Sustainability Modelling and Case Study

Transcription

1 Sustainability Modelling and Case Study Dr. Thomas Tang May,7, 2013

2 Outline Sustainability dealing with future change What does a sustainable city look like? SSIM TM Case study How do we make Hong Kong sustainable? Wrap up May 7, 2013 Page 2

3 Sustainability and Sustainable Development Sustainability is about a changing world and the ability of organizations to evolve with the change. Sustainable Development differs from sustainability in that the former is the broader spectrum of environmental, social and economic well-being of the context in which a society / an organization operates.

4 Changes that are coming Now Future Environment Social Economic Consumption of resources (i.e. materials, water, energy) Search for more efficient ways of using resources. Finding and retaining talent. Growing awareness of social responsibility Diverse and versatile workforce. Capitalism models Social partnership models Smaller is better. Innovative design for environment products. Kinder, equitable society reflected in organizational cultures May 7, 2013 Page 4

5 Challenges of the Future Growing urban populations Share of urbanization: 29% in 1950 rising to 50% in By 2030, world is expected to reach 60:40 split between urban and rural populations. Demands on resources For every member of the world s population to enjoy a Western lifestyle, it would require 3.8 Planet Earths. A changing climate There is broad scientific agreement that emissions of heat-trapping gases from the burning of fossil fuels make a significant contribution to global warming. Eco-Cities May 7, 2013 Page 5

6 Principles for Sustainable Planning Mobile populations Optimal building density Greater adoption of renewable energy Urban water demand management Large park systems and open spaces with extensive greenery and natural ventilation Reduced urban sprawl and construction of green buildings or green retro-fitting May 7, 2013 Page 6

7 WHAT DOES A SUSTAINABLE CITY LOOK LIKE? May 7, 2013 Page 7

8 What does a sustainable city look like? Advanced Information and Communication Technology Integrated waste management systems Efficient Social Infrastructure & Industrial Systems (elevators/escalators, public transit systems) Alternative/Renewable Energy Production (wind, solar, geothermal, biomass, cogeneration) Home, Building and Community Management Systems Intelligent Transportation Systems and Smart Parking Systems Smart Grid (smart meters, distributed generation, flexible pricing) and Heat Grid Electric Vehicles with Charging and Storage Networks Integrated Water, Wastewater and Waste Treatment May 7, 2013 Page 8

9 CDP Cities 2012 Report Over 70 cities are reporting their GHG emissions. Forty-two cities (58%) report that climate change poses a risk to their cities e.g. higher temperatures (warmer average temperatures, urban heat island, and heat waves) and more frequent or intense rainfall. Larger, denser cities tend to be more emissions-efficient due to infrastructure and economies of scale. Governments anticipate economic opportunities from climate change. Cities with emissions reduction targets report three times as many emissions reduction programs as those without targets. Many are looking for innovative solutions in response to climate change. Mobile data usage is expanding in cities and city governments are partnering with their citizens to put the data to work. May 7, 2013 Page 9

10 Case Studies Energy Use Energy efficiency/retrofit is the most popular demand-side energy action reported by cities. London s RE:FIT program, for example, has already retrofitted 86 public buildings in the city, and the program is ongoing. Rome s energy efficiency program is saving 600,000 tonnes of CO2e over lifetime. Sydney reports a number of energy efficiency programs, estimated to be saving 321,000 tonnes CO2e per year by Cities are making investments in Combined Heat and Power (CHP), which is the most popular action reported in the energy supply category. Buenos Aires Melbourne encourages the installation of combined heat and power in private developments, with a target to achieve 400MW of installed, distributed CHP in the city. Berlin is using CHP to support its district heating system. May 7, 2013 Page 10

11 Case Studies - Transport Transport actions focus on improving the efficiency of existing transport networks, and land overhauls designed to make cities less reliant on cars Houston s light rail expansion currently in pilot will eventually include 5 new rail lines and connect each major activity center in the city. Portland s East Side Streetcar opened in 2012, and the city is connecting this streetcar to more areas of the city. Moscow is making its buses and freight systems more fuel efficient. Other actions on transport involve creating infrastructure for non-motorized transport. Paris estimates its efforts to improve its infrastructure for non-motorized transport will save the city up to 600,000 tonnes CO2e. Rio de Janeiro provides estimates of the GHG reduction potential for every one of its transport actions, totaling an anticipated lifetime reduction of over 500,000 tonnes CO2e. Seattle recently completed a master plan for cycling and walking. Rio de Janeiro May 7, 2013 Page 11

12 Case Studies Water Use Reported actions on water, water metering and billing are the most popular emissions reduction action. Vancouver has installed improved water meters in single-family homes over the past few years. San Francisco has undertaken an ambitious program to automate collection of water meter data using lowfrequency radio waves. Austin is piloting a purple-pipe system for redistributing non-potable water. Actions designed to capture and control stormwater are also reported. Tokyo reports a project to upgrade its trunk sewers and pumping stations in response to more intense rainfall and increasingly frequent storms. The city is simultaneously undertaking repairs to its water infrastructure to reduce leakages and improve efficiency. Philadelphia s Green City, Clean Waters plan reenvisions the stormwater infrastructure in the city and focuses heavily on green infrastructure as a highly beneficial alternative to traditional infrastructure. Vancouver May 7, 2013 Page 12

13 Case Studies Land use The most popular area of focus reported is forming eco-districts. Paris estimates that its Eco-District strategy will save the city 250,000 tonnes of CO2e over its lifetime. Stockholm s Royal Seaport, an eco-district development is slated for completion in 2025 The City of Melbourne is guided by existing policy efforts, including Melbourne s Zero-Net Emissions by 2020 and Total Watermark City as a Catchment to advance the city s overall sustainability goals through renewable energy, wastewater, and transit, as well as innovative land use and densification strategies. Seattle s Compact Cities strategy is part of the city s overall Comprehensive Plan. Adding/preserving green space and biodiversity is also reported. Rio de Janeiro is undertaking a comprehensive program to reduce deforestation in the city, coupled with a reforestation program. The city estimates that these two programs will save over 200,000 tonnes of CO2e. Paris May 7, 2013 Page 13

14 SUSTAINABLE SYSTEMS INTEGRATED MODEL TM May 7, 2013 Page 14

15 Sustainable Systems Integrated Model Organized around the core themes of: Mobility Energy Water Building technology Socio-cultural assets Ecology Carbon footprint Multi-step process utilizing modeling and cost-benefit analysis techniques to construct a sustainability and carbon reduction strategy. Optimization of the environmental value of the sustainability program to minimize cost relative to the benefits achieved and develop a low-carbon strategy and a sustainable new community. May 7, 2013 Page 15

16 Three stage process May 7, 2013 Page 16

17 Multi-step process Stage 1 GIS-based modeling tool used to compare alternative urban form solutions. Spatial analysis model used to measure aspects of urban form e.g. built form density, land use mix, walkability, proximity to transit and amenities, and number of dwelling units. Various modifications and improvements to masterplan framework and the land use program analyzed. Building Cities of the Future Stage 2 Core themes used e.g. building energy, transportation, water, public realm energy, ecological systems, socio-cultural infrastructure and urban heat islands. Good, better and best levels of increasing sustainability efficiency established. Models run to define which combination of strategies, measures and technologies work most effectively. March 30 Life-cycle 31, 2010 costing and Page cost 17 benefit analysis also carried out. Stage 3 Master Sustainability Program is set up based on total building energy savings, total reduction in vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT), total water savings, total reduction in GHG emissions, total initial costs and ongoing monthly costs. Master Programme is tested using various core theme packages until consistent with developer s goals, business plan and financial model. Often carbon reduction of percent can be attained.

18 CASE STUDY May 7, 2013 Page 18

19 Sustainable Design Case Study May 7, 2013 Page 19

20 The Site May 7, 2013 Page 20

21 3-Stage Process May 7, 2013 Page 21

22 STAGE A Presentation Title May 7, 2013 Page 22

23 Stage A Assessment May 7, 2013 Page 23

24 What could be achieved May 7, 2013 Page 24

25 STAGE B Presentation Title May 7, 2013 Page 25

26 Sustainability Strategies at Planning Level May 7, 2013 Page 26

27 Sustainability Strategies at Planning Level May 7, 2013 Page 27

28 Sustainability Strategies at Parcel Level May 7, 2013 Page 28

29 Sustainability Strategies at Parcel Level May 7, 2013 Page 29

30 Sustainability Strategies at Parcel Level May 7, 2013 Page 30

31 Sustainability Strategies at Parcel Level May 7, 2013 Page 31

32 STAGE C Presentation Title May 7, 2013 Page 32

33 Master Sustainability Program Development Master Program Comparison and Recommendation Total Energy Reduction Building Energy Reduction Aspirational Targets PERFORMANCE Program 1: Aspiration Optimal Program 2: Payback Efficient Program 3: Sustainability Maximum Program 4: Carbon Focus 35% 35.0% 26.2% 38.3% 33.5% 30% 33.4% 26.2% 36.7% 31.9% PCEKT Reduction 10% 9.2% 10.0% 14.3% 9.9% Municipal Water Reduction 30% 42.3% 20.3% 42.3% 42.3% Stormwater Quality Improvement 50% 83.2% 30.0% 83.2% 83.2% UHI Intensity Project Green Plot Ratio Habitat Creation 50ha 51ha 51ha 91ha 51ha Recycle Rate 78% 78% 79.5% 87.2% 78% Carbon Reduction 30% 31% 24% 36% 30% TOTAL COST Total Capital Cost Increase 8.0% 5.0% 10.3% 6.7% Total Government Capital Cost Increase 14.1% 10.9% 20.8% 12.8% Total Developer Capital Cost Increase 7.5% 4.5% 9.4% 6.2% Discounted Payback 7.7 yrs 4.7 yrs 10 yrs Years 5.6 yrs

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35 Recap Sustainability modeling involves: Identifying which alternative masterplan provides the highest level of sustainability Producing a Master Sustainability Program for the design and construction of infrastructure, the public realm and buildings Identifying which carbon reduction and offset strategies will deliver the lowest cost per ton of GHG reduction Obtaining capital, recurring and lifecycle cost estimates and cost/benefit analyses for alternative sustainability strategies Attributing costs and benefits to various pre-defined cost centers government, developers and endusers May 7, 2013 Page 35

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37 HOW DO WE MAKE HONG KONG SUSTAINABLE? May 7, 2013 Page 37

38 Thank You