Transitioning New Zealand to Renewable Energy EEA Conference and Exhibition, June 2017, Wellington, NZ
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1 Transitioning New Zealand to Renewable Energy EEA Conference and Exhibition, June 2017, Wellington, NZ Ian Mason 2, Harry Gates 1, Henna Chua 1 & Allan Miller 1 1 Electric Power Engineering Centre, 2 Department of Civil and Natural Resources Engineering, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand
2 Overview Introduction Methods Renewable electricity, bioenergy, fuel prices Discussion Conclusions Electric Power Engineering Centre 2
3 Electric Power Engineering Centre 3 Our emissions profile GHG emissions by sector (2013) Energy sector emissions (2013)
4 Electric Power Engineering Centre 4 Our Paris Commitment NEW ZEALAND Submission under the Paris Agreement New Zealand s Nationally Determined Contribution New Zealand hereby communicates its nationally determined contribution under the Paris Agreement. New Zealand commits to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 30% below 2005 levels by To be met through a mix of domestic emission reductions, the removal of carbon dioxide by forests, and participation in international carbon markets.
5 Required GHG Removal Gross CO 2-e emissions BAU gross** 65.8 MT 83.7 MT 81.7 MT 88.9 MT Removal 30.3 MT ( ) 11% below MT 30% below 2005* *New Zealand Submission under the Paris Agreement: New Zealand s Nationally Determined Contribution ( ) **From: Modelling the economic impact of New Zealand s post-2020 climate change contribution, Adam Daigneault, Landcare Research, prepared for Ministry for Primary Industries & Ministry for the Environment, May 2015 GREEN Grid 5
6 Research objectives To quantify the additional renewable electricity needed to displace remaining fossil fuels from the energy sector To estimate the associated reduction in GHG emissions To evaluate the potential competition from bioenergy, forestry and carbon credits Electric Power Engineering Centre 6
7 Methods Delivered energy data was obtained from MBIE and EECA for the calendar year of 2014 Energy use was categorised from EECA s energy database Delivered energy is the heat content of the energy carrier as delivered to the site where it is used End use energy is the energy available for use after the conversion of delivered energy Electric Power Engineering Centre 7
8 Methods - Additional Electricity Requirements Electric Power Engineering Centre 8 The non-renewable fuels considered were coal, natural gas, aviation fuel/kerosene, LPG, fuel oil, diesel, and petrol 1. End use energy was calculated by applying process efficiencies to the delivered energy values for fossil fuels 2. Required delivered electric energy was determined by back calculation using efficiencies for electric technology Example: Light vehicle DE (petrol) = 28,890 GWh/year EUE = 0.22*28,890 = 6356 GWh/year DE (electricity) = 6356/0.82 = 7751 GWh/year
9 Electric Power Engineering Centre 9 Methods Table of Efficiencies
10 Methods Estimating CO 2 -e Reductions CO 2 -e reductions were estimated using the MFE s Volunteer Corporate Greenhouse Gas Reporting document. Energy density or specific energy values were chosen to represent typical fossil fuel characteristics Electric Power Engineering Centre 10
11 Methods Bioenergy A net calorific value (NCV) of 4.39 MWh/tonne was calculated for clean softwood chip at 10% moisture Industry sourced values for Pinus Radiata were 4.14 MWh/tonne at 20% moisture and 2.35 MWh/tonne at 50% A 29 year forestry rotation and a whole tree yield of 426 tonne of dry matter per hectare were assumed for P. Radiata Electric Power Engineering Centre 11
12 Electric Power Engineering Centre 12 Renewable Electricity Short- Medium Term Scenario. Excludes: Aviation, Shipping, Heavy Vehicles Includes: Heat Pumps < 100 o C Delivered energy Reduction* 54% Emissions Reduction 25.4 Mt *Excl: T&D
13 Bioenergy All process heat, water heating and space heating requirements using wood chips: Delivered energy 39,173 GWh/y Annual harvesting of 18,550 ha (P. Radiata); allocation of 31% of NZ s plantation forestry Electric Power Engineering Centre 13
14 Fuel costs Application Fuel Cost Comments Transport Heat via boiler systems Heat via heat pumps Petrol Electricity Electricity Petrol Electricity Electricity Wood chips Electricity Electricity Purchase Units End-use Units a 14 b e 14 f 8 g Electricity 14 8 c/l c/l $/GJ(NCV) Electric Power Engineering Centre c/100 km c/100 km c/100 km Eff Eff Eff l/100 km c 5.5 km/kwh d 5.5 km/kwh d Eff Eff Eff COP 3.0 Notes: a full rate; b night rate; c Toyota Corolla (81 kw); d Nissan Leaf (80 kw); e mid-range [16]; f commercial rate; g industrial rate;
15 Discussion Additional renewable electricity: In the pipeline => 15,000 GWh/y; plus 26,580 GWh/y Latter requires: GW of wind Build rate: MW/y over next decade Immediate focus: Heat pumps esp. water-source Better thermal envelopes; BEVs Ongoing focus: Full life cycle analyses Electric Power Engineering Centre 15
16 Discussion Bioenergy: Important contribution for medium-high grade process heat Other demands on the resource: Fischer-Tropsch fuels, non-energy crops, ecosystem services, carbon sink Insufficient to fully replace fossil-fuels Bio-sequestration forestry on erosion-prone land: Could achieve 2030 target if 23.1 t CO 2 /ha.y Planting rate: 131,200 ha/y over next decade Electric Power Engineering Centre 16
17 Electric Power Engineering Centre 17 Discussion Carbon credits: High degree of risk; credibility? Offsetting paying a poor person to diet for us Dr. Kevin Anderson, Professor of Energy and Climate Change, University of Manchester
18 Electric Power Engineering Centre 18 Conclusions Sector used 130,225 GWh fossil-fuel energy in 2014 Short-medium term scenario: 84,895 GWh/y replaceable with 41,620 GWh/y new renewable electricity GHG removal: 25.4 Mt; 85.5% of 2030 target Bioenergy insufficient but important for medium/high-grade heat Bio-sequestration: could meet 2030 target Rapid build/planting programmes required Focus: Heat pumps; efficiency; BEVs; full life-cycle costings Major opportunity for the electricity industry!
19 PROFESSIONAL AFFILIATES Thank you to our industry members of the Power Engineering Excellence Trust
20 Electric Power Engineering Centre 20 Additional Acknowledgements University of Canterbury; EPECentre; Andrew Renton (Transpower); Vince Smart (EECA)
21 References/Images Electric Power Engineering Centre 21
22 Electric Power Engineering Centre 22 ANY QUESTIONS
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