Climate Scenarios Concepts, Content, Assumptions
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1 Climate Scenarios Concepts, Content, Assumptions Vice Chair, Research Domain Sustainable Solutions, Germany TCFD and BoE Conference on Climate Scenarios, Potsdam Financial Institute Risk and for Climate Strategic Impact Planning Research London, Oct 31 Nov 1, 2017 Research Domain Sustainable Solutions
2 Scenario Approach USE OF CLIMATE SCENARIOS
3 Use of (climate) scenarios Scenarios are NOT predictions or descriptions of most likely outcome! Scenarios are exploratory in nature (no business as usual, no single best-guess scenario) Mercator World Map, 1569 Scenarios explore consequences of action / inaction and implications of goals and limits Scenarios help us to organize and coordinate our thinking (society, politics, business, science) In a world of large uncertainty, with widly different scenarios, we may not able to hedge against all futures, but may have to choose
4 Scenario Typology TYPES OF CLIMATE SCENARIOS
5 Emissions and climate forcing scenarios Socio-economic scenarios Population growth Human development Economic development Urbanisation Technology Lifestyles Policies Energy use Land use Market developments Greenhouse gases Air pollutants Land use change Atmosphere changes Climate impact scenarios Agriculture & Food Health Water availability Ecosystems Floods, droughts, storms Sea level rise Economic damages Societal impacts Climate change projections Temperature Precipitation Glacier & Ice melting Extreme weather Earth tipping points
6 Scenario design KEY INPUTS AND ASSUMPTIONS
7 IAM scenario inputs and outputs INPUTS Socio economic drivers Energy System Land System OUTPUTS Energy use Land use Emissions Technology Investments Tech Deployment Policy Economic System Climate System Prices Macro-economic impacts Sustainable Development Links
8 Key Assumption: Socio-economic drivers Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) O Neill, Kriegler et al., Global Env. Change 42: , 2017
9 Economic cost of climate policy greatly depends on climate target and(!) shared socio economic pathway Riahi et al., Glob Env Change 42: , 2017
10 Key assumption: Technology availability and innovation Solar PV Energy storage CCS Bioenergy + CCS, Industry CCS Algae biofuels Hydrogen Synthetic carbon neutral fuels Carbon dioxide removal Carbon capture and use (chemicals, carbon fiber) Dietary changes Synthetic feed and meat Photo by Arni Saeberg : The Challenge of Mitigating Climate Change 10
11 Mitigation requires changes throughout the economy. Efforts in one sector determine mitigation efforts in others. No climate policy scenario 11 Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
12 Mitigation requires changes throughout the economy. Efforts in one sector determine mitigation efforts in others. 2 scenario with CCS 12 Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
13 Mitigation requires changes throughout the economy. Efforts in one sector determine mitigation efforts in others. 2 scenario without CCS 13 Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
14 Key Assumption: Policy 2 o C immediate action Riahi, Kriegler et al. (2015) Tech. For. & Soc. Change 90A: 8 23; AMPERE study
15 Delaying mitigation increases the difficulty and narrows the options for limiting warming to 2 C. 15 Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
16 Climate scenarios for the business sector WHAT IS NEEDED?
17 What is needed? What data? e.g. energy mix, new capacity additions, investments, carbon prices, land use What granularity? temporal, sectoral, technology, spatial What is needed to contextualize scenarios? Scenario meta-information What complexity and transparency? Standards, Selection, Documentation What process? Institutions, Interfaces, Interactions
18 Thank you for your attention DISCUSSION
19 IAM Resolution Time Resolution Annual to five year time steps, Spatial Resolution global regional national selected countries gridded (for some variables)
20 IAM Selected study topics ( present) INDC gap analyses, National & global pathway analysis Deep mitigation pathways (1.5 o C & well below 2 o C) Shared Socio Economic Pathways (SSPs) SD implications of climate policy (e.g. CD LINKS, TWI2050) (e.g. CD LINKS) Role of sectors and technologies (e.g. ADVANCE, EMF33)
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