FAO s Nine-month Action Plan. Mitigating the impact of the conflict on livelihoods. Northeast Nigeria

Transcription

1 FAO s Nine-month Action Plan Mitigating the impact of the conflict on livelihoods Northeast Nigeria September 2016 May 2017

2 FAO s Nine-month Action Plan Mitigating the impact of the conflict on livelihoods Northeast Nigeria September 2016 May 2017 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Rome, 2016

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4 Map of northeast Nigeria 2

5 Table of Contents Executive summary... 5 Responding to today s needs and preparing for the future... 5 FAO s nine-month Action Plan... 5 The next step: planning for strengthened recovery and resilience... 7 Nine-month Action Plan for northeast Nigeria Situation and needs assessment A complex socio economic and agro-ecological setting The conflict and its consequences Scenarios and consequences for FAO programming Nine-month Action Plan Key assumptions Programme design The dry season Preparing for the 2017 rainy season Implementation arrangements Activity calendar Risk analysis and mitigation measures The use of the scenarios in the operations Budget Effective food security coordination, analysis and information management Sector coordination Inclusive, comprehensive and targeted food security analysis and information management Strengthening FAO s capacity in Nigeria Next steps: Strengthening the resilience of crisis-affected communities Linking emergency to recovery and resilience Support the development of a multi-stakeholder resilience agenda in the Lake Chad region Conflict prevention and peace building Contacts

6 Acronyms CILSS Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FEWS NET Famine Early Warning Systems Network HRP Humanitarian Response Plan IDP Internally displaced person IOM International Organization for Migration LCBC Lake Chad Basin Commission LGA Local Government Authority NEMA National Emergency Management Agency NGO Non-governmental Organization OCHA United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs SEMA State Emergency Management Agency UN United Nations UXO Unexploded ordnances WFP World Food Programme 3 Ms Mobility, mulit-activity and multipurpose 4

7 Executive summary USD 25 million is needed To implement a large-scale urban and peri-urban livelihood support programme based on irrigated vegetable growing and micro-gardening To prepare for the 2017 main season to provide urgently needed agricultural inputs to vulnerable farming families To ensure FAO has the capacity to support international and national efforts in food security coordination, analysis and information management Responding to today s needs and preparing for the future The emergency strategy of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) is to strengthen capacity to rapidly restore food production among rural communities in affected areas to contribute significantly not just to improving food security, but also to paving the road back to resilience and stability in the region. FAO is therefore focusing on: (i) mitigating the impact of the conflict on the livelihoods crisis; (ii) strengthening the resilience of communities affected by the crisis; and (iii) strengthening food security and livelihood sector coordination and food security analysis and information management. FAO s nine-month Action Plan Spanning from September 2016 to May 2017, the Action Plan comprises a set of activities covering the dry season and preparedness activities required to timely implement support to the 2017 main season. The dry season Target IDP and host community households in northeastern Nigeria with vegetable kits to improve nutritional, food security and economic status as well as access to new technologies and practices for urban agriculture - Seed kits and support to small-scale irrigation: to benefit peri-urban IDPs in camps and host communities as well as returnees and resident communities - Establishment of urban micro-gardening systems: seed kits and equipment (e.g. vertical gardens, bag agriculture, etc.); Small-scale rehabilitation of market facilities through cash- or food-for-work programmes and provision of equipment and material, especially in areas where people start moving back Training using a needs-based approach Fact-finding exploratory mission on land-related problems (e.g. tenure security linked to use/management and local conflict drivers) Preparing for the 2017 rainy season Target households with mixed cropping and farming inputs (e.g. cereal, pulses and vegetable seeds, farming tools and fertilizer) for people returning to their areas of origin and those remaining in urban and peri-urban areas; a strategic and operational partnership will be developed with the World Food Programme (WFP) and other stakeholders for seed protection schemes with food rations or cash to reduce the risk of seed consumption 5

8 Target IDPs and returnee households, in particular women-headed households, with a pilot small ruminants restocking project, with cash for work activities related to small infrastructure rehabilitation, water and soil conservation and other alternative livelihoods activities. Preparedness activities for possible large-scale interventions in the livestock sector - Procuring appropriate medical and veterinary supplies to target IDP, returnee and host community households to protect about small ruminants - Support to private and public veterinary services to prepare for the redeployment of veterinary services in the accessible areas in Support the provision of tonnes of animal feed to cover the needs of about five small ruminants per household for three months during the lean season Preparedness activities for improving tenure security and conflict resolution - Based on the initial fact-finding mission, test modalities to facilitate land access for returnees through dialogue and negotiations - In collaboration with national research institutions on land rights and land use, explore modalities for managing land conflicts, reflecting on comparative experiences by FAO in other countries. Strengthened capacity for food security coordination, analysis and information management Food security sector coordination is essential to enhance the quality of the response, avoid duplication and limit the risks of gaps, especially in consideration of such a complex agro-ecological and political situation with a high level of fluidity and versatility, the rapidly growing number of international actors and the important role played by the national institutions at federal and state levels. Strong sector coordination, coled by the Government, FAO and WFP is already established. In addition, food security analysis for evidencebased decisions (e.g. using Cadre Harmonisé, seed security assessments) and information management are key to the food security, nutrition and agricultural recovery of northeast Nigeria. Implementation Based on increased corporate support, FAO is continuing its efforts to properly staff and equip its teams both at federal level and in the affected areas. Support and technical backstopping are being provided at regional and headquarters levels. FAO has been active in northeast Nigeria since 2013 and gained significant experience in emergency food security programmes in the conflict-affected area. Teams in all affected states are being strengthened and an FAO field office is now operational in Maiduguri, Borno State, contributing to scaled up capacity in the northeast of the country. Flexibility will be very important in the implementation of this Action Plan given the volatile and unpredictable context. Therefore, a multi-scenario planning exercise was undertaken in consultation with national institutions and humanitarian agencies to identify different possible courses of events in the coming nine months. On this basis, an agile programming framework for the emergency response has been designed. Depending on the type of assistance and the targeted area, the proper combination of in-kind supply, voucher and cash options will be identified, complemented by needs-based training. FAO will be responsible for the overall management of the procurement process. Implementation will be supported by an effective monitoring and evaluation system as well as a strong rolling and scenario-based risk analysis to facilitate risk management and adaptation of the programme. The implementation of the Action Plan will be through partnership with: national, state and local-level institutions, civil society and national and international NGOs and the private sector. 6

9 Activity calendar To ensure the smooth implementation of the Action Plan, activities should follow the below work plan. Campaign Fundraising activities Dry season Main season 2017 Coordination Technical support Description Zone selection Beneficiary identification Procurement Distribution Monitoring and evaluation Procurement Zone selection Beneficiary identification Distribution Monitoring and evaluation Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May FAO Nigeria Action Plan budget Campaign Description Target beneficiary households Estimated budget Support to mixed cropping with vegetables and Dry season farming inputs Support to livestock (animal health and feeding) Nutrition-sensitive agriculture through mixed cropping of cereals, pulses and vegetables and Main season 2017 farming inputs Alternative livelihoods, including restocking, aquaculture, markets rehabilitation, cash-for-work, etc Total The next step: planning for strengthened recovery and resilience This nine-month Action Plan is in line with the 2016 revised Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP) for Nigeria. The next HRP should be based on multi-year planning ( ) in order to successfully support IDPs, returnees, host and resident communities. It is important to already start planning for the next step, beyond emergency response and aiming at strengthened recovery and resilience. As the crisis is de facto a regional crisis, a resilience planning mission will be fielded in the four countries of the Lake Chad area, namely Cameroon, Chad, the Niger and Nigeria, focusing on: The socio-economics and agro-ecological issues that shape this particular area; The key factors around sharing common resources and the politico-military crisis that is having a strong impact on livelihoods and natural resource management of inhabitants in the neighbouring areas of the four concerned countries; and The critical coordination at regional level under the auspices of the Lake Chad Basin Commission. 7

10 Nine-month Action Plan for northeast Nigeria 1. Situation and needs assessment 1.1 A complex socio economic and agro-ecological setting The northeast region of Nigeria comprises several livelihood zones providing food to a large territory with several urban centres. These zones include: the Lake Chad shores and open water (with large and fertile areas for dry-season grazing and flood recession cultivation); a large Sahel belt with livestock and dryland cereal production (Sahel savanna); a secondary more humid belt with cereal, cassava and sesame (Sudan savanna); and one large much more productive area where many food and cash crops grow easily (northern and southern Guinea savannas). Between these different zones and neighbouring countries, trade has always been very active and allowed the development of trading hubs such as Maiduguri. In northeast Nigeria, an estimated percent of the population depend on agriculture, fisheries and livestock for their livelihoods and food security. Figure: Northeast Nigeria Livelihood Zones Map* *Source: Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) All planned activities must be well aligned with the existing crop calendars of the northern Nigeria states, focusing on the upcoming dry season and the need to prepare early for the 2017 rainy season. 8

11 1.2 The conflict and its consequences In northeast Nigeria, local politics, demographic pressure and environmental changes have undermined social contracts established between ethnic groups to manage natural resources, especially around Lake Chad, and facilitate cohabitation between pastoral groups and farming communities. The region has long been marginalized in terms of development policies, which has opened the door for a conflict targeting not only national administrative and military institutions, but also the civilian population. The cross-border nature of the conflict has led to a regional military and political response involving Nigeria, Chad, Niger and Cameroon, with whom Nigeria shares resources such as Lake Chad and challenges like the effects of climate change. The last three years of conflict have transformed a rural area that, despite being largely marginalized in terms of development strategy, was dynamic and populated into a zone of considerable suffering, significant displacement, high food insecurity and worrying levels of malnutrition. Internally displaced persons (IDPs) in camps and host communities 9

12 The conflict has cost northeast Nigeria s agriculture sector an estimated USD 3.7 billion 1 due to livestock losses; destruction of irrigation and farming facilities; collapse of extension services, market and trade facilities; and reduced production due to access limitations. Looting and fear of attacks have prevented many farmers from working in their fields, leading to the loss of harvests and productive assets, and extremely reduced purchasing power. Access to the areas beyond the most protected perimeters has been difficult and aid agencies involved in food security and support to the agriculture sector have been significantly constrained in their access to rural areas. In addition, the drop in oil prices and destruction of oil pipelines in the Delta have considerably reduced federal revenue and its capacity to support the economy, in particular in the north. Following the Cadre Harmonisé 2 food security analysis of March 2016, a joint food security alert was issued in July 2016 by the Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS), FEWS NET, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP). CILSS and its partners (the Government of Nigeria, FAO, WFP and FEWS NET) then undertook a joint rapid assessment in Borno, Yobe and Adamawa States and updated the Cadre Harmonisé analysis in August The report 3 underlined both the deteriorating food security situation and the diverse situations on the ground in relation to access, duration of the presence of Boko Haram, dynamics of displacement, etc. 1 World Bank and Buhari PLan 2 CILSS developed a methodology for the analysis and identification of areas at risk and vulnerable groups in the Sahel called Cadre Harmonisé. The framework is based on different methodologies used by actors involved in food security analysis, with the aim of informing decision-makers and guiding action and response within the region by classifying the current and projected food security and vulnerability situation on a standard scale across the region

13 Mapping of food security classification in the three northeast states Population in need States Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5 Total Phase 3 à 5 Adamawa Borno Yobe Total The situation continues to evolve with new areas progressively accessible. In these areas, the humanitarian situation is reported to be extremely serious after three years of missed harvests and seed security is at a minimum. Improved security has encouraged some farmers to return to their fields for the first time in two to three years. Host communities, where possible, are providing IDPs with access to land. However, the lack of agricultural inputs represents a major constraint for many farmers. Without support, they will continue to rely on prolonged and expensive humanitarian assistance to meet their food needs in the coming months. The wider negative impact includes the lack of economic and employment opportunities with possible 11

14 harmful consequences, including youth radicalization and enrolment in armed groups, resulting in continued civil unrest. This changing situation offers windows of opportunities that cannot be missed. FAO is thus preparing to carry out a seeds assessment for the three northeastern states in partnership with FEWS NET and other stakeholders (state institutions and Non-governmental Organizations [NGOs]). Given the region s complex agro-ecosystems and the duration of the crisis, it is important to assess the level of seed security (what is still available in terms of seeds in farmers granaries) and potential sources of seeds of similar characteristics in neighbouring and less-affected regions and states of Nigeria. This will involve strong collaboration with Nigerian institutions in charge of agriculture and seed production, in addition to coordination with the Borno State Maiduguri-based agricultural administration. On the side of the Government, several strategic action plans have been prepared and are synthesized in the Buhari Plan Rebuilding the Northeast, which represents a significant national effort.fao has already mobilized significant resources through its own internal funding system (Technical Cooperation Programme projects and allocations from the Special Fund for Emergency and Rehabilitation Activities), as well as with the support of several donors (the United Nations Central Emergency Response Fund, the European Commission s Directorate-General for Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection and the Governments of Belgium, Ireland and Japan). This has enabled FAO to distribute seeds and fertilizers in accessible area of Borno, Adamawa and Yobe and helped FAO to develop strong relationships with agricultural institutions at the federal and state levels, which will prove critical for the implementation of the Action Plan. 1.3 Scenarios and consequences for FAO programming As the situation remains unpredictable, the nine-month Action Plan has been designed with a flexible operational framework. A planning exercise was undertaken, using best practices in multi-scenario planning underlining the unpredictability of the situation (we cannot define what a most probable scenario could be), the multiplicity of possible events and facilitating the identification of different options for the coming nine months. Several key parameters have been identified that could determine the evolution of the situation, as outlined below. Level Internal to the northeast states Internal to Nigeria Regional (analytical level: the Lake Chad Basin [LCBC] Commission) Global Parameters Activities of Boko Haram Climatic patterns in the region (drought, floods) and their impact on food security Dynamics of population displacements Land access and land tenure issues Result of the military and security campaign Behaviours of military and Civil Defence Forces/vigilantes Internal conflict in Boko Haram Impact of oil price decreases and security evolution in the Delta region Political development in the Biafra area National food production (taking into account possible floods) and its impact on food prices Devaluation of the Niara and impact of the exchange rate fluctuations Management of borders Events in neighbouring countries Level of military cooperation between the LCBC countries Level of international military support they get Evolution of oil prices in the global market Evolution of cereal and food prices in the global market Global dynamics in the Jihadist sphere, especially the links with North Mali and Somalia s Al-Shebab, as well as the situation in Libya 12

15 The analysis led to the identification of a series of possible scenarios, as presented below: Scenarios The optimistic scenario The second best scenario The limited improvement scenario The degraded scenario The worst case scenario Description The efforts to regain territory and ensure security pay off and more areas become accessible. The Nigerian Army and Civil Defence Groups avoid large-scale human rights abuses. A certain level of confidence is slowly established, with a progressive return of the population to their areas of origin in Borno and Yobe, while large IDP populations who fled in Yobe and Adamawa are also returning. This will remain limited during the first part of the dry season and might accelerate from January to April 2017 as pe ople don t want to miss another rainy season. Unexploded ordinance (UXO) contamination turns out to be limited. The Government manages to redeploy at least a certain level of civil administration. Many IDPs might decide however to remain in the urban centres and develop new livelihoods there. Fishing activities and trade resumes actively, bringing good livelihood opportunities to a large segment of the population. Globally, agriculture activities and trade (allowing the area to benefit from the good production in the rest of the country) resume rather actively and significantly contribute to the improvement of the humanitarian situation. Stabilization of large areas is ensured, but insecurity remains an issue. Movements back and forth to the villages take place on a large scale, but people are still hesitating to resettle in their areas of origin. The states of Adamawa, the extreme south of Borno and Yobe reach some acceptable stabilization levels allowing activities to resume and civilian government institutions to be progressively redeployed in some areas. The Lake Chad area, the western part of Borno and some large forested areas south of Maiduguri remain much more problematic. The real level of UXO contamination remain unknown but the perception of the issue affects the desire to go back to the villages of origin. There is no sign that the internal strife within Boko Haram is leading to a risk of resumption of large-scale military or terrorist intervention. The level of trade from the southern states of Nigeria is on the rise, facilitating price decreases and better access to food for the population. Efforts to secure the areas pay off but not sufficiently to allow for a massive return to areas of origin. In addition, the evolution of oil prices and impact of the Niara devaluation seriously affect the State s capacity to properly pay officials and invest in basic services. Main routes and recaptured settlements are secured but no further progress is made deep into the countryside. Markets resume functioning in the main cities, but not in rural areas. Agriculture resumes in a 20 to 30 km radius around Maiduguri but not much further away. Internal strife within Boko Haram raises issues about the evolution of the strategy of the actors of violence. The real level of UXO contamination remains unknown but the perception of the issue affects the desire to go back to the villages. The humanitarian system has to address many new displacements from the areas where stabilization efforts are taking place to cities and areas of existing IDP concentration. Cereal production does not resume at large scale, while trade with the southern part of the country does not function sufficiently well to significantly reduce food prices. Internal fighting in Boko Haram leads to higher levels of military activities. Attacks resume regularly with suicide bombing and security incidents increase in number and gravity, which leads to the reduction of the humanitarian community presence in Maiduguri. As people have completely eroded their asset base, they start to move further south to Gombe, Adamawa and even further. Cities are further cut off from their supply and trade routes, leading to new price increases, which come as an additional negative element to the political and economic crisis affecting the whole country (oil price decrease, pipeline sabotage in the South, re-activation of the tensions in Biafra). The rainy season turns out to be below average, limiting even further the impact of the small-scale agricultural activities undertaken in This, compounded with the result of the difficult situation worldwide (cereal prices in the international market remain high), drastically limits the capacity of both the Government and aid agencies to supply sufficient food and livelihood assistance. In the internal strife within Boko Haram, the most radical group takes over, with a clear alliance with global Jihad. This leads to the resumption of large-scale military operations and the multiplication of terrorist attacks and suicide bombings. The Nigerian Army is confronted on multiple fronts with the resumption of the crisis in Biafra and the surge in the insurrection in the Delta States. Multiple population displacements take place while humanitarian access is limited to a minimum and eventually aid agencies in Maiduguri have to be evacuated. The International Task Force does not manage to get the situation under control and there is a significant spillover effect on neighbouring countries. 13

16 Given the severity of and the urgent need to address the deteriorating food security situation and the windows of opportunity offered by the opening of new areas, FAO has declared increased corporate support for Nigeria and mobilized accordingly. FAO capacity is being strengthened and internal resources have been mobilized to scale-up the response and support coordination efforts. Although FAO has been involved in emergency agriculture operations in the north of Nigeria since 2013, operating largely from Abuja, the Organization further scaled up its response, opening an office in Maiduguri and deploying staff and missions to develop an Action Plan for the period September 2016 to May Due to persistent Boko Haram activities in the concerned area, and based on the multi-scenario analysis presented above, FAO will pay due attention to the principle of Do no harm and seek to ensure the safety and security of beneficiaries targeted by the activities. Additionally, conflict prevention and the peace building approach, in particular in relation to land rights, will be critical elements in the implementation of the Action Plan. In designing the Action Plan, FAO has drawn on the Organization s technical competence and relationships with national actors involved in agriculture and livestock production to ensure that is area specific, adapted to the variety of agro-ecosystems of the concerned regions, and can be implemented in a timely manner as soon as sufficient resources are made available. 2. Nine-month Action Plan Given that a considerable part of the rural economy of Nigeria s northeastern states and its relationship with the urban sector has been dramatically affected by the conflict, a strong intervention in this sector is required. The absence of decisive engagement in the rural sector is likely to have serious negative repercussions on the socio-economic and nutrition situation of the population, as well as potentially severe political and military consequences. Therefore, FAO is determined to rapidly increase livelihood support for rural households, urban and peri-urban IDPs and host communities and to be fully prepared for the 2017 rainy season. 2.1 Key assumptions The focus will be on nutrition-sensitive agricultural activities and initial steps to recapitalize rural households affected by the crisis. Special attention will be paid to IDPs remaining in cities and camps and to the newly accessible areas and areas with observable IDP returns. In addition, as there will be huge needs for seed supply interventions, other key partners will implement seed programmes and excellent coordination will be required between these actors. The scale of needs is massive and no single programme can respond to all (either qualitatively or quantitatively). The FAO nine-month Action Plan aims to respond to specific needs to improve the food security of approximately households. The goal is to reach an estimated 2 million people, representing 45 percent of the population in Cadre Harmonisé Phases 3 to 5 in the three northern states. As well as supporting the returns process, the Action Plan will include direct or indirect support to the local economic integration of households who may decide not to return home for the foreseeable future. In addition, the Plan will explore possible modalities to improve land tenure security for IDPs and host communities, as well as to deal with conflicts between pastoralists and local farmers. 14

17 The situation in the livestock and fishery sectors is particularly complex and needs to be better understood. The patterns of livestock movement are peculiar in this area where large south north bovine movements take place during the dry season to optimize the use of the Lake Chad grazing lands. In addition, the Boko Haram insurgency significantly disturbed pastoral patterns and most IDPs have lost their small livestock as they fled. It is unlikely that restocking can take place on a large scale in the coming months, as it is difficult to launch restocking projects when entering the dry season and fodder becomes scarce. Some small pilot activities can however take place to explore the feasibility of the activity. Given that the disruption of the livestock economy created conditions for the spread of diseases, it is important to increase the level of surveillance and prepare technical services to be ready for veterinary interventions. Livestock interventions are likely to be much more feasible during the second part of 2017, in favour of returning communities. Similarly, fisheries used to be an important part of the economy of the area, largely based on fish intakes from Lake Chad and all submerged areas linked to the network of its tributaries. While it will take time for this sector to recover, a feasibility study and pilot projects on aquaculture should be carried out in the short term. 2.2 Programme design For all scenarios: IDPs with secure access to land, host community vulnerable households and returnees will be supported in dry season activities starting in October/November, especially for vegetable production: o support to vegetable-growing groups, especially women and youth groups, with the provision of seeds, irrigation equipment, tools and other inputs, including technical advice. This could be done through a combination of in-kind distributions and cash transfers through existing rural micro-finance institutions and banks; and o specific technical support to ensure that vegetable production induces both a positive nutritional impact and some income for the population. Specific attention will be paid to urban IDPs and some host families with limited access to land: the experiences gathered by FAO in similar emergency contexts and by the Food for the Cities network indicate that there are many opportunities to be seized in a situation such as the one in northeast Nigeria. This will imply: o provision of specific technical inputs (bags and wood beams for vertical agriculture 4 ); o specific technical advice on urban agriculture; and o support to the negotiation with municipal authorities, if and when required. FAO is preparing to target IDPs and vulnerable host community households with horticulture packages, comprising seeds, fertilizers (with as much as possible organic fertilizers), small equipment to set up micro-gardening systems and irrigation equipment. Rapid rehabilitation of agricultural markets in cities or along the main trading roads in the newly accessible areas can be undertaken as a means to support rapid recapitalization of agricultural systems and access to essential cash for IDPs. This means: o provision of light building material to set up light market infrastructure; and

18 o use of cash-for-work to create or rehabilitate market infrastructure. This can be done by offering short-term employment for youth from IDP and host, resident and returning communities The dry season Target IDP and host communities households in northeast Nigeria with vegetable kits (comprising seeds, irrigation tools and equipment, material for vertical urban agriculture, etc.). The expected impact includes improved nutritional and economic status as well as access to new but simple technologies and agricultural practices for urban agriculture: o o o seed kits and support to small-scale irrigation for peri-urban IDPs in camps and villages in the vicinity of the urban centres; seed kits and equipment for the establishment of urban micro-gardening systems (vertical and bag agriculture, etc.); and seed kits for returnees and host communities in recently liberated Local Government Areas (LGAs). Preparedness for possible large-scale interventions in the livestock sector. On the basis of the situation assessment in late 2016 and early 2017, the following activities will be undertaken: o o o procuring appropriate medical and veterinary supplies to target IDP, returnee and host community households to protect the equivalent of small ruminants; support to the private and public veterinary services to prepare for the redeployment of veterinary services in the accessible areas in 2017; and provision of tonnes of animal feed to cover three months needs of the equivalent of five small ruminants per household during the lean season. Small-scale rehabilitation of market facilities through cash- or food-for-work programmes and provision of equipment and material, especially in areas where people start moving back. All activities will be accompanied by training based on needs. Fact-finding exploratory mission on land-related problems (tenure security linked to use/management and local conflict drivers) Preparing for the 2017 rainy season This component was designed so that it can be readjusted in terms of geographical focus depending on the prevailing scenario when approaching the period March April Target households with mixed cropping and farming supplies in terms of cereals seeds (millet, sorghum, maize), pulse seeds (cowpea) and vegetable seeds (okra, rosell, sorell) with farming tools and fertilizer for people returning to their areas of origin and those who have decided to remain in urban and peri-urban areas. In the few areas where people are retuning and where there is still a resident community (people who did not leave their area despite the presence of Boko Haram) and areas where host communities are food insecure (Phases 3 to 5), the intervention will target resident community households. The intervention is expected to result in the production of tonnes of 16

19 cereals. A strategic and operational partnership will be developed with WFP and other stakeholders for seed protection schemes with food rations or cash to reduce the risk of seed consumption. Target IDP and returnee households, in particular women-headed households, with a pilot restocking project with small ruminants 5, with cash-for-work activities related to rehabilitation of small infrastructure (i.e. markets), water and soil conservation and other alternative livelihoods activities. Preparedness activities for improving tenure security and conflict resolution: o based on an initial fact-finding mission, test modalities to facilitate land access for returnees through dialogue and negotiations; and o in collaboration with national research institutions on land rights and land use, explore modalities for managing land conflicts based on comparative experiences under implementation by FAO in other countries 6. Depending on the real course of events at the end of 2016 and during the first part of 2017 (using the multiscenario grid as a planning framework), agricultural interventions can be redirected from one area to another depending on security considerations, return dynamics and other parameters. Additional assessments will also be organized in the livestock and fisheries sectors to determine the best way to support recovery. For example, the activities will focus mainly on Yobe and Borno States in scenarios 1 and 2, with a fall-back in Adamawa and Gombe in case the situation does not evolve positively (scenarios 3, 4 and 5). This will imply very active networking with seed producers and agricultural administrations in areas less affected by the conflict in order to source sufficient quantities of seeds and planting material of the required types. Pre-harvest contracts may have to be signed with seed producers and seed production centres in order to proactively set aside cereal and pulse seeds to be distributed early in 2017 for the main agricultural campaign. 2.3 Implementation arrangements The Action Plan will be implemented through partnerships with: national institutions at state and LGA levels; civil society organisations (farmers organizations, women s groups, faith-based organizations, etc.); national and international NGOs; contracted private actors (traders, telecom, credit and saving institutions, etc.); and micro-finance institutions and rural banks. These different activities will be supported by ad hoc training (urban agricultural, micro-gardening, aquaculture, poultry and small ruminant rearing, etc.) on a needs basis. 5 Large- and medium-sized ruminant restocking is not advisable when there is an access crisis to animal feed. The distributed livestock risks being sold or consumed. However, on a small scale, some limited restocking activities can take place. Any activity will take due consideration of possible threats represented by avian flu and other animal diseases. 6 People in Post Displacement Reintegration, FAO Land and Water Division working paper

20 Depending on the type of assistance and the targeted area, the most appropriate combination of in-kind, voucher and cash options will be identified. FAO will be responsible for the overall management of the procurement process. In addition, the implementation of the programme will be supported by an effective monitoring and evaluation system as well as a strong rolling and scenario-based risk analysis to facilitate risk management and adaptation of the programme. 2.4 Activity calendar In order to ensure that agricultural inputs are in the hands of their users on time, the following activity calendar has been developed: Campaign Fundraising activities Dry season Main season 2017 Coordination Technical support Description Zone selection Beneficiary identification Procurement Distribution Monitoring and evaluation Procurement Zone selection Beneficiary identification Distribution Monitoring and evaluation Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2.5 Risk analysis and mitigation measures Operating in Nigeria in general and in the northeast states in particular is not without risk, as described in the different scenarios identified. Systematic engagement with the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), the Logistics Cluster (on access roads) and the United Nations Department of Safety and Security, as well as the regular use of different sources of information will ensure an updated view of the situation and enable FAO to adjust the programmatic parameters of the Action Plan accordingly. As transactions in Nigeria can be complicated, FAO will manage this risk based on best practices and established United Nations (UN) procedures. 2.6 The use of the scenarios in the operations The scenarios described in this document will guide the decision-making process on how, where and when to allocate resources. Some of the features indicating which scenario is underway might be already observable; others might come to light quite late in the process, requiring last-minute reorientation. The following table underlines the possible technical choices to be made depending on the scenario. 18

21 Scenarios The optimist scenario: The second best scenario: The limited improvement scenario: The degraded scenario: The worst case scenario Actions to be implemented Preparation and implementation of a dry season action plan based on urban and peri-urban agricultural, livestock and fisheries production (including incomegenerating activities in agro-processing); Accelerated deployment of FAO and its partners in areas of return for need assessments and strong linkage with the International Organization for Migration (IOM) to ensure proper monitoring of the returns; Development of a strategy with national partners (SEMA, NEMA, ministries, civil society) for agricultural, livestock and fisheries rehabilitation in the newly accessible areas; Active preparation for large-scale intervention in agricultural input distribution, livestock and fisheries interventions through all possible means in order to recapitalize rural households and facilitate their recovery; Feasibility study to identify means to facilitate the integration of IDPs that decide not to return to their areas of origin. Urban farming, agro-processing and other livelihood options have to be identified and tested; Increase the coordination with WFP and partners to ensure that food is distributed in parallel to the seeds distribution in order to avoid seed consumption; Strengthening of the food security and livelihood coordination mechanisms at the Federal, State and LGA levels. Preparation and implementation of a dry season action plan based on urban and peri-urban agricultural, livestock and fisheries production; Accelerated deployment of FAO and its partners in areas of return for need assessments; and strong linkage with IOM to ensure proper monitoring of the returns; Development of a strategy with national partners (SEMA, NEMA, ministries, civil society) for the implementation of the programmes in both urban and peri-urban areas to facilitate the insertion of IDPs that decide not to return to their areas of origin. Urban farming, agro-processing and other livelihood options have to be identified and tested; Develop a strategy for the areas still hard to reach, to ensure a certain availability of agro-inputs in these areas; Active preparation for large-scale interventions in agricultural inputs distribution through all possible means in order to recapitalize rural households and facilitate their recovery. Priority is likely to be given to the LGA located in the southern parts of Borno, Yobe and to Adamawa States; Increase the coordination with WFP and partners to ensure that food is distributed in parallel to the seeds distribution in order to avoid seed consumption; Strengthening of food security and livelihood coordination mechanisms at Federal, State and LGA levels. Preparation and implementation of a enhanced dry season action plan based on urban and peri-urban agricultural, aquaculture and livestock production which can continue with adaptation during the rainy season; Development of a strategy with national partners (municipal councils, SEMA, ministries, civil society) for the implementation of the programmes aiming at facilitating the flow of agro-inputs to areas hard to reach; Reinforce the collaboration with IOM for displacement tracking to ensure high level of readiness in case the situation further evolves; Increase the coordination with WFP and partners to ensure that food is distributed in parallel to the seeds distribution in order to avoid seed consumption; Increase the availability of seeds and other agro-inputs in Maiduguri so people can create some forms of livelihood; Development of a strategy with national partners (municipal councils, SEMA, ministries, civil society) for the implementation of programmes in the new areas of displacement (access to land and water to be negotiated rapidly) in order to stimulate the absorption capacity of the host communities and to help IDPs to rapidly develop some forms of livelihood); FAO presence is reduced to a base minimum as most international staff and state and LGA administration are evacuated Activities are relocated to the accessible areas in the southern parts of the northeast region, where at least some basic access can be ensured.

22 The geographical implications of these scenarios are presented below: 20

23 Budget The following budget has been prepared for the Action Plan: Campaign Description Target beneficiary households Estimated budget Support to mixed cropping with vegetables and Dry season farming inputs Support to livestock (animal health and feeding) Nutrition-sensitive agriculture through mixed cropping of cereals, pulses and vegetables and Main season 2017 farming inputs Alternative livelihoods, including restocking, aquaculture, market rehabilitation, cash-for-work, etc Total Effective food security coordination, analysis and information management Sector coordination Food security sector coordination is essential to enhance the quality of the response, avoid duplication and limit the risks of gaps, especially given the complex agro-ecological and highly fluid political situations, the rapidly growing number of international actors and the important role played by the national institutions (federal and state levels). Strong sector coordination, co-led by the Government, FAO and WFP is already established. In addition, food security analysis for evidence-based information (Cadre Harmonisé and seed security assessment for instance) and information management are key to the food security, nutrition and agricultural recovery of northeast Nigeria. As part of its responsibility as co-lead agency for food security sector coordination, FAO will contribute to: o strengthening the coordination structure in place to ensure the most efficient coverage, reduce gaps, avoid duplication and enhance the coherence of operations through the development of partners activities mapping, facilitation of coordination meetings, strengthening of information management; and o capacity building for sector partners. Support to coordination is provided through the deployment of a Sector Coordinator and an Information Management Officer and the provision of a national Assistant Cluster Coordinator. As there will be very significant seed needs in a least three of the possible scenarios, it is suggested to establish a seeds supply coordination Task Force as a sub-group of the Food security sector, which can focus more precisely on seeds supply programme/planning/operation, etc. Under its mandate, FAO will ensure proper coordination with State and Federal agricultural institutions such as Ministries of Agriculture and Livestock, and meteorological institutions. It will pay due attention to the plans elaborated by the Government of Nigeria, in particular the Buhari Plan prepared under the leadership of the office of the Deputy Prime Minister. In addition, FAO regional coordination with other neighbouring countries (Lake Chad Basin Niger,

24 Chad and Cameroon), will be critical as the crisis has a regional impact with common cross-border issues (displacements, transhumance, etc.). Inclusive, comprehensive and targeted food security analysis and information management Food security information and analysis is an essential tool for managing crisis situations, as their seasonal and conflict-related parameters are subject to many predictable and unpredictable changes that affect significantly both the needs of the population and the operational environment where FAO and its partners operate. FAO will continue supporting the regular production of updated evidence-based information for the food security sector through its engagement in the Cadre Harmonisé process and other food security and vulnerability analysis. FAO will undertake and support partners in the organization of assessments in relevant technical areas: food security and livelihood assessment (sector-led), land tenure assessment (with focus on areas with high concentration of IDPs and returnees areas, FAO-led), livestock assessment with a focus on pastoralists and the use and status of transhumance routes (FAO-led). FAO will coordinate and collaborate with all other initiatives aimed at monitoring the evolution of the situation, including the IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix and OCHA constant surveillance data about changes in the context. FAO will collaborate and coordinate with national institutions in charge of agriculture in all concerned states and at the federal level. FAO will support lessons learning and exchange of experience among partners through after action reviews, documentation, evaluations and sharing of good practices. Strengthening FAO s capacity in Nigeria A scaling up of FAO operations and strengthening of presence in northeast Nigeria and in Maiduguri in particular started in June. Given the deteriorating food security situation in northeast Nigeria, FAO declared a corporate surge response on 21 July The new sub-office in Maiduguri is currently staffed with six people, including a senior Emergency Response Manager, an international Operations Officer, an Emergency Programme Officer, a national Administrative and Finance Assistant and other support staff. Further efforts are being made to fill, as soon as possible, additional technical positions (agricultural, livestock and fisheries experts), a Monitoring and Evaluation Officer and a Communication Officer, with a view to having a team of 12 people. Hence, FAO has built sufficient technical and operational capacity to implement this Action Plan. 22