Table of Contents. Abbreviations and Acronyms Preface Executive Summary... 15

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1 TABLE OF CONTENTS 5 Table of Contents Abbreviations and Acronyms Preface Executive Summary Chapter 1. Defining the Bioeconomy What is a bioeconomy? Foreseeing the emerging bioeconomy Notes References Chapter 2. What External Factors Will Drive the Bioeconomy to 2030? Population and income Demographics and human resources Energy consumption and climate change Agriculture, food prices and water Healthcare costs Supporting and competing technologies Summary of drivers Notes References Chapter 3. The State of the Bioeconomy Today Platform technologies Biotechnology applications in primary production Biotech applications in health Biotech applications in industry Biofuels The bioeconomy today... 85

2 6 TABLE OF CONTENTS Notes Annex 3.A1. USDA-Approved GM Varieties Annex 3.A2. Haute Autorité de Santé (HAS) Therapeutic Value Classifications Annex 3.A3. Analysis of Prescrire Therapeutic Value Evaluations References Chapter 4. The Bioeconomy to Platform technologies to Biotech applications to 2015 in primary production Biotech applications to 2015 in human health Biotech applications to 2015 in industry Biofuels to The bioeconomy in Notes References Chapter 5. Institutional and Social Drivers of the Bioeconomy Public research Regulation Intellectual property rights Social attitudes Notes References Chapter 6. The Business of the Emerging Bioeconomy Current business models for biotechnology Emerging business models in biotechnology Conclusions Notes Annex 6.A1. R&D Expenditures by Leading Firms Active in Biotechnology References

3 TABLE OF CONTENTS 7 Chapter 7. The Bioeconomy of Introduction The probable bioeconomy in Scenarios for the bioeconomy of Conclusions Notes Annex 7.A1. Fictional Scenarios to References Chapter 8. Policy Options for the Bioeconomy: The Way Ahead Primary production Health applications Industrial applications Cross-cutting issues The global challenge Timing The complex policy context Notes References Chapter 9. Conclusions: On the Road to the Bioeconomy Main findings Concluding comments Notes Annex A. Members of the Bioeconomy to 2030 Steering Group Annex B. External Experts Involved in the Bioeconomy to 2030 Project Glossary of Selected Scientific and Technical Terms

4 8 TABLE OF CONTENTS List of tables 2.1. Population and per capita GDP in 2005 and 2030, by region Population living in areas under water stress Drivers for the bioeconomy HAS evaluations of the therapeutic value of biopharmaceuticals and all other drugs Valid FDA genomic biomarkers and genetic testing requirements, September Examples of biopolymer production facilities in use or development Characteristics of new types of biorefineries Percentage of all field trials in select food crops involving potential biofuel traits, An overview of some current biofuel production technologies and research goals A1.1. USDA-approved and pending GM crop varieties as of 1 May A3.1. Prescrire evaluations of the therapeutic value of biopharmaceuticals and all other drugs (January 1986 December 2007) A3.2. Definition of Prescrire evaluation categories The current status and prospects to 2015 of some important platform technologies The current status and prospects to 2015 of some important biotechnology applications in primary production Share of all biotechnology clinical trials in proven and experimental biotherapies, by phase The current status and prospects to 2015 of some important biotechnology applications in health Bio-based chemical R&D: US survey respondents expenditures and employment, Projected value of world chemical production: 2005, 2010 and The current status and prospects to 2015 of some important biotechnology applications in industry Indicative regulatory costs to commercialise a biotechnology product Percentage of all GM field trials by the leading firms Concentration of R&D in pharmaceuticals and health biotechnology A1.1. Estimated 2006 R&D expenditures of relevance to biotechnology by leading companies in each application Biotechnologies with a high probability of reaching the market by Maximum potential contribution of biotechnology to gross value added and employment Current R&D expenditures versus future markets for biotechnology by application Examples of incremental, disruptive and radical innovations for the bioeconomy to

5 TABLE OF CONTENTS 9 List of figures 1.1. Current and expected integration across biotechnology applications World land mass by expected population in Expected world primary energy demand (Mtoe) USDA approved GM varieties as of May 2007, by trait Approved GM crop plantings, Share of biopharmaceutical NMEs out of all pharmaceutical NMEs (three-year moving average), by year of first registration for market approval, Number of diseases for which genetic testing is available as reported to GeneTests, by year Number of GM field trials for trees and grasses for lignin modification and for all other traits Observed (to 2005) and forecast ( ) GM share of global area cultivated, by crop Number of biopharmaceutical NMEs expected to obtain marketing approval, by year Number of identified gene-drug relationships, three-year moving average, by year of first publication World ethanol and biodiesel production: projections to Percentage of all field trials by type of applicant for agronomic traits (three-year moving average) Public R&D expenditures for bioenergy and the share of total energy R&D in IEA countries Doctoral degrees awarded in the physical, biological and agricultural sciences Multiple futures for health regulation Value-added market structure in biotechnology Number of SMEs with one or more GM field trials in the OECD Emerging business models in biotechnology List of boxes 1.1. Demand for grains in The bioeconomy and sustainable development Research spillovers The global economic crisis Ocean and marine applications Predictive and preventive medicine Biosecurity Regulation and competitiveness: the de facto European moratorium on GM Ethics and the bioeconomy

6 10 TABLE OF CONTENTS 6.1. Mergers and acquisitions in the seed sector Collaborative business models Identification and validation of biomarkers Life cycle analysis (LCA) Types of innovations Some policy approaches and tools for the emerging bioeconomy Managing incremental biotechnologies for primary production Managing disruptive and radical biotechnologies for primary production Managing key uncertainties for primary production biotechnologies Managing incremental biotechnologies for health Managing disruptive and radical biotechnologies for health Managing key uncertainties for health biotechnology Managing incremental biotechnologies for industry Managing disruptive and radical biotechnologies for industry Managing key uncertainties for industrial biotechnology Managing intellectual property for the bioeconomy Managing knowledge spillovers and integration Managing challenges at the global level

1 Table of Contents 1.1 List of Tables 1.2 List of Figures 2 Drug Discovery and Development Market in Asia - Introduction 3 Drug Discovery and

1 Table of Contents 1.1 List of Tables 1.2 List of Figures 2 Drug Discovery and Development Market in Asia - Introduction 3 Drug Discovery and Development Market in Asia - Overview 3.1 Introduction 3.1.1