Nicholas Fisichelli Ecologist, National Park Service Co-authors: Scott Abella, Matthew Peters, Frank Krist Jr.

Transcription

1 Climate, trees, pests, and weeds: Change, uncertainty, and biotic stressors in eastern US national park forests Nicholas Fisichelli Ecologist, National Park Service Co-authors: Scott Abella, Matthew Peters, Frank Krist Jr.

2 Climate change adaptation -management response to ongoing and projected change, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities (IPCC 2007). Goal 1: Use the best available scientific data and knowledge to inform decision making about climate change. Use approaches for managing through uncertainty (vulnerability assessments, scenario planning, etc.)

3 Climate change is ongoing Climate Exposure of US National Parks in a New Era of Change 81% of natural resource parks (235 of 289) are already at the extreme warm end of historical conditions (for any of 7 temperature variables) extreme = recent temperatures (past years warmer than 95% of the historical range of variability ( ) Mean annual temperature Acadia National Park, Maine Monahan and Fisichelli 2014 PLoS ONE

4 Climate change is ongoing in most (but not all) parks -baseline conditions are changing

5 Climate change is ongoing in most (but not all) parks -baseline conditions are changing Many other global change stressors are also impacting park forests Nonnative tree pests Nonnative plants Chestnut blight Hemlock woolly adelgid Oriental bittersweet, garlic mustard

6 Objective of this study: -examine regional patterns of projected forest change and nonnative biotic stressors in eastern national park forests 121 parks (minimum 4 ha forest area)

7 Methods Climate, trees, pests, and weeds Data sets Climate and tree habitat suitability changes Year 2100 compared with tree species potential habitat projections USFS climate change tree atlas ( Tree pests (nonnative insects and diseases) 81 nonnative tree pest species USFS Alien Forest Pest Explorer (AFPE) Database ( Weeds (nonnative vascular plant species) NPS NPSpecies database (

8 Methods Climate change across parks by 2100: Used 2 climate scenarios: least change and major change scenarios -plausible range of future conditions -mean annual temperature increase of 3-6 C ( F) -annual precipitation change of -27% to +75%

9 Methods Change, uncertainty, and biotic stressors Measures Forest Change: percentage of tree species per park with large change in average future potential suitable habitat. Year 2100 compared with Class Definition Large decrease ratio <0.5 (>50% decrease) Minor change ratio Large increase ratio >2.0 (>100% decrease) Uncertainty: the percentage of tree species at each park in differing change classes by climate scenario 2 climate scenarios ( least change and major change ) Biotic stressors -number of tree pest species with infestation zones that include each park -percentage of nonnative vascular plant species on each park s plant species list

10 Forest change across parks by 2100: 22-77% of tree species at each park in large change classes Trees Pests Weeds Change Uncertainty Biotic stressors large change : >50% decrease or >100% increase in average potential suitable habitat)

11 Uncertainty in forest change projections: 18-84% (the percentage of tree species at each park in differing change classes by climate scenario) Trees Pests Weeds Change Uncertainty Biotic stressors 2 climate scenarios ( least change and major change ) 3 tree habitat classes ( large decrease, minor change, and large increase

12 Biotic stressors: tree pests tree pest species per park Trees Pests Weeds Change Uncertainty Biotic stressors

13 Biotic stressors: tree pests -percentage of parks with host trees in infestation zones Trees Pests Weeds Change Uncertainty Biotic stressors Nonnative tree pest Major host trees Parks with host trees Parks in pest infested areas Sudden Oak Death Quercus spp (0%) Asian Longhorned Beetle Numerous species (e.g., Acer, Betula, Salix, Ulmus) 121 4(3%) Emerald Ash Borer Fraxinus spp (25%) Gypsy Moth Numerous species (e.g., Betula, (50%) Larix, Populus, Quercus) Hemlock Woolly Tsuga canadensis 59 46(78%) Adelgid Dutch Elm Disease Ulmus spp (100%)

14 Tree change and tree pests -future potential habitat varies by current tree pest distribution for some species (4 of 7 tree/pest associations) Fraxinus (ash) Trees Pests Weeds Change Uncertainty Biotic stressors 2100:1990 habitat suitability ratio P=0.004

15 Positive correlations among change, uncertainty and biotic stressors Trees Pests Weeds Uncertainty Nonnative plants Tree pests Forest change 0.31*** 0.36*** 0.72*** Uncertainty 0.09 (NS) 0.30*** Nonnative plants 0.55*** p-value: <0.001 ***, <0.05 *, 0.05 NS Change Uncertainty Biotic stressors

16 Positive correlations among change, uncertainty and biotic stressors Trees Pests Weeds Uncertainty Nonnative plants Tree pests Forest change 0.31*** 0.36*** 0.72*** Uncertainty 0.09 (NS) 0.30*** Nonnative plants 0.55*** p-value: <0.001 ***, <0.05 *, 0.05 NS Change Uncertainty Biotic stressors Forest

17 Park-level adaptation example Climate Trees Pests Weeds Change Uncertainty Biotic stressors

18 Park-level adaptation example Climate Trees Pests Weeds Change Uncertainty Biotic stressors

19 Forest Adaptation Workshop -May 2014 Climate Trees Pests Weeds Change Uncertainty Biotic stressors

20 Summary Potential forest change, uncertainty, and nonnative stressors are positively correlated in eastern parks, illustrating the broad scope of future changes and potential compounding effects in many forests. Fisichelli et al Forest Ecology and Management 327:31-39.

21 Summary Potential forest change, uncertainty, and nonnative stressors are positively correlated in eastern parks, illustrating the broad scope of future changes and potential compounding effects in many forests. In the context of climate change adaptation: Areas with greater potential change, uncertainty and stressors may require significant revisions and added flexibility to management goals -managing towards specific desired conditions may by especially challenging Fisichelli et al Forest Ecology and Management 327:31-39.

22 Potential forest change, uncertainty, and nonnative stressors are positively correlated in eastern parks, illustrating the broad scope of future changes and potential compounding effects in many forests. Potential adaptation examples Summary Persistence strategy: Reduce existing stressors (pests) for species likely to retain suitable future habitat Transformation strategy: Manage weeds in areas likely to undergo major shifts in native species Fisichelli et al Forest Ecology and Management 327:31-39.

23 Potential forest change, uncertainty, and nonnative stressors are positively correlated in eastern parks, illustrating the broad scope of future changes and potential compounding effects in many forests. Potential adaptation examples Summary Persistence strategy: Reduce existing stressors (pests) for species likely to retain suitable future habitat Transformation strategy: Manage weeds in areas likely to undergo major shifts in native species Further research is needed to elucidate potential interactions of climate, trees, pests, and weeds Fisichelli et al Forest Ecology and Management 327:31-39.

24 Climate, trees, pests, and weeds: Change, uncertainty, and biotic stressors in eastern US national park forests