Scenarios for peak oil faced with the global systemic crisis. Jean-Luc Wingert 28th of April 2011 ASPO Brussels

Transcription

1 Scenarios for peak oil faced with the global systemic crisis Jean-Luc Wingert 28th of April 2011 ASPO Brussels

2 Introduction Energy crisis or Energy transition? A break after 2 centuries of cheap and abundant energy supply : coal, oil, natural gas Page 2

3 Simplified peak oil mechanism 30 Billion of barils per year Peak oil Depletion 1st half «easy» production 2nd half complicated production Year Production = Consumption (worldwide) Page 3

4 Peak oil When will the peak of world oil production come? «Peak, plateau, bumpy plateau» What decline rate after the peak? Page 4

5 Peak oil without economic constraints Page 5

6 Peak oil, peak gas and peak coal Production and forecast of fossil energy (without constraints on demand) 40 Tous liquides Gb 5,6 35 U=3Tb Brut - pétrole Xlourd 4,9 Production per year in Gboe U = 2.1 Tb Charbon Gboe U=750 Gtoe=5.4 Tboe Gaz naturel Gboe U = 13 Pcf = 2.2 Tboe 4,2 3,5 2,8 2,1 1,4 production per year in Gtoe 5 0,7 Jean Laherrere Année Page 6

7 Energy revolution A new energy revolution Mastering fire ( years ago) Agriculture (6000 years ago) Industrial revolution (2 1/2 centuries ago) Page 7

8 Energy services Main solutions Energy efficiency - Transportation - Building (new and existing) - Industry - Energy Savings Develop renewable energies Page 8

9 Scenarios The mysterious future price of oil 4 scenarios : - Bumpy plateau - Systemic collapse with standard recovery - Systemic collapse followed by endless disagreements - Energy efficiency Page 9

10 Facts Page 10

11 Scenarios Scenario 1 : Bumpy plateau Successive phases of increase/reduce production A classical model (Mentioned by Jean Laherrère in 2001) Page 11

12 Scenario Scenario 1 : Bumpy plateau Succession of production increase and decrease A classical model (Mentioned by Jean Laherrère in 2001) Page 12

13 Scenarios Scenario 2 : Systemic collapse with standard recovery The next oil crisis is too strong for the financial and monetary system (National debts too heavy, disappears, no trust in the $...) No consensus about what to do (back to old business or new rules) Finally back to old rules a little bit improved for a small decade of oil production increase, knowing the oil problem has just been postponed Page 13

14 Scenario Scenario 2 : Systemic collapse with standard recovery Page 14

15 Scenarios Scenario 3 : Systemic collapse followed by endless disagreements The next oil crisis is too strong for the financial and monetary system (National debts too heavy, disappears, no trust in the $...) Deflation starts, no consensus about what to do : back to old business or new rules (unemployment becomes a urging problem) Everybody gets radical : conservatives want to go back to old values (risk of fascist tendencies), the left wing is lost, the ultra left gets radical (risk of totalitarianism), the greens are seduced by deep ecology Page 15

16 Scenario Scenario 3 : Systemic collapse followed by endless disagreements Page 16

17 Scenarios Scenario 4 : Energy efficiency General agreement on cooperation and necessity to address energy problems, environmental problems and unemployment problems. The energy transition is very job intensive (building insulation, renewable energy, less mechanised work, services ) New rules : sustainable development integrated in legislation, huge investments in social work, education and health Page 17

18 Scenario Scenario 4 : Energy efficiency Page 18

19 Conclusion The 4th oil crisis, when ever it comes, is likely to be the end of energy illusions for the majority of reasonable people Close to production capacity limits, even small delivery disruptions have big impacts on prices (Arab revolutions, crazy dictator ) : be prepared for high oil prices volatility (with an increasing trend) There is no consensus on a new development model, this can lead to severe political fights. Rethinking deep values (like work ) can lead to some kinds of civil war if people still care about their (grandchildren's) future. We need to focus on energy efficiency, energy savings but also employment : the energy transition is the kind of new deal we need Page 19

20 Thank you Page 20

21 Jean-Luc Wingert Page 21