Chapter 1. Coal Resources, Production, and Use Worldwide

Transcription

1 Chapter 1 Coal Resources, Production, and Use Worldwide Thomas Sarkus National Energy Technology Laboratory P.O. Box 0940, 626 Cochrans Mill Road, Pittsburgh, PA Thomas.Sarkus@netl.doe.gov William Ellis KeyLogic Systems, Inc. National Energy Technology Laboratory P.O. Box 0940, 626 Cochrans Mill Road, Pittsburgh, PA This chapter introduces and describes coal as a widely available and versatile worldwide energy source. The chapter also contains a quick review of the origins of coal deposits and a ranking of different types of coal by energy and carbon content. The production and chemical analysis of coal from major US coalbeds (including representative values for some lignite and anthracite beds) are detailed. World coal resources, reserves, and production levels for coal types are discussed. Current and projected usage of coal by world region and selected countries is also presented. Selected internet-based coal information resources from the US Department of Energy and the International Energy Agency are referenced for reader use. 1 Coal Basics Coal is a rock of sedimentary origin, formed from decomposed and lithified biomass, and utilized widely as an energy resource. Coal is commonly termed a mineral resource, but according to a strict scientific definition, the term mineral denotes a fixed chemical composition whereas coal composition varies widely. Indeed, coal composition varies so much that samples taken from adjacent parts of the same coal seam can and do vary significantly in chemical composition. The complex composition of coal may vary both vertically and horizontally in a given coal bed or coal seam. 1

2 2 T. Sarkus and W. Ellis Biomass Peat Lignite Subbituminous Coal Bituminous Coal Anthracite (aka Brown Coal) (aka Hard Coal) Fig. 1. Coal ranks (from least mature to most mature). 2 Coal Rank Coal is most commonly classified by rank. Coal rank increases as heat and pressure are applied over time through geologic processes. Accordingly, heating value (usually measured in Btu/lb. or MJ/kg) tends to increase and volatile compounds tend to decrease with higher rank; however, these are only trends, and do not necessarily apply in every instance. The ranks of coal are shown in Fig. 1, in order of increasing maturity. Some experts do not consider peat, let alone biomass, to be a bona fide rank of coal, but at a minimum, they represent early precursors of the coalification process. Less mature ranks, such as lignite and subbituminous coal, often occur in very thick seams which can be surface mined. While underground subbituminous coal mines are not unknown, surface mining of subbituminous coal is overwhelmingly predominant. More mature ranks such as bituminous coal and anthracite usually occur in comparatively thinner seams and, while surface mining is performed in some circumstances, underground mining is commonly utilized to obtain these higher heating value coals. Peat, lignite, subbituminous coal, and bituminous coal generally occur in layers, beds, or seams that are more or less horizontal. Anthracite, however, undergoes a higher degree of alteration or metamorphism, so anthracite seams can be inclined sharply, or folded, through geologic processes. a The coal ranks can be divided into groups or sub-ranks, listed in Table 1, in descending order of maturity. 3 Coal Analysis There are numerous formats and techniques for analyzing coal owing partly to its use in a wide variety of applications over the past two centuries. Two of the most prevalent types of coal analyses are proximate analysis and ultimate analysis. Proximate analysis includes fixed carbon, volatile matter, ash, and moisture contents all on an as-received basis. Ultimate analysis includes calorific or heating value (on both as-received and dry bases) as well as the amounts of carbon, gen, nitrogen, oxygen, and sulfur. a Anthracite deposits are subjected to higher heat and/or pressure than coals of lower rank.

3 Coal Resources, Production, and Use Worldwide 3 Table 1: Coal Ranks and Sub-ranks with Some Defining Parameters. b Calorific value c Coal group Fixed carbon Volatile matter BTU per lb/mj per Kg d Meta-anthracite 98% fc vm 2% Anthracite 92% fc < 98% 2% < vm 8% Semi-anthracite 86% fc < 92% 8% < vm 14% Low-volatile 78% fc < 86% 14% < vm 22% bituminous Medium-volatile 69% fc < 78% 22% < vm 31% bituminous High-volatile A fc < 69% 31% < vm cv 32.6 cv bituminous High-volatile B bituminous cv < cv < 32.6 High-volatile C bituminous cv < cv < 30.2 Subbituminous A cv < cv < 26.7 Subbituminous B 9500 cv < cv < 24.4 Subbituminous C 8300 cv < cv < 22.1 Lignite A 6300 cv < cv < 19.3 Lignite B cv < 6300 cv < 14.7 Other forms of coal analyses may include agglomerating or caking tendency, agglutinating or binding tendency, ash fusion temperature, ash softening temperature, free swelling index, Hardgrove grindability, petrography (e.g. maceral contents), trace element levels (often expressed as portions of either the parent coal or the ash fraction of the parent coal), and washability (or sink/float testing). Table 2 illustrates some typical proximate analysis for selected coalbeds. (These data tables are merely for illustrative purposes; readers are reminded that coal quality varies widely within any given coal seam or coal mine.) Table 3 shows representative coal caloric value by coalbed. Table 4 shows representative trace element analysis by coalbed. b Modified from Geological Survey Circular 891, Coal Resource Classification System of the US Geological Survey (2003). c Moist, Mineral-Matter-Free Basis (Moist refers to coal containing its natural inherent moisture but not including visible water on the surface of the coal). d British Thermal Units per pound/megajoules per kilogram.

4 4 T. Sarkus and W. Ellis Table 2: Coal Proximate Analysis by Coalbed. e Proximate analysis (weight percent) Coalbed name Moisture Volatile matter Fixed carbon Ash 1699 Wyodak Pittsburgh No Herrin (Illinois No. 6) f Pittsburgh Smith Anderson-Dietz 1-Dietz 2 g Lower Kittanning Beulah-Zap Coalburg Texas Lignite Coalbeds h Pennsylvania Anthracite Coalbeds i Table 3: Coal Caloric Value by Coalbed. j Calorific value Coalbed name Kcal/kg Btu/lb Wyodak Pittsburgh No Herrin (Illinois No. 6) k Pittsburgh Smith Anderson-Dietz 1-Dietz 2 l (Continued) e Coal sample data from USGS US Coal Quality Database. f Weighted average samples from the Illinois No. 6, Springfield No. 5, and Colchester coalbeds were used for analysis. g Anderson-Dietz 1-Dietz 2 coalbed analysis data not available, all available data for Montana Subbituminous used instead. h Analysis data for all available USGS Texas Lignite Coalbed samples used due to production data not being available by individual coalbed. i Analysis data for all available USGS Pennsylvania Anthracite Coalbed samples used due to production data not being available by individual coalbed. j Coal sample data from USGS US Coal Quality Database. k Weighted average samples from the Illinois No. 6, Springfield No. 5, and Colchester coalbeds were used for analysis. l Anderson-Dietz 1-Dietz 2 coalbed analysis data not available, all available data for Montana Subbituminous used instead.

5 Coal Resources, Production, and Use Worldwide 5 Table 3: (Continued) Calorific value Coalbed name Kcal/kg Btu/lb Lower Kittanning Beulah-Zap Coalburg Texas Lignite Coalbeds m Pennsylvania Anthracite Coalbeds n Table 4: Trace Element Analysis by Coalbed. o Ultimate analysis (percent) Trace elements (ppm) Coalbed name Hydrogen Carbon Nitrogen Oxygen Sulfur Mercury 1699 Wyodak Pittsburgh No Herrin (Illinois No. 6) p 0212 Pittsburgh Smith Anderson-Dietz Dietz 2 q 0084 Lower Kittanning Beulah-Zap Coalburg Texas Lignite Coalbeds r Pennsylvania Anthracite Coalbeds s m Analysis data for all available USGS Texas Lignite Coalbed samples used due to production data not being available by individual coalbed. n Analysis data for all available USGS Pennsylvania Anthracite Coalbed samples used due to production data not being available by individual coalbed. o Coal sample data from USGS US Coal Quality Database. p Weighted average samples from the Illinois No. 6, Springfield No. 5, and Colchester coalbeds were used for analysis. q Anderson-Dietz 1-Dietz 2 coalbed analysis data not available, all available data for Montana Subbituminous used instead. r Analysis data for all available USGS Texas Lignite Coalbed samples used due to production data not being available by individual coalbed. s Analysis data for all available USGS Pennsylvania Anthracite Coalbed samples used due to production data not being available by individual coalbed.

6 6 T. Sarkus and W. Ellis 4 World Coal Resources, Reserves, and Production Levels Coal is distributed broadly across much of the United States and world. However, many coal deposits may be too small, too thin, or too deep to mine economically. As technology improves, it may become possible to mine or otherwise utilize (e.g. through well-controlled underground combustion or gasification) some of these coals. In other cases, coal seams may underlie cities, towns, or sensitive environmental areas. Coal resources are significant both domestically and internationally. Exploration and estimation of coal resources does not carry the same level of risk and uncertainty as and natural gas exploration. One must, however, exercise caution when discussing resources and reserves (e.g. comparing recoverable coal reserves to recoverable and/or natural gas reserves) as the terminology can have rather precise meaning(s). The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) defines recoverable coal as Recoverable Reserves of Coal: An estimate of the amount of coal that can be removed (mined) from the accessible reserves in the future, using current prices and operable equipment. Worldwide recoverable coal reserves as of 2008 are shown for world regions in Table 5 and for the top 20 countries in Table 6. The United States has the largest coal reserves, followed by Russia, China, Australia, and India. In similar fashion, Tables 7 and 8 illustrate total coal production over the time period by world regions and top 20 countries, Table 5: Recoverable Total Coal Reserves by Region, t u Anthracite and Reserves (region) bituminous v Lignite Total Asia & Oceania 175, , ,042 North America 123, , ,343 Eurasia 95, , ,364 Europe 6,906 77,296 84,202 Africa 34, ,934 Central & South America 7,595 6,193 13,788 Middle East 1, ,326 Total 445, , ,000 t Totals may not be exact due to independent rounding. u EIA International Energy Statistics Database. v Includes subbituminous.

7 Coal Resources, Production, and Use Worldwide 7 Table 6: Reserves (country) Recoverable Total Coal Reserves by Country, w Anthracite and Total bituminous Lignite Coal reserves (million short tons) United States 260, , ,416 Russia 173,074 54, ,964 China 126,215 68,564 57,651 Australia 84,217 40,896 43,321 India 66,800 61,840 4,960 Germany 44, ,754 Ukraine 37,339 16,922 20,417 Kazakhstan 37,038 23,700 13,338 South Africa 33,241 33,241 Serbia 15, ,169 Colombia 7,436 7, Canada 7,255 3,829 3,426 Poland 6,293 4,782 1,511 Indonesia 6,095 1,676 4,419 Brazil 5,025 5,025 Greece 3,329 3,329 Bosnia 3, ,611 Mongolia 2,778 1,290 1,488 Bulgaria 2, ,606 Turkey 2, ,000 Table 7: Total Coal Production by World Region, x Coal Production (thousand short tons) Producer (region) Asia & Oceania 4,435,604 4,831,185 5,100,842 5,527,345 North America 1,259,089 1,155,928 1,170,351 1,181,967 Europe 793, , , ,275 Eurasia 528, , , ,087 Africa 283, , , ,279 Central & South America 94,721 91,118 91, ,009 Middle East 1,753 1,270 1,130 1,294 Total 7,398,939 7,643,625 7,936,294 8,442,267 respectively. Tables 9 11 illustrate the production of bituminous coal, anthracite, and lignite, respectively. These production statistics were also drawn from the EIA International Energy Statistics Database. w EIA International Energy Statistics Database. x EIA International Energy Statistics Database.

8 8 T. Sarkus and W. Ellis Table 8: Total Coal Production by Country, y Coal Production (thousand short tons) Producer (country) China 3,021,900 3,301,803 3,505,520 3,844,942 United States 1,171,809 1,074,923 1,084,368 1,094,336 India 568, , , ,627 Australia 437, , , ,691 Indonesia 274, , , ,800 Russia 336, , , ,986 South Africa 278, , , ,001 Germany 214, , , ,853 Poland 157, , , ,628 Kazakhstan 122, , , ,607 Colombia 81,022 80,256 81,957 94,582 Turkey 87,526 87,633 80,909 86,063 Canada 74,680 69,377 74,843 73,981 Ukraine 65,729 61,222 61,054 68,129 Greece 72,444 71,532 62,303 64,780 Czech Republic 66,359 62,189 60,858 59,913 Serbia 48,652 49,097 48,566 51,697 Vietnam 45,438 48,443 49,233 49,079 Bulgaria 31,734 29,967 32,413 41,679 Romania 39,530 37,436 34,312 38,871 Table 9: Bituminous Coal Production by Country, z Bituminous Coal Production (thousand short tons) Producer (country) China 2,412,734 2,656,786 2,805,966 3,073,648 United States 1,094,413 1,000,524 1,004,362 1,011,086 India 532, , , ,064 Indonesia 274, , , ,800 Australia 360, , , ,268 South Africa 275, , , ,927 Russia 238, , , ,099 Kazakhstan 117, , , ,125 Colombia 81,022 80,256 81,957 94,582 Poland 92,220 85,405 83,965 83,358 Canada 63,746 57,748 63,528 63,254 Ukraine 52,309 48,824 47,826 53,623 (Continued) y EIA International Energy Statistics Database. z EIA International Energy Statistics Database.

9 Coal Resources, Production, and Use Worldwide 9 Table 9: (Continued) Bituminous Coal Production (thousand short tons) Producer (country) Vietnam 42,798 46,455 47,201 47,054 Mongolia 4,594 7,820 19,251 24,328 Korea, North 24,771 23,810 22,811 22,186 United Kingdom 17,986 17,756 18,372 18,428 Mexico 12,599 11,627 11,140 13,651 Czech Republic 13,959 12,127 12,605 12,627 Germany 18,920 13,090 12,050 11,082 Philippines 3,978 5,167 7,330 10,400 Table 10: Anthracite Production by Country, aa Anthracite Coal Production (thousand short tons) Producer (country) China 488, , , ,012 Ukraine 13,240 11,778 12,748 14,294 Russia 7,036 6,612 9,642 11,320 Korea, North 2,895 3,309 5,072 4,933 South Africa 2,433 1,839 2,286 3,073 Spain 3,474 4,476 3,537 2,741 Korea, South 3,057 2,777 2,297 2,297 United States 1,712 1,921 1,776 2,296 Germany 2,099 2,084 2,169 2,211 Vietnam 1,986 1,989 2,032 2,025 United Kingdom 1,419 1,396 1,268 1,294 Australia Ireland Table 11: Lignite Production by Country, bb Lignite Coal Production (thousand short tons) Producer (country) Germany 196, , , ,250 China 97, , , ,560 Russia 60,938 67,775 79,500 83,964 Turkey 81,205 81,734 78,422 90,974 United States 83,942 84,248 78,585 75,684 aa EIA International Energy Statistics Database. bb EIA International Energy Statistics Database. (Continued)

10 10 T. Sarkus and W. Ellis Table 11: (Continued) Lignite Coal Production (thousand short tons) Producer (country) Australia 76,498 71,415 73,092 72,444 Poland 74,022 74,667 72,326 79,807 Greece 67,942 67,069 63,425 65,773 Serbia 53,762 54,584 54,820 52,401 Czech Republic 40,507 40,940 42,662 India 33,321 34,486 37,457 35,738 Bulgaria 34,288 38,496 39,441 39,530 Romania 27,212 28,275 31,325 31,689 Thailand 23,014 21,022 20,105 20,157 Canada 16,084 15,537 18,237 17,766 Hungary 8,170 8,758 10,020 10,922 Mongolia 12,144 11,508 11,619 10,936 Bosnia and Herzegovina 10,549 10,970 10,822 10,366 Korea, North 8,539 8,759 7,141 7,975 Kosovo 1,558 3,242 4,716 8,162 China is the leading producer of bituminous coal and anthracite as well as the leading overall producer. Germany leads in the production of lignite. These recoverable reserve statistics were drawn from the EIA International Energy Statistics Database. 5 World Coal Usage The largest use of coal worldwide, by far, is to provide steam to generate electric power. While coal is used in a variety of industries to provide heat for various processes, the quantities involved are much less than the quantity used in power generation. There are nearly 6700 operating units worldwide rated at over 25 MWe. Included in the world total are over 545 atmospheric circulating fluidized bed bers. Not surprisingly, countries or regions that rely on coal for a significant portion of their electrical generation are usually those that have significant coal reserves. For example, China has over 2600 operating coal-fired generating units. The United States is second in coal-based generation with almost 970 units. On a regional basis, the European Union has over 700 operating units. There are almost 750 coal-fired generating units in India and over 350 in Russia. Sections 5.2 and 5.3 address international coal market energy projections through 2040 taken from the International Energy Outlook 2013 (IEO2013) prepared by the EIA. The coal consumption projections are

11 Coal Resources, Production, and Use Worldwide 11 summarized by membership grouping in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The IEO2013 report can be accessed at Electricity generation by fuel graphics are provided for selected countries. cc It is important to note that as per the EIA website the projections in IEO2013 are not statements of what will happen, but what might happen given the specific assumptions and methodologies used for any particular scenario. The Reference case projection, from which the projections are taken, is a business-as-usual trend estimate, given known technology and technological and demographic trends. Also, note that the IEO2013 cases generally assume that current laws and regulations are maintained throughout the projections and as a result do not include prospective greenhouse gas reduction policies. 5.1 Overview Coal continues to be the second largest energy source worldwide in the 2010 to 2040 timeframe. The average rate of world coal consumption increases by 1.3% per year. This increase in coal consumption translates from 147 quadrillion Btu in 2010 to 180 quadrillion Btu in 2020 and 220 quadrillion Btu in Significant increases in coal consumption by China, India, and other non-oecd countries are anticipated in the near term. Further out, the consumption of coal is anticipated to slow as cleaner energy sources are brought on line, as shale gas development results in natural gas becoming more economically competitive, and as growth of industrial use of coal slows. Coal consumption is predominately attributed to China (47%), the United States (14%), and India (9%), which accounted for 70% of total world coal consumption in The percent of world consumption of these three countries is predicted to increase to 75% in OECD coal consumption World coal consumption by OECD countries is anticipated to decrease as fuel market fundamentals and environmental regulations shift in favor of natural gas and s, predominately in the OECD regions of the Americas and Europe. Overall, OECD coal consumption is predicted to cc Data for the pie-chart graphics displayed in Sections 5.2 and 5.3 are from IEA statistics database for 2012 which can be accessed at Data is for gross generation.

12 12 T. Sarkus and W. Ellis Table 12: World Coal Consumption by OECD Region. dd Region/Country Growth OECD Americas % United States % Canada % Mexico/Chile % OECD Europe % OECD Asia % Japan % South Korea % Australia/New Zealand % Total OECD % decrease from 45 quadrillion Btu in 2010 to 41 quadrillion Btu in 2016, to increase slightly to 42 quadrillion Btu in 2020, and then to remain slightly above that level through Almost three-quarters of the OECD total is consumed by Europe and the United States, which are leading the trend toward lower consumption. Coal consumption in most other OECD subregions or countries, except for the Mexico/Chile region and South Korea, is also decreasing. OECD overall coal consumption is decreasing at an average rate of 0.2% per year resulting in coal share of total energy use falling from 19% in 2010 to 15% in Despite the decrease in coal utilization, the share of OECD energy supply from energy, including power, is predicted to increase from 10% in 2010 to 15% in Table 12 shows the relative consumption by OECD countries. OECD Americas Coal consumption in the United States is not predicted to increase but rather to remain below the 2010 level through This lack of growth in coal-fired generation is due to the growth in shale gas production and tightening environmental regulations. The US coal-fired generating fleet capacity is anticipated to decrease from 317 gigawatts in 2010 to 278 gigawatts in 2040 resulting in a decrease in coal use. US electricity generation from coal (including electricity generated at plants in the industrial and commercial sectors) is expected to decline from 45% in 2010 to 35% in The United States consumed dd IEO2013 Reference Case Projection.

13 Coal Resources, Production, and Use Worldwide 13 United States Percent coal 7.0% 5.8% 38.3% gas 18.7% 29.5% 0.8% 20.8 quadrillion Btu of coal in 2010, which is 92% of total coal use in the OECD Americas region and 46% of the OECD total. A weak demand for power and the displacement of coal-fired generation due to lower natural gas prices and persistently rising delivered prices for coal reduced US coal demand to 17.8 quadrillion Btu in Coal consumption is predicted to gradually increase from 17.2 quadrillion Btu in 2016 to 20.4 quadrillion Btu in Mexico Percent coal 10.8% 4.2% 11.7% gas 3.0% 18.9% 51.4% Canada Percent 60.0% 3.3% 10.0% 1.1% 10.6% 15.0% coal gas Coal consumption in Canada for electricity generation is minor and will further decrease in the long run. Driven at both the federal and provincial levels to reduce greenhouse gases, Canada s coal consumption is anticipated

14 14 T. Sarkus and W. Ellis to decrease by 8%, or 0.1 quadrillion Btu, between 2010 and 2040, which represents a decrease in the coal share of the total primary energy supply from 8% in 2010 to 6% in Beginning on July 1, 2015, a strict greenhouse gas emissions federal standard for all coal-fired units will be enforced, which will encourage utilities to retire coal-fired generators. The electric power sector share of Canada s total coal consumption is expected to fall to 73% in 2040, and the coal share of total electricity generation will therefore decline from 14% in 2010 to 7% in Coal consumption in Mexico/Chile was relatively minor in 2010, at 0.6 quadrillion Btu, but is predicted to increase by 0.2 quadrillion Btu from 2010 to 2040, mostly from coking coal demand in the industrial sector. As Mexico is favoring the development of natural gas and energy resources, there is only minimal growth expected in the use of steam coal in electricity generation through In recent years, an urgent need for more electricity generation in Chile has resulted in the construction of a few coal-fired power plants. However, the country is shifting its focus to expansion of natural gas supplies and solar power. The total amount of electricity generated from coal in the two countries is predicted to decrease from 15% in 2010 to 6% in United Kingdom Percent 19.4% 2.3% 10.4% 27.5% 0.8% 39.6% coal gas OECD Europe Total coal consumption in the OECD countries of Europe is predicted to decline from 12.2 quadrillion Btu in 2010 to 10.7 quadrillion Btu in Various directives and regional climate change policy goals drive the decline of coal consumption and the likely retirements of some coalfired power plants. The scale of the retirements outweighs the scale of new

15 Coal Resources, Production, and Use Worldwide 15 coal-fired capacity additions. Coal-fired generating capacity in the OECD European countries is expected to decrease from 204 gigawatts in 2010 to 169 gigawatts in 2040, with the consequent percentage of coal-fired electricity generation declining from 24% in 2010 to 15% in OECD Asia Overall coal consumption in the OECD Asia region is predicted to be relatively flat from 2010 to 2040, which is attributable to a total 0.9 quadrillion Btu expected decline in coal use in Japan, Australia, and New Zealand and an increase in coal use in South Korea of 0.5 quadrillion Btu. Japan is currently the region s largest coal consumer and in the face of the Fukushima disaster will likely need to increase its coal use in the near term. However, coal-fired capacity is expected to shift toward energy and natural gas for electricity generation in the long run. 5.7% Australia Percent coal 4.0% 0.0% 19.9% 1.6% 68.8% gas 34.2% Republic of Korea Percent 18.4% 1.3% 0.3% 3.5% 43.5% coal gas Australia and New Zealand used 88% of the coal they consumed in 2010 to generate electricity. Australia consumes 97% of the coal in the

16 16 T. Sarkus and W. Ellis OECD Asia region. Coal-fired electricity generation was expected to decline steadily in Australia from 63% in 2010 to 39% in 2040 due to carbon legislation encouraging low carbon energy use, however, this tax has since been repealed. South Korea s coal consumption is anticipated to increase, primarily for steel production, at an average rate of 0.5% per year through Coal-fired generation accounted for 64% of total coal consumption in 2010 and is expected to be roughly flat until Coal s share of total electricity generation is predicted to decline from 44% in 2010 to 27% in Non-OECD coal consumption While coal use is declining in the OECD countries, coal consumption shows significant and rapid growth in the non-oecd regions, particularly non- OECD Asia. Total non-oecd coal consumption is predicted to increase by an average of 1.8% annually to 177 quadrillion Btu in This is a 72% increase over the 103 quadrillion Btu produced in Coal-fired electricity generation growth accounts for nearly two-thirds of the increase. Table 13 shows the relative consumption of non-oecd countries. Table 13: World Coal Consumption by Non-OECD Region. ee Region/Country Growth Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia % Russia % Other % Non-OECD Asia % China % India % Other % Middle East % Africa % Central and South America % Brazil % Other % Total Non-OECD % ee International Energy Outlook 2013-Reference Case Projection

17 Coal Resources, Production, and Use Worldwide 17 Non-OECD Asia Coal accounted for 56% of non-oecd Asia s energy demand in Coal use in the non-oecd Asia region is expected to increase by an average of 1.9% per year, from 88 quadrillion Btu in 2010 to 157 quadrillion Btu in Coal accounts for 92% of the growth in total non-oecd coal consumption over the period. The increases in coal use are attributed to China, accounting for 70%, and India, accounting for 13% of the total increase, respectively. 2.0% 1.7% 0.1% People s Republic of China Percent 2.9% coal 17.5% 75.8% gas China leads the world in coal consumption and used more than three times as much coal in 2010 than the United States, the world s secondlargest consumer. China s coal consumption is predicted to grow by an average of 1.9% per year, from 69 quadrillion Btu in 2010 to a peak in 2035 of 123 quadrillion Btu of coal and then decreasing to 121 quadrillion Btu in At its peak, China s consumption is expected to account for 57% of the world total. Coal-fired power capacity in China is anticipated to increase by almost 530 gigawatts from 2010 to 2040, with net capacity additions averaging nearly 18 gigawatts per year. Coal consumption for electricity generation in China is therefore predicted to increase by an average of 2.3% per year, from 35 quadrillion Btu in 2010 to 69 quadrillion Btu in China s energy policy is expected to result in an increase in power capacity and, further out in the projection period, natural gas-fired capacity, power, and other s are expected to play an increasing role in the total capacity. This diversification is expected to reduce the coal share of electricity generation from 79% in 2010 to 62% in 2040.

18 18 T. Sarkus and W. Ellis 2.9% 8.3% 2.0% India Percent 11.2% 4.5% 71.1% coal gas India s coal consumption is predicted to grow from 12.6 quadrillion Btu in 2010 to 22.4 quadrillion Btu in This growth is led by the electric power sector, which accounted for 65% of India s coal consumption in Coal-fired generation grows by an average of 3.1% per year. India s net coalfired electricity generation is expected to grow by a total of 910 terawatt hours during the 2010 to 2040 projection period. Consequently, India s coal consumption for electricity generation should increase from 8.2 quadrillion Btu in 2010 to 15.6 quadrillion Btu in Coal consumption in the remaining non-oecd Asia nations is predicted to grow by an average of 2.4% per year during the period, from 6.4 quadrillion Btu in 2010 to 13.0 quadrillion Btu in Most of the large-scale power projects will be developed in Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam. Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia Natural gas use is more prevalent than other fuels in non-oecd Europe and Eurasia, which is why coal accounted for only 19% of the total primary energy supply in Coal consumption is expected to increase from 9 quadrillion Btu in 2010 to 11 quadrillion Btu in However, coal consumption as part of total energy consumption should fall to 16% in Russia, Kazakhstan, and the Ukraine account for most of the region s coal consumption and its future growth. Together, these three countries accounted for 84% of the 2010 total, with Russia alone accounting for 52%.

19 Coal Resources, Production, and Use Worldwide % Russian Federa on Percent 15.6% 0.3% 15.8% 2.6% 49.1% coal gas The coal share of the Russian total primary energy supply is anticipated to decrease from 16% in 2010 to 14% in Coal demand in the power sector should grow on average by 0.9% per year from 2010 to South Africa Percent 1.9% coal 0.0% 5.1% 0.2% 0.1% gas 92.8% Africa Coal use in Africa is less than one-quarter of the continent s total primary energy supply throughout the projection. This low percentage is despite an expected increase in coal use from 4.4 quadrillion Btu in 2010 to 5.2 quadrillion Btu in 2020 and 7.5 quadrillion Btu in South Africa accounted for 93% of the continent s total coal consumption in South Africa consumes about 70% of the coal for electricity generation and roughly 20% for the production of coal-based synthetic fuels. South Africa is adding a total of 9.6 gigawatts of coal-fired capacity through the construction of two multiple-unit coal-fired power plants, Medupi (800 MWe 6) and Kusile (800 MWe 6), which are scheduled to come on line starting in 2013 and 2014, with all units scheduled to be fully operational by The two plants will add about 30 million tons of coal consumption per

20 20 T. Sarkus and W. Ellis year. Also, South Africa s coal-based synthetic fuels production is assumed to expand from 160,000 barrels per day in 2010 to about 275,000 barrels per day in Central and South America Central and South America use coal for only 3% of the total primary energy supply and the balance is used mainly in the industrial sector for steel production. Brazil accounted for 54% of the region s 0.9 quadrillion Btu of total coal consumption in Most of the remainder was consumed by Colombia, Peru, Argentina, and Puerto Rico. Brazil Percent 7.3% 2.6% 3.5% 8.5% 2.9% coal 75.2% gas Brazil was the world s ninth-largest steel producer in 2011 and is expected to account for 84% of the region s coal consumption from 2010 to Brazil added 1.4 gigawatts of generating capacity with the completion of the Pecem I, Pecem II, and Itaqui power plants between 2011 and The longer term outlook for the region s electric power sector is based not on coal-fired generation but rather on power, along with some increases in generation from natural gas and power. Middle East The Middle East depends primarily on crude and natural gas as the two fuel sources for its electricity generation. Coal accounts for less than 1% of the total primary energy consumption in the Middle East throughout the time period. Coal consumption in the Middle East remains below 0.1 quadrillion Btu.

21 Coal Resources, Production, and Use Worldwide 21 Israel Percent 20.9% 0.0% 0.1% 0.8% 16.8% 61.5% coal gas 6 Conclusions and Outlook The worldwide demand for coal is anticipated to increase by an average of 1.3% annually through 2040 despite the slight decrease expected in coal consumption by the majority of the OECD countries. Non-OECD countries on average are predicted to increase coal consumption by 1.8% annually through 2040 with China and India leading in first and second places respectively. The drive for cleaner energy sources favors natural gas particularly as a result of shale gas development which contributes to the slight decline in coal consumption. However, as a select group of nations eliminates power as a power generation option, coal will still play a sustaining role until other options are developed. The continued use of coal as an abundant and affordable fuel will require the development and demonstration of technologies that advance the environmental performance of industries utilizing coal. The US Department of Energy, National Energy Technology Laboratory continues to develop and demonstrate clean coal technologies that will meet the stringent emissions standards as they are implemented. References 1. Modified from Geological Survey Circular 891, Coal Resource Classification System of the US Geological Survey (2003). 2. International Energy Statistics Database, US Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy Available at: cfapps/ipdbproject/iedindex3.cfm. Accessed March 11, International Energy Outlook 2013, US Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy. Available at: Accessed March 11, 2014.

22 22 T. Sarkus and W. Ellis 4. US Coal Quality Database, US Geological Survey, US Department of the Interior. Available at Accessed March 6, IEA Statistics Search (Electricity and Heat), International Energy Agency. Available at: Accessed March 6, 2014.