Opportunities for Collaboration with Uganda Institutions in Climate Change Education & Development of Adaptation Strategies
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1 Opportunities for Collaboration with Uganda Institutions in Climate Change Education & Development of Adaptation Strategies Professor Fredrick Semazzi North Carolina State University Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences North Carolina State University 1
2 Outline of Talk Some opportunities for sectorial application of climate change information in Uganda - Agriculture, Livestock & Tourism Sectors - Forestry Sector - Health Sector - Infrastructure & Insurance Sectors - Lake Victoria Transportation Safety, Fisheries & Water Quality SectorsS - Water & Hydroelectric Energy Sectors - Development of climate risk management education content for key social economic c sectors (case of the North Carolina, USA) Collaboration of North Carolina State University & Institutions in Uganda Concluding remarks 2
3 North Carolina State University Land Grant University founded in undergraduate fields of study 80 master's degree areas 51 doctoral degree programs Enrollment is 33,819 students (~19% graduate students) Raleigh is the state capital (population ~390,000) Research Triangle Park bounded by NCSU, Duke, and UNC 3
4 Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences (MEAS) 35 faculty; 100 grad students; 240 undergrads Only Ph.D. atmospheric sciences program in the Carolinas One of largest interdisciplinary environmental sciences departments in U.S. High level of sponsored research (~$6M/year) Faculty participation in IPCC assessment. 4
5 Opportunities for Application of Climate Change Information Agriculture Livestock & Tourism Sectors in Uganda 5
6 Masai Mara-Serengeti Climate Anomalies Impacts on Wildebeest Migration Masai Mara-Serengeti (2005 Drought) Assessment shows that very late start of the rains was responsible for the 2005 disaster Analysis also clearly detects the severe drought 6
7 Crop failure due to drought 7
8 Climate Change Impacting Biodiversity 8
9 I m supposed to be nursing. But, it is too hot out there! 9
10 Decadal Mode for Rainfall Based on the EOF Method (N-E-W) Uganda, Turkana: large % increase Most of C-Uganda, Wajir, Garissa : transition zone Masaka, Kitui, Serengeti: large % decrease Fig.12: Possible climate change finger-print mode (EOF-2). Over Masaka, Kitui, Serengeti, this mode tends to offset the large increase in rainfall associated with the the El-Nino mode. 10
11 OND SEASON Z o n e 2 0 ( D o d o m a ) OND rainfall (mm) Z o n e 1 8 ( K i g o m a ) Z o n e 1 0 ( K a b a le ) Y e a r s 11
12 Climate Model Based on Laws of Physics Zonal momentum Model Horizontal Grid Meridional momentum First law of thermodynamics Conservation of mass Hydrostatic equation Conservation of moisture Model Vertical Grid Equation of state Numerical Transformations A A i +, j, kn, Ai = + λ 2 λ 1 1, j, k, n 12
13 African Anomaly: Temperature NCEP Satellite-based Surface Temperature RegCM (50km resolution) 13
14 Regional Climate Projections Result on LHS must be undertaken by countries involved - eg Uganda NC STATE UNIVERSITY Climate Modeling Applications Dr. Fredrick Semazzi 14
15 Opportunities for Application of Climate Change Information Reforestation & Deforestation RAINFALL [DEF-CONT]-DJF Deforested Region Response of Rainfall Significance of the equatorial forests may be appreciated by replacing the tropical rain forest with reduced vegetation Rossby Wave train affecting the southern Africa Monsoon Region 15
16 Opportunities for Application of Climate Change Information Health 19 Threshold temperature exceeded in 1993 Temperature trend 18.5 Temperature Celsius Temperature threshold for malaria transmission Year Malaria spreads to Central Kenya highlands because of climate change 16
17 Opportunities for Application of Climate Change Information Infrastructure & Insurance Sectors 17
18 Combined Natural/human erosion 18 18
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22 Opportunities for Application of Climate Change Information Lake Victoria Transportation Safety, Fisheries & Water Quality Fig.1a:RegCM3-POM: December 1988 lake surface temperature Fig.1b:RegCM3-POM: December 1988 lake surface water circulation 22
23 Opportunities for Application of Climate Change Information Water & Hydroelectric Energy Sectors Aerial view of Nalubaale-Kiira Dam Complex: Uganda 23
24 Climate Modeling Application to Energy Sector Lake Victoria Water Balance Model Prediction of Lake Levels NC STATE UNIVERSITY Climate Modeling Applications Dr. Fredrick Semazzi 24
25 Excessive release? THE JUMP: Due to Commissioning of Owen Falls Dam & 1961/62 Record Indian Ocean Dipole (famous flood) Record Drought? 25
26 Excessive Release?- from Daniel Kull Actual and Agreed Curve prescribed total releases at Nalubaale and Kiira Dams for 9/04 to early 3/06. From 9/04 to 3/06, actual releases were 194% of those prescribed by the agreed curve: almost double from Daniel Kull 26
27 Or Record Drought? Changes in annual rainfall from 2001 to 2004 (East African Community Lake Victoria Basin Commission special report on the Declining of Water Levels of Lake Victoria, EAC Secretariat, Arusha, Tanzania, April 2006) 27
28 Regional Climate Projections NC STATE UNIVERSITY Climate Modeling Applications Dr. Fredrick Semazzi 28
29 Regional Hydrological Projections NC STATE UNIVERSITY Climate Modeling Applications Dr. Fredrick Semazzi 29
30 Potential Collaboration of North Carolina State University & Institutions in Uganda Investment in climate change research Optimization of communication with Policymakers Investment in development of adaptation strategies Investment in Climate Observational Network Investment in capacity building 30
31 Investment in Research Need to invest more research, & its infra-structure --- because research is the driver for climate services NAO MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC WAVES NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION OROGRAPHIC-TELECONNECTIONS dust physics SURFACE HYDROLOGY (a) EASTERLY JET EASTERLY WAVES SQUALL-LINES convective heating TAO W. AFRICAN MONSOONS WALKER CIRCULATION TRANSPORT DEEP TROPICAL CONVECTION LAKE-EFFECTS SOMALI JET SOMALI-CURRENT heated surface (b) AFRICA Ekman bump enhanced upwelling INDONESIA IOZM BASIN-SCALE OCEAN ANOMALIES ITCZ BOTSWANA LOW MJO (c) Ekman AFRICA downwelling enhanced upwelling INDONESIA OCEAN-CURRENTS OROGRAPHIC-EFFECTS Ekman Research Many disciplines involved Establish resilience of natural systems (upper & lower thresholds) What are governance changes required to address climate change Persitent Droughts Zone ENSO-Rainfall Anomaly Dipole H 30ϒS L 0ϒ L H TROPICAL-CYCLONES MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC WAVES SO Warm SST Cool SST downwelling Kelvin wave increased AFRICA upwelling and mixing INDONESIA 31
32 Optimization of Communication with Policymakers And perceptions of risks may differ 32
33 Adaptation strategies to lake level rise Adaptation strategies 33 33
34 Investment in Climate Observational Network Nature Morte Vivante, Salvador Dalí 34
35 Investment in Climate Observational Network 35
36 Investment in Climate Observational Network Drifters for surface currents 2k) + boats for relocation & synoptic measurements ADCP: Acoustic Doppler Current Profiles $30K) CTD: Conductivity, Temperature and Depth 10K) Ship transects Land-based temporary meteorological stations 36
37 Investment in Climate Observational Network DRIFTER: MONITORING WATER CURRENTS OVER LAKE VICTORIA 37
38 North Carolina State University Masters Degree in Climate Change & Society Objective of the program is to provide students with background in climate science and the practical experience in the development & implementation of adaptation strategies to global climate change One academic year of courses (Spring & Fall Semester) plus a summer internship/research project 38
39 North Carolina State University PSM Degree Curriculum in Climate Change & Society QuickTime and a TIFF (LZW) decompressor are needed to see this picture. 39
40 North Carolina State University Master Degree Curriculum in Climate Change & Society 40
41 Primary & Secondary School Education + Informal Informal - Inform people what climate change is about - That all society is on board - Prepare society for young people who are willing to invest their future in climate change QuickTime and a TIFF (LZW) decompressor are needed to see this picture. 41
42 Opportunities for Collaboration Inform Development of Climate Change Adaptation Policy Research (knowledge for country to assert is role in global agreements & development of optimal adaptation) Climate Observational Network Communication with Policymakers & stakeholders Development of adaptation strategies Capacity Building and Training (formal & informal) 42
43 Perhaps we can put a smile on this man
44 44
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