Modelagem Climática da Rede GEOMA: Resultados recentes dos efeitos do desmatamento, fogo e aquecimento global

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1 Modelagem Climática da Rede GEOMA: Resultados recentes dos efeitos do desmatamento, fogo e aquecimento global Grupo de Interação Biosfera-Atmosfera CPTEC - INPE Manoel Cardoso, Carlos Nobre, Gilvan Sampaio, Luiz Salazar e David Lapola I Simpósio da Rede GEOMA Out 2007

2 Regional Climate Change Over Eastern Amazonia Caused by Pasture and Soybean Cropland Expansion Gilvan Sampaio 1*, Carlos Nobre 1, Marcos H. Costa 2, Prakki Satyamurty 1, Britaldo S. Soares-Filho 3 and Manoel F. Cardoso 1 1 CPTEC/INPE 2 UFV 3 UFMG Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L sep2007

3 Land-cover Scenarios Contr 20% 40% 50% 60% 80% 100% or Soybean Vegetation classes Dorman and Sellers ( 1989 ) Soares-Filho et al. (2006) / Amazon Scenarios Project, LBA Sampaio et al., 2007

4 1.05 Amazonia - PASTURE Amazonia - Pasture Area: East/Northeast Relative precipitation (p/p0) decrease in precipitation associated with pasture expansion y = x x R 2 = member 1 member 2 member 3 member 4 member 5 average Polynom (average) % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Deforested Area (%) ( 2007 ) Sampaio et al. GRL

5 1.05 Amazonia - SOYBEAN Amazonia - SOYBEAN Area: East/Northeast R elative P recip itatio n (p /p 0) the magnitude of precipitation decrease is higher over soybean than over pasture y = x x R 2 = member 1 member 2 member 3 member 4 member 5 average Polynom (average) % 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Deforested Area (%) ( 2007 ) Sampaio et al. GRL

6 Relative Precipitation (p/p 0) PASTURE Amazonia - PASTURE Area: East/Northeast Relative Precipitation DJF MAM JJA SON Relative Precipitation (p/p 0) SOYBEAN Amazonia - SOYBEAN Area: East/Northeast ( 2007 ) Sampaio et al. GRL DJF MAM JJA SON 0.6 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Deforestation Area (%) 0.6 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Deforestation Area (%) Season All Pasture All Soybean JJA -27.5% -39.8% SON -28.1% -39.9% The reduction in precipitation occurs mainly during the dry season, and is more evident when the deforested area is larger than 40%! all Amazonia Season All Pasture All Soybean JJA -15.7% -24.0%

7 Climate change consequences on the biome distribution in tropical South America Luis Salazar 1, C. Nobre 1 and M. D. Oyama 2 1 CPTEC/INPE 2 IAE-CTA Geophys. Res. Lett. (2007), 34, L09708, doi: /2007gl029695

8 Projected distribution of natural biomes in South America for from 15 AOGCMs for the A2 emissions scenarios Substituição da floresta tropical por savana! ( 2007 ) al. Salazar et

Consensus between natural biome projections - maps 2020-2029 2020-2029

models used (> 11 models) coincide as projecting the future condition of the

the future condition of the tropical forest was not found.

9 Consensus between natural biome projections - maps Grid points where more than 75% of the models used (> 11 models) coincide as projecting the future condition of the tropical forest and the savanna in relation with the current potential vegetation. The figure also shows the grid points where a consensus amongst the models of the future condition of the tropical forest was not found. for the periods (a) , (b) and (c) for B1 GHG emissions scenario and (d), (e) and (f) similarly for A2 GHG emissions scenario. ( 2007 ) al. Salazar et

10 Consensus between natural biome projections - statistics Percentage of the area where more than 75% of the experiments for the A2 GHG scenarios, coincide as projecting the permanence or disappearance of the current potential tropical forest, and where there is not a conclusive consensus amongst models ( 2007 ) al. Salazar et

11 Long-term potential for fires in estimates of the occurrence of savannas in the tropics Manoel Cardoso 1, Carlos Nobre 1, David Lapola 1, Marcos Oyama 2 and Gilvan Sampaio 1 1 CPTEC/INPE 2 IAE-CTA ( 2007 ) Global Ecology and Biogeography DOI: /j x

parametrização de fogo baseada no potencial de raios corrige a maior parte das diferenças Relação entre resultados novos e antigos correção Novos resultados

12 Representação de fogo natural em savanas / CPTEC-PVM PVM Dados de referência florestas secas Dorman and Sellers (1989) Result. anteriores CPTEC-PVM savanas Resultados anteriores mostram diferenças importantes entre dados e estimativas do CPTEC-PVM PVM para a posição de savanas Nova parametrização de fogo baseada no potencial de raios corrige a maior parte das diferenças Relação entre resultados novos e antigos correção Novos resultados Principal hipótese para explicar estas diferenças: ocorrência de fogo Raios Padrões de vento de grande escala (vento zonal ( leste de Menos árvores Fogo natural ( termo (longo Savana no lugar de florestas Mais gramíneas

Potencial de ocorrência de raios Potencial de ocorrência de

Principais regiões de savana (amarelo), e topografia e

estação seca e chuvosa 1000m 2000m Padrões de circulação

13 Potencial de ocorrência de raios Potencial de ocorrência de fogo Posição relativa entre fonte de umidade vento topografia Principais regiões de savana (amarelo), e topografia e oceanos Sub-regiões de acordo com a época de transição entre estação seca e chuvosa 1000m 2000m Padrões de circulação durante a transição entre estações seca e chuvosa C G ( 2007 ) al. Cardoso et

Impact of using the new fire parameterization in the biome estimates of the CPTEC Potential Vegetation Model: Major vegetation types: (1) broadleaf-evergreen evergreen trees (tropical forest), (2)

14 Impact of using the new fire parameterization in the biome estimates of the CPTEC Potential Vegetation Model: Major vegetation types: (1) broadleaf-evergreen evergreen trees (tropical forest), (2) broadleaf-deciduous deciduous trees (temperate ( forest (3) broadleaf and needleleaf trees (mixed ( forest (4) needleleaf-evergreen evergreen trees (boreal ( forest (5) needleleaf-deciduous deciduous trees (larch), (6) broadleaf trees with groundcover ( savanna ) (7) groundcover only (prairie, ( steppes (8) broadleaf shrubs with perennial groundcover ( caatinga ) (9) broadleaf shrubs with bare soil (semi-desert) ( desert (10) dwarf trees and shrubs with groundcover ( tundra ) (11) bare soil ( desert ) (13) ice. Accounting for fires corrected important differences between previous model estimates and reference data for the position of natural savannas in the tropics. In specific, large areas in India and SE Asia that were initially estimated as savannas are now corrected to dry forests. Cardoso et al. ( 2007 )

15 Inclusão do ciclo do carbono no CPTEC PVM David Lapola Diss. mestrado T e P FOTOSSÍNTESE w BALANÇO NPP r c HÍDRICO V m Diagrama esquemático simplificado do sub-modelo de ciclo de carbono proposto, apresentando os processos que influenciam em cada compartimento. T: temperatura; P: precipitação; w: água no solo; Vm: taxa de carboxilação da Rubisco; LAI: índice de área foliar; NPP: produtividade primária líquida; rc: resistência do dossel; E: evapotranspiração. LAI RESPIRAÇÃO VEGETAL E RESPIRAÇÃO MICROBIANA ( 2007 ) Lapola

Amazonia. Manoel Cardoso, Gilvan Sampaio and Carlos Nobre

Amazonia. Manoel Cardoso, Gilvan Sampaio and Carlos Nobre Combined deforestation and fire occurrence in long-term models of forests and savannas in the Brazilian Amazonia Manoel Cardoso, Gilvan Sampaio and Carlos Nobre Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais