Budget10 released on 5 December 2011 ppt version 8 December Carbon Budget
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1 Budget10 released on 5 December 2011 ppt version 8 December 2011 Carbon Budget 2010
2 GCP - Carbon Budget 2010 Contributors Thomas A. Boden Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee USA Gordon Bonan National Centre for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA Laurent Bopp Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l Environnement, UMR, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, France Erik Buitenhuis School of Environment Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK Ken Caldeira Depart. of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Stanford, USA Josep G. Canadell Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Canberra, Australia Philippe Ciais Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l Environnement, UMR CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, France Thomas J. Conway NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, USA Steven Davis Depart. of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Stanford, USA Scott C. Doney Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA Pierre Friedlingstein Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l Environnement, France QUEST, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, UK Joe L. Hackler Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, Massachusetts, USA Christoph Heinze University of Bergen, Norway Richard A. Houghton Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, Massachusetts, USA Corinne Le Quéré Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, UK Andrew Lenton CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Tasmania, Australia Ivan Lima Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA Gregg Marland Research Institute for Environment, Energy and Economics, Appalachian State University, Boone, North Carolina, USA Glen P. Peters Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo, Norway Michael R. Raupach Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Canberra, Australia Stephen Sitch School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK Jerry Tijputra University of Bergen, Norway
3 GCP - Carbon Budget Peters GP, Marland G, Le Quéré C, Boden T, Canadell JG, Raupach MR (2011) Rapid growth in CO 2 emissions after the global financial crisis. Nature Climate Change, doi /nclimate1332. Published online 4 December
4 Units 1 Pg = 1 Petagram = 1x10 15 g = 1 Billion metric tons = 1 Gigaton 1 Tg = 1 Teragram = 1x10 12 g = 1 Million metric tons 1 Kg Carbon (C) = 3.67 Kg Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 )
5 Fossil Fuel & Cement CO 2 Emissions Growth rate % per year Growth rate % yr Growth rate % per year Growth rate % per year - Uncertainty (6-10%) + Peters et al. 2011, Nature CC; Data: Boden, Marland, Andres-CDIAC 2011; Marland et al. 2009
6 Fossil Fuel CO 2 Emissions: Top Emitters Carbon Emissions per year (C tons x 1,000,000) India Russian Fed. Time (y) China USA Japan 2010 Growth Rates % 4.1% 9.4% 5.8% 6.8% Global Carbon Project 2011; Peters et al. 2011, Nature CC; Data: Boden, Marland, Andres-CDIAC 2011
7 Fossil Fuel CO 2 Emissions: Profile Examples Carbon Emissions per year (C tons x 1,000,000) UK Denmark Canada Time (y) Australia Spain The Netherlands Global Carbon Project 2011; Peters et al. 2011, Nature CC; Data: Boden, Marland, Andres-CDIAC 2011
8 Fossil Fuel CO 2 Emissions Growth in 2010 Peters et al. 2011, Nature CC, Supplementary Information
9 Fossil Fuel CO 2 Emissions (Production and Consumption) Peters et al. 2011, Nature CC
10 Impacts of Economic Crises on C Emissions Peters et al. 2011, Nature CC
11 Top 20 CO 2 FF Emitters & Per Capita Emissions Total Carbon Emissions (tons x 1,000,000) Per Capita Emissions (tons C person y -1 ) Global Carbon Project 2011; Data: Boden, Marland, Andres-CDIAC 2011; Population World Bank 2011
12 CO 2 Emissions by Fossil Fuel Type CO 2 emissions (PgC y -1 ) Gas Cement Time (y) Coal 41% Oil 34% 2010 Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Data: Boden, Marland, Andres-CDIAC 2011
13 Change in CO 2 Emissions from Coal (2008 to 2010) % of growth CO 2 emissions (Tg C y -1 ) China India Dev. world World Developed World Global Carbon Project 2011; Data: Boden, Marland, Andres-CDIAC 2011
14 Carbon in Trade (2004): Emissions embodied in products Net exporting countries (blues) to net importing countries (reds) Davis et al. 2011, PNAS; See also
15 CO 2 Emissions from FF and LUC ( ) Current LUC emissions ~10% of total CO 2 emissions Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience
16 CO 2 Emissions from Land Use Change CO 2 emissions (PgC y -1 ) ±0.7 PgCy ±0.7 PgCy s Emissions: 1.5±0.7 PgC Emissions: 1.1±0.7 PgC Dashed line previous estimate. Time (y) Friedlingstein et al. 2010, Nature Geoscience; Data: RA Houghton, GFRA 2010
17 Emissions from Land Use Change ( ) CO 2 emissions (TgC y -1 ) Tropical Temperate Time (y) R.A. Houghton 2010, personal communication; GFRA 2010
18 Emissions from Land Use Change ( ) CO 2 emissions (Tg C y -1 ) 1000 Latin America 800 S & SE Asia Tropical Africa Time (y) R.A. Houghton 2010, personal communication; GFRA 2010
19 Atmospheric CO 2 Concentration End of 2010: ppm Annual Growth Rates (decadal means) : 1.3 ppm y : 1.6 ppm y : 1.5 ppm y : 1.9 ppm y -1 Annual Mea Growth Rate (ppm y -1 ) Data Source: Thomas Conway, 2011, NOAA/ESRL + Scripts Institution
20 Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget (PgC y -1 ) 7.9± ± ±1.0 (Residual) 4.1± ±0.5 (5 models) Global Carbon Project 2011; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature G; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
21 Fate of Anthropogenic CO 2 Emissions (2010) 9.1±0.5 PgC y ±0.2 PgC y -1 50% 2.6±1.0 PgC + y-1 0.9±0.7 PgC y 26% -1 Calculated as the residual of all other flux components 24% 2.4±0.5 PgC y -1 Average of 5 models Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
22 References cited in this ppt Boden TA, Marland G, Andres RJ (2011) Global, Regional, and National Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U.S.A. doi /CDIAC/00001_V Canadell JG et al. (2007) Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks. PNAS 104: , Davis SJ, Peters GP, Caldeira K (2011). The Supply Chain of CO2 Emissions. PNAS v.108, doi: /pnas Davis S, Caldeira K (2010) Consumption-based accounting of CO2 emissions. PNAS 107: Friedlingstein P, Houghton RA, Marland G, Hackler J, Boden TA, Conway TJ, Canadell JG, Raupach MR, Ciais P, Le Quéré C. Update on CO2 emissions. Nature Geoscience, DOI /ngeo_1022, Online 21 November Global Forest Resources Assessment (2010) Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations; Global Carbon Project (2011) Carbon budget and trends International Monetary Fund (2011) World economic outlook. September Le Quéré C, Raupach MR, Canadell JG, Marland G et al. (2009) Trends in the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide. Nature geosciences, doi: /ngeo Marland, G., K. Hamal, et al. (2009) How Uncertain Are Estimates of CO2 Emissions? Journal of Industrial Ecology 13: Peters GP, Marland G, Le Quéré C, Boden T, Canadell JG, Raupach MR (2011) Rapid growth in CO2 emissions after the global financial crisis. Nature Climate Change, doi /nclimate1332. Published online 4 December Peters G P, Minx J C, Weber C L, Edenhofer O (2011) Growth in emissions transfer via international trade from 1990 to Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 108: Conway T, Tans P (2011) Trends in atmospheric carbon dioxide. NOAA/ESRL van der Werf et al. (2010) Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural, and peat fires ( ). Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 10,
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