Embedded Generation Behaviours & Customer Demand Management. Jeremy Caplin - Energy Forecasting Manager

Transcription

1 Embedded Generation Behaviours & Customer Demand Management Jeremy Caplin - Energy Forecasting Manager

2 What is Demand? Large Power Station Embedded Generation Micro Generation Station Load Initial National Demand Outturn Pump Storage Demand Pump Storage Generation HV Transmission Losses LV Transmission Losses Electricity Transmission System National Demand Demand Interconnector Exports Total Load Per Bidding Zone Interconnector Imports 2

3 Demand Definitions NG Website INDO - Initial National Demand Outturn X X X IO14_Demand X X IO14 TGSD Supply from GSPs Metered Generation Station Load Pump Storage Pumping Load Interconnector Exports Transmission Losses Embedded Large Power Stations BM Reports TSD - Transmission System Demand TSDF - Transmission System Demand Forecast ITSDO - Initial Transmission System Demand Out-Turn National Demand Forecast X X X INDO - Initial National Demand Outturn X X X Grid Code National Demand - Grid Code X X X National Electricity Transmission System Demand 3

4 European Transparency Regulations 4

5 European Transparency Regulations ETR requires all EU members to publish market data, much of it close to real time Data includes Total Load Unavailability of Demand Forecast Margins Unavailability of transmission infrastructure Cross Zonal Capacities and Use Congestion Management Measures Generation Forecast, Actual and Unavailability Balancing Data 5

6 European Transparency Regulations Information National Grid is required to publish includes: Outturn total load one hour after end of each settlement period Day-ahead forecast of total load per settlement period at 1200 on D-1, updated if forecast changes by more than 10% Week-ahead forecast of daily maximum and minimum total load (Monday Sunday) by 1400 on Friday. Updated if forecast changes by more than 10% Month-ahead forecast of weekly maximum and minimum total load, one week before first day of month. Year-ahead forecast of weekly maximum and minimum total load, by 15 th of each month for following 12 months. 6

7 European Transparency Regulations Total Load Per Bidding Zone is defined as equal to the sum of power generated by plants on both TSO/DSO networks 7

8 Demand Definitions NG Website INDO - Initial National Demand Outturn X X X IO14_Demand X X IO14 TGSD Supply from GSPs Metered Generation Station Load Pump Storage Pumping Load Interconnector Exports Transmission Losses Embedded Large Power Stations Embedded Non Weather Variable Generation > 1MW Embedded Wind > 1MW Embedded PV > 1MW BM Reports TSD - Transmission System Demand TSDF - Transmission System Demand Forecast ITSDO - Initial Transmission System Demand Out-Turn National Demand Forecast X X X INDO - Initial National Demand Outturn X X X Grid Code National Demand - Grid Code X X X National Electricity Transmission System Demand European Transparency Regulations ETR Total Load 8

9 Embedded Generation Behaviours Until now, our models have implicitly assumed consistent behaviour of conventional (non-weather variable) embedded generation We are starting to see variations in the behaviour of this plant year on year In order to comply with the European Transparency Regulations we have developed models of embedded generation Non-weather variable embedded generation has increased in recent years 9

10 Embedded Generation Behaviours Average Winter Weekday Generation Profiles 2010/11 to 2013/14 Non Weather Variable Embedded Generation 2013/ / / / :00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 07:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00

11 Embedded Generation Behaviours Base generation has increased by 1 GW since 10/11 Peak generation has increased by 1.2 GW since 10/11 Ratio of Peak to Base much the same (about 1.25) According to Digest of UK Energy Statistics (DUKES) embedded generation capacity increase by 147 MW between 2011 and 2014 It would appear that embedded generators are running at higher load factors 11

12 Back to Demand Definitions 12

13 Demand Definitions Starting Point GB Generation 11 Aug ,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, ,000 GB Other GB Hydro GB Oil GB CCGT GB Coal GB Wind GB Nuclear GB Pump Storage Total Interconnector 13 00:00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 07:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00

14 Demand Definitions Modified for Illustration GB Generation 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 GB Other GB Hydro GB Oil GB CCGT GB Coal GB Wind GB Nuclear GB Pump Storage Total Interconnector 0-5, :00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 07:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00

15 Initial National Demand Outturn INDO 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, ,000 Pump Storage Gen Interconnector Import GB Other GB Hydro GB Oil GB CCGT GB Coal GB Wind GB Nuclear INDO GB Pump Storage Total Interconnector 15 00:00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 07:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00

16 Electricity Transmission System Demand 40,000 Electricity Transmission System Demand 35,000 30,000 Interconnector Exports Pump Storage Load Pump Storage Gen 25,000 Interconnector Import GB Other 20,000 GB Hydro GB Oil 15,000 GB CCGT GB Coal GB Wind 10,000 GB Nuclear Station Load 5,000 TGSD GB Pump Storage 0 Total Interconnector -5,000 00:00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 07:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 16

17 Where Have Transmission Losses Gone? Transmission Loss Effect 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 GSP Demand Transmission Losses INDO 10,000 5, :00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 07:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00

18 ETR Total Load 45,000 European Transparency Regulation Total Load 40,000 Emb Non-Weather Var 35,000 Photo-Voltaic Embedded Wind Interconnector Exports 30,000 Pump Storage Load Pump Storage Gen 25,000 Interconnector Import GB Other 20,000 GB Hydro GB Oil 15,000 GB CCGT GB Coal 10,000 GB Wind GB Nuclear 5,000 Station Load ETR Total Load 0-5,000 00:00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 07:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 GB Pump Storage Total Interconnector 18

19 Effect of Weather Variable Embedded Generation 45,000 Effect of Embedded Wind and PV 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Emb Non-Weather Var Photo-Voltaic Embedded Wind Interconnector Exports Pump Storage Load Pump Storage Gen Interconnector Import GB Other GB Hydro GB Oil GB CCGT GB Coal GB Wind GB Nuclear Station Load TGSD ETR Total Load 0 00:00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 07:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 19

20 Effect of Weather Variable Embedded Generation 45,000 Effect of Embedded Wind and PV 40,000 Emb Non-Weather Var Photo-Voltaic 35,000 Embedded Wind Interconnector Exports Pump Storage Load 30,000 Pump Storage Gen Interconnector Import 25,000 GB Other GB Hydro 20,000 GB Oil GB CCGT 15,000 GB Coal GB Wind 10,000 GB Nuclear Station Load 5,000 TGSD No Wind or PV TGSD 0 ETR Total Load 00:00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 07:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 20

21 Customer Demand Management 21

22 Customer Demand Management Grid Code Defines Customer Demand Management as: 22

23 Customer Demand Management National Grid can not measure CDM CDM can be estimated by looking at shape of demand curve at darkness peak CDM gives flatter profile over peak 23

24 Customer Demand Management Comparison of Low and High CDM Days Thurs 23 Jan 14 - No CDM Wed 29 Jan 14 - High CDM 24 12:00 AM 1:00 AM 2:00 AM 3:00 AM 4:00 AM 5:00 AM 6:00 AM 7:00 AM 8:00 AM 9:00 AM 10:00 AM 11:00 AM 12:00 PM 1:00 PM 2:00 PM 3:00 PM 4:00 PM 5:00 PM 6:00 PM 7:00 PM 8:00 PM 9:00 PM 10:00 PM 11:00 PM

25 Customer Demand Management CDM significantly increased last year 40 Number of Days With CDM /11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Number of days with CDM >= 1000 MW Total number of days with CDM 25

26 Customer Demand Management CDM significantly increased last year 40 Number of Days With CDM /11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Number of days with CDM >= 1000 MW Total number of days with CDM 26

27 Customer Demand Management CDM significantly increased last year 27 days with CDM estimated to be 1000 MW or more compared with 10 such days in previous three years combined. Partially driven by Triad Avoidance Last year was very hard to forecast Triads Partially driven by changes in customer behaviour We anticipate high levels of CDM this year 27

28 Customer Demand Management We have developed new model of CDM This will NOT feed into our day ahead forecasts All our forecasts at Day Ahead or longer timescales assume no CDM If we include CDM in our forecasts then forecast demand is lower, and so less CDM will occur. Within Day forecasts INCLUDE CDM published data comes direct from systems used by Control Room and so reflect forecast actual demand CDM Will be included in overnight forecasts by Control Room from 1930 on day ahead 28

29 Help Us Forecast Better Grid Code OC1 says OC Customer Demand Management (a) Each Supplier will notify NGET of any Customer Demand Management proposed by itself which may result in a Demand change equal to or greater than the Customer Demand Management Notification Level averaged over any half hour on any Grid Supply Point which is planned to occur at any time in the Control Phase and of any changes to the planned Customer Demand Management already notified to NGET as soon as possible after the formulation of the new plans. Customer Demand Management Notification Level The level above which a Supplier has to notify NGET of its proposed or achieved use of Customer Demand Management which is 12 MW in England and Wales and 5 MW in Scotland. 29

30 Help Us Forecast Better Grid Code OC1 says OC (b) Customer Demand Management Each Supplier will supply MW profiles of the amount and duration of Demand reduction achieved by itself from the use of Customer Demand Management equal to or greater than the Customer Demand Management Notification Level (averaged over any half hour on any Grid Supply Point) on a half hourly and Grid Supply Point basis during the previous calendar day. 30

31 Help Us Forecast Better Some Suppliers still give us data Some have fallen out of the habit We are seeking to engage with Suppliers through several different routes to improve data flows to allow us to better forecast CDM 31

32 Help Us Forecast Better Grid Code requirements are out of date We would like to know if you plan to do on-the-day discretionary despatch of demand and generation At present we are not asking for the post event data, just a warning of plans for the next day Please send CDM plans / forecasts to Demand.Forecasting@nationalgrid.com by 1600 on day ahead 32

33 Q&A