11/4/13. Chenli Zhang M.S. Candidate The University of Tennessee Dept. of Forestry, Wildlife and Fisheries October 30, :20.

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1 11/4/13 Chenli Zhang M.S. Candidate The University of Tennessee Dept. of Forestry, Wildlife and Fisheries October 30, :20 1. Background Information and Introduction 2. Objectives 3. Data 4. Methods 5. Preliminary Results 6. Acknowledgements 7. Photo Citations 8. References } GHG Emission CO2 (77%) Other (23%) P1 (IPCC 2007) 1

2 } Carbon Dioxide Emissions Total U.S. carbon emissions from energy consumption peaked at about 6 billion metric tons in Projections for this year are around 5.2 billion. P2 (IPCC 2007) } Carbon Sequestration in American Forests 1. The United States has 155 National Forests covering more than 188 million acres (~762,000 km 2 ). Private Forest? 2. U.S. forests currently serve as a carbon 'sink', offsetting approximately 16% of U.S. emissions from burning fossil fuels. 3. Forests and long-lived wood products currently offset 310 million metric tons of U.S. fossil fuel emissions of carbon } Tennessee Forest 1. Tennessee forests covered over14.3million acres (5,826,000 hectares) in 2002, or more than 50% of the state's total land area. 2. Commercial timberlands in 2002 totaled over 13.9 million acres (5,648,000 hectares) 3. About 95% of Tennessee's timber is in hardwoods, and nearly one-half of that is in white and red oak. Available at: 2

3 } Current Forest Rotation Length 1. Even Aged 2. Uneven Aged Most managers/analysts ignore the carbon value when calculating the optimal rotation length. } Carbon Sequestration In Forests & Wood Products - plus avoided emissions P3 Carbon storage over time under a no-harvest scenario compared to a sequence of 45-year rotation harvests (Ryan, M. G. et al. 2010) } 1. Project the tree volume in Tennessee for 100 years using FVS. } 2. Calculate the Present Value of carbon, based on the projected tree volume. } 3. Determine the distribution of the carbon in trees and products after harvest. } 4. Using the long-lived carbon value, timber prices, and management costs, estimate the optimal rotation length by forest type. 3

4 } FIA data } Timber Price data } Cost data } Carbon Price data Project the Tennessee future volume: FVS The Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) is an individual-tree, distance-independent, growth and yield model. Carbon Present Value Where i= Forest type FVS= Simulated volume for trees r= Discount rate yr= Rotation length p= Carbon price α= The tree volume conversion coefficient 4

5 Timber PV Basic Faustmann formulation PV F = (1 - e -rt ) -1 [pƒ(t) e -rt c] where p = timber price T = timber rotation function c = regeneration cost r = discount rate Optimal Rotation Length Max: Carbon PV+Timber PV Optimal Rotation Length CARBON PRICE - /tonne 5

6 Land Expectation Value ( /ha) 1, , , , , Timber/C Timber ROTATION LENGTH } Dr. Donald G. Hodges } Dr. Adam Taylor } Mr. Matt Holt } TDF } USDA Forest Service P1 EPA Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Data, 2007 available at: global.html P1 EPA Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Data, 2007 available at: global.html P3 Extension America s Research Based Network 2010 available at: 6

7 Adams, R. M., D. M. Adams, J. M. Calla-way, C. Chang, and B. McCarl "Sequestering Carbon on Agricultural Land: Social Cost and Impacts on Timber Markets." Contemporary Policy Issues 11(1): Amacher, G.S, Ollikainen, M, and Koskela, E Economics of Forest Resources Baccini, A., S. J. Goetz, W. S. Walker, N. T. Laporte, M. Sun, D. Sulla-Menashe, J. Hacker, P. S. A. Beck, R. Dubayah, M. A. Fridel, S. Samanta, and R. A. Houghton Estimated Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Tropical Deforestation Improved by Carbon-Density Maps. Nature Climate Change 2(11)Pages:: Birdsey, R.A., and L. S. Heath Carbon Changes in US Forests. Productivity of America s Forests and Climate Change, ed. L.A. Joyce, General Technical Report RM-271. Fort Collins, CO: USDA Forest Service. Boden, T.A., G. Marland, and R.J. Andres Global, Regional, and National Fossil-Fuel CO 2 Emissions. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U.S.A. doi /CDIAC/ 00001_V2010 Heath, L.S., J. E. Smith, and R. A. Birdsey Carbon Trends in US Forest Lands: A Context for the Role of Soils in Forest Carbon Sequestration. The Potential of US Forest Soils to Sequester Carbon and Mitigate The Greenhouse Effect, eds. pp , New York: CRC Press. Naughton-Treves, L Land Tenure and Tropical Forest Carbon Management. World Development, In press. Ryan, M.G., M.E. Harmon, R.A. Birdsey, C.P. Giardina, L.S. Heath, R.A. Houghton, R.B. Jackson, D.C. McKinley, J.F. Morrison, B.C. Murray, D.E. Pataki, and K.E. Skog A Synthesis of the Science on Forests and Carbon for U.S. Forests. Issues in Ecology, Report Number 13, Spring Schulz, K. G., and U. Riebesell Diurnal Changes in Seawater Carbonate Chemistry Speciation at Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide. Marine Biology 35(19): Woodbury, P. B., J. E. Smith, L. S. Heath Carbon Sequestration in the U.S. Forest Sector from 1990 to Forest Ecology and Management 241(1): Zaehle, S Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions Reach New Record High New Meta-Analysis Results Indicate That 2-Degree Target Is Unlikely to Be Met. Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry. Available at: Questions? 7