TU Bergakademie Freiberg Recent Development in Carbon Asset Managment Eng. Rodrigo Murillo, MSc, MBA. Mathematical modelling of carbon sequestration

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1 TU Bergakademie Freiberg Recent Development in Carbon Asset Managment Mathematical modelling of carbon sequestration

2 Agenda Forrests role on climate change mitigation Standing Trees Biomass Inventory Root s Biomass Non related tree vegetation biomass Dead Biomass Soil Biomass Carbon sequestering model exemple 2

3 Agenda Forrests role on climate change mitigation Standing Trees Biomass Inventory Root s Biomass Non related tree vegetation biomass Dead Biomass Soil Biomass Carbon sequestering model exemple 3

4 Carbon sequestering is a logic Climate Change Mitigation Mechanism They exist two major ways to influence positively the current CO2 levels in the atmosphere. Reduce CO2 emissions in the atmosphere Capture more CO2 from the atmosphere and fix it the biosphere

5 Kyoto Protocol promotes carbon sequestration as a form of Carbon Offset Carbon Sink Definition Ecosystem that acts as a reservoir and it capable to accumulate and store carbon for an indefinite period. There are two natural sink for carbon sequestering: Oceans Trees, plants and algaes (Vetegation) CO2 Carbon Sink CO2

6 Oceans capture approximately one third of anthropogenic emissions. (1) Oceans as carbon sinks Solubility Pump: Main Mechanism Biological Pump: Negligable (1) Takahashi, T.; S. C. Sutherland, C. Sweeney, A. Poisson, N. Metzl, B. Tilbrook, N. Bates, R. Wanninkhof, R. A. Feely, C. Sabine, J. Olafsson and Y. C. Nojiri (2002). "Global sea-air CO2 flux based on climatological surface ocean pco2, and seasonal biological and temperature effects". Deep Sea Research II 49:

7 Approximatelly 50% of forrests biomass is carbon Forrests as main carbon sinks Creation of methodologies for measuring: Current Carbon Inventories Carbon changes within timelines

8 Assesing current CO2 sequestered and CO2 sequestering potential is the basis for CDM programs Importance of Estimations Ex Ante Ex Post Base for negociating carbon credits Base for emission of carbon credits Bibliography Best practices manuals Similar experiances in other regions Sampling data obtained from the limits of the project Same calculation methodology, different data origen

9 CO2 sequetered is intrinsically related to Growth Rate and Total Size of a particular tree species Modelation of carbon sequestering Growth rate Shape Total Biomass Total carbon content in the ecologycal system

10 The total carbon content of the Dry Biomass is estimated between 45% 50% of the Total Biomass Carbon content to total dry biomass ratio Direct or Indirect measurements Depends on the species Reference tables (IPCC ) are used Specific studies General practical rule: Aprox 45 50% Total Biomass Ratio Total Dry Biomass Total Carbon Content Ratio

11 The total carbon content of the Dry Biomass is estimated between 45% 50% of the Total Biomass Carbon Fraction of Aboveground Forrest Biomass (IPCC)

12 Biomass measuring is the key in determining the total carbon content of an ecosystem Variables to be taken into account when determining biomass Standing trees inventories Root biomass Non tree related vegetation (bushes, pastures) Dead biomass (Necromass) Soil biomass

13 Agenda Forrests role on climate change mitigation Standing Trees Biomass Inventory Root s Biomass Non related tree vegetation biomass Dead Biomass Soil Biomass Carbon sequestering model exemple 13

14 Carbon sequestered estimations for a given especies is made by using hierarchical aproximative methodologies Typical data source hierarchy Especific data by especies and region National factors information Regional factors information Default values from IPCC Precision Trade Off Cost, effort, tecnical requirements

15 Alometric biomass models are usually delevolped using variables that are easilly measurable Commun variables used in alometric models Wood Density Total Height Commercial Height DBH

16 A proper sampling method and measuring technic is the key on obtaining quality data Sampling size Destructive sampling How many trees? < 20 distributed in all the range of diameters expected in the project is Representative

17 Field and lab measuments are required in order to gather data Measurements are made for the different parts of the tree Ratio Green Mass \ Dry Mass Biomass

18 Alometric charts are usually calculated as a primary fuction of BDH Example of an alometric chart

19 The best quality data for creating growing models is obtained from permant growing plots Permant growing plot Data sources for alometric growth models Temporal growing plot Plots with known ages Bibligraphy Stem analysis (Destructive and Non Destructive) Creating a model based on the number of rings Cost-Benefit analysis

20 Biomass Factor Expansion is key measure to indirectly determine the total tree biomass Biomass Factor Expansion Dy mass of tree s comercial shaft (from stump to top s beginning Biomass tree shaft (SB) Total Aboveground Biomass (TB) Dry mass of all tree s vegetal matter above ground Biomass Factor Expansion (BEF) TB = SB

21 Biomass Factor Expansion is key measure to indirectly determine the total tree s biomass Species Enviromental conditons Plantation density Age of the tree population Empirical measurments Factors that determine BEF Average BEF of biomass measured on several trees Regression to determine an equation usually on two variables: Biomass and Total s Shaft Volume Bibliography IPCC

22 Cost Benefit Analisys the driver regarding choosing the method to be used. Decision making on deciding the use of default values or empirical studies FEB value is one of the most sensitive factors at the time of determining carbon sequered estimation and the CERs for the project.

23 The empiral methods are more accurate in determined the BEF Exemple of a BEF vrs BDH chart BEF Every year the number of BEF measuring studies for particular especies are published throughout the world

24 IPCC s BCEF reference value contains both BEF values and Biomass Coversion Factors BCEF Values according to IPCC Generic Values (no detail for particular species): Higher errors to be incorporated in an Uncertainty analysis

25 Agenda Forrests role on climate change mitigation Standing Trees Biomass Inventory Root s Biomass Non related tree vegetation biomass Dead Biomass Soil Biomass Carbon sequestering model exemple 25

26 Methods to measure root s biomass are costly and not standarized compared to those for above ground biomass Direct Two main choices for root biomass assessment Indirect (Bibliography) Cilyndric soil samples Soil pits Small and medium size roots Big roots IPCC Biomass equations No difference between dead and live roots Allometric studies Extrapolate Not useful for plantations becuase they were made for natural forrest Above ground below ground ratios

27 In practical experiances Root Biomass is measure by using IPCC reference values Ratio of Below to Above Ground Biomass Reference IPCC value

28 Agenda Forrests role on climate change mitigation Standing Trees Biomass Inventory Root s Biomass Non related tree vegetation biomass Dead Biomass Soil Biomass Carbon sequestering model exemple 28

29 Methodology for shrub CO2 sequestered assesment is plot destructive sampling Direct (Lab) Plot Gridding Cut Typical shrub CO2 sequestered measurement Indirect Equations and Bibligraphy Mass measuring (weighing) Dry Burning Biomass content Carbon \ Biomass ratio Alometric equations Bibligraphy

30 Below ground biomass on shrub vegation is calculated using the same methodology employed in tree s root biomass Direct Two main choices for root biomass assessment Indirect (Bibliography) Cilyndric soil samples Soil pits No difference between dead and live roots Allometric studies Extrapolate Above ground below ground ratios

31 Carbon sequestered in shrub vegetation is only considered in the Base Line and usually negligable for the project Consideration of shrub biomass Emissions due to pastures and bushes elimination at the beginning of the project Only consider in two scenarios Food production for cattle projects Agroforestry projects

32 Agenda Forrests role on climate change mitigation Standing Trees Biomass Inventory Root s Biomass Non related tree vegetation biomass Dead Biomass Soil Biomass Carbon sequestering model exemple 32

33 For plantation project the measurement of dead wood is negligable Dead wood biomass assesment Density: fresh, dry, rotten Fallen Method 1 Between 10% - 15% of Above ground biomass Method 2 Higher than 15% of Above ground biomass Dead Wood 1 plot sample per hectar Several plots samples per hectar Average size On foot Same methodology as standing tree 20% less of biomass from the allometric value given

34 Agenda Forrests role on climate change mitigation Standing Trees Biomass Inventory Root s Biomass Non related tree vegetation biomass Dead Biomass Soil Biomass Carbon sequestering model exemple 34

35 Most of carbon in ecosystems is store in the form of Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) High variance of SOC Low build up (1 tc / year) SOC Assesment The methodology for assessing SOC is not standarized Main Variables affecting SOC Climate Soil type Plantation species Soil management It is considered stable or positive in plantation projects

36 Aproximatelly 50% of carbon fixed in tree vegetation goes into soil by in the rottening process Carbon cycle Fallen leaves Rotten roots 50% Dead branches In reforestation projects (<20 years) the carbon delta is negligable

37 Agenda Forrests role on climate change mitigation Standing Trees Biomass Inventory Root s Biomass Non related tree vegetation biomass Dead Biomass Soil Biomass Carbon sequestering model exemple 37

38 In most of Reforestation Reforestation and Aforestation CDM projects only two factors are considered Variables to be taken into account when determining biomass Standing trees inventories Root biomass Non tree related vegetation (bushes, pastures) Dead biomass (Necromass) Soil biomass

39 Practical Exemple: Teak Wood (Tectona Grandis)

40 Empirical Equations of Height vrs Time for several species in Latinamerican Tropical Rain Forest

41 Real Exemple of Tectona Grandis growth chart (Study carried out in Costa Rica)

42 Empirical Equations of Height vrs Time for several species in Latinamerican Tropical Rain Forest Tree height growing strategy models Chosen Height Model for Tectona Grandis

43 Empirical Equations of Diameter / Height Ratio vrs Density for several species in Latinamerican Tropical Rain Forest N (trees / hectar)

44 Empirical Equations of Diameter / Height Ratio vrs Density for several species in Latinamerican Tropical Rain Forest Diameter growing strategy models Chosen Diameter Model for Tectona Grandis Diameter / Height Ratio for 1000 tree per hectar density

45 Empirical Equation for Net Commercial Shaft Volume for Tectona Grandis Morfic factor: Convergece to the min value of Average of porcentages change between real and estimated values Equation used in Net Commercial Shaft Volume Calculation Commercial Volume (cubic meter / hectar) * π * D² * H = 1000 trees per hectar * N

46 Commercial Stem Cubic Value Projection for 25 years T Hd Density D Commercial Cubic Value (stem) (years) (m) (tree / hectar) (cm) (m3 / hectar)

47 Commercial Stem Cubic Value Projection for 25 years Increment in volume per year Time (years) Cuic meters per hectar

48 Real Exemple of Tectona Grandis yearly growth chart (Study carried out in Costa Rica)

49 IPCC reference values could be used for plantation growth projection Above Ground Net Biomass Growth in Tropical Plantations

50 Commercial shaft volume is converted into Net Above Ground biomass by using the IPCC BCEFs reference value and then using the Below Ground Biomass Factor BCEF Values from IPCC for Tropical Forrest Ratio Below Ground Biomass to Above Ground Biomass (IPCC)

51 Conversion into tons of carbon and tons of CO2 equivalent Carbon Fraction of Forrest Biomass (CF) according to IPCC Ratio CO2 to C Ratio CO2 to C = = 3.67

52 Total tons of CO2 sequestered Above / Below Carbon content / Morphic factor CO2 / C ratio Ground Ratio Biomass Commercial Volum (stem) Factor Conversion and Expantion Factor (BCEF) Total Biomass Above Ground Total Biomass Below ground Total Biomass Total Carbon in Biomass Total CO2 sequestered T (years) (m3 / hectar) (tons / hectar) (tons / hectar) (tons / hectar) (tc / hectar) tco2e / hectar

53 Simulation Hd Density D Commercia l Volum (stem) Factor Conversion and Expantion Factor Total Biomass Above Ground Total Biomass Below ground Total Biomass Total Carbon in Biomass Total CO2 sequestered (m3 / (tons / (tons / (tons / (tco2e / (tc / hectar) (m) (tree / hectar) (cm) hectar) hectar) hectar) hectar) hectar)

54 Thank you Questions 54

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58 IPCC wood density reference values

59 Estimated Biomass values per Ecological Zone