Natural Disturbances

Transcription

1 Estimating, reporting and accounting Natural Disturbances Zoltan Somogyi National Agricultural Research and Innovation Centre Forest Research Institute Budapest, Hungary JRC Workshop, Arona, 6 May 2014

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4 Natural disturbances (2/CMP.7, Annex para 1a) non-anthropogenic events or nonanthropogenic circumstances that cause significant emissions in forests and are beyond the control of, and not materially influenced by, a Party

5 2/CMP.7 Annex, paras 33-36: A Party may exclude from the accounting emissions from natural disturbances provided that a number of conditions are met

6 Issues to answer Why exclude? Under what conditions? How to exclude? How to develop the background level and margin? (+ examples)

7 Why exclude? NIR EU, 2013: the inter-annual variability in removals is significantly affected by: - forest fires (e.g. Portugal in 1990, 2003 and 2005; Italy in 2007) Spain reports areas burnt ranging between kha annually; - windstorms (e.g. France in 1999 and 2010, and Denmark in 2000, Sweden in 2005) No one knows future

8 The Dendroctonus ponderosae story

9 Infected area in BC (Canada, million ha) The Dendroctonus ponderosae story 10 Kurz et al. 2008, Nature; Kurz et al. 2008,

10 The Dendroctonus ponderosae story Kurz et al. 2008, Nature; Kurz et al. 2008, 2009

11 carbon balance emission (MtC C / yr) The Dendroctonus ponderosae story ~ total annual emissions of Hungary Without beetle With beetle With beetle + salvage cutting Kurz et al. 2008, Nature

12 Emissions may be excluded (provided that certain conditions are met): either annually or at the end of the second commitment period separately for AR and FM in any single year when total emissions from all events, including legacy emissions, exceed a background level plus a margin

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14 To exclude emissions, report in NIR of 2015: intention to apply the provision to FM, AR or both country-specific information on a FM background level (BL) of emissions that have been included in FMRL an AR BL how BL has been estimated (separately for FM and AR) how to avoid the expectation of net credits or net debits during the CP, including through the use of a margin, where a margin is needed (separately for FM and AR)

15 To exclude emissions, demonstrate: all affected lands are identified, including their georeferenced location by year and types of disturbances how annual emissions and the subsequent removals are estimated emissions associated with salvage logging were not excluded from accounting

16 To exclude emissions, demonstrate: no land-use change has occurred on lands for which the provisions are applied methods and criteria for identifying any future landuse changes during the CP occurrences were beyond the control of, and not materially influenced by, the Party in the CP practicable efforts to prevent, manage or control the NDs that led to the application of the provisions efforts taken to rehabilitate land where practicable

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20 Exclusion of removals on affected land assess and report them, regardless of whether forest is re-established by rehabilitation or from the natural re-growth ensure that the removals are not captured by another assessment system check/correct consistency with FMRL exclude from accounting removals that are additional to those included in the FMRL

21 Information on efforts taken to rehabilitate the land area rehabilitated area not rehabilitated, and why (e.g. due to lava) timeframe of rehabilitation efforts taken or planned expected results (e.g., species, growth, C balance)

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23 How to identify & report on land apply Reporting Method 1 or 2 identify the type of ND identify the year in which the ND occurred check if normal forest inventory density provides sufficiently accurate information

24 If normal forest inventory density is not enough: to make the estimated uncertainty comparable with the uncertainty in the overall estimation of Articles 3.3 and 3.4 forest-related emissions : intensify sampling identify the necessary temporal and spatial resolutions, and assess the need for complementary ancillary and/or ground truth data

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26 How to estimate emissions & removals use IPCC 2006 use a Tier/method that is consistent with, and/or complementary to, the method and Tier level applied to each of the pools use Tier 2/3 especially if FM or AR (=L-FL) are a key category

27 How to estimate emissions & removals all pools (including DOM, but excluding HWP) must be estimated (except if they can be demonstrated not to be a source) separately estimate emissions due to salvage logging in the year when they occur these should include emissions from wood removed from the area, dead wood discarded and damage to soil, and non-co 2 emissions

28 How to estimate emissions & removals estimate and report areas and emissions in the year when ND occurs continue monitoring and reporting emissions and removals in subsequent years stratification, activity data, emissions/removal factors and other parameters must reflect the spatial and temporal dynamics estimate legacy emissions in the year when they occur

29 How to estimate emissions & removals show that emissions accounted for under the ND provision are unambiguously attributable to NDs and do not contain or double count emissions from regular management activities, including salvage logging if land use change occurs, report all emissions under D consistency with FMRL and BL is key

30 Jocke Berglund, 2005

31 Rules of exclusion: of all annual ND emissions

32 BL Es ( background group ) are excluded due to FMRL Es above the BL may be excluded in years with Es above BL + Margin ( outliers )

33 To estimate BLs and Ms (separately for FM and AR): STEP 1 define in 2015 the types of NDs that the Party wishes to exclude from accounting (can include sub-divisions and rare events)

34 STEP 2a Establish a consistent and initially complete time series or the calibration period (= period with historical data) for each disturbance type, and their sum kt

35 STEP 2a fill in gaps in time series (do not use interpolation) if no direct time series is available, proxies and other methods may be used (e.g., AR time series from FM time series) exclude emissions from salvage logging from the time series

36 Because the area can change for both FM

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38 STEP 2b report: total annual emissions total annual area by category area specific annual emissions

39 STEP 2b FM/AR, t

40 STEP 3 Develop the BL separately for FM and AR select and apply default or alternative method if necessary: use area-specific values to develop area-specific background level = bl multiply bl by the actual area under FM/AR during the time period accounted for (year or the average area during the commitment period)

41 STEP 3 Projected mean area for the CP: FM

42 STEP 3 Projected mean area for the CP: AR

43 STEP 3-a iterative process of the default method (using area-specific data) 1. calculate mean for all years with data in the background group 2. calculate standard deviation (STD) 3. exclude emissions > mean + 2*STD 4. repeat 1-3 until there are no more outliers 5. bl = lastly calculated mean 6. BL = bl * projected area

44 STEP 4 Margin: default method Margin = 2*lastly calculated STD (practically ensures zero credit/debit)

45 STEP 3-b BL: alternative method frequency emissions

46 STEP 3-b for BL to be appropriate frequency BL emissions

47 STEP 3-b.. the sum of all emissions below BL frequency BL emissions

48 STEP 3-b must equal to the sum of all emissions between BL and BL+Margin frequency BL Margin outlier emissions emissions

49 STEP 3-b BL can be smaller than the average, the minimum historical (projected) emission, or 0 frequency BL Margin outlier emissions emissions

50 STEP 4 Margin, alternative method: must be set accordingly, 0 or 0 (respectively) frequency BL Margin outlier emissions emissions

51 For all methods: Background group: emissions <= BL + margin

52 STEP 5 Ensure there is no expectation of credits/debits by checking: data sources, assumptions, estimation methodologies items (1) (4) in Box no disregarded trend BL is the mean of emissions in the background group BL is tested for all years in the calibration period only emissions > BL are excluded, and only when they are > BL + Margin

53 FINAL STEPS Ensure consistency with FMRL by applying Technical Correction if necessary (relative to the FMRL reported earlier) Report transparently all methodological elements

54 although emissions from NDs have been low historically for many countries, the question is not whether NDs of large emissions will occur or not, rather, when Photo: Ipolyerdő Zrt.