Land Cover and Land Use Change and its Effects on Carbon Dynamics in Monsoon Asia Region. Atul Jain. University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL USA
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1 Land Cover and Land Use Change and its Effects on Carbon Dynamics in Monsoon Asia Region Atul Jain University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL USA
2 Terrestrial Ecosystems, Land Use Changes and Carbon Dynamics Socio-Economic Model (PET) ISAM Model The Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (TOPS) population GDP Satellite Measurements 100 meter x 100 meter
3 ISAM Estimated Land Use Emissions (1980s*) Jain and Yang (2005) gc/m 2 /yr GtC/Yr/deg ISAM-HH ISAM-RF FAO Satellite Latitude *Clearing of Lands for Croplands
4 1765 Global Mean 59 GtC Estimated Net Primary Productivity (kg-cm -2 yr -1 ) 1980s Global Mean 61 GtC Tao and Jain (2005)
5 Open Fire CO2 Emissions (gc/m 2 /yr) 1990s Application of MODIS, GLOBSCAR & GBA Jain et al. (2006), Jain (2007)
6 How do We Estimate The Effect of Land Use on Carbon Storage D? Disturbance history Stand type forest age Ecosystem processes & Climate Change
7 Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM) CO 2 Climate Land Use Change Terrestrial Ecosystems Nitrogen Deposition Biomass Burning Atmospheric Chemistry
8 Questions? What are the relative contributions of Land use natural ecosystem dynamics fire climate variability N deposition on forest and carbon dynamics in tropical forests? What are their synergistic effects? What are their potential future trends?
9 Changes in Land Use Changes in area Croplands (clearing and abandonment) Pastures Wood harvest & recovery (primary and secondary forest) Changes in carbon stocks Fire Management practices
10 Historical Land Use Changes for Croplands 6.5 Crop Area (Million ha) Houghton (2008) Houghton (2003) HYDE Ramankutty
11 Land Use Changes - Croplands (2000) Houghton (2008) HYDE Ramankutty
12 Land Use Changes Pasture and Wood Harvest (2000) Pasture (HYDE) Woody Harvest (Hurtt et al. (2006))
13 Estimation of Carbon Emissions from Land-Use Change and Net Carbon Storage/Release Across Monsoon Asian Region Global C sources or release (+) and sinks or storage (-)
14 Jain and Yang (2005,GBC) Global Terrestrial C-N ISAM 13 Biome types 0.5 x 0.5 degree resolution Carbon cycle Nitrogen cycle Feedbacks: Climate-C-N-LUC Biome Types Tropical Evergreen Tropical Deciduous Temperate Evergreen Temperate Deciduous Boreal Forest Savanna Grassland Shrubland Tundra Desert Polar Desert Cropland Pasture
15 Global Terrestrial C-N ISAM Yang et al. (2008)
16 Hydrology in ISAM
17 Model Calibration Long-term Inter-site Decomposition ExperimenT (LIDET) and other sitespecific data Leaf, wood and root litter decomposition data C:N Lignin:N Climate Yang et al. (2008)
18 Carbon Emissions from Land Use Changes
19 Emissions of C from Land Use Changes (1990s) Houghton (2008) HYDE Ramankutty
20 Effect of Nitrogen Limitation on Secondary Forest N Limitation leads to additional terrestrial carbon source
21 Land Use Emissions (GtC/yr) Historical Land Use Emissions Houghton (2008) HYDE Ramankutty Year Global Mean for 1990s Houghton HYDE Ramankutty 0.32 GtC 0.02 GtC 0.14 GtC
22 Other Estimates for Tropical Asia Estimates of Deforestation Rates and C Emissions (1990s) (10 6 ha/yr) (PgC/yr) (+0.5) Achard et al (+0.4) DeFries et al (+0.5) FAO 2001, Houghton (+0.5) IPCC (2007)
23 Uncertainties in LU Emissions. Rates of land-use change Deforestation, afforestation, abandonment Other changes in land use Carbon biomass of the ecosystems converted Degradation and growth Interactions Biophysical feedbacks
24 Factors Contribution to the Net Carbon Storage/Release Across Monsoon Asian Region
25 C Storage due to CO2 Fertilization Effect (1990s) Inclusion of N dynamics reduces CO2 fertilization effect
26 C Storage/Release due to Climate Change (1990s) (gc/m 2 /yr)
27 Nitrogen Deposition - Fossil Fuel Burning & N Fertilizer Galloway et al. (2004)
28 N Deposition Effect on C Storage (1990s) N deposition leads to additional terrestrial carbon sink
29 N Leaching (gn/m 2 )
30 Terrestrial Response to Changes in CO2, Climate, N Deposition GtC/Yr CO2 Climate N Deposition Year Climate introduces interannual variability CO 2 effect drives directional trend: net sink N deposition contributes small amount of C storage
31 Historical Net Carbon Flux 0.6 Net Carbon Flux (GtC/yr) Houghton (2008) HYDE Ramankutty Year Global Mean for 1990s Houghton HYDE Ramankutty GtC GtC GtC
32 Terrestrial Response to Changes in CO2, Climate, LUC, N Deposition CO2 0.4 GtC/Yr Climate N Deposition Land Use Change Net Combined effect leads to a C sink for the 1990s
33 A Final Question (or two) Are we biased in our observation of sources relative to sinks? Satellites see deforestation better than they see growth. Are changes due feedback processes contribute more to sinks than sources?
34 Conclusions Changes in land use and management play a dominant role in determining sources and sinks of carbon. CO2 fertilization accounts for a major portion of today s carbon sink in monsoon Asian region...perhaps all of it if we could measure it
35 Work in Progress Model past, present and future carbon dynamics in the region Conduct remote sensing derived analyses of LCLUC and carbon dynamics our collaboration with Dave Skole, Rama Nemanai and others Input field and remote sensing derived data into the ISAM Evaluate the impact of LCLCU on C dynamics in the future using socio-economic model coupled with the ISAM our collaboration with Brian O Neill of NCAR
36 Thank you..
37 The End
38 N dynamics N unchanged: N Deposition and LUC effect on C flux (1990s) (gc/m 2 /yr) (gc/m 2 /yr) N deposition leads to additional terrestrial carbon sink Land cove changes for cropland leads to additional terrestrial carbon source
39 N Storage in Soils and Vegetation N in soils (kg N/m2) N in vegetation (kg N/m2)
40 Terrestrial Nitrogen Cycle Inputs: Nitrification N deposition Outputs: Leaching Denitrification N 2 O, N 2, NOx Plant availability: Supply v. demand Litter decomposition Image source: US EPA
41 Response to Increasing CO2 GtC/Yr Case C Case NC Terrestrial ecosystems are a net sink in both cases Inclusion of N dynamics reduces CO 2 fertilization effect Without new N inputs mineral N available for plants declines
42 ISAM Simulations ISAM run to equilibrium with [CO 2 ] ~ 280 ppm and climate for early 1900s Five scenarios examined with and without N dynamics ( ): 1. Increasing CO 2 (~370 ppm by 2000) 2. Climate variability (Temp. and Precip.) 3. Increasing CO 2 + Climate variability 4. Changes in N deposition 5. Changes in land cover and land use
43
44 Land Use Emissions
45 ISAM Simulations Without N dynamics (Case C): N availability held constant at preindustrial levels With N dynamics (Case NC): N allowed to vary according to fully dynamic N cycle Model accounts for the effect of available mineral N on NPP and soil decompositions Two time periods: , 1990 s
46 Results
Atul Jain University of Illinois, Urbana, IL 61801, USA
Brian O Neill, NCAR 2010 LCLUC Spring Science Team Meeting Bethesda, MD April 20-22, 2010 Land-Use Change and Associated Changes in Biogeochemical and Biophysical Processes in Monsoon Asian Region (MAR)
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