THE DESERTEC CONCEPT

Transcription

1 THE DESERTEC CONCEPT Clean power from deserts Probably the single most effective means of cutting worldwide emissions of CO 2 Dr Gerry Wolff Coordinator of

2 THE DESERTEC CONCEPT: BACKGROUND Developed by the 'TREC' international network of scientists and engineers, an initiative of the Club of Rome. Now promoted by the Desertec Foundation and the Desertec Industrial Initiative. Underpinned by detailed research at the German Aerospace Centre (DLR), the US DoE, and elsewhere. Uses proven technologies that are available now. The Desertec concept is taking shape now.

3 THE DESERTEC CONCEPT IN BRIEF Colossal amounts of clean electricity may be generated in deserts using 'concentrating solar power' (CSP) and wind power and photovoltaics (PV). Efficient 'transfers' and transmission of solar electricity over long distances via low-loss HVDC transmission lines. Spin-off benefits including desalination of sea water using waste heat from power generation.

4 DESERTEC IS HAPPENING NOW CSP plants are already feeding electricity into the European transmission grid. The Desertec Industrial Initiative is a consortium of blue-chip companies (including ABB, Deutsche Bank, E.ON, Munich Re, RWE, and Siemens) aiming to build CSP plants and develop the HVDC supergrid. New CSP plants are under construction in Spain, Morocco, Algeria, Egypt, Israel, and other parts of the world. More are planned by the Union for the Mediterranean ('Mediterranean Solar Plan') and the World Bank. Several HVDC transmission lines are already in place. Imera, Medgrid and others plan to build more. The EC is providing funds for the supergrid. About 9 to 14 GW of CSP capacity is in the pipeline worldwide (World Bank and EER estimates).

5 Parabolic trough CSP plant, Kramer Junction, California

6 Parabolic trough CSP plant, Kramer Junction, California

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8 HOW CSP WORKS

9 Fresnel mirror systems

10 PS10 and PS20 power towers in Spain

11 Solar Two power tower, Barstow, California

12 Dish/engine systems in New Mexico

13 A dish-engine system

14 CPV systems, Australia

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16 WIND POWER

17 PHOTOVOLTAICS

18 THE POTENTIAL OF PV Costs are falling rapidly. Likely to be competitive in southern Europe by Likely to be competitive in the UK by 2020 for householders, for energy suppliers, and for large commercial and industrial consumers. The potential in the UK is at least 2000 TWh/yr, more than 5 times current consumption.

19 GENERATING ELECTRICITY WITHOUT THE SUN With CSP, solar heat may be stored in melted salts so that the generation of electricity may continue at night or on cloudy days. Gas or biofuels may be used as a stop-gap source of heat when there is no sun. With those two things, CSP plants can provide power on demand very useful in matching supplies to constantly-varying demands.

20 HEAT STORAGE TANKS

21 TRANSMISSION: START WITH THE EXISTING GRID

22 A TRANSMISSION GRID IS LIKE A LAKE Water (electricity) may be 'transferred' over a long distance without actual transmission. Solar power fed into southern Europe can be an immediate benefit for countries further north.

23 TRANSMISSION: SUBMARINE SUPERGRID A B Low-loss submarine HVDC supergrids proposed by MRP (A) and Airtricity (B). Endorsed by EU Energy Commissioner, Günther Oettinger and by Prime Minister David Cameron. The EC is providing support. Some submarine HVDC cables are already in place, and others are being built or are planned. Investment company Imera has announced a 4.4 billion plan to develop "EuropaGrid North Sea" and "EuropaGrid Atlantic".

24 TRANSMISSION: DESERTEC SCHEMATIC Low-loss HVDC transmission lines connect various sources of clean electricity. HVDC lines integrate with existing HVAC grids. The Medgrid consortium aim to build the grid around the Mediterranean sea.

25 BENEFITS OF AN HVDC SUPERGRID Security of supply: a shortfall in any one area can normally be met from elsewhere. Reduces wastage: surplus power in any one area may be moved to where it is needed. Smoothes out variations: the wind is always blowing somewhere across a large area like EUMENA. Access to offshore wind farms, waves farms, etc and CSP! Access to large-scale pumped storage (Norway, the Alps). Needed for a single market for electricity (promoting competition between suppliers). Good for UK exports of renewable energy.

26 WORDWIDE POTENTIAL OF THE DESERTEC CONCEPT With CSP, less than 1% of the world's deserts could produce as much electricity as the world is using now. Less than 5% of the world's deserts could produce electricity equivalent to the world's total energy consumption. Using low-loss HVDC transmission lines, it is feasible and economic to transmit electricity for 3000 km or more. 90% of the world s people live within 2700 km of a desert.

27 3000 km

28 HUGE QUANTITIES OF CLEAN ENERGY IN DESERTS World: the area of desert needed to generate (with CSP) as much electricity as the world is using now. EU and MENA: corresponding areas for Europe and for the Middle East with North Africa.

29 ENERGY DENSITIES

30 DESERTEC SPIN-OFFS Solar electricity, or waste heat from the generation of solar electricity, may be used for the desalination of sea water. The shaded areas under solar collectors are protected against the harshness of direct tropical sunlight. They have many potential uses including horticulture using desalinated sea water.

31 WASTE HEAT FROM CSP MAY BE USED FOR DESALINATION OF SEA WATER

32 CSP: PROTECTION FROM THE SUN Shaded areas under solar mirrors have many potential uses including horticulture using desalinated sea water. Land that would otherwise be unproductive may be used for growing food.

33 CSP: COOLING BY SHADING Solar collectors provide shade Waste heat may be used to drive air conditioners. The system generates electricity

34 POWER FOR INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES In principle, heat or electricity from CSP plants, or both, may be used to power industrial processes: Synthesis of hydrocarbons from CO 2 and H 2 O. Synthesis of hydrogen by electrolysis of water or direct thermal cracking of water. Production and processing of steel, aluminium, etc. (Hydrogen as a reducing agent?) Glass making. Etc.

35 FURTHER INFORMATION

36 SARGENT & LUNDY 2005

37 CSP COSTS (1)

38 CSP COSTS (2) German Aerospace Centre (DLR): CSP is likely to become one of the cheapest sources of electricity in Europe, including the cost of transmission. Vinod Khosla: "... we are poised for breakaway growth for explosive growth not because we are cleaner [than "clean" coal-fired electricity] but because we are cheaper. We happen to be cleaner incidentally." CSP costs are falling while the cost of traditional sources of energy are rising.

39 HOLDING DOWN COSTS

40 SUPERGRID COSTS The estimated cost of a EUMENA-wide Supergrid: 45bn for 100 GW (20 x 5 GW). 5bn for 10 GW (2 x 5 GW) between North Africa and the UK. Divided amongst 30+ countries and spread over 10 years, average annual cost per country would be 150 million or less. For comparison: 132.5bn ( 90bn) is Gordon Brown's estimate of the cost of cleaning up the UK's nuclear legacy. 7.5bn ( 5.1bn) is the estimated cost of adding a new lane to the M1 motorway. 166bn (US$235bn) is the annual subsidy worldwide to fossil fuel industries (New Economics Foundation, 2004).

41 TRANS-CSP SCENARIO Year Transfer Capacity GW 2 x 5 8 x 5 14 x 5 20 x 5 Electricity Transfer TWh/y Capacity Factor Turnover Billion /y Land Area CSP 15 x x x x 50 km x km HVDC 3100 x x x x 1.0 Investment CSP Billion HVDC Elec. Cost CSP /kwh HVDC

42 WORLDWIDE POTENTIAL OF RENEWABLES Renewable energy technologies can provide 100 percent of the world s energy (not just electricity) and it is technically feasible to make the transition by See A path to sustainable energy by 2030 by Mark Z. Jacobson and Mark A. Delucchi in the November 2009 issue of Scientific American. Using renewables, total world demand for power in 2030 would be 11.5 terawatts compared with 16.9 terawatts with conventional sources of energy. In the JD scenario, wind supplies 51 percent of the demand worldwide, provided by 3.8 million large wind turbines. For comparison, the world manufactures 73 million cars and light trucks every year.

43 MATCHING VARIABLE DEMANDS WITH VARIABLE SUPPLIES The variability of sources such as wind power is much less of an issue than is sometimes suggested. See Managing Variability by independent consultant David Milborrow, July Electricity transmission networks in the UK are already designed to cope with unscheduled outages of power stations and variations in consumer demand. For a small additional cost, wind power could provide up to 40% of the UK's electricity and more is possible. There is a range of techniques for matching variable demands with variable supplies.

44 SECURITY OF ENERGY SUPPLIES The TRANS-CSP scenario provides greater security of electricity supplies than current systems: Less imported energy. CSP imports would be the exception (< 15% of European electricity supplies). Greater diversity of sources of electricity. CSP adds to that diversity. Plentiful supplies of clean electricity means greater energy security for everyone. Supergrid allows shortfalls in any area to be met from elsewhere. CSP plants are hard to disrupt and easy to repair. The transmission grid can be designed (like the internet) to be resilient in the face of damage or attack. There would be a buyers' market for solar electricity. It would be difficult to create a solar cartel and any such cartel would probably be selfdefeating.

45 ENDORSEMENTS (1) At the inaugural meeting of the Union for the Mediterranean in July 2008, Prime Minister Gordon Brown said:... in the Mediterranean region, concentrated solar power offers the prospect of an abundant low carbon energy source. Indeed, just as Britain's North Sea could be the Gulf of the future for offshore wind, so those sunnier countries represented here could become a vital source of future global energy by harnessing the power of the sun. So I am delighted that the EU is committing at this summit to work with its neighbours including Egypt, Jordan, Morocco and the League of Arab States to explore the development of a new 'Mediterranean Solar Plan' for the development and deployment of this vital technology from the Sahara northwards.

46 ENDORSEMENTS (2) 173 MPs have signed Early Day Motion 123 in support of the DESERTEC concept (rank 39 out of 2109 EDMs). The German government has formally endorsed the DESERTEC concept. The Dutch House of Representatives has voted 134 to 16 in favour of the DESERTEC concept. H.E Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, the President of the Republic of Tunisia, has endorsed the concept. Prince Hassan bin Talal of Jordan is a strong supporter of the concept. In the EUMENA region, CSP plants are being built in Spain, Italy, Morocco, Algeria, Egypt, and Israel. Other endorsements: Al Gore, Google Inc, Vinod Khosla, Hans-Gert Pöttering, The Climate Group, Forum for the Future,

47 WHAT GOVERNMENTS CAN DO Remove overt and hidden subsidies for established sources of power. Ensure that a proper price is paid for the environmental cost of CO 2 emissions. Create an appropriate international system of incentives. Create a single market for electricity throughout Europe (good) or EUMENA (better). Upgrade existing transmission grids and develop a EUMENA-wide HVDC supergrid.

48 THE DLR REPORTS ( ) The MED-CSP, TRANS-CSP and AQUA-CSP reports produced by the German Aerospace Center (DLR). They are the foundation of the Desertec concept. Show in detail, country by country, how Europe, the Middle East and North Africa (EUMENA) can: meet all needs for electricity. make deep cuts in CO 2 emissions. phase out nuclear power at the same time. Concentrating solar power (CSP) as one of several renewable sources of energy throughout EUMENA.

49 MINIMISING THE USE OF FRESH WATER Steam generation: Water is recycled. Avoid leaks. Use dish/engine systems or CPV. Cooling: Use dry cooling (best with power towers). Small loss of efficiency. Use dish/engine systems or CPV. Use sea water for cooling. Cleaning mirrors: Brushes. Damp cloths or sponges. Self-cleaning glass.

50 SOME MOTIVATIONS UK businesses and householders will welcome the opportunity to buy inexpensive clean power from deserts. DESERTEC is a bold plan that is likely to be popular with voters. CSP costs are falling while the costs of fossil fuels and nuclear power are rising. Global security: plentiful cheap power increases energy security for everyone. The technologies are all proven and available now. CSP plants are quick to build. Many opportunities for UK plc. DESERTEC can help meet targets for renewable energy and cuts in CO 2 emissions.

51 DESERTEC BENEFITS Plentiful, inexhaustible, inexpensive and carbon-free power for EUMENA and corresponding cuts in CO 2 emissions (mitigation). Alleviation of climate-change-induced shortages of water, food and usable land (adaptation). Jobs and earnings in large new industries throughout EUMENA. Large commercial opportunities for UK plc. Global security: By alleviating shortages of energy, water, food and usable land, CSP can reduce the risk of conflict over those resources. (cf Margaret Beckett s speeches). A win-win solar collaboration amongst countries of EUMENA can help to improve relations amongst different groups of people. (cf Nicolas Sarkozy s call for a new trans-mediterranean partnership ).

52 BENEFITS FOR THE UK With or without electricity imports into the UK: Cutting worldwide emissions of CO 2 (we are all at risk). Plentiful supplies of clean energy means, and increased diversity of supplies, means increased energy security for everyone. Holding down the price of electricity throughout EUMENA. Raising living standards in developing countries and reducing tensions from poverty and immigration. Business opportunities and jobs for "UK plc". Imports of electricity into the UK Physical and/or virtual imports of clean electricity. Kyoto credits and/or EU renewable energy credits.

53 SUGGESTED NEXT STEPS FOR THE UK GOVERNMENT Recognise the importance of the DESERTEC concept in cutting worldwide emissions of CO 2. Incorporate the DESERTEC concept in the UK's strategy for renewable energy. Establish a DESERTEC team within DECC to promote DESERTEC developments. Work with the UK s international partners to make the necessary reforms in laws and regulations.

54 WIND POWER 1 A network of land-based 2.5-megawatt (MW) turbines restricted to nonforested, ice-free, nonurban areas operating at as little as 20% of their rated capacity could supply more than 40 times current worldwide consumption of electricity and more than 5 times total global use of energy in all forms. There is additional potential in offshore wind farms. See Global potential for windgenerated electricity, Xi Lua, Michael B. McElroya, and Juha Kiviluomac, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, June 22,

55 WIND POWER 2 The "economically competitive potential" of wind power in Europe is 3 times projected demand for electricity in 2020 and 7 times projected demand in Offshore wind power alone could meet between 60% and 70% of projected demand for electricity in 2020 and about 80% of projected demand in See Europe's onshore and offshore wind energy potential, European Environment Agency,

56 Parabolic trough collector, Albuquerque

57 Sunset over solar collectors

58 DESERTEC AND STEEL Solar electricity may serve as a clean source of power for steel making. Solar heat may, in principle, be used for steel making R & D required. CSP-generated hydrogen may be used as a reducing agent in steel making R & D required CSP plants and HVDC transmission lines will need lots of steel. DESERTEC projects may qualify for CDM or other credits.

59 REDUCING UK DEMANDS FROM ENERGY-INTENSIVE APPLICATIONS, eg computer data centres

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62 HVDC SUPERGRID FEATURES HVDC grids are highly-efficient: losses are only about 3% per 1000 km. Electricity may be transmitted between North Africa and London with less than 10% loss of power. It is feasible and economic to transmit solar electricity for 3000 km or more. 90% of the world s population lives within 2700 km of a desert. HVDC grids do not replace existing HVAC grids, they complement them.

63 ASSESSING CSP COSTS AND BENEFITS Potential benefits include desalination of sea water and CSP horticulture. Fossil fuels are still heavily subsidised in many countries: this has to stop. Fossil fuels are still not paying a proper price for CO 2 emissions: this has to stop. Costs widely quoted for nuclear power are far too low and do not take account of several hidden subsidies. Feed-in tariffs or other kinds of support for renewable forms of energy are already available in many countries. Most CSP plants are hybrids: the fossil part is cheap to build but expensive to run; the solar part is more expensive to build but cheaper to run.

64 SARGENT & LUNDY 2003

65 JOBS AND EARNINGS Design and manufacture of CSP plants: Boilers, steam turbines, generators etc (same as ordinary power station). Solar collectors and heat stores. Building CSP plants using manufactured components (in the sun belt). Management and maintenance of CSP plants (in the sun belt). Design and manufacture of HVDC transmission lines and associated equipment. Installation and maintenance of HVDC transmission lines (throughout EUMENA).

66 GLOBAL SECURITY By alleviating shortages of energy, water, food and usable land, CSP can reduce the risk of conflict over those resources. A win-win solar collaboration amongst countries of Europe, the Middle East and North Africa can help to improve relations amongst different groups of people.

67 SECURITY OF TRANSMISSION HVDC Supergrid: Improves security: a shortfall in any one area can normally be met from one or more other areas. Can be designed to accommodate damage (like the internet). Airtricity propose laying HVDC cables under the sea.

68 EACH YEAR S DELAY MEANS STEEPER CUTS IN CO2 EMISSIONS S curve from 2012 Carbon emissions (MtC) Cumulative CO 2 emissions ~ 9% p.a. reduction Year

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72 DESERT POWER FOR THE UK?

73 TOO FAR? With low-loss HVDC transmission lines, it is feasible and economic to transmit electricity up to 3000 km or more. There may be less than 10% loss of power over the 2000 km between North Africa and the UK. Electricity may be "transferred" over long distances without actual transmission (see next).

74 TOO LONG TO WAIT? The UK can begin to benefit soon from CSP via longdistance "transfers" of electricity via the existing grid. We don't have to wait for the supergrid to be completed. CSP plants are relatively quick to build. As quantities increase, the grid may be upgraded by removing bottlenecks, by converting HVAC lines to HVDC, and by adding new HVDC lines and smart electronics. A large market for CSP will give confidence to investors, helping rapid expansion of the industry.

75 TOO INSECURE? The TRANS-CSP scenario provides greater security of electricity supplies than current systems: Less imported energy. CSP imports would be the exception (< 15% of European electricity supplies). Greater diversity of sources of electricity. CSP adds to that diversity. Supergrid allows shortfalls in any area to be met from elsewhere. Many countries have sunny deserts. CSP plants are hard to disrupt and easy to repair. The transmission grid can be designed (like the internet) to be resilient in the face of damage or attack. Plentiful supplies of clean electricity means greater security for everyone.

76 TOO COSTLY? Estimated cost of 100 GW supergrid is 45 billion (TRANS-CSP report). Shared amongst 30+ countries and spread over 10 years, this would be, on average, 150 million (or less) for each country, each year. CSP is likely to be one of the cheapest sources of electricity in Europe, including the cost of transmission (TRANS-CSP report). Studies show that supergrids are good value for money.

77 OPPORTUNITIES FOR "UK PLC" There are now over 40 CSP companies worldwide, including several with a UK base: Arxiel Ventures HelioDynamics Microsharp Corporation Limited Naanovo Energy Schott Solar Thermal Silicon CPV Whitfield Solar Transmission companies ABB UK Nexans Siemens UK Other: Steel, electronics, project management, finance, etc etc.

78 NREA Study Project TRANS-CSP Trans-Mediterranean Interconnection for Concentrating Solar Power (Introduction & Summary) Project for the Research & Development Programme of the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU)

79 50 Countries analysed within the MED-CSP and TRANS-CSP Studies Scandinavia Western Europe Eastern Europe South-Eastern Europe Western Asia North Africa Arabian Peninsula

80 Gross Electricity Demand in the Analysed Countries Gross Electricity Consumption TWh/y Historical Data Scenario TRANS-CSP Year Switzerland Norway Iceland Bosnia-Herzegowina Serbia & Montenegro Romania Macedonia Bulgaria Turkey Sweden Croatia Finland Greece Hungary Slowenia Slowac Republic Czech Republic Poland Italy Ireland United Kingdom Denmark Germany Netherlands Luxembourg Belgium Austria France Portugal Spain

81 TRANS-CSP: Electricity Generation in Europe Electricity [TWh/y] Year Import Solar Import Other Photovoltaics Wind Geothermal Hydropower Biomass Wave / Tidal CSP Plants Oil Gas Coal Nuclear 5 resources, mostly imported and limited 10 resources, mostly domestic and unlimited

82 Security and Redundancy of Power Supply in a Future TRANS-Mediterranean HVDC Grid

83 TRANS-CSP: CO 2 Emissions in Europe RUE Rational Use of Energy RES Renewable Energy Systems CCS Carbon Capture & Sequestration Avoided CO 2 is calculated with respect to a mix as in the year 2000 including nuclear power

84 Land Lost or Gained? Concentrating Solar Thermal Power Plants combined with Sea Water Desalination in Coastal Desert Areas Energy + Water + Income = AC Grid Sustainable economic development in arid regions HVDC Link (artist view created with Google Earth)

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90 TRANS-CSP: Investment for Least Cost Electricity Electricity Cost [c/kwh] 8,0 7,5 7,0 6,5 6,0 5,5 5,0 4,5 invest phase least cost phase TRANS-CSP Mix Mix 2000 Solar Import 4, Year Example Spain TRANS-CSP Mix: Energy Mix as described here incl. RUE, RES and CCS Mix 2000: Maintaining exactly the Power Mix like in the Year 2000 with CCS