Climate Change and Climate protection

Transcription

1 Climate Change and Climate protection Current state of Affaires Collapse of Wilkins ice shelf Feb Prof. Dr. Anders Levermann Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany Der Vortrag steht nicht zur Weitergabe zur Verfügung, darf nicht ohne Zustimmung des Referenten veröffentlicht werden (insbesondere im Internet) und es gilt das gesprochene Wort.

2 Climate Change and Climate Protection Current State of Affaires Prof. Dr. Anders Levermann, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Chief economist Prof. Edenhofer IPCC lead authors from all working groups Co-chair Sustainable solutions of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Scientific advice during G8+5 summit Scientific advice to German government Scientific advice to president of EU- commission Barroso

3 What we know for sure Temperatur trends of the last century

4 CO 2 is rising rapidly along with other greenhouse gases Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change 4 th Assessment Report (IPCC AR4, Feb. 2007)

5 Ocean acidification threatens marine food chain and coral reefs Plankton Coral reefs

6 1972: Sawyer Nature paper Temperature deviation ( C) 1990: 1 st IPCC Report 2007: 4 th IPCC Report (Nobel Peace Prize) 1979: National Academy Report Earth is warming warmest decade 1896: Arrhenius computes Climate Sensitivity Year 0.7 ± 0.1 o C increase in global mean temperature during last century

7 and continues to warm! IPCC 1990: Reasonable averaging period: years. ~0.17 C per decade

8 globally Wet regions get wetter dry regions get dryer

9 th September Arctic sea ice

10 th September Arctic sea ice

11 th September Arctic sea ice

12 Melting of Arctic summer sea ice Time series since

13 Mountain glaciers retreat globally New Zealand

14 Rise above year 1880 (cm) Sea level is rising and will continue to rise for centuries Last century: cm 3.1 mm/year 0.8 mm/year 1.6 mm/year Tide gauge: Church & White 2006 Satellites: Cazenave et al. 2008

15 Meinshausen et al., Rapid future warming Business-as-usual 5 degrees: Transition between ice age and interglacial naturally takes 5000 years.

16 Things that might happen Risks in a warming world

17 Extreme Weather Generally single events can not be attributed to climate change, but... atmospheric warming means more water vapor which likely yields more extreme weather conditions.

18 Intensification of tropical storms Vince Delta Physical reasoning supported by observations

19 Tipping elements particularly sensitive to climate change Marine carbon cycle Amazon vegetation Greenland ice sheet Deep water formation Sahara Arctic sea ice melting Arctic ozone depletion Nutritious dust supply Methane outgasing Himalaya snow cover Indian monsoon El Niño Southern Oscillation West Antarctic ice sheet Deep water formation & Nutrient supply Antarctic ozone whole

20 What is missing? Big Ice Sheets Both loosing ice. Antarctica West Antarctica: 5 m East Antarctica: 50 m Bamber et al., 2008 Greenland Potential sea level rise: 7 m

21 Two future pathways The world s challenge The Challenge one we can not adapt to and one we can. Meinshausen et al., 2009.

22 CO 2 -Budget ( ) 2/3 Chance to stay below 2 C means: Gobal CO 2 -budget of ~1 trillion tons : 33% : 67% At same consumption budget exhausted in 2030.

23 (Meinshausen et al. 2009) Global fossil CO 2 emissions (Gt/year) Our race against time Peak 2020 Peak % in 2050 CO 2 Budget : 750 Gt Jahr

24 Can we solve it only by Carbon Capture and Storage? Below-two-degrees scenario 2050: < 0.1 t per person per year of negative emission Without mitigation: 2050: ~ 2 t per person each year 2100: > 3 t per person each year Future scenarios Representative Concentration Pathways Business-as-usual Below-two-degrees Schewe, Levermann, Meinshausen, 2010.

25 Can we solve it with Nuclear energy, only? Currently, nuclear energy provide 19% of world s electricity consumption. Electricity demand is increasing. kt Uranium / year Nuclear fuel Demand Uranium is a limited resource Extraction - 40% difference in 2005 Thus plutonium & fast breeder would be required. Plutonium bears weapon potential.

26 Thank you for your attention! Avoid Avoid the the unmanagable. Adapt Adapt to to the the unavoidable. Prof. Dr. Anders Levermann, Potsdam Institut for Climate Impact Research, Germany