The Wat er Agency, Inc. Water Supply Update

Transcription

1 Rain Accumulation as of 2 p.m. Today Another weekend storm brought rain and snow to California. (559) /16/2015 Page 1

2 Long Range Forecast The Climate Prediction Center/NCEP issued its new Update on November 16, 2015: ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory El Niño conditions are present.* Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across most of the Pacific Ocean. El Niño will likely peak during Northern Hemisphere winter , with a transition to ENSOneutral anticipated during the late spring or early summer 2016.* * Note: These statements (and the following charts) are updated at least once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion: pages 8 and 22 (559) /16/2015 Page 2

3 Thankfully, California had precipitation last week. (559) /16/2015 Page 3

4 Northern Sierra Precipitation As of the morning of November 16th, the 8-station Northern California index has recorded 4.3 inches of precipitation (up 1.3 inches from last week). This represents 68% of the typical average rainfall to date. The average total for the normal season is 50.0 inches. (559) /16/2015 Page 4

5 San Joaquin Precipitation As of the morning of November 16th, the 5-station San Joaquin index has recorded 6.3 inches of precipitation (up 1.5 inches from last week). This represents 137% of the typical average rainfall to date. The average total for the normal season is 40.8 inches. (559) /16/2015 Page 5

6 Tulare Lake Basin Precipitation As of the morning of November 16th, the 6-station Tulare Basin index has recorded 4.7 inches of precipitation (up 1.7 inches from last week). This represents 164% of the typical average rainfall to date. The average total for the normal season is 29.3 inches. (559) /16/2015 Page 6

7 6-10 day Precipitation Forecast: 6-10 day Temperature Forecast: (559) /16/2015 Page 7

8 8-14 day Precipitation Forecast: 8-14 day Temperature Forecast: (559) /16/2015 Page 8

9 November Precipitation Forecast: November Temperature Forecast: (559) /16/2015 Page 9

10 November January Precipitation Forecast: November January Temperature Forecast: (559) /16/2015 Page 10

11 (559) /16/2015 Page 11

12 Reservoir Storage Northern California reservoirs are between 29-51% of historical average and 14-30% of capacity Oroville and Folsom are both down 1% from last week. The central ones are between 15-81% of historical average and 7-32% of capacity. San Luis is up 1% in capacity from last week. (559) /16/2015 Page 12

13 Current Conditions Data Available on More Reservoirs The Department of Water Resources has added several reservoirs to their Current Conditions page. See the complete list of reservoirs available and the link to this information below. (559) /16/2015 Page 13

14 San Luis Reservoir Storage As of November 15th, San Luis storage is at 393,297AF and is at 19% of capacity (up 20,415AF from last week and up 1% in capacity). The historical average is at 34% for this time of year. (559) /16/2015 Page 14

15 Federal Storage within San Luis Reservoir As of November 15th, federal storage was at 95,095AF (9.85% full up 15,894AF from last week) and compares to 191,000AF one year ago..total federal storage capacity is 965,655AF. The federal share of the reservoir is approximately 24% of the 15-year average of 403,000AF. State Storage within San Luis Reservoir As of November 15th, state storage was at 298,202AF (now at 28.07% capacity up 4,521AF in the last week). The total state storage capacity in SLR is 1,062,180AF. Total State and Federal storage reported is 393,297AF. The reservoir is at 19% of capacity. (559) /16/2015 Page 15

16 Shasta Storage As of November 15th, storage was approximately 1,368,110AF (down 13,816AF and at 30% of capacity unchanged from last week) and compares to 1,064,000AF one year ago. The current level is 51% of the historical average. Total capacity of Shasta is about 4,552,000AF. Shasta s weekly average inflows are about 6,700AF/day, and outflows are about 7,970AF/day as of Sunday. Inflows Reservoir graphs from: Outflows (559) /16/2015 Page 16

17 Trinity Lake Storage As of November 15th, storage was approximately 491,947AF with capacity being at 20% (down 4,898AF and unchanged in capacity from last week) and compares to 555,000 one year ago. The current level is 31% of the historical average. Net inflows for the past week averaged 153AF/day. Total capacity of the Trinity is about 2,448,000AF. On Sunday, releases to the Trinity River were about 567AF/day. Inflows Outflows (559) /16/2015 Page 17

18 Oroville Storage As of November 15th, storage was approximately 959,788AF (down 20,931AF and at 27% capacity down 1% of capacity from last week) and compares to 907,000AF one year ago. The current level is 45% of the historical average. Inflows for the past week averaged 1,132AF/ day. Total capacity of Oroville is 3,538,000AF. Current releases into the Feather River as of Sunday have gone to 3,624AF/day. Inflows Outflows (559) /16/2015 Page 18

19 Folsom Storage As of November 15th, storage was approximately 140,501AF (down 2,737AF and at 14% capacity down 1% of capacity from last week) and compares to 286,000AF one year ago. The current level is 29% of the historical average. Inflows for the past week averaged 806AF/day. Total capacity of Folsom is 977,000AF. As of Sunday, releases were about 801AF/day. Inflows Outflows (559) /16/2015 Page 19

20 Friant Storage As of November 15th, storage was about 168,392AF (down 2,810AF and at 32% capacity down 1% of capacity from last week) and compares to 178,000AF one year ago. The current level is 81% of the historical average. Inflows for the last week averaged about 100AF/day. Total capacity of Friant is 520,500AF. On Sunday, 41CFS was released into the Friant/Kern Canal, 0CFS was released into the Madera Canal, and 177CFS was released into the San Joaquin River, which is within the critical year flow of about CFS. The eight upstream San Joaquin River reservoirs are about 29% full, holding 180,345AF of their 611,688AF capacity. Inflows Outflows (559) /16/2015 Page 20

21 New Melones Storage As of November 15th, storage was approximately 265,774AF, up 798AF and at 11% capacity unchanged in capacity from last week) and compares to 504,000AF one year ago. The current level is 20% of the historical average. Inflows for the past week averaged 795AF/day. Total capacity of New Melones is 2,400,000AF. Current releases to the Stanislaus River have been adjusted to 809AF/day. Inflows Outflows (559) /16/2015 Page 21

22 The really maddening part of the incredible waste of water has happened during flood flow events. Layer after layer of environmental rules like the Endangered Species Act Biological Opinions for the Delta Smelt and Salmonids have caused so many pumping restrictions. In all of the last 20 months, only one day in mid-december 2014 saw the pumps at Tracy pumped at the maximum permitted level. Those restrictive maximum State Water Resource Control Board pumping levels shown by the yellow line below are set at about 2/3 of the actual capacity of the pumps in Tracy which is shown by the red line. When the blue line of actual inflow into the Delta is above the red and yellow lines, you know that the excess is being dumped out to the ocean. Meanwhile Agricultural Water Allocations Are Set At Zero and Twenty Percent Agriculture Users received 0% allocation for this water year from the US Bureau of Reclamation on February 27, M&I users received enough to meet health and safety needs or 25% of historic use, whichever is greater. For the full announcement, go to the link: RecordID= As of the May 14, 2015, media release, the USBR says, the Friant Division is to have about 60,000 acre-feet of water made available As of March 2, 2015, the State Water Project Allocation has been increased from 15% to 20% for the 2015 year. For the press release, go to this link: That allocation is for both the agricultural users and the municipal and industrial users. (559) /16/2015 Page 22

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28 Disclaimer: The information contained herein is compiled from a number of sources. Some of what we report is gleaned from news articles or meetings we attend. While we strive for this information to be accurate, it may be in error, and much of the information and data contained herein is provisional and subject to future revisions. If you plan on using this information to make business decisions about your water assets or needs, we strongly suggest that you do your own independent verification of the accuracy of this information. The Wat er Agency, Inc. provides no guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Neither The Wat er A gency, Inc., nor any of the sources of the information contained herein are responsible for any errors or omissions, or for the use or results obtained from the use of this information. Please feel free to send us information or opinions, which are contrary to what we write, so we can try to integrate them into future updates. Erick H. Johnson ErickHJ@WaterAgency.com The Wate r Agenc y, Inc. Phone: (559) Fax: (559) Alluvial Avenue, Clovis, CA (Northwest corner of Temperance & Alluvial) (559) /16/2015 Page 28