2014/2015 main season harvest totals are expected to produce average to above-average Famine Early Warning Systems Network 3

4 harvests both for staple foods and tree crops considering the improved access to farm inputs, favorable rainfall, and low level of pests and disease infestations. This is outlook is supported by both the joint CILSS/FEWS NET/FAO/Government annual pre-harvest crop assessment and the annual crop performance survey led by NAERLS-ABU, Zaria. Dry season production: Dry season crop production activities are expected to begin normally in December/January in most areas including fishing activities as water recedes. Harvests will begin normally in March/April and will likely be average due to average water levels in rivers and streams across the country except for the north east where water levels in rivers are low and will not support adequate dry-season activities. Household income: As movements across the country become limited in an effort to limit the spread of the conflict from the northeast, seasonal wage labor between now and March will be slightly limited. Market food supply: Improved market stocks are expected between October and December as the main harvest continues. Sorghum supply will increase during January when the sorghum harvest peaks. Food prices: Market prices of staple foods will continue to experience a typical, seasonal decline towards December as market stocks and supply will increase during this period. However, the prices will increase as from January as demand will similarly increase, but remain near their five-year average. Livestock prices: Demand for small ruminants for end of the year holidays will help to sustain above-average prices. The supply of livestock from neighbouring countries will be below average as the major routes in the northeast remain closed increasing domestic market demand and increased livestock prices. Most Likely Food Security Outcomes The anticipated favorable main harvest is and will continue to lead to increased food availability, diversity and access for most households across the country. Favorable pastoral resources will also improve livestock body conditions and increased income for pastoralists and agropastoralists, contributing to increased food access. Despite a slight decrease in seasonal incomes from wage labor, household incomes are expected to be near normal. Most areas of Nigeria will experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity from October 2014 to March In contrast, households in Borno, Yobe and northern Adamawa continue to be impacted by Boko Haram conflict. In northern Borno and southern Adamawa States, as well as parts of Yobe State, somewhat less impacted by the conflict, farmers were able to cultivate somewhat more than areas that are highly impacted by conflict. Harvests are still expected, though, to be significantly below-average. In these areas food stocks and access will improve somewhat between October and December. Similarly, households in these areas will also have somewhat better access to dry season activities, though at below-average levels between January and March. As households continue to find difficulty in meeting their essential nonfood needs between October 2014 and March 2015, the zone will be in Stress (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity. Households highly affected by conflict in northern Adamawa and southern Yobe and Borno States have experienced much greater difficulty in maintaining their livelihoods. Within these areas, cultivation of the major staple food crops (sorghum, maize and millet) was restrained during the season due to security challenges, and only about 20 percent of the usual land was cultivated for these crops. This will seriously impact the level of food availability and access to the populations even in the immediate period after harvest. Dry season activities within the area will also limited. Markets are functioning poorly in the area and income earning opportunities are also reduced. As poor households continue to face difficulty meeting their basic food needs, this area will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity through at least March Famine Early Warning Systems Network 4

5 AREAS OF CONCERN Northeast Millet, Cowpea and Sesame Livelihood Zone 12 in Borno and Yobe States: Gujba and Gulani local governments (Yobe state); Damboa, Jere, Marte, Dikwa, Gwoza, Bama, Konduga, Kalabalge, Ngala and Kaga local governments (Borno state). Current Situation The Boko Haram related conflict in this area persists as increased population are displaced from rural to major urban areas such as Damaturu, Potiskum, Gombe, and Bauchi in the northeast. Some displaced populations are refugees in neighboring countries of Niger, Chad and Cameroon. Since August 2014, the insurgents have resorted to territorial occupation after displacing people from major urban centres such as Gwoza, Damboa, Bama, Konduga, Ngala, Marte, and Dikwa. Other urban centers under siege by the insurgents include Kalabalge, Gujba, and Gulani, within Borno and Yobe states. This has led to displacement of over 70 percent of the populations in areas highly affected by conflict. Maiduguri, the major urban center in the northeast, is host to 500,000 IDPs. In Yobe State there are no existing IDP camps and most of the IDPs are within the host communities in major urban areas, seeking humanitarian assistance. There are over 100,000 IDPs in Yobe State, mainly in Damaturu. The provision of needs continues to be restricted by limited access due to security. Currently, most of the local governments (LGAs) in this zone have a strong Boko Haram presence. They include: Gujba and Gulani in Yobe State as well as Gwoza, Bama, Ngala, Kalabalge, Dikwa and Marte in Borno State. These local government areas are inaccessible and households in these areas have had extremely limited access to humanitarian assistance. Most of the IDPs are in major urban areas in the states seeking for assistance. In Maiduguri, Damaturu and Potiskum, government through the SEMA/NEMA are assisting with limited food and nonfood assistance. Agencies such as UNICEF, WHO, MSF and the Red Cross, are similarly assisting the IDPs. Corporate organizations, NGOs and faith based organizations are also assisting the IDPs. However, substantial populations of the IDPs are staying with host communities and they are mainly dependent on the host families for limited food and shelter. A recent FEWS NET field assessment to parts of the northeast also noted that those who remained in areas with a strong Boko Haram presence have limited access to markets and income. Remittance from relatives are coming less frequently. It is only in few areas like Konduga that the military has liberated, increasing accessible to both local and international agencies for support. The escalation of the conflict, though, continues to limit access for humanitarian and government agencies to rural areas. There was some variability in the rainfall pattern and volume for this season with some dry-spells during key stages of crop development. Such crops as millet, rice and cowpea have shown the signs for a low productivity. The key determinant for below-average production in the region, though, is the low level of area cultivated compared to a typical year due to the Boko-Haram conflict. Not only did households plant much less land than they typically would, the land they did plant they devoted largely to groundnut, cowpeas and sesame. Pastoral resources such as water and pasture are also limited, having been affected by the prolonged dry spells. Key informant interviews have indicated that in seven LGAs in Borno State (Hawul, Bayo, Kwaya Kusar, Maiduguri, and parts of Monguno, Kukawa and Biu) only about a quarter of the typical amount of land was planted. In Kukawa and Monguno, weeding and harvest activities are restricted as insurgents threatened farmers. In affected communities in Yobe State only 20 percent of households were able to cultivate their farms also with below-average area planted. The labour demand in the area has also reduced considerably due to low level of cultivation in the area as a result of insecurity. Most commercial farmers in the area have not been able to cultivate their land, further limiting labor demand. For those commercial farmers who manage to cultivate parts of their land in relatively safer areas (with crops like millet, cowpea, sesame and groundnut), the labor wages is atypically high as labor supply is limited. Market and trade activities in the area are below-average and food flow are limited due to the roadblocks, security measures, border closures, and traders evading the area for fear of attack. Major markets in the area such as Maiduguri, Damaturu and Potiskum are functioning at about 50 percent of normal, while other, local markets in Gujba, Gulani, Damboa, Bama, Konduga, Gwoza, Dikwa, Gomboru, Marte, are non-functioning or are significantly limited in their activity. The informal cross-border trade with Niger, Chad and Cameroon is also down compared to recent years Famine Early Warning Systems Network 5

6 Livestock prices remain high due to below-average supply in both rural and urban markets in the area and increased demand due for Tabaski celebrations in early October. The livestock supply in the zone is below average as pastoralists evade the area due to the civil insecurity. This coupled with market supply disruptions due to border closures with Chad, Cameroon and Niger and road blocks in the area, are causing below-average market supply. Assumptions The most likely scenario for the October 2014 to March 2015 period is based on the following zone-level assumptions: Main harvest: The main harvest will continue for millet, cowpea and rice, while sorghum will be harvested in December/January. However, cereal harvests will come in significantly below average due to the combined effects of the prolonged dry-spell and conflict disrupting cultivation in the area. In Yobe State net crop production for poor households will likely be much less than half of a typical year, and even worse in Borno State. Conflict/displacement: Civil insecurity relating to Boko Haram conflict, as well as the effects of the state of emergency, are expected to continue at status quo levels. Population displacements are expected to continue at rates seen before September as more populations move from rural areas to urban centers to avoid unexpected attack from the insurgents. Off-season activities: Dry season activities will begin in December in the area along the major river channels. Vegetables including onion, tomatoes and pepper will be cultivated. Rice, sorghum, cowpea and fishing activities will also occur. The areas, though, in Borno and Yobe states are highly affected by conflict. Dry season activities will be significantly impacted. Water levels in major rivers are also below normal levels due to the below-average rainfall. Markets and trade: Due to the effects of civil insecurity, the state of emergency (road blocks) and traders fears about entering the zone, trade flows in the region will remain below-average for both cereals and livestock, both from other zones in the country and from neighboring countries (Niger, Chad, and Cameroon). Market supplies will slightly increase between October and December due to the harvest, particularly more for cowpea and groundnuts but will decline between January and March. Consequently, food prices will continue to decline slightly until December as the harvest peaks. During January to March prices will increase faster than usual. Prices will remain above the seasonal trend due to below-average harvests and limited trade activities in the area. Most Likely Food Security Outcomes Between October and December, household food access will increase slightly due to new harvests, but as these harvests will come in significantly below-average, households will smooth their consumption of these new stocks over a few months. This will still not offset the food needs and poor households in particular will continue to face difficulty meeting their basic food needs even in the post-harvest period. Other households will resort to atypical farm labor work during the harvest period, and atypical migration to areas outside the conflict areas to earn income and remit income to households at home to meet basic food needs. Income-earning opportunities in the region will be limited and most households will therefore be dependent on assistance from relations and communities to access food. Between January and March, households will continue to face increased difficulty in meeting their basic food needs. During this period food demand will increase, as will food prices for those who have the means to purchase. Income earning opportunities will continue to be drastically limited, aggravating food access difficulties. Displaced households will not be able to partake in dry-season cultivation activities nor petty trade. For those who are able to participate in dry-season activities, production is still expected to be significantly below-average due to the effects of conflict. This area in central Borno and Yobe States will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity through March Famine Early Warning Systems Network 6

7 North-Central Maize, Sorghum and Cotton Livelihood Zone 10 in Borno and Adamawa States: Mubi North, Mubi South, Madagali and Michika (Adamawa state). Biu and Chibok (Borno state). Current Situation Though the start of the season was late by about two weeks, the season progressed favorably through the rest of the season and crop development was normal for those crops that were able to be planted. Significantly below-average harvest prospects for the season, though, stem from a large decrease in area planted. As households fear insurgents taking control of the zone, farmers either abandoned their fields, or planted on a small portion of what they typically would. Crops of maize, rice, groundnut and sesame that were able to be planted are at typical vegetative stages. Sorghum, which is a longer cycle crop, is at the booting and flowering stages and will be harvested normally in December/January. The Boko Haram insurgents have established a strong presence in this zone and typical livelihood activities are significantly interrupted. FEWS NET interviews with key informants and local officials and reports from the area indicate that major income sources in the zone such as agricultural labor, firewood and charcoal sales, crop sales and transportation are significantly affected by the crisis. Poor households have not been able to earn normal income through crop sales and labor work, limiting household income and purchasing power leading to significantly limited food availability and access. Thus, household income is atypically low due to limited labor opportunities, restricted labor migration and reduced market activities in the affected areas. The market situation in the area is mixed, both rural and urban markets in the areas under Boko-Haram occupation are no longer functional (Gulak, Madagali, Shua, etc.). Markets in other areas of the zone are still functioning though with limited traders from outside the zone. The usual markets along the Adamawa border with Cameroon where some level of crossborder trade had been taking place have also closed. Households in this zone have been displaced to urban centers in the zone including Yola, as well as to neighboring states and countries. They are dependent on limited food assistance needs from government, NGOs and the host communities. Removed from the fields, these households are unable to cultivate as they would normally this time of year. Assistance to the victims of the conflict comes from several sources: Presidential Initiative on the North-East (PINE), NEMA, and Borno and Adamawa State governments through their respective SEMA. Community assistance, corporate organizations and NGOs also provide assistance to the IDPs. However, the assistance has been significantly limited access to IDPs and local populations. In Adamawa State the IDPs that were previously displaced from Borno and Adamawa were in various camps in Mubi, totaling more than 10,000, mainly from Gulak, Madagali, Gwoza and Michika. They are staying in three camps: Emirs Place, Kolere Primary school and Government Day Secondary School Lamurde, all in Mubi. The Emir supported the camp with NGN2,000,000 while faith based organizations, state and local governments as well as individuals and corporate bodies also provided assistance to the IDPs in Mubi. Most IDPs, though, are staying with host communities and limited numbers are in camps. Nonfood expenditures have increased relative to the pre-conflict period due to lack of health facilities, medical personnel and increased transportation as households have to travel longer distances to access medical and education service. Assumptions The most likely scenario for the October 2014 to March 2015 period is based on the following zone-level assumptions: Main harvest: The main harvest will continue for maize, and millet. Sorghum, a longer cycle crop, will be harvested in December/January. However cereal harvest will be significantly below average due to the effects of conflict. As conflict continues to displace households, many who planted their crops earlier in the year will not be there to harvest between October and December. Conflict/displacement: Civil insecurity relating to Boko Haram conflict, as well as the effects of the state of emergency, are expected to continue at status quo levels. Population displacements are expected to continue at rates seen before September as more populations move from rural areas to urban centers to avoid unexpected attack from the insurgents. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 7

8 Off-season activities: Dry season activities will begin in December in the area along the major river channels. Vegetables including onion, tomatoes and pepper will be cultivated. Rice, sorghum, cowpea and fishing activities will also occur. Dry season activities will be significantly impacted. Water levels in major rivers are also below normal levels due to the below-average rainfall. Market and trade: Due to the effects of civil insecurity, the state of emergency (road blocks) and traders fears about entering the zone, trade flows in the region will remain below-average for both cereals and livestock, both from other zones in the country and from neighboring countries (Niger, Chad, and Cameroon). Market supplies will slightly increase between October and December due to the harvest, particularly more for cowpea and groundnuts but will decline between January and March. Consequently, food prices will continue to decline slightly until December as the harvest peaks. During January to March prices will increase faster than usual. Prices will remain above the seasonal trend due to below-average harvests and limited trade activities in the area. Most Likely Food Security Outcomes The main harvest is underway in October, increasing somewhat relative food access for households. Households are expected to smooth the consumption of their significantly below-average harvest stocks for a few months due to the limited production. The households own harvest in the area will not offset the food needs gaps for the affected households. Affected households who have limited harvests would typically return resort to market earlier than normal. Market purchase this year will again be difficult due to limited income earning opportunities. Most households, and poor households in particular, will rely on wild foods collection, labor migration for work out of the zone, and assistance from friends and family to access food. Poor households will still face difficulty meeting their basic food needs and between October 2014 and March 2015 the zone will continue to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity. EVENTS THAT MIGHT CHANGE THE OUTLOOK Table 1: Possible events over the next six months that could change the most-likely scenario. Area Event Impact on food security outcomes National Re-escalation of Ebola viral disease Serious impact on trade through impaired movement of goods and persons Disruption of livelihoods Increased health and other non-food expenditures Election related violence during the first quarter of the year Disruptions in market activities and food flow to deficit areas affecting the level and access of food through market purchase Loss of food stocks in houses will get affected Disruption of livelihoods particularly labor market Borno, Yobe and Adamawa States Marked decrease in or end to conflict Well targeted humanitarian assistance. Improved market and trade activities, increased food flow Improved dry season activities and increased food availability and access during March/April period Increased income earning opportunities through petty trade and other non-farm activities and increased food access Improved humanitarian condition in camps Increased food availability and nutrition situation ABOUT SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT To project food security outcomes, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects, and the probable responses of various actors. FEWS NET analyzes these assumptions in the context of current conditions and local livelihoods to arrive at a most likely scenario for the coming six months. Learn more here. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 8